The Minnesota Lynx met their 1st goal for 2013, clinching home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Considering the Lynx are 15-2 at home and 11-6 on the road--and considering the L.A. Sparks are also 15-2 at home and just 9-8 on the road, and considering that Chicago is 14-3 and 10-7--home court advantage is not window dressing.
A reasonable conclusion, without getting into the number crunching too deeply, is that the home court advantage at least doubles the Lynx' likelihood of winning their 2nd WNBA title in 3 years. They can do it without ever winning a road game.
And they finished strong, winning 8 of their last 9, including 7 in a row before a 1-point loss at L.A. and a finishing 79-66 homecourt win over the East Division champion Chicago Sky.
At the beginning of the season I said that the Lynx' chances of winning the WNBA title would ride with Maya Moore, now in her 3rd year and ready now to play like a WNBA MVP. And, indeed, she's done that. She is now listed on the WNBA Web site as 1 of 5 MVP candidates--along with Elena Delle Donna of Chicago, Angel McCoughtrey of Atlanta, Candace Parker of L.A. and Diana Taurasi of Phoenix.
Moore increased her scoring by 2 points per game to more than 18, 3rd best in the league, mostly by virtue of her deadly 3-point shooting. She leads the league, making 50 percent of her attempts. She is now perceived as being the Lynx' best player, a perception that last year at this time leaned toward Seimone Augustus. Moore has been player of the week several times, and her 35 points against Indiana are the most by any WNBA player this year.
But, somebody is quoted on the WNBA Web site saying that Maya is now the "focal point" of the Lynx, and this perception is somewhat flawed. Moore played every game for the Lynx while Augustus missed 3 games with injury. On a per game basis, Augustus took just as many shots as Moore did, and Augustus shot .516 to Moore's .509. The difference, of course, is those 3s. But Seimone's scoring average is the same as a year ago, surprisingly.
There's also been no slippage in Lindsey Whalen's game, which I had erroneously predicted. I mean, she's 31 years old. But her scoring average increased more than Moore's, from 11+ to 14+. Her shooting percentage dropped from 50 to 48 percent, but her assists increased from 5.4 to 5.8.
Put it all together and the Lynx look a bit tougher than a year ago, which is a good thing because a year ago they weren't quite tough enough.
First Round Match-Ups
Minnesota 26-8 vs. Seatttle 17-17
Seattle might have a very slight advantage inside with Tina Thompson but, seriously, that would be very slight and Minnesota has the advantageLynx sweep. at the other 4 positions. That's why the Lynx swept the season series 4-0 by an average of 79-62.
L.A. 24-10 vs. Phoenix 19-15
We keep waiting for some kind of explosion from Phoenix, but it hasn't happened yet. Meanwhile L.A. boasts one of he WNBA's top talents in Candace Parker and a solid supporting cast. Of course, Phoenix boasts one of the WNBA's top talents in Diana Taurasi, but the supporting cast is not quite as ready for the playoffs. L.A. in 3.
Chicago 24-10 vs. Indiana 16-18
This could be interesting. Indiana cranking it up a notch at playoff time a year ago to win a surprising WNBA title. Chicago presents a formidable obstacle, but is Elene Delle Donna 100 percent? She suffered a concussion late in the year and was subpar vs. Minnesota in the regular season finale. Indiana in 3.
Atlanta 17-17 vs. Washington 17-17
Angel McCoughtrey should be the difference here. Atlanta in 3.
Showing posts with label Lynx. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lynx. Show all posts
Monday, September 16, 2013
Sunday, July 28, 2013
The Lynx at Half Way
You probably don't remember that I picked the Lynx to finish 2nd to the L.A. Sparks in the West and to lose to the Sparks in the division semis.
It's too early to say I'm wrong, but the Lynx have just had 1 hell of a 1st half to their season, winning 14 of 17 games, 1 more than at this time in both 2011, when they won the WNBA title, and in 2012, when they didn't.
And the Lynx are not just 1, not just 2 games better than L.A. at this point, they're 2-and-a-half better, 3 in the loss column. They're 2 ahead of the 2nd best team in the league, which right now is the Chicago Sky at 12-5.
So the Lynx and L.A. aren't the only or even the major surprises in the WNBA so far. Almost everybody is a surprise, beginning with Rookie of the Year candidates Brittney Griner and Ellena Della Donna. Griner, the favorite initially, is now running a distant 2nd to Della Donna in the Rookie race. And not only that, Della Donna, who is scoring a league 3rd best 18 ppg, has led the Sky to that gaudy 12-5 record, compared to last year's 14-20, good for 5th in the East and a seat on the outside looking in at the post-season.
Griner, meanhile, is scoring 14 ppg and Phoenix is off to a shocking 9-9 start, despite the fact that Diana Taurasi is leading the league in scoring at 22 ppg in her return from an injury that kept her out of play a year ago. (I had them 23-11, just 1 game behind the Lynx.)
Also surprising, in the East, are Connecticut and Indiana, whom I had had 1st and 2nd. They're 4th and 6th. Indiana is after all the WNBA champion but are 8-9 at the halfway point. Connecticut is a shocking 6-12 despite Tina Charles having yet another MVP caliber season at 18 points and 9 boards.
But the biggest surprise is L.A. Of course, they're 12-6, just a half-game short of the 2nd best record in the league, so I guess they're doin' OK. I mean, they gave the Lynx 2 of their 3 losses, and they were routs, 87-59 and 96-66. But they lost almost as big at Minnesota, 88-64. They're just 8-5 vs. the West. In 2 of their last 3 games before the All-Star break, they lost to Phoenix and Seattle at home.
And that brings us to the Lynx. They're playin' great.
Maya Moore leads the team in scoring, as I said she would, with 16 ppg. I said on the other hand that Lindsey Whalen's game might begin to slip at age 31. Quite the opposite. Her scoring average is way up to 16 ppg, she's averaging 5 assists and she's shooting 49 percent. Seimone Augustus' scoring average has dropped to 15 ppg, but she's shooting 52 percent. Rebekah Brunson hasn't slipped a white, averaging 10 points and 9 boards. And Monica Wright has become the super-sub that Candace Wiggins used to be.
And so the primary goal of the 2nd half of the season would seem to be quite achievable. Hold the home court for the playoffs. Of course that didn't guarantee success a year ago and it doesn't guarantee success in 2013. Still, would you rather have the home ice against L.A. (average score 88-64) or play 'em on the road (average score 62-92)?
I would have said the same thing a year ago, but I'll say it again anyway. The Sparks are the only team that stands in the way of the Lynx and another WNBA title. What if the 2 played on a neutral court?
As a team, the Lynx are out-scoring their opponents 83-74. The Sparks are out-scoring theirs 83-75. One for the Lynx.
The Lynx are out-shooting their opponents 46 percent to 40, the Sparks 47-41. One for L.A.
The Lynx are out-rebounded their opponents by a whopping 39-33.5. L.A. is even at 34-all. Another one for the Lynx.
And the Lynx are turning the ball over 12 times per game, their opponents 14. L.A. is averaging 14 turnovers, their opponents 16. So that's a draw.
In the post, L.A. has a big advantage with Candace Parker. At the small forward, the Lynx have the advantage with Maya Moore. At the point, I'll take Lindsey over former Lynx Lindsey Harding. Each has 5 assists per game, but Whalen is out-scoring Harding 16-12 and out-shooting her 49 percent to 46. At the off guard it's Seimone over Kristi Tolliver though her scoring edge is just 15-14 and both are all-stars. But Seimone is shooting 52 percent and Tolliver 47.
At the big forward again there's a pair of all-stars in Brunson (10 points 9 boards 47 percent) and Nneka Ogumwike (14 points 7 boards 58 percent). Gotta be Nneka.
But a slight edge at the 2 guards and a big edge in Maya Moore means the Lynx win on a neutral court. But, of course, they won't be playing on a neutral court, the Lynx will have the home court advantage.
But that brings us to Maya Moore. She leads the Lynx in scoring. She led the 4 Lynx in the all-star game with 14 (Seimone had 12 Brunson 11 and Lindsey 8). But in the last 3 games before the all-star game she didn't score more than 14 points. In 3 games against L.A. she's scored 21 points on 8-of-27 shooting.
I said in my pre-season post that Maya Moore was the key to the Lynx contending, much less winning, the 2014 WNBA title. I still think that's so. They'll need a more consistent performance from Maya. In the meantime, of course, it doesn't hurt that Lindsey, Rebekah and Seimone are also playing like all-stars.
Revised Playoff Forecast
Eastern Division
#1 Atlanta 2 Washington 0
#2 Chicago 2 Indiana 1
Atlanta 2 Chicago 1. Chicago's chances rest entirely on Elena Della Donna's successful recovery from a concussion suffering in the final game before the all-star break.
Western Division
Minnesota 2 San Antonio 0
L.A. 2 Phoenix 0
Minnesota 2 L.A. 1. Minnesota's win depends on maintaining the home court advantage over the Sparks.
Finals
Minnesota 3 Atlanta 1. Minnesota's win depends on Maya Moore playing like the Maya Moore of the Olympics and the all-star game, and not the Maya Moore who seems to defer to Seimone as a Lynx.
It's too early to say I'm wrong, but the Lynx have just had 1 hell of a 1st half to their season, winning 14 of 17 games, 1 more than at this time in both 2011, when they won the WNBA title, and in 2012, when they didn't.
And the Lynx are not just 1, not just 2 games better than L.A. at this point, they're 2-and-a-half better, 3 in the loss column. They're 2 ahead of the 2nd best team in the league, which right now is the Chicago Sky at 12-5.
So the Lynx and L.A. aren't the only or even the major surprises in the WNBA so far. Almost everybody is a surprise, beginning with Rookie of the Year candidates Brittney Griner and Ellena Della Donna. Griner, the favorite initially, is now running a distant 2nd to Della Donna in the Rookie race. And not only that, Della Donna, who is scoring a league 3rd best 18 ppg, has led the Sky to that gaudy 12-5 record, compared to last year's 14-20, good for 5th in the East and a seat on the outside looking in at the post-season.
Griner, meanhile, is scoring 14 ppg and Phoenix is off to a shocking 9-9 start, despite the fact that Diana Taurasi is leading the league in scoring at 22 ppg in her return from an injury that kept her out of play a year ago. (I had them 23-11, just 1 game behind the Lynx.)
Also surprising, in the East, are Connecticut and Indiana, whom I had had 1st and 2nd. They're 4th and 6th. Indiana is after all the WNBA champion but are 8-9 at the halfway point. Connecticut is a shocking 6-12 despite Tina Charles having yet another MVP caliber season at 18 points and 9 boards.
But the biggest surprise is L.A. Of course, they're 12-6, just a half-game short of the 2nd best record in the league, so I guess they're doin' OK. I mean, they gave the Lynx 2 of their 3 losses, and they were routs, 87-59 and 96-66. But they lost almost as big at Minnesota, 88-64. They're just 8-5 vs. the West. In 2 of their last 3 games before the All-Star break, they lost to Phoenix and Seattle at home.
And that brings us to the Lynx. They're playin' great.
Maya Moore leads the team in scoring, as I said she would, with 16 ppg. I said on the other hand that Lindsey Whalen's game might begin to slip at age 31. Quite the opposite. Her scoring average is way up to 16 ppg, she's averaging 5 assists and she's shooting 49 percent. Seimone Augustus' scoring average has dropped to 15 ppg, but she's shooting 52 percent. Rebekah Brunson hasn't slipped a white, averaging 10 points and 9 boards. And Monica Wright has become the super-sub that Candace Wiggins used to be.
And so the primary goal of the 2nd half of the season would seem to be quite achievable. Hold the home court for the playoffs. Of course that didn't guarantee success a year ago and it doesn't guarantee success in 2013. Still, would you rather have the home ice against L.A. (average score 88-64) or play 'em on the road (average score 62-92)?
I would have said the same thing a year ago, but I'll say it again anyway. The Sparks are the only team that stands in the way of the Lynx and another WNBA title. What if the 2 played on a neutral court?
As a team, the Lynx are out-scoring their opponents 83-74. The Sparks are out-scoring theirs 83-75. One for the Lynx.
The Lynx are out-shooting their opponents 46 percent to 40, the Sparks 47-41. One for L.A.
The Lynx are out-rebounded their opponents by a whopping 39-33.5. L.A. is even at 34-all. Another one for the Lynx.
And the Lynx are turning the ball over 12 times per game, their opponents 14. L.A. is averaging 14 turnovers, their opponents 16. So that's a draw.
In the post, L.A. has a big advantage with Candace Parker. At the small forward, the Lynx have the advantage with Maya Moore. At the point, I'll take Lindsey over former Lynx Lindsey Harding. Each has 5 assists per game, but Whalen is out-scoring Harding 16-12 and out-shooting her 49 percent to 46. At the off guard it's Seimone over Kristi Tolliver though her scoring edge is just 15-14 and both are all-stars. But Seimone is shooting 52 percent and Tolliver 47.
At the big forward again there's a pair of all-stars in Brunson (10 points 9 boards 47 percent) and Nneka Ogumwike (14 points 7 boards 58 percent). Gotta be Nneka.
But a slight edge at the 2 guards and a big edge in Maya Moore means the Lynx win on a neutral court. But, of course, they won't be playing on a neutral court, the Lynx will have the home court advantage.
But that brings us to Maya Moore. She leads the Lynx in scoring. She led the 4 Lynx in the all-star game with 14 (Seimone had 12 Brunson 11 and Lindsey 8). But in the last 3 games before the all-star game she didn't score more than 14 points. In 3 games against L.A. she's scored 21 points on 8-of-27 shooting.
I said in my pre-season post that Maya Moore was the key to the Lynx contending, much less winning, the 2014 WNBA title. I still think that's so. They'll need a more consistent performance from Maya. In the meantime, of course, it doesn't hurt that Lindsey, Rebekah and Seimone are also playing like all-stars.
Revised Playoff Forecast
Eastern Division
#1 Atlanta 2 Washington 0
#2 Chicago 2 Indiana 1
Atlanta 2 Chicago 1. Chicago's chances rest entirely on Elena Della Donna's successful recovery from a concussion suffering in the final game before the all-star break.
Western Division
Minnesota 2 San Antonio 0
L.A. 2 Phoenix 0
Minnesota 2 L.A. 1. Minnesota's win depends on maintaining the home court advantage over the Sparks.
Finals
Minnesota 3 Atlanta 1. Minnesota's win depends on Maya Moore playing like the Maya Moore of the Olympics and the all-star game, and not the Maya Moore who seems to defer to Seimone as a Lynx.
Monday, June 24, 2013
Lynx outlast Shock 88-79
The Minnesota Lynx played just well enough to defeat the rapidly improving Tulsa Shock 88-79 Sunday night at Target Center. The Shock led early 20-12, stayed close through 38-38 and 40-42 late in the 1st half, but the Lynx scored the last 7 points of the half--Monica Wright hit a j from Lindsay Whalen, Whalen a driving layup from Wright, and Maya Moore a dagger 3 after a steal and assist by Wright--to create some separation.
Minnesota slowly pulled away in the 2nd half, taking their 1st double digit lead when Seimone Augustus hit the 1st 2 points of the half, her 15th and 16th points of the game to that point. The 1st 12 point lead came on a pair of Augustus throws at 2:43, the 1st 14 point lead on another Moore 3, this time from Whalen and this time with just 4 seconds remaining in the 3rd. The largest lead was at 82-67 at 4:27 of the 4th on a Wright steal and breakaway layup.
It was a well-rounded team effort. Seimone and Maya each scored 22 points, Whalen had 19 with 9 assists, Rebekah Brunson 11 with 11 boards. The main images of the game are Whalen running the show, scoring, dishing, basically taking Skylar Diggins to school, and Augustus and Moore hitting the j. The latter 2 shot 16-of-25 between them and the average FG, it seemed, came from about 18 feet. Both were deadly from long range. Seimone, in particular, doesn't need more than a tiny little bit of space to get off that beautiful j of hers, and she could hardly miss last night.
In the end the Lynx shot 53 percent, Tulsa 42. End of story.
Well, that and the other image on the night was a whole series of wide open looks from the perimeter for Tulsa. The Lynx remain a well-oiled machine on the offensive end. The defense was not good, certainly not in the 1st half. The Lynx are now 6-2 and in 1st place in the West (2nd overall). But in their 2 losses they've given up an average of 86 points and 48 percent shooting. Last night it was 79 and 42, and did I mention they did not look good on defense?
2nd year big forward Glory Johnson, in particular, took Janelle McCarville outside and scored 24 points on 9-of-15 FG, mostly from long range (long 2s). Rarely was a defender anywhere nearby. Candace Wiggins got some open looks against her former team, hitting 5-of-8 for 14 points.
But Whalen and company did a nice job of neutralizing Diggins. Whalen, you may recall, scored 19. Diggins scored 9 on 2-of-8 shooting. Her quickness didn't buy her much, while Lindsay used her strength to beat up Diggins in the paint on both ends of the court.
Season Recap
So the Lynx are 6-2 and in 1st place in the West. In the West they've beaten Phoenix and Brittney Greiner twice, and San Antone once. On the other hand, they lost big at L.A. 87-59 Friday night and they're 2-2 on the road. They're outscoring the opposition 83-77 compared to 86-76 a year ago. And last year they out-shot their opponents 47 percent to 41. This year it's just 44-41 to this point.
Maya Moore would seem to be stepping it up. She has raised her scoring by about 2.5 ppg. She's taking about 1 extra shot per game, though her shooting percentage has dropped from .465 to .455. The fact is the extra offense is all Maya getting to the FT line. The good news is the extra offense from Maya hasn't affected Seimone, who is scoring pretty much the same as last year on fewer shots. In fact she has raised her shooting percentage from 49 to 52 percent. The 2 of them together are making 13-of-28 shots per game so far this year versus 13-of-27 a year ago.
Meanwhile Lindsay has actually upped her average from 11.5 to 13, though her shooting percentage is down from .505 to 44 percent. Brunson is average 4-of-9 shots per game, the same as last year. Monica Wright is hitting 3-of-8 versus 3-of-7 a year ago, but Janelle McCarville is hitting 2-of-4 shots per game whereas Taj Franklin-McWilliams made 4-of-7 a year ago.
But wait. The bench (not counting 6th player Monica Wright) is also less productive at 11 ppg on 33 percent shooting versus 17 and 42 percent a year ago. Amber Harris has increased her production marginally, while Devereaux Peters' has fallen a bunch. Rookies Sugar Rogers, Lindsay Moore and Rachel Jarry are making 1 FG per game among them, whereas Wiggins, Jessica Adair and Erin Thorn averaged 4 FG per game a year ago.
So longer term it seems that the Lynx, more than anything, need their experienced bench (Wright, Harris, Peters) to step up. Overall, while it was the D that looked a little shaky last, overall, It's the offense that needs to com together. Everybody but Seimone could be shooting a little better. The difference between a 47 and a 44 percent shooting percentage is probably the difference between 1st and 3rd in the West.
Minnesota slowly pulled away in the 2nd half, taking their 1st double digit lead when Seimone Augustus hit the 1st 2 points of the half, her 15th and 16th points of the game to that point. The 1st 12 point lead came on a pair of Augustus throws at 2:43, the 1st 14 point lead on another Moore 3, this time from Whalen and this time with just 4 seconds remaining in the 3rd. The largest lead was at 82-67 at 4:27 of the 4th on a Wright steal and breakaway layup.
It was a well-rounded team effort. Seimone and Maya each scored 22 points, Whalen had 19 with 9 assists, Rebekah Brunson 11 with 11 boards. The main images of the game are Whalen running the show, scoring, dishing, basically taking Skylar Diggins to school, and Augustus and Moore hitting the j. The latter 2 shot 16-of-25 between them and the average FG, it seemed, came from about 18 feet. Both were deadly from long range. Seimone, in particular, doesn't need more than a tiny little bit of space to get off that beautiful j of hers, and she could hardly miss last night.
In the end the Lynx shot 53 percent, Tulsa 42. End of story.
Well, that and the other image on the night was a whole series of wide open looks from the perimeter for Tulsa. The Lynx remain a well-oiled machine on the offensive end. The defense was not good, certainly not in the 1st half. The Lynx are now 6-2 and in 1st place in the West (2nd overall). But in their 2 losses they've given up an average of 86 points and 48 percent shooting. Last night it was 79 and 42, and did I mention they did not look good on defense?
2nd year big forward Glory Johnson, in particular, took Janelle McCarville outside and scored 24 points on 9-of-15 FG, mostly from long range (long 2s). Rarely was a defender anywhere nearby. Candace Wiggins got some open looks against her former team, hitting 5-of-8 for 14 points.
But Whalen and company did a nice job of neutralizing Diggins. Whalen, you may recall, scored 19. Diggins scored 9 on 2-of-8 shooting. Her quickness didn't buy her much, while Lindsay used her strength to beat up Diggins in the paint on both ends of the court.
Season Recap
So the Lynx are 6-2 and in 1st place in the West. In the West they've beaten Phoenix and Brittney Greiner twice, and San Antone once. On the other hand, they lost big at L.A. 87-59 Friday night and they're 2-2 on the road. They're outscoring the opposition 83-77 compared to 86-76 a year ago. And last year they out-shot their opponents 47 percent to 41. This year it's just 44-41 to this point.
Maya Moore would seem to be stepping it up. She has raised her scoring by about 2.5 ppg. She's taking about 1 extra shot per game, though her shooting percentage has dropped from .465 to .455. The fact is the extra offense is all Maya getting to the FT line. The good news is the extra offense from Maya hasn't affected Seimone, who is scoring pretty much the same as last year on fewer shots. In fact she has raised her shooting percentage from 49 to 52 percent. The 2 of them together are making 13-of-28 shots per game so far this year versus 13-of-27 a year ago.
Meanwhile Lindsay has actually upped her average from 11.5 to 13, though her shooting percentage is down from .505 to 44 percent. Brunson is average 4-of-9 shots per game, the same as last year. Monica Wright is hitting 3-of-8 versus 3-of-7 a year ago, but Janelle McCarville is hitting 2-of-4 shots per game whereas Taj Franklin-McWilliams made 4-of-7 a year ago.
But wait. The bench (not counting 6th player Monica Wright) is also less productive at 11 ppg on 33 percent shooting versus 17 and 42 percent a year ago. Amber Harris has increased her production marginally, while Devereaux Peters' has fallen a bunch. Rookies Sugar Rogers, Lindsay Moore and Rachel Jarry are making 1 FG per game among them, whereas Wiggins, Jessica Adair and Erin Thorn averaged 4 FG per game a year ago.
So longer term it seems that the Lynx, more than anything, need their experienced bench (Wright, Harris, Peters) to step up. Overall, while it was the D that looked a little shaky last, overall, It's the offense that needs to com together. Everybody but Seimone could be shooting a little better. The difference between a 47 and a 44 percent shooting percentage is probably the difference between 1st and 3rd in the West.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Lynx Go for 2 Out of 3
Winning is tough. I mean, winning consistently, over the long term. Just about the time somebody is pronouncing somebody as a dynasty, poof. "Now that you've found it, it's gone. Now that you feel it, you don't. So don't get any big ideas. They're not gonna happen."
So it is with the Minnesota Lynx, I fear. They had their moment, or moments. An unexpected WNBA title in 2011. An unexpected loss in the 2012 finals. "Now that you've found it, it's gone."
And so for 2013. "Don't get any big ideas. They're not gonna happen."
Unless I'm taking the wrong lesson. Now that another title is unexpected, maybe now's the time. But here's the deal. 2 years ago, Lindsay Whalen was the Lynx' MVP. Last year it was Seimone Augustus. If the Lynx are going to contend for, much less win another WNBA title, it will be because it's Maya Moore's turn.
Maya Moore has more skills and more ability and more potential than Whalen or Augustus. Until that potential is realized, the Lynx are not going to repeat. Until all those skills coalesce into production, they'll be a good team, maybe a very good team, but not a great one. And if she waits too long, well, her supporting cast won't be there for her. This is the year, maybe next, for Maya to be the WNBA MVP that she once seemed destined to be--after that it will be Brittney Griner. This is the year for her to stop deferring and take charge.
That is the game plan for another title. Last year's game plan, even 2011's game plan, well, "Now that you've found it, it's gone."
The 1
It all starts with the 1--point guard--Lindsey Whalen. Don't get me wrong, Lindsey is still pretty indispensable to the Lynx' success. Ya gotta have a 1 these days. And Lindsey will certainly remain among top half of WNBA 1's, meaning she's 1 of the top 6, maybe still 1 of the top 4. I mean, last year she was 1 of just 4 1s with better than a 2-to-1 ratio of assists to turnovers.
Lindsey Whalen, MN 5.4 assists/2.1 turnovers = 2. 6 assists/turnover
Sue Bird, SEA 5.3/2.2 = 2.4
Kara Lawson, CT 4/1.8 = 2.2
Lindsey Harding, ATL 4.5/2.1 = 2.1
Only Lawson from this list returns. Bird is out with a knee. Harding has moved to L.A. where Kristi Toliver officially moves over to the 2.
And Becky Hamann (5.3 assists/3.2 turnovers) is out (injured) at San Antone. In the West you've also got Sam Prahalis (4.5/3.0) back in Phoenix and Skylar Diggins newly ensconced in Tulsa.
In the East, Jasmine Thomas (2.8/2/2) moves from Washington to Atlanta, Courtney Vandersloot (4.6/3.3) is back in Chicago, Briann January (3.9/2.4) is back in Indiana, and Cappie Pondexter (4.3/3.1) is back in New York.
And along with leading the 1s in assist/turnover ratio, the fact is that Lindsey is also the only 1 who shot 50 percent from the floor last year. Lawson shot 49 percent, Toliver 49, Bird 46, Hamann 44, Pondexter 43, Harding 42.... All-Star or not, Lindsey has to be the most underrated player in the WNBA.
And yet here I am, trying to underrate her. But the fact is she's 31 years old. Her scoring came down from 14 ppg to 12 last year, her assists from 6 to 5, her shooting percentage from 51 to 50.5. OK, that's splitting hairs. And even if Lindsey continues those trends, scoring 10 points with 4 assists, she'll still be 1 of the top 4 1s in the league.
And most importantly, how does she stack up against key opponents who they're likely to meet in the playoffs? That would be Harding, Prahalis, January and Lawson. And, frankly, while she didn't match up so well with January last August, I see that as a bit of a fluke. Lawson is the only 1 playing for a championship contender who has the potential to outplay Whalen this coming playoff season.
And, yet, overall, a bit of a decline seems inevitable to me.
The 2
Like Whalen, Seimone Augustus is a veteran, which is a double-edged sword. The question is whether she's a veteran in her prime or a veteran entering into a decline phase. Seimone increased her scoring last year from 16 points per game in 2011 to 17, but her shooting dropped from 50 percent to 48. You might infer that she's hit her peak, but it's tough from those numbers to infer that there will be a dropoff. Unlike Whalen, she's on the low side of 30, though at 29 years she's pretty close.
The bigger question would seem to be whether she's got the fire. The Indiana Fever doused her fire a little bit in last year's final, frustrating Seimone to the point that the effort didn't seem to be there the last game or 2. The fact is that Shavonte Zellous, who was only starting because Katie Douglas was hurt, ran rings around Seimone and her teammates.
How will she match up in the West--with, say, Alana Beard or Kristi Toliver of L.A? DeWanna Bonner or Diana Taurasi of Phoenix? Well, we'll have to see how Taurasi comes off of pretty much a lost injury year, and how Toliver does at a (somewhat) new position. Toliver's quickness (like Zellous') and/or Bonner's size figure to give Seimone a workout, while Beard and even Taurasi would seem to be better match-ups.
Here is a position, however, (unlike the 1) where the best of the West are at their best, so Seimone holding form would seem to be a pretty crucial requirement for the Lynx' continued success.
The 3
OK, here she is, Maya Moore, the key to continued success by the Minnesota Lynx. Sure, she's got a great supporting cast. But she's the young 'un of the group, just approaching her 24th birthday. She's the one who is still on the rise. Her scoring jumped from 13 as a rookie in 2011 to 16 last year. Her rebounds and assists each went up 1 and her shooting percentage went from 44 percent to 46. A similar increase this year would get her to 19 ppg, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 48 percent shooting. Nothing less will be needed to get the Lynx back to the winner's circle, in my opinion.
In the 21st century, she along with Taurasi, Augustus and Brittney Griner have won 2 college player of the year awards, and Connecticut teammates Sue Bird and Tina Charles did the same. Candace Parker probably had the greatest season any of them has had, however, winning college PoY honors and then WNBA MVP honors in the same year (2008). Taurasi and Charles have also won WNBA MVP awards. Maya is next in line, the next player regarded as having that sort of ability. But she's best make it happen now before Brittney Griner passes her by.
But of course she won't match up head-to-head with Griner or Taurasi or Tina Charles or Candace Parker. It seems that most of the top players are guards and centers. All the more reason why Maya should dominate most every night. Is Maya Moore going to be the best forward in the West, maybe in the WNBA, or isn't she? A title hinges on the answer to that question.
The 4
Rebekah Brunson is 31.5 years old. Her scoring the past 3 years was 11 points, then 10, then 11. Her rebounds were 10, then 9, and 9, and her shooting percentage was just 43, then 51, and 50.5 percent. In 2 pre-season games so far this year, she is at 10 and 8 and 47 percent in 5 fewer minutes than she played during the 2013 season. Can she keep it up? I think yes, but I also think that Devereaux Peters will be taking a few more minutes. Last year Brunson got 27, Peters 14. This year it will be more like 24 and 17. Peters shot 56 percent (5.5 percent better than Brunson, but Brunson had a rebound every 3 minutes versus Peters' 3.7 minutes). Still, here is 1 position where the next generation is pretty much ready to go.
For whatever reason, it looks like Brunson will match up with much tougher opponents than Maya Moore at the smaller forward position. In the West, Nneka Ogwumike of L.A. is the defending Rookie of the Year. As a rookie she scored 14 ppg on 53.5 percent shooting, compared with Moore's 13 and 44 as Rookie of the Year the previous year. Elsewhere there's Tamika Catchings of Indiana, playoff MVP a year ago, who lit up the Lynx with 22 ppg in the finals.
While Moore should dominate, Brunson will be successful if she holds her own against some of the other WNBA title contenders.
Then There's the 5 Spot
Taj has moved on and Shaq McCarville is back! Great things are expected of McCarville, who is after all a local legend after her time at the U of M with Lindsey Whalen during the glory years. But the fact is McCarville is just 6 months younger than Whalen--31.5 years old--and carrying around 215 pounds on her 6-2 frame can't have been an easy thing all these years. The fact is that Janel has taken the past 2 years off from WNBA play, though it's true that she played overseas in the winter. So what should one expect of Janel McCarville in 2013?
All we've really got to go by is 1 pre-season game. She played 1 and sat 1. She played 21 minutes, scored 4 points on 33 percent shooting, and had 1 (count 'em, 1) rebound, 1 assist and 2 steals.
If Janel doesn't work out? Amber Harris has scored 3.4 ppg on 40 percent shooting with 2 rebounds in 10 minutes of play over 2 years. Deveraux Peters scored 5.3 ppg on 56 percent shooting with 4 rebounds in 14 minutes as a rookie, but she is only 6-foot-2. Well, that's the same as Taj and Shaq, but of course she is 50 pounds lighter than Shaq. Brunson, 6-2 and 20 pounds heavier than Peters, could be a better back-up in the post with Peters moving in at the 4.
Frankly, this looks like a problem.
The Bench
We've already talked about Peters, who will be a solid WNBA player some day...maybe sooner than later.
Then there's Monica Wright, who is now a solid WNBA player. A 5-10 swing player, Monica has scored 8.5 ppg on 40 percent shooting over 3 years with the Lynx. Last year she scored 8.6 ppg on 46 percent shooting in 19 minutes per game. She is ready and will now take over the Candace Wiggins role as the #1 perimeter sub.
Amber Harris will get some minutes.
Then there are the rookies Rachel Jarry, Lindsay Moore and Sugar Rodgers. Jarry, a 21-year old, 6-1, forward from Down Under, can play. She scored 15 points in 2 pre-season games on 4-of-7 shooting including 1-of-2 3s and 6-of-7 FT. She had 8 rebounds and 3 assists, but 5 turnovers. Moore and/or Rodgers will play as much as needed, and no more, but some minutes will be needed.
Two years ago the Lynx were considered to have a great bench as the 2nd 5 scored 22.5 ppg in 60 minutes. Last year depth became an issue as Wiggins, in particular, struggled. Now the Lynx are not a deep team, having just 2 proven producers off the bench. Harris and/or Jarry are going to get a shot at making a contribution and, if they're not ready, again, that's a problem.
The Sum of the Parts
A basketball team is, of course, not just 5 individuals like a golf or gymnastics team. Chemistry, teamwork, whatever you want to call it, it is vital. And over the past 2 years, the Indiana series to the contrary notwithstanding, the Lynx have had it. Coach Cheryl Reeve gets a lot of the credit for that, but so does Lindsay Whalen. And I think that Augustus and Brunson and Taj and Maya have all proven themselves to be good teammates and good team players.
Can they keep it up as people's roles change a little bit. This year's team will by necessity be more Maya and more Monica and a little bit less of everybody else. Can it make the transition?
So that's what's needed--a transition. The fact is they don't actually have to improve to contend for and even to win the WNBA title. They were 27-7 2 years ago when they won the WNBA title. They were 27-7 last year when they finished 2nd. 27-7 would probably get 'em the home court advantage throughout, again. Heck, 22 wins would have gotten 'em the home court advantage throughout in 2011. Last year 25 and 26 would have gotten 'em the home court in the division and in the finals. As a generalization, 20 wins will get you into the finals.
So improvement is not needed. Just a smooth transition to the Maya Moore era. Say, 24-10, which might get the home court throughout, certainly in the 1st round. But a little bit of a fall-off should be expected while transitioning, and because the competition is going to be better.
The Competition
In the West, that would be L.A. and Phoenix. San Antonio and Seattle will be down, with Becky Hammon and Sue Bird out. Tulsa will be competitive for a change, but nowhere near a contender.
In L.A. the frontcourt of Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike is intimidating enough, but now there's Lindsay Harding in the backcourt and Kristi Toliver running free at the 2. The question is whether Parker will be an MVP candidate again or merely an All-Star. As a rookie she scored 18.5 ppg on 52 percent shooting, and made 42 percent of her 3s. She scored 21 ppg 2 years later, but she has never shot as well as her rookie year since. Last year she scored her 2nd lowest total (17.4 ppg) on her worst shooting percentage (.481). The Sparks need more from a player with her jaw-dropping athleticism.
In Phoenix, it's just a question of when it all jells. Griner in the post. Taurasi back from injury, 6-4 DeWana Bonner, 6-2 Candace Dupree, 6-1 Penny Taylor.... But it certainly didn't jell in time for the opener, a 102-80 loss to Chicago as Sky rookie Elena Della Donna outplayed Griner by a wide margin, Griner's 2 dunks to the contrary. But Phoenix seems a little weak at the all-important 1 with 2nd year Sam Prahalis. I mean, I love Sam Prahalis but she's going to get better than 4.5 assists and 3 turnovers, and 35 percent shooting, it's just a question of when.
In the East, Connecticut and Indiana are the teams to beat. Connecticut has the WNBA's other great post in Tina Charles, the 2012 MVP, plus Kara Lawson, but they don't have a lot of help. Indiana has the WNBA playoff MVP Tamika Catchings but, frankly, I consider their title to be a fluke, one that will not be repeated.
In short, whoever makes it out of the West will win it all. Of course, I would have said--I did say--the same thing last year.
The Prediction--Who's in the Playoffs
West
Los Angeles 25-9
Minnesota 24-10
Phoenix 23-11
San Antonio 14-20
East
Connecticut 23-11
Indiana 21-13
Chicago 20-14
Atlanta 15-19
Playoffs
L.A. 2 San Antonio 0
Minnesota 2 Phoenix 1
Connecticut 2 Atlanta 1
Chicago 2 Indiana 1
L.A. 2 Minnesota 1
Chicago 2 Connecticut 1
L.A. 3 Chicago 0
So it is with the Minnesota Lynx, I fear. They had their moment, or moments. An unexpected WNBA title in 2011. An unexpected loss in the 2012 finals. "Now that you've found it, it's gone."
And so for 2013. "Don't get any big ideas. They're not gonna happen."
Unless I'm taking the wrong lesson. Now that another title is unexpected, maybe now's the time. But here's the deal. 2 years ago, Lindsay Whalen was the Lynx' MVP. Last year it was Seimone Augustus. If the Lynx are going to contend for, much less win another WNBA title, it will be because it's Maya Moore's turn.
Maya Moore has more skills and more ability and more potential than Whalen or Augustus. Until that potential is realized, the Lynx are not going to repeat. Until all those skills coalesce into production, they'll be a good team, maybe a very good team, but not a great one. And if she waits too long, well, her supporting cast won't be there for her. This is the year, maybe next, for Maya to be the WNBA MVP that she once seemed destined to be--after that it will be Brittney Griner. This is the year for her to stop deferring and take charge.
That is the game plan for another title. Last year's game plan, even 2011's game plan, well, "Now that you've found it, it's gone."
The 1
It all starts with the 1--point guard--Lindsey Whalen. Don't get me wrong, Lindsey is still pretty indispensable to the Lynx' success. Ya gotta have a 1 these days. And Lindsey will certainly remain among top half of WNBA 1's, meaning she's 1 of the top 6, maybe still 1 of the top 4. I mean, last year she was 1 of just 4 1s with better than a 2-to-1 ratio of assists to turnovers.
Lindsey Whalen, MN 5.4 assists/2.1 turnovers = 2. 6 assists/turnover
Sue Bird, SEA 5.3/2.2 = 2.4
Kara Lawson, CT 4/1.8 = 2.2
Lindsey Harding, ATL 4.5/2.1 = 2.1
Only Lawson from this list returns. Bird is out with a knee. Harding has moved to L.A. where Kristi Toliver officially moves over to the 2.
And Becky Hamann (5.3 assists/3.2 turnovers) is out (injured) at San Antone. In the West you've also got Sam Prahalis (4.5/3.0) back in Phoenix and Skylar Diggins newly ensconced in Tulsa.
In the East, Jasmine Thomas (2.8/2/2) moves from Washington to Atlanta, Courtney Vandersloot (4.6/3.3) is back in Chicago, Briann January (3.9/2.4) is back in Indiana, and Cappie Pondexter (4.3/3.1) is back in New York.
And along with leading the 1s in assist/turnover ratio, the fact is that Lindsey is also the only 1 who shot 50 percent from the floor last year. Lawson shot 49 percent, Toliver 49, Bird 46, Hamann 44, Pondexter 43, Harding 42.... All-Star or not, Lindsey has to be the most underrated player in the WNBA.
And yet here I am, trying to underrate her. But the fact is she's 31 years old. Her scoring came down from 14 ppg to 12 last year, her assists from 6 to 5, her shooting percentage from 51 to 50.5. OK, that's splitting hairs. And even if Lindsey continues those trends, scoring 10 points with 4 assists, she'll still be 1 of the top 4 1s in the league.
And most importantly, how does she stack up against key opponents who they're likely to meet in the playoffs? That would be Harding, Prahalis, January and Lawson. And, frankly, while she didn't match up so well with January last August, I see that as a bit of a fluke. Lawson is the only 1 playing for a championship contender who has the potential to outplay Whalen this coming playoff season.
And, yet, overall, a bit of a decline seems inevitable to me.
The 2
Like Whalen, Seimone Augustus is a veteran, which is a double-edged sword. The question is whether she's a veteran in her prime or a veteran entering into a decline phase. Seimone increased her scoring last year from 16 points per game in 2011 to 17, but her shooting dropped from 50 percent to 48. You might infer that she's hit her peak, but it's tough from those numbers to infer that there will be a dropoff. Unlike Whalen, she's on the low side of 30, though at 29 years she's pretty close.
The bigger question would seem to be whether she's got the fire. The Indiana Fever doused her fire a little bit in last year's final, frustrating Seimone to the point that the effort didn't seem to be there the last game or 2. The fact is that Shavonte Zellous, who was only starting because Katie Douglas was hurt, ran rings around Seimone and her teammates.
How will she match up in the West--with, say, Alana Beard or Kristi Toliver of L.A? DeWanna Bonner or Diana Taurasi of Phoenix? Well, we'll have to see how Taurasi comes off of pretty much a lost injury year, and how Toliver does at a (somewhat) new position. Toliver's quickness (like Zellous') and/or Bonner's size figure to give Seimone a workout, while Beard and even Taurasi would seem to be better match-ups.
Here is a position, however, (unlike the 1) where the best of the West are at their best, so Seimone holding form would seem to be a pretty crucial requirement for the Lynx' continued success.
The 3
OK, here she is, Maya Moore, the key to continued success by the Minnesota Lynx. Sure, she's got a great supporting cast. But she's the young 'un of the group, just approaching her 24th birthday. She's the one who is still on the rise. Her scoring jumped from 13 as a rookie in 2011 to 16 last year. Her rebounds and assists each went up 1 and her shooting percentage went from 44 percent to 46. A similar increase this year would get her to 19 ppg, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 48 percent shooting. Nothing less will be needed to get the Lynx back to the winner's circle, in my opinion.
In the 21st century, she along with Taurasi, Augustus and Brittney Griner have won 2 college player of the year awards, and Connecticut teammates Sue Bird and Tina Charles did the same. Candace Parker probably had the greatest season any of them has had, however, winning college PoY honors and then WNBA MVP honors in the same year (2008). Taurasi and Charles have also won WNBA MVP awards. Maya is next in line, the next player regarded as having that sort of ability. But she's best make it happen now before Brittney Griner passes her by.
But of course she won't match up head-to-head with Griner or Taurasi or Tina Charles or Candace Parker. It seems that most of the top players are guards and centers. All the more reason why Maya should dominate most every night. Is Maya Moore going to be the best forward in the West, maybe in the WNBA, or isn't she? A title hinges on the answer to that question.
The 4
Rebekah Brunson is 31.5 years old. Her scoring the past 3 years was 11 points, then 10, then 11. Her rebounds were 10, then 9, and 9, and her shooting percentage was just 43, then 51, and 50.5 percent. In 2 pre-season games so far this year, she is at 10 and 8 and 47 percent in 5 fewer minutes than she played during the 2013 season. Can she keep it up? I think yes, but I also think that Devereaux Peters will be taking a few more minutes. Last year Brunson got 27, Peters 14. This year it will be more like 24 and 17. Peters shot 56 percent (5.5 percent better than Brunson, but Brunson had a rebound every 3 minutes versus Peters' 3.7 minutes). Still, here is 1 position where the next generation is pretty much ready to go.
For whatever reason, it looks like Brunson will match up with much tougher opponents than Maya Moore at the smaller forward position. In the West, Nneka Ogwumike of L.A. is the defending Rookie of the Year. As a rookie she scored 14 ppg on 53.5 percent shooting, compared with Moore's 13 and 44 as Rookie of the Year the previous year. Elsewhere there's Tamika Catchings of Indiana, playoff MVP a year ago, who lit up the Lynx with 22 ppg in the finals.
While Moore should dominate, Brunson will be successful if she holds her own against some of the other WNBA title contenders.
Then There's the 5 Spot
Taj has moved on and Shaq McCarville is back! Great things are expected of McCarville, who is after all a local legend after her time at the U of M with Lindsey Whalen during the glory years. But the fact is McCarville is just 6 months younger than Whalen--31.5 years old--and carrying around 215 pounds on her 6-2 frame can't have been an easy thing all these years. The fact is that Janel has taken the past 2 years off from WNBA play, though it's true that she played overseas in the winter. So what should one expect of Janel McCarville in 2013?
All we've really got to go by is 1 pre-season game. She played 1 and sat 1. She played 21 minutes, scored 4 points on 33 percent shooting, and had 1 (count 'em, 1) rebound, 1 assist and 2 steals.
If Janel doesn't work out? Amber Harris has scored 3.4 ppg on 40 percent shooting with 2 rebounds in 10 minutes of play over 2 years. Deveraux Peters scored 5.3 ppg on 56 percent shooting with 4 rebounds in 14 minutes as a rookie, but she is only 6-foot-2. Well, that's the same as Taj and Shaq, but of course she is 50 pounds lighter than Shaq. Brunson, 6-2 and 20 pounds heavier than Peters, could be a better back-up in the post with Peters moving in at the 4.
Frankly, this looks like a problem.
The Bench
We've already talked about Peters, who will be a solid WNBA player some day...maybe sooner than later.
Then there's Monica Wright, who is now a solid WNBA player. A 5-10 swing player, Monica has scored 8.5 ppg on 40 percent shooting over 3 years with the Lynx. Last year she scored 8.6 ppg on 46 percent shooting in 19 minutes per game. She is ready and will now take over the Candace Wiggins role as the #1 perimeter sub.
Amber Harris will get some minutes.
Then there are the rookies Rachel Jarry, Lindsay Moore and Sugar Rodgers. Jarry, a 21-year old, 6-1, forward from Down Under, can play. She scored 15 points in 2 pre-season games on 4-of-7 shooting including 1-of-2 3s and 6-of-7 FT. She had 8 rebounds and 3 assists, but 5 turnovers. Moore and/or Rodgers will play as much as needed, and no more, but some minutes will be needed.
Two years ago the Lynx were considered to have a great bench as the 2nd 5 scored 22.5 ppg in 60 minutes. Last year depth became an issue as Wiggins, in particular, struggled. Now the Lynx are not a deep team, having just 2 proven producers off the bench. Harris and/or Jarry are going to get a shot at making a contribution and, if they're not ready, again, that's a problem.
The Sum of the Parts
A basketball team is, of course, not just 5 individuals like a golf or gymnastics team. Chemistry, teamwork, whatever you want to call it, it is vital. And over the past 2 years, the Indiana series to the contrary notwithstanding, the Lynx have had it. Coach Cheryl Reeve gets a lot of the credit for that, but so does Lindsay Whalen. And I think that Augustus and Brunson and Taj and Maya have all proven themselves to be good teammates and good team players.
Can they keep it up as people's roles change a little bit. This year's team will by necessity be more Maya and more Monica and a little bit less of everybody else. Can it make the transition?
So that's what's needed--a transition. The fact is they don't actually have to improve to contend for and even to win the WNBA title. They were 27-7 2 years ago when they won the WNBA title. They were 27-7 last year when they finished 2nd. 27-7 would probably get 'em the home court advantage throughout, again. Heck, 22 wins would have gotten 'em the home court advantage throughout in 2011. Last year 25 and 26 would have gotten 'em the home court in the division and in the finals. As a generalization, 20 wins will get you into the finals.
So improvement is not needed. Just a smooth transition to the Maya Moore era. Say, 24-10, which might get the home court throughout, certainly in the 1st round. But a little bit of a fall-off should be expected while transitioning, and because the competition is going to be better.
The Competition
In the West, that would be L.A. and Phoenix. San Antonio and Seattle will be down, with Becky Hammon and Sue Bird out. Tulsa will be competitive for a change, but nowhere near a contender.
In L.A. the frontcourt of Candace Parker and Nneka Ogwumike is intimidating enough, but now there's Lindsay Harding in the backcourt and Kristi Toliver running free at the 2. The question is whether Parker will be an MVP candidate again or merely an All-Star. As a rookie she scored 18.5 ppg on 52 percent shooting, and made 42 percent of her 3s. She scored 21 ppg 2 years later, but she has never shot as well as her rookie year since. Last year she scored her 2nd lowest total (17.4 ppg) on her worst shooting percentage (.481). The Sparks need more from a player with her jaw-dropping athleticism.
In Phoenix, it's just a question of when it all jells. Griner in the post. Taurasi back from injury, 6-4 DeWana Bonner, 6-2 Candace Dupree, 6-1 Penny Taylor.... But it certainly didn't jell in time for the opener, a 102-80 loss to Chicago as Sky rookie Elena Della Donna outplayed Griner by a wide margin, Griner's 2 dunks to the contrary. But Phoenix seems a little weak at the all-important 1 with 2nd year Sam Prahalis. I mean, I love Sam Prahalis but she's going to get better than 4.5 assists and 3 turnovers, and 35 percent shooting, it's just a question of when.
In the East, Connecticut and Indiana are the teams to beat. Connecticut has the WNBA's other great post in Tina Charles, the 2012 MVP, plus Kara Lawson, but they don't have a lot of help. Indiana has the WNBA playoff MVP Tamika Catchings but, frankly, I consider their title to be a fluke, one that will not be repeated.
In short, whoever makes it out of the West will win it all. Of course, I would have said--I did say--the same thing last year.
The Prediction--Who's in the Playoffs
West
Los Angeles 25-9
Minnesota 24-10
Phoenix 23-11
San Antonio 14-20
East
Connecticut 23-11
Indiana 21-13
Chicago 20-14
Atlanta 15-19
Playoffs
L.A. 2 San Antonio 0
Minnesota 2 Phoenix 1
Connecticut 2 Atlanta 1
Chicago 2 Indiana 1
L.A. 2 Minnesota 1
Chicago 2 Connecticut 1
L.A. 3 Chicago 0
Friday, October 26, 2012
What Happened to the Lynx?
The Lynx (27-7 on the regular season) lost to the Indiana Fever (22-12) in the WNBA finals. The Lynx were favored going into the playoffs, but were certainly not considered to be prohibitive favorites. A loss to L.A. or San Antone might not have been a huge surprise. A loss to Seattle would have been another thing. And yet it was Seattle who almost knocked off the Lynx and Indiana that did. L.A., no problem. What up wit dat?
Well, 2 things. 1) The Lynx simply ran into a hot hot hot team. 2) They ran into a hot team with not 1 but 2 new starters, a team/a lineup against which they had relatively little information and so had a difficult time preparing for. And 3) Seattle and Indiana played physical and it worked. It worked well. L.A. ran with the Lynx and that proved to be a recipe for disaster.
Put those 3 things together, and you've got the Indiana Fever: Hot, new and physical.
The Post
Take Erlana Larkins in the post for Indiana. She started just 2 regular season games as Tammy Sutton-Brown manned the post position. Tammy averaged 4 points and 3 boards in 16 minutes of play, while Larkins averaged 4 points and 4 boards in 15.5 minutes. In the playoffs Larkins averaged 8.5 points and 12 boards in 31.5 minutes, or twice as much playing time as during the regular season.
Meanwhile Taj's output fell slightly from 8 to 6 points, 5 to 4 boards, and 51 to 42 percent shooting. And Taj just didn't have the strength to keep Larkins away from the basket.
They increased their output over the regular season, we slipped back a little bit. Larkins was all 3--hot, new and physical.
Big Forward
Here Rebekah Brunson ran into a big strong player but one that the Lynx knew all about, Tamika Catchings, 2011 WNBA MVP and playoff MVP this year based on 22 ppg, 7 boards, 3 assists and 2.5 blocks. This is 5 ponts more than during the regular season.
She also stifled Brunson, who scored 9 ppg with 8 boards, compared to 11 and 9 during the regular season. She actually played as well as anybody for the Lynx, it jsut wasn't enough against Catchings. Catchings is the most dangerous type of playoff opponent--an all-star player who had never won a WNBA title. Given the opportunity, she stepped up quite emphatically.
The increased their output, we slipped a little bit. Catchings was hot and physical.
Small Forward
What can you say about Corey Zellous? A 3rd year pro, her career and 2012 regular season averages are 7.5 points on 37 percent shooting. She almost doubled her average for the WNBA finals scoring 17 points on 41.5 percent shooting. Other than Catchings, the Fever's MVP for the finals.
Meanwhile Maya Moore scored the quietest 15 ppg ever in the finals, only 1 point less than during the regular season. But she shot just 39 percent versus 46.5 during the regular season. She was also down 1 rebound and 2 assists.
They increased their output a bunch, we slipped a little bit. Zellous was hot, new and quick.
Shooting Guard
The Lynx figured to have a huge advantage here with all-star Seimone Augustus, while Indiana's Katie Douglas was out with an injury. Seimone averaged 17 pouts on 49 percent shooting with 4 boards, 3.5 assists and a steal. Douglas' replacement, the Aussie Erin Phillips, had scored 6 points on 39 percent shooting with 3 boards, 2 assists and a steal in 21 minutes.
Phillips minutes increased 50 percent to 30 minutes He scoring doubled to 13.5 on 44 percent shooting with 3 boards, 5 assists and 2 steals. Seimone's output fell by just 1 point (16) but her shooting percentage plummeted to 37 percent with 5 boards and just 1 assist. And her output in 2 games at Indiana was 7 points per game. In game 4 Phillips out-scored Seimone 18-8.
Phillips didn't quite play at Douglas' level (16 ppg) but Seimone played well below her own. Phillips was new, at least.
Point Guard
Finally, the only position where the Lynx had an advantage. Lindsay Whalen scored 14 ppg on 52.5 percent shooting, 4.5 boards and 4 assists, better than her regular season averages except her assists were down from 5 to 4.
Briann January scored 10 ppg with 2.5 boards and 4 assists, all pretty close to her regular season average. But her shooting dropped from 40 percent to 34. But it was January who defended Seimone Augustus in games 3 and 4, which pretty much evens the ledger in this match-up as well.
In summary, Indiana out-played the Lynx at four positions, while the Lynx didn't out-play the Fever at any position.
Something New
I can't say this for sure, of course, but one imagines that if Katie Douglas had played and if coach Lin Dunn had left the Fever's center rotation as 1) Tammy Sutton-Brown and 2) Erlana Larkins as the back-up, that the Lynx might have won. With Douglas out, the Fever were inspired to step it up a notch, individually, in a way they might not have done if it had been the same old same old. But more tangibly, I wonder if the Lynx just didn't know how to prepare for this new Fever lineup. More physical in the post. Quicker on the perimeter.
But still, while Larkins and Phillips both out-played their Lynx counterpart, it was some old--Tamika Catchings and Corey Zellous--who really stood out. No surprise in Catchings case. But what in the world happened to Corey Zellous. A career 7-pointer, a 37 percent shooter this year, she scored 17 ppg on 41.5 percent shooting.
Except that in the most crucial game--Game 1--Zellous scored only 7, and it was Larkin with 16 points and 15 boards who really put a hurt on the Lynx.
So it was a team effort with the vet Tamika Catchings leading the way. In the other game that the Lynx could have won--Game 4--Catchings scored 25 points with 8 boards, 5 assists and 3 blocks.
Wait Until Next Year
Now that Seattle and Indiana have shown people how to beat the Lynx, I can't see our team going 27-7 again. Coach Cheryl Reeve says, however, that the Lynx will be hungry again. And with 3 Olympians still on the roster, surely they'll be a contender.
Taj could be gone. She's 42 years old. If so, the Lynx could be improved in the post. 6-3 rookie Deveraux Peters scored 5 ppg in just 14 minutes, and looks like she's ready.
And reserves Candice Wiggins and Amber Harris could be looking for an opportunity to play more than they do here. They might be harder to replace. Depth at the point guard position could be an especial problem. But let's be honest. The Lynx bench out-scored opponents on the year, but at crunch time Reeve was reluctant to use any of them save Monica Wright.
And the rest of the division will be a lot tougher next year. Lauren Jackson should be healthy all year long for Seattle. Candace Parker and Nnemi Ogwumike will be improved in L.A., the latter having completed a productive rookie season. And Phoenix would seem to be a lock to draft 6-8 Brittney Griner of Baylor with the #1 draft choice. She will be a force on day 1. And of course Phoenix also figures to have Diana Taurasi healthy all year long.
So, for the Lynx, the same questions that pertained this year (see my post "Can the Lynx Repeat?" dated September 1). Post defense. Maya Moore's progress toward being a go-to MVP caliber player, which seemed so solid then fell so flat in the finals. The 3-ball, where they almost always get beat. And Lindsay, who struggles a bit more these days against really quick opponents.
And, I guess to all of that, add the new question of how long Seimone will be an MVP candidate caliber of player, now that Indiana has shown the world how to stop her. Of course, not everybody will have the personnel to stop her, or to out-quick Lindsay. Still, this team seems vulnerable to a general decline, what with Brunson next year being 32, Lindsay 31 and Seiomone 29--again, not to even mention Taj's 42. I would guess that Moore and Peters are going to have to be much improved for anything near another 27-7 to happen.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Lynx 83 Fever 71
It's 9:30 and the box score on the WNBA Web site still says the same thing it said an hour ago. Lynx 66 Indiana 57 with 7 minutes left to play. Yahoo Sports still has the same thing. Fortunately the StarTrib has the final score...but the same ancient box score. Jeez.
I can tell you that Indiana put a 17-2 run on the Lynx early on and the Lynx trailed 23-11. They only caught up at 36-35 in the 3rd quarter. They finally took the lead for good by scoring the last 6 points of the 3rd at 60-55. Eventually the Lynx matched the Fever's run with a 17-2 run of their own, going from 54-55 to 71-57.
But that is all we know.
I can tell you that Indiana put a 17-2 run on the Lynx early on and the Lynx trailed 23-11. They only caught up at 36-35 in the 3rd quarter. They finally took the lead for good by scoring the last 6 points of the 3rd at 60-55. Eventually the Lynx matched the Fever's run with a 17-2 run of their own, going from 54-55 to 71-57.
But that is all we know.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
One Step Back
Fortunately it's been two steps forward and one step back. For the Minnesota Lynx, I mean. Whatever adversary they've had over the past 2 seasons they've overcome. Now they'll have to overcome a 1-0 series deficit and the loss of homecourt advantage to the Indiana Fever in the WNBA Finals.
Don't bet against 'em.
But meanwhile you gotta hand it to the Fever who played a perfect game, beating the WNBA's best team on the road and overcoming more than a bit of adversity themselves. First, leading scorer Katie Douglas was on the bench with a sprained ankle. And second, after leading the Lynx through most of the early going, the Fever gave up an 8-0 run to trail 54-50 late in the 3rd quarter. Now the gritty Lynx, who won 1 point games against both Seattle and L.A. in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the playoffs, had the Fever where they wanted them.
Nope. Shavante Zellous hit 2 FT to close scoring in the 3rd quarter, and the Lynx turned to ball over on their next 3 possessions, one in the 3rd and 2 in the 4th. By the time the Lynx got off another shot it was tied at 58. A Lindsay Whalen bucket put the Lynx ahead 60-58. But by the time they got off another shot they were down 63-60. By the time they scored another FG they were down 72-64.
The Lynx shot just 2-of-13 and were out-scored 20-12 in the 4th quarter. The final was 76-70.
The Lynx had 17 turnovers to just 8 for Indiana. The Fever scored 15 points off turnovers and out-scored Minnesota 38-24 in the paint. And the held the Lynx to just 39 percent shooting from the field. It was just the 2nd loss at the Target Center all year for the Lynx.
Don't bet against 'em.
But meanwhile you gotta hand it to the Fever who played a perfect game, beating the WNBA's best team on the road and overcoming more than a bit of adversity themselves. First, leading scorer Katie Douglas was on the bench with a sprained ankle. And second, after leading the Lynx through most of the early going, the Fever gave up an 8-0 run to trail 54-50 late in the 3rd quarter. Now the gritty Lynx, who won 1 point games against both Seattle and L.A. in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the playoffs, had the Fever where they wanted them.
Nope. Shavante Zellous hit 2 FT to close scoring in the 3rd quarter, and the Lynx turned to ball over on their next 3 possessions, one in the 3rd and 2 in the 4th. By the time the Lynx got off another shot it was tied at 58. A Lindsay Whalen bucket put the Lynx ahead 60-58. But by the time they got off another shot they were down 63-60. By the time they scored another FG they were down 72-64.
The Lynx shot just 2-of-13 and were out-scored 20-12 in the 4th quarter. The final was 76-70.
The Lynx had 17 turnovers to just 8 for Indiana. The Fever scored 15 points off turnovers and out-scored Minnesota 38-24 in the paint. And the held the Lynx to just 39 percent shooting from the field. It was just the 2nd loss at the Target Center all year for the Lynx.
Monday, October 8, 2012
Impressive! The Lynx, That's Who
The Minnesota Lynx swept the L.A. Sparks to advance to the WNBA finals for the 2nd straight year. They'll be defending their WNBA title against the winner of the Connecticut-Indiana series, probably the Sun who lead that series 1 game to none.
The Lynx nipped the Sparks 80-79, making this the 2nd straight series in which the deciding game was won by a single point. But while the Seattle series win was, well, unimpressive, this one is impressive with a capital IMPRESSIVE. That's the difference between winning at home and winning on the road. And it's the difference between desperately hanging on to a once-comfortable lead and roaring back from behind.
The Lynx trailed L.A. 65-52 at 0:46 of the 3rd period and 65-57 to start the 4th. They caught up and took the lead at 73-72 with 5 minutes still to play. In other words, they out-scored the Sparks 21-7 over just 5:46 as Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsay Whalen each contributed 3 buckets. L.A. regained the lead at 74-73 and 79-77, and Moore hit a pair of throws and Rebekah Brunson scored (how else?) off the offensive glass. A Monica Wright 3 at 1:14 put Minnesota back out front, and Alana Beard missed a pair of shots inside of 1 minute.
The Lynx' finish followed a terrible 3rd period in which L.A. had a 17-0 run.
In game 1 the Lynx held L.A., a solid rebounding team, to a ridiculous 1 offensive rebound and out-scored them 20-2 on 2nd chance points. In game 2 L.A. grabbed an equally ridiculous 18 offensive boards...and lost. At home, where they were 16-1 this year going into tonight's game. 17 turnovers didn't help, nor 5-of-10 FT shooting.
Augustus, Moore and Whalen finished with 21, 20 and 17 points. Brunson contributed 10 boards, while Taj McWilliams-Franklin and Whalen had 5 assists apiece. Candace Parker was all-world for L.A. with 33 points and 15 boards.
Once again, here are the Lynx' keys to victory:
Inside D: Grade D
3-Ball: Grade B (Lynx hit 7-of-18, L.A. 4-fo-17)
The good Lindsay shows: Grade B+
Maya steps up: Grade B+
Blocking and tackling: C (out-rebounded badly and allowed L.A. to shoot 47 percent)
And yet they won on the road. This was every bit as impressive as the Seattle series was not.
The Lynx nipped the Sparks 80-79, making this the 2nd straight series in which the deciding game was won by a single point. But while the Seattle series win was, well, unimpressive, this one is impressive with a capital IMPRESSIVE. That's the difference between winning at home and winning on the road. And it's the difference between desperately hanging on to a once-comfortable lead and roaring back from behind.
The Lynx trailed L.A. 65-52 at 0:46 of the 3rd period and 65-57 to start the 4th. They caught up and took the lead at 73-72 with 5 minutes still to play. In other words, they out-scored the Sparks 21-7 over just 5:46 as Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsay Whalen each contributed 3 buckets. L.A. regained the lead at 74-73 and 79-77, and Moore hit a pair of throws and Rebekah Brunson scored (how else?) off the offensive glass. A Monica Wright 3 at 1:14 put Minnesota back out front, and Alana Beard missed a pair of shots inside of 1 minute.
The Lynx' finish followed a terrible 3rd period in which L.A. had a 17-0 run.
In game 1 the Lynx held L.A., a solid rebounding team, to a ridiculous 1 offensive rebound and out-scored them 20-2 on 2nd chance points. In game 2 L.A. grabbed an equally ridiculous 18 offensive boards...and lost. At home, where they were 16-1 this year going into tonight's game. 17 turnovers didn't help, nor 5-of-10 FT shooting.
Augustus, Moore and Whalen finished with 21, 20 and 17 points. Brunson contributed 10 boards, while Taj McWilliams-Franklin and Whalen had 5 assists apiece. Candace Parker was all-world for L.A. with 33 points and 15 boards.
Once again, here are the Lynx' keys to victory:
Inside D: Grade D
3-Ball: Grade B (Lynx hit 7-of-18, L.A. 4-fo-17)
The good Lindsay shows: Grade B+
Maya steps up: Grade B+
Blocking and tackling: C (out-rebounded badly and allowed L.A. to shoot 47 percent)
And yet they won on the road. This was every bit as impressive as the Seattle series was not.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Who plays great defense?
Who plays great defense? Seattle? Ha!
The Minnesota Lynx, that's who! The Lynx raced out to a 48-31 half-time lead, holding the L.A. Sparks to, well, 41 percent shooting, which actually isn't terrible. But L.A. had just 1 offensive rebound and 9 turnovers, while the Lynx had 7 offensive boards and just 5 turnovers, and shot a red-hot 58 percent.
The 2 teams traded baskets in the 2nd half, which the Lynx could of course afford to do and L.A. could not. The final was still a 17 point difference, 94-77.
L.A. led 15-10 late in the 1st quarter when the Lynx went on their 1st tear, outscoring the Sparks 24-5 to put the game away. Seimone Augustus and Rebekah Brunson each scored 8 points in the run, and finished the, half with 12 and 10 points respectively.
In the 2nd half, it was Maya Moore stepping up with 17 points after scoring just 3 in the 1st. The Lynx' largest lead was 63-41, and the closest the Spakrs ever got was 10 points at 71-61 and 73-63 at 5:57.
How well did the Lynx execute MY game plan?
Inside D: Well, Candace Parker did some damage with 25 points and 11 boards. But everybody else struggled for L.A., especially Kristi Tolliver who had 2 1st half points and zero assists.
3-Ball: Minnesota 9-of-21 (Moore 4-for-6), L.A. 5-of-13. Bingo!
Lindsay: Finished with 12 points and just 2 assists, but just 1 turnover, and out-played the aforementioned Tolliver.
Moore: The Lynx pulled away in the 2nd quarter without a lot of production from Maya. Most of Maya's points came in the trading-baskets portion of the game. But, hey, that certainly helped keep L.A. from ever mounting a threat.
Blocking and tackling: The Lynx only out-shot L.A. 49 percent to 48, but out-rebounded 'em 37-25 including 13-4 on the offensive end. WNBA.com wrote in its pre-game analysis that rebounding could decide the game. I'd say that's pretty smart. Rebekah Brunson had 10, Seimone 6, Maya 5 and Amber Harris 4.
Bench: Our bench out-scored their bench 26-15.
So, anyway, wow. How a team could struggle so mightily vs. Seattle and then blow out L.A. is beyond me. It's all about match-ups, they say, and that, too, looks pretty smart. They'll probably match-up differently in game 2 in L.A., however. Game 2 is on Sunday. Game 3, if necessary, is on Wednesday.
The Minnesota Lynx, that's who! The Lynx raced out to a 48-31 half-time lead, holding the L.A. Sparks to, well, 41 percent shooting, which actually isn't terrible. But L.A. had just 1 offensive rebound and 9 turnovers, while the Lynx had 7 offensive boards and just 5 turnovers, and shot a red-hot 58 percent.
The 2 teams traded baskets in the 2nd half, which the Lynx could of course afford to do and L.A. could not. The final was still a 17 point difference, 94-77.
L.A. led 15-10 late in the 1st quarter when the Lynx went on their 1st tear, outscoring the Sparks 24-5 to put the game away. Seimone Augustus and Rebekah Brunson each scored 8 points in the run, and finished the, half with 12 and 10 points respectively.
In the 2nd half, it was Maya Moore stepping up with 17 points after scoring just 3 in the 1st. The Lynx' largest lead was 63-41, and the closest the Spakrs ever got was 10 points at 71-61 and 73-63 at 5:57.
How well did the Lynx execute MY game plan?
Inside D: Well, Candace Parker did some damage with 25 points and 11 boards. But everybody else struggled for L.A., especially Kristi Tolliver who had 2 1st half points and zero assists.
3-Ball: Minnesota 9-of-21 (Moore 4-for-6), L.A. 5-of-13. Bingo!
Lindsay: Finished with 12 points and just 2 assists, but just 1 turnover, and out-played the aforementioned Tolliver.
Moore: The Lynx pulled away in the 2nd quarter without a lot of production from Maya. Most of Maya's points came in the trading-baskets portion of the game. But, hey, that certainly helped keep L.A. from ever mounting a threat.
Blocking and tackling: The Lynx only out-shot L.A. 49 percent to 48, but out-rebounded 'em 37-25 including 13-4 on the offensive end. WNBA.com wrote in its pre-game analysis that rebounding could decide the game. I'd say that's pretty smart. Rebekah Brunson had 10, Seimone 6, Maya 5 and Amber Harris 4.
Bench: Our bench out-scored their bench 26-15.
So, anyway, wow. How a team could struggle so mightily vs. Seattle and then blow out L.A. is beyond me. It's all about match-ups, they say, and that, too, looks pretty smart. They'll probably match-up differently in game 2 in L.A., however. Game 2 is on Sunday. Game 3, if necessary, is on Wednesday.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Lynx avoid upset to Seattle, but barely....
The Lynx didn't beat Seattle, they survived. Lauren Jackson missed a short jumper with 1.2 seconds left, and so a 73-72 lead held up for Minnesota.
Karma seemed to be with the Storm. Jackson made a 3 at the buzzer in regulation in game 2, leading to a Seattle win in 2OT. And tonight Tanisha Wright made a 3 at the 1st halftime buzzer, getting Seattle within 36-35. Then Smith hit another 3 at the 3rd quarter buzzer to get Seattle within 56-55.
Seattle finally caught up at 60 and 62 but Rebekah Brunson scored 4 straight baskets, 3 off of the offensive boards, and 5 altogether in the 4th period. Then Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus and Taj McWilliams-Franklin each scored to get the Lynx to 73. It was just enough as Seattle ran out of magic at the end.
On September 1, I wrote that the Lynx would repeat as WNBA champion IF:
1. If they tightened up their inside defense. They did a decent job against 3-time WNBA MVP Lauren Jackson of Seattle overall though Jackson scored a couple of very very big buckets at crunch time. Candace Parker of L.A. and then 2012 league MVP Tina Charles (if the Lynx get to the finals) will be vastly tougher opponents so watch out! Inside Defense Grade (so far in the playoffs): C.
2. If they don't get torched at 3-ball. Seattle outscored the Lynx from 34-point land 66-33 (22 3s to 11). The Storm made 22-of-61 (365) while the Lynx made 11-of-35 (31%). And Seattle, of course, seemed to hit a big 3 every time it was really needed. 3-Ball Grade: C-.
3. If Lindsay Whalen picks it up. I noted that potential playoff opponents Becky Hammon, Kara Lawson and Kristi Tolliver had outplayed her. But she did pick it up during September.
But Seattle's Sue Bird showed why she and not Lindsay was the starting point guard for the U.S. Olympians in this sseries. Bird outscored Whalen by an average of 16-12 per game, out-assisted her 7-5 and had 2 steals per game to Lindsay's 1. Bird shot 44 percent from the field, Lindsay 27 percent.
In games 2 and 3 Bird scored 20 ppg to Lindsay's 8. In game 3 it was 19-6, and Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve played Lindsay just 25 minutes and reach down into her bench to give Candice Wiggins 12 minutes and even Erin Thorn 3, looking for some impact at the "1."
Granted, Bird is "the best point guard on the planet," according to Geno Auriemma, but Kristi Tolliver is a lot quicker and has given Lindsay fits during the regular season. Lindsay's Grade: C.
4. If Maya Moore picks it up. This is a matter of Maya asserting herself like she did in the Olympics, no longer deferring to Augustus. And she has, overtaking Seimone as the Lynx leading scorer, 16.6 ppg to 16.5. Against Seattle (3 games) Moore pretty much hit her average with 16 ppg on 40 percent shooting, plus 6 boards and 3 assists. Seimone really picked it up, scoring 20 ppg on 46 percent shooting, with 6 boards and 2 steals. Maya's Grade: B.
5. If they do the positive things they've done all year. That is, if they out-shoot their opponents 49-39 percent and out-rebound them 37-31. Against the Storm they got out-shot 41-40 percent but out-rebounded Seattle 37-34. Grade: B-.
Bottom line, they played B- ball against Seattle and managed to win. Against the L.A. Sparks, they've got to pick it up: 1) Inside D vs. Parker. 2) Lindsay is going to have to pick it up against Tolliver. 3) Out-shoot and out-rebound the Sparks. Do these things at least at a B+ level and the Lynx win. Continue at a B- level and the Lynx lose. It's that simple.
Karma seemed to be with the Storm. Jackson made a 3 at the buzzer in regulation in game 2, leading to a Seattle win in 2OT. And tonight Tanisha Wright made a 3 at the 1st halftime buzzer, getting Seattle within 36-35. Then Smith hit another 3 at the 3rd quarter buzzer to get Seattle within 56-55.
Seattle finally caught up at 60 and 62 but Rebekah Brunson scored 4 straight baskets, 3 off of the offensive boards, and 5 altogether in the 4th period. Then Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus and Taj McWilliams-Franklin each scored to get the Lynx to 73. It was just enough as Seattle ran out of magic at the end.
On September 1, I wrote that the Lynx would repeat as WNBA champion IF:
1. If they tightened up their inside defense. They did a decent job against 3-time WNBA MVP Lauren Jackson of Seattle overall though Jackson scored a couple of very very big buckets at crunch time. Candace Parker of L.A. and then 2012 league MVP Tina Charles (if the Lynx get to the finals) will be vastly tougher opponents so watch out! Inside Defense Grade (so far in the playoffs): C.
2. If they don't get torched at 3-ball. Seattle outscored the Lynx from 34-point land 66-33 (22 3s to 11). The Storm made 22-of-61 (365) while the Lynx made 11-of-35 (31%). And Seattle, of course, seemed to hit a big 3 every time it was really needed. 3-Ball Grade: C-.
3. If Lindsay Whalen picks it up. I noted that potential playoff opponents Becky Hammon, Kara Lawson and Kristi Tolliver had outplayed her. But she did pick it up during September.
But Seattle's Sue Bird showed why she and not Lindsay was the starting point guard for the U.S. Olympians in this sseries. Bird outscored Whalen by an average of 16-12 per game, out-assisted her 7-5 and had 2 steals per game to Lindsay's 1. Bird shot 44 percent from the field, Lindsay 27 percent.
In games 2 and 3 Bird scored 20 ppg to Lindsay's 8. In game 3 it was 19-6, and Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve played Lindsay just 25 minutes and reach down into her bench to give Candice Wiggins 12 minutes and even Erin Thorn 3, looking for some impact at the "1."
Granted, Bird is "the best point guard on the planet," according to Geno Auriemma, but Kristi Tolliver is a lot quicker and has given Lindsay fits during the regular season. Lindsay's Grade: C.
4. If Maya Moore picks it up. This is a matter of Maya asserting herself like she did in the Olympics, no longer deferring to Augustus. And she has, overtaking Seimone as the Lynx leading scorer, 16.6 ppg to 16.5. Against Seattle (3 games) Moore pretty much hit her average with 16 ppg on 40 percent shooting, plus 6 boards and 3 assists. Seimone really picked it up, scoring 20 ppg on 46 percent shooting, with 6 boards and 2 steals. Maya's Grade: B.
5. If they do the positive things they've done all year. That is, if they out-shoot their opponents 49-39 percent and out-rebound them 37-31. Against the Storm they got out-shot 41-40 percent but out-rebounded Seattle 37-34. Grade: B-.
Bottom line, they played B- ball against Seattle and managed to win. Against the L.A. Sparks, they've got to pick it up: 1) Inside D vs. Parker. 2) Lindsay is going to have to pick it up against Tolliver. 3) Out-shoot and out-rebound the Sparks. Do these things at least at a B+ level and the Lynx win. Continue at a B- level and the Lynx lose. It's that simple.
Monday, October 1, 2012
Seattle 86 Lynx 79 2OT. Go On to Game 3.
The Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm will return to the Target Center for game 3 of their 1st round WNBA playoff series after the Storm outlasted the Lynx 86-79 in 2OT in game 2. The 2 teams will meet on Tuesday night October 2,
The Lynx led most of the way but just as in game 1, every Lynx lead precipitated the Seattle rally. It was 27-18 at the quarter break, for example, and 31-18 early in the 2nd period as Minnesota bridged the 1st and 2nd quarters with a 16-0 run. Maya Moore scored 7 of those 16 points while Monica Wright added 4.
Seattle roared back with a 15-3 run to get within 1 at halftime.
The Lynx then opened the 3rd with a quick 7-points. Seimone Augustus scored 9 quick points in the 3rd, and Minnesota led by as much as 10 (57-47). But again Seattle roared back to tie at 63. Still the Lynx led 69-65 with just 17 ticks left on the clock, and 70-67 when Taj Franklin-McWilliams missed a probable game and series-clinchng FT at 11 seconds. Lauren Jackson followed with a 3 with 1.1 seconds remaining to force OT.
The Lynx never trailed in the 1st OT but another 3, this one by Tanisha Wright at 24 seconds, forced the 2nd OT. This time it was Seattle that scored 1st to take the lead for only the 2nd time since 18-15. The Lynx never caught up, making just 2-of-7 shots in the 2nd OT while Seattle made 4-of-8. A Rebekah Brunson bucket at 2:06 got Minnesota within 81-79, but the Lynx never scored again.
Once again, it was not 3-time league MVP Jackson, just back from an injury, who was Seattle's secret weapon, it was their defense. The Lynx shot just 32.5 percent from the field (25 buckets out of 77 attempts) while Seattle shot 40 percent (31-of-77). The possession game was a wash as each team got 12 offensive boards, while Minnesota had 15 turnovers and the Storm 16.
After takiong its largest lead of the 2nd half at 57-47, Minnesota made just 3-of-16 FG the rest of the way, and all 3 were Brunson put-backs off the offensive glass. There were a remarkable zero baskets off the initial offense over the final 12:18 of regulation.
Jackson had 9 points, 14 boards, no assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks. Not a bad night's work. But the Lynx-killers were guards Sue Bird and Wright with 40 points on 13-of-23 shooting, plus 14 assists and 6 steals.
Brunson and Augustus led Minnesota with 22 and 20 points. Brunson added 15 boards. But the Lynx perimeter starters of Augustus, Moore and Lindsay Whalen made just 13-of-48 shots. Whalen was 2-for-15. The Lynx bench was out-scored 18-9.
The Lynx led most of the way but just as in game 1, every Lynx lead precipitated the Seattle rally. It was 27-18 at the quarter break, for example, and 31-18 early in the 2nd period as Minnesota bridged the 1st and 2nd quarters with a 16-0 run. Maya Moore scored 7 of those 16 points while Monica Wright added 4.
Seattle roared back with a 15-3 run to get within 1 at halftime.
The Lynx then opened the 3rd with a quick 7-points. Seimone Augustus scored 9 quick points in the 3rd, and Minnesota led by as much as 10 (57-47). But again Seattle roared back to tie at 63. Still the Lynx led 69-65 with just 17 ticks left on the clock, and 70-67 when Taj Franklin-McWilliams missed a probable game and series-clinchng FT at 11 seconds. Lauren Jackson followed with a 3 with 1.1 seconds remaining to force OT.
The Lynx never trailed in the 1st OT but another 3, this one by Tanisha Wright at 24 seconds, forced the 2nd OT. This time it was Seattle that scored 1st to take the lead for only the 2nd time since 18-15. The Lynx never caught up, making just 2-of-7 shots in the 2nd OT while Seattle made 4-of-8. A Rebekah Brunson bucket at 2:06 got Minnesota within 81-79, but the Lynx never scored again.
Once again, it was not 3-time league MVP Jackson, just back from an injury, who was Seattle's secret weapon, it was their defense. The Lynx shot just 32.5 percent from the field (25 buckets out of 77 attempts) while Seattle shot 40 percent (31-of-77). The possession game was a wash as each team got 12 offensive boards, while Minnesota had 15 turnovers and the Storm 16.
After takiong its largest lead of the 2nd half at 57-47, Minnesota made just 3-of-16 FG the rest of the way, and all 3 were Brunson put-backs off the offensive glass. There were a remarkable zero baskets off the initial offense over the final 12:18 of regulation.
Jackson had 9 points, 14 boards, no assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks. Not a bad night's work. But the Lynx-killers were guards Sue Bird and Wright with 40 points on 13-of-23 shooting, plus 14 assists and 6 steals.
Brunson and Augustus led Minnesota with 22 and 20 points. Brunson added 15 boards. But the Lynx perimeter starters of Augustus, Moore and Lindsay Whalen made just 13-of-48 shots. Whalen was 2-for-15. The Lynx bench was out-scored 18-9.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Lynx outlast Storm, one down 6 to go
The Minnesota Lynx opened defense of their WNBA title with, well, not one of their better games. But it was good enough to defeat the Seattle Storm 78-70 at Target Center. The series now shifts to Seattle, with game three (if necessary) back home on Tuesday.
The Lynx ran out to an early 9-1 lead but Seattle tied it up at 15-15. The Lynx led by 10 late in the 2nd quarter, and 57-40 late in the 3rd, but the Storm again came back to within 6 at 69-63, 71-65 and 73-67 inside of a minute-and-a-half in the game. But Seattle never led, and the Lynx made 5-of-6 FT down the stretch to ice it.
Seattle was 16-18 this year after winning the WNBA title as recently as 2010. But 3-time league MVP Lauren Jackson missed most of the year, first playing with the Australian Olympic team and later with a hamstring injury. Jackson came back in the final week of the season and tonight she contributed 12 points and 3 boards for the Storm.
More instrumental in Seattle's gutsy showing was bench play from veteran Tina Thompson and rookie Shennika Stricklen, who combined for 22 points and 14 rebounds between them. The Wolves' vaunted bench scored just 5 points on this night.
And Seattle's league-leading defense kept 'em in the game, too. Minnesota shot 46 percent for the night, but made 8 straight shots to start the 3rd quarter (Seimone Augustus and Lindsay Whalen 2 FG each) to take that 57-40 lead. The rest of the night the Lynx shot 37.5 percent including 36 percent in each of the 2nd and 4th periods.
Whalen led all scorers with 20 points and added 6 assists. Augustus scored 19 points, Maya Moore 16 and Rebekah Brunson 12. Moore added 7 boards and 5 assists, and Brunson added 11 boards, 2 steals and 2 blocks.
The Lynx out-shot the Storm 46%-40% from the field, 40-29% on 3s and 79-56.5% on free throws. (Actually Seattle's FG shooting percentage was 39.6, and so the Lynx improved to 18-0 when holding opponents below 40 percent.) And a good thing, too, as they lost the possession game. Minnesota had just 3 offensive boards all night, Seattle had 6, and the turnovers were 12 for Seattle and 13 for Minnesota.
The Lynx are trying to become the 1st WNBA repeat champion since L.A. way back in 2001 and 2002. The Sparks opened their playoffs with a come-from-behind 93-86 win over San Antonio on Friday night, while Connecticut and Atlanta won 1st round games in the East. Atlanta was the only team to win on the road, taking Indiana 75-66.
WNBA Awards
Tina Charles of Connecticut was named MVP Thursday night, while Kristi Tolliver of L.A. was named Most Improved and Renee Montgomery of Connecticut won the 6th Player award. And yet another Connecticut player, Kara Lawson won the Sportsmanship Award. Angel McCoughtry of Atlanta, Charles and Whalen won Performance Awards for leading the league in scoring, boards and assists, respectively. No word on Rookie of the Year as of yet.
The Lynx ran out to an early 9-1 lead but Seattle tied it up at 15-15. The Lynx led by 10 late in the 2nd quarter, and 57-40 late in the 3rd, but the Storm again came back to within 6 at 69-63, 71-65 and 73-67 inside of a minute-and-a-half in the game. But Seattle never led, and the Lynx made 5-of-6 FT down the stretch to ice it.
Seattle was 16-18 this year after winning the WNBA title as recently as 2010. But 3-time league MVP Lauren Jackson missed most of the year, first playing with the Australian Olympic team and later with a hamstring injury. Jackson came back in the final week of the season and tonight she contributed 12 points and 3 boards for the Storm.
More instrumental in Seattle's gutsy showing was bench play from veteran Tina Thompson and rookie Shennika Stricklen, who combined for 22 points and 14 rebounds between them. The Wolves' vaunted bench scored just 5 points on this night.
And Seattle's league-leading defense kept 'em in the game, too. Minnesota shot 46 percent for the night, but made 8 straight shots to start the 3rd quarter (Seimone Augustus and Lindsay Whalen 2 FG each) to take that 57-40 lead. The rest of the night the Lynx shot 37.5 percent including 36 percent in each of the 2nd and 4th periods.
Whalen led all scorers with 20 points and added 6 assists. Augustus scored 19 points, Maya Moore 16 and Rebekah Brunson 12. Moore added 7 boards and 5 assists, and Brunson added 11 boards, 2 steals and 2 blocks.
The Lynx out-shot the Storm 46%-40% from the field, 40-29% on 3s and 79-56.5% on free throws. (Actually Seattle's FG shooting percentage was 39.6, and so the Lynx improved to 18-0 when holding opponents below 40 percent.) And a good thing, too, as they lost the possession game. Minnesota had just 3 offensive boards all night, Seattle had 6, and the turnovers were 12 for Seattle and 13 for Minnesota.
The Lynx are trying to become the 1st WNBA repeat champion since L.A. way back in 2001 and 2002. The Sparks opened their playoffs with a come-from-behind 93-86 win over San Antonio on Friday night, while Connecticut and Atlanta won 1st round games in the East. Atlanta was the only team to win on the road, taking Indiana 75-66.
WNBA Awards
Tina Charles of Connecticut was named MVP Thursday night, while Kristi Tolliver of L.A. was named Most Improved and Renee Montgomery of Connecticut won the 6th Player award. And yet another Connecticut player, Kara Lawson won the Sportsmanship Award. Angel McCoughtry of Atlanta, Charles and Whalen won Performance Awards for leading the league in scoring, boards and assists, respectively. No word on Rookie of the Year as of yet.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Lynx lose 2 of 3 going into playoffs. So what?
The Minnesota Lynx open the defense of their WNBA title on Friday (September 28) at the Target Center against the Seattle Storm having lost 2 of their final 3 games. So what?
Well, it's fair to say that the Lynx and their fans expect a repeat, but that it won't be easy and an upset in the Western Division finals is not out of the question. Assuming they get by the Storm (16-18) which, frankly, seems likely, they'll get the L.A. Sparks or the San Antonio Silver Stars. The Sparks hammered the Lynx 92-76 last week while it was the Stars who clobbered the Lynx yesterday 99-84.
Still, the Lynx finished up with a stellar 27-7 record, compared to 25-9 for Eastern Division leader Connecticut, 24-10 for L.A. and 21-13 for the San Antonio Silver Stars. None of that means a whole lot, of course. Any of these 4 has the talent to win the WNBA title, it's a question of who plays best over the next 7 to 10 games. But it does get the Lynx the home court advantage throughout the playoffs, and everybody knows that that's a pretty good deal maker.
The Five
What else is a deal maker for the Lynx is--well, everybody knows about their 3 Olympians--Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsay Whalen. But seriously, I prefer to think about their starting 5 including Rebekah Brunson and Taj McWilliams-Franklin. All 5 of them are back from the 2011 championship edition of the Lynx, and the fact is that as a 5 they've been better than they were a year ago.
Last year the team's MVP was either Augustus or Whalen, and between the 2 of them they split enough of the vote to finish 5th and 6th in the voting. This year it's Augustus and Moore who have stood out, and who will split up the MVP voting and probably finish 5th and 6th, or maybe 4th and 5th. All 3 played great ball and contributed mightily to the U.S. Olympic gold medal this summer. Nobody can put a dynamic trio on the court like these ladies.
Augustus remains the 1st option. She finished the year with 16.5 ppg on 49 percent shooting with 4 boards and 2.5 assists just for good measure. (Last year she was at 16.2, 50 percent, 3.5 boards and 2 assists.) Not only that but she's become the Lynx' defensive stopper, more often than not being assigned to the opponent's top perimeter threat.
Moore has, of course, come on like gangbusters, as everyone expected her to do. She overtook Seimone for the team scoring lead with 16.6 ppg on 47 percent shooting, and added 6 boards and 4 assists (compared to 13 ppg, 44 percent, 5 and 3 a year ago).
Lindsay seems to have slipped, I suppose. She's not mentioned as the team's MVP anymore. But 11.5 ppg on 51 percent shooting with 5 assists and 4 rebounds in hardly child's play. (Last year she was at 13.6, 51 percent, 5 assists and 3.5 rebounds. The bottom line is she took 68 fewer shots than a year ago.) And anybody who saw the Lynx flounder against L.A. last week with Lindsay out for the night knows what a difference she makes regardless of what the box score says.
Meanwhile Brunson and Taj have more than held their own in the paint with 20 ppg, 14 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks between them. (Last year it was 18.5 ppg, 15 boards, 4 assists and 2 steals.)
The Bench
But, along with Moore, the biggest improvement has been in the Lynx bench, and specifically rookie Devereaux Peters and 3rd year Monica Wright. Peters is scoring 5 points with 4 boards on 57 percent shooting, and has come on like gangbusters just recently--10 ppg, 11 boards, 3 assists and 3 blocks per game these past 3 outings. Wright is up to 8 ppg on 45 percent shooting versus last year's 5 and 37 percent.
As a Team
And as a team they've improved on most of their numbers from a year ago, out-scoring opponents by 10 (86-76) versus 8 (82-74) a year ago. They're out-rebounding 'em 38-31 versus 36-30 in 2011. They're out-shooting 'em 47-40%, while a year ago it was 46-41%. And they're getting 21 assists per game versus 18 a year ago, while opponents got 15 each year.
So the 2012 Lynx look better than their 2011 alter ego.
The Challenge
But the challenge is not to be better than the 2011 Lynx, it is to be better than the 2012 Sparks, Stars, Sun and so forth, and all of their main challengers look better than a year ago, too. Connecticut, #1 seed in the east, is 24-9 right now versus 21-13 a year ago. L.A. is 24-10 compared to a mere 15-19 last year, when Candace Parker missed 15 games and the Sparks missed the playoffs. San Antone is 20-13 versus 18-16 last year, when they nevertheless carried the Lynx to a 3rd game in their Western semi-final series.
Fortunately we'll only play one of L.A. and San Antone, because those are a couple of tough hombres. Personally I think we'll get the Sparks, if only because they (the Sparks) have the home court advantage against the Silver Stars in the other Western semi. But they also have the WNBA's best player who won't win the MVP award in Parker. Her numbers are slightly inferior to Tina Charles' and so the award will go to Tina. But at crunch time, personally, I'd rather not face Parker. But in addition to Parker being healthy, L.A. also has a more mature Kristi Toliver, who raised her scoring from 11 ppg to 17.5 this year, and her assists from 3 to 5. She's become, simply, one of the WNBA's premier point guards, surpassing San Antone's Becky Hammon in the process.
But the bottom line is the Lynx are the better team. As we saw (above) they out-scored their opponents by an average of 10 points (86-76). For L.A. it was 84-78, San Antone 82-77 and Connecticut also 82-77.
The Lynx out-shot their opponents (all FG) 47-40%. L.A. 46-42, San Antone 44.5-43, while the Sun were 43-43.
The Lynx out-rebounded our opponents 38-31. L.A. 37-34. San Antone and Connecticut were both out-rebounded 33-35 and 34-35, respectively.
Again, that's too many advantages. Besides, when the Lynx lost to L.A. and San Antone--first, against L.A. Augustus was just back after missing 3 games with a sprained right foot, and Whalen was sidelined with a cold. Against San Antone, it was Brunson who got a rest (of course, it should be pointed out that San Antone rested both of its big guns, Sophia Young and Becky Hammon).
But Wait, What About Seattle
Yes, I'm overlooking Seattle, which is probably not a good idea considering they were WNBA champs as recently as 2010 (to go with a previous title in 2004) and boast 3-time WNBA MVP Lauren Jackson (2003, 2007, 2010). Jackson played in just 9 games this year, but is now back from a left hamstring injury. And with Sue Bird, whom Geno Auriemma called "the greatest point guard on the planet," also in the lineup, Seattle might be described as a dark horse.
Or maybe not. I think not. The Lynx have trouble matching up with elite post players, but Jackson is no longer playing on the level of Charles and Parker. And Lindsay Whalen neutralizes Bird as well as any point guard in the league. And the two of them just don't have enough help. Lynx in 2.
Then in the Finals
L.A. falls short of the WNBA finals, winning 3 games at home (2 against San Antone and 1 against the Lynx) but none on the road. That means they're 2-1 in the semis, but 1-2 in the division finals. And the Lynx will move on to face Connecticut and likely MVP Charles.
Here's why. Because the Lynx have too many weapons, too much balance and too many smarts. They'll take what the opposition gives them. And they'll play with all the intensity that its opponents can possibly bring, and then some.
And that is also why they take the Sun. But this one goes a full 5 games for the 1st time since 2009, and the Lynx again prevail 3-2. Tina Charles, Kara Lawson and Renee Montgomery typically give the Lynx fits, but Olympian Aisha Jones has been slowed by injury and that could be the fatal blow to the Sun's championship dreams.
Well, it's fair to say that the Lynx and their fans expect a repeat, but that it won't be easy and an upset in the Western Division finals is not out of the question. Assuming they get by the Storm (16-18) which, frankly, seems likely, they'll get the L.A. Sparks or the San Antonio Silver Stars. The Sparks hammered the Lynx 92-76 last week while it was the Stars who clobbered the Lynx yesterday 99-84.
Still, the Lynx finished up with a stellar 27-7 record, compared to 25-9 for Eastern Division leader Connecticut, 24-10 for L.A. and 21-13 for the San Antonio Silver Stars. None of that means a whole lot, of course. Any of these 4 has the talent to win the WNBA title, it's a question of who plays best over the next 7 to 10 games. But it does get the Lynx the home court advantage throughout the playoffs, and everybody knows that that's a pretty good deal maker.
The Five
What else is a deal maker for the Lynx is--well, everybody knows about their 3 Olympians--Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsay Whalen. But seriously, I prefer to think about their starting 5 including Rebekah Brunson and Taj McWilliams-Franklin. All 5 of them are back from the 2011 championship edition of the Lynx, and the fact is that as a 5 they've been better than they were a year ago.
Last year the team's MVP was either Augustus or Whalen, and between the 2 of them they split enough of the vote to finish 5th and 6th in the voting. This year it's Augustus and Moore who have stood out, and who will split up the MVP voting and probably finish 5th and 6th, or maybe 4th and 5th. All 3 played great ball and contributed mightily to the U.S. Olympic gold medal this summer. Nobody can put a dynamic trio on the court like these ladies.
Augustus remains the 1st option. She finished the year with 16.5 ppg on 49 percent shooting with 4 boards and 2.5 assists just for good measure. (Last year she was at 16.2, 50 percent, 3.5 boards and 2 assists.) Not only that but she's become the Lynx' defensive stopper, more often than not being assigned to the opponent's top perimeter threat.
Moore has, of course, come on like gangbusters, as everyone expected her to do. She overtook Seimone for the team scoring lead with 16.6 ppg on 47 percent shooting, and added 6 boards and 4 assists (compared to 13 ppg, 44 percent, 5 and 3 a year ago).
Lindsay seems to have slipped, I suppose. She's not mentioned as the team's MVP anymore. But 11.5 ppg on 51 percent shooting with 5 assists and 4 rebounds in hardly child's play. (Last year she was at 13.6, 51 percent, 5 assists and 3.5 rebounds. The bottom line is she took 68 fewer shots than a year ago.) And anybody who saw the Lynx flounder against L.A. last week with Lindsay out for the night knows what a difference she makes regardless of what the box score says.
Meanwhile Brunson and Taj have more than held their own in the paint with 20 ppg, 14 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks between them. (Last year it was 18.5 ppg, 15 boards, 4 assists and 2 steals.)
The Bench
But, along with Moore, the biggest improvement has been in the Lynx bench, and specifically rookie Devereaux Peters and 3rd year Monica Wright. Peters is scoring 5 points with 4 boards on 57 percent shooting, and has come on like gangbusters just recently--10 ppg, 11 boards, 3 assists and 3 blocks per game these past 3 outings. Wright is up to 8 ppg on 45 percent shooting versus last year's 5 and 37 percent.
As a Team
And as a team they've improved on most of their numbers from a year ago, out-scoring opponents by 10 (86-76) versus 8 (82-74) a year ago. They're out-rebounding 'em 38-31 versus 36-30 in 2011. They're out-shooting 'em 47-40%, while a year ago it was 46-41%. And they're getting 21 assists per game versus 18 a year ago, while opponents got 15 each year.
So the 2012 Lynx look better than their 2011 alter ego.
The Challenge
But the challenge is not to be better than the 2011 Lynx, it is to be better than the 2012 Sparks, Stars, Sun and so forth, and all of their main challengers look better than a year ago, too. Connecticut, #1 seed in the east, is 24-9 right now versus 21-13 a year ago. L.A. is 24-10 compared to a mere 15-19 last year, when Candace Parker missed 15 games and the Sparks missed the playoffs. San Antone is 20-13 versus 18-16 last year, when they nevertheless carried the Lynx to a 3rd game in their Western semi-final series.
Fortunately we'll only play one of L.A. and San Antone, because those are a couple of tough hombres. Personally I think we'll get the Sparks, if only because they (the Sparks) have the home court advantage against the Silver Stars in the other Western semi. But they also have the WNBA's best player who won't win the MVP award in Parker. Her numbers are slightly inferior to Tina Charles' and so the award will go to Tina. But at crunch time, personally, I'd rather not face Parker. But in addition to Parker being healthy, L.A. also has a more mature Kristi Toliver, who raised her scoring from 11 ppg to 17.5 this year, and her assists from 3 to 5. She's become, simply, one of the WNBA's premier point guards, surpassing San Antone's Becky Hammon in the process.
But the bottom line is the Lynx are the better team. As we saw (above) they out-scored their opponents by an average of 10 points (86-76). For L.A. it was 84-78, San Antone 82-77 and Connecticut also 82-77.
The Lynx out-shot their opponents (all FG) 47-40%. L.A. 46-42, San Antone 44.5-43, while the Sun were 43-43.
The Lynx out-rebounded our opponents 38-31. L.A. 37-34. San Antone and Connecticut were both out-rebounded 33-35 and 34-35, respectively.
Again, that's too many advantages. Besides, when the Lynx lost to L.A. and San Antone--first, against L.A. Augustus was just back after missing 3 games with a sprained right foot, and Whalen was sidelined with a cold. Against San Antone, it was Brunson who got a rest (of course, it should be pointed out that San Antone rested both of its big guns, Sophia Young and Becky Hammon).
But Wait, What About Seattle
Yes, I'm overlooking Seattle, which is probably not a good idea considering they were WNBA champs as recently as 2010 (to go with a previous title in 2004) and boast 3-time WNBA MVP Lauren Jackson (2003, 2007, 2010). Jackson played in just 9 games this year, but is now back from a left hamstring injury. And with Sue Bird, whom Geno Auriemma called "the greatest point guard on the planet," also in the lineup, Seattle might be described as a dark horse.
Or maybe not. I think not. The Lynx have trouble matching up with elite post players, but Jackson is no longer playing on the level of Charles and Parker. And Lindsay Whalen neutralizes Bird as well as any point guard in the league. And the two of them just don't have enough help. Lynx in 2.
Then in the Finals
L.A. falls short of the WNBA finals, winning 3 games at home (2 against San Antone and 1 against the Lynx) but none on the road. That means they're 2-1 in the semis, but 1-2 in the division finals. And the Lynx will move on to face Connecticut and likely MVP Charles.
Here's why. Because the Lynx have too many weapons, too much balance and too many smarts. They'll take what the opposition gives them. And they'll play with all the intensity that its opponents can possibly bring, and then some.
And that is also why they take the Sun. But this one goes a full 5 games for the 1st time since 2009, and the Lynx again prevail 3-2. Tina Charles, Kara Lawson and Renee Montgomery typically give the Lynx fits, but Olympian Aisha Jones has been slowed by injury and that could be the fatal blow to the Sun's championship dreams.
Monday, September 10, 2012
Lynx: Wow!
If the Lynx were ever going to lose, this was the game. On the road. At one of 4 teams to beat the Lynx this year. Seimone Augustus is out with a foot injury.
But, no. The Lynx dominated the 2nd quarter 25-11 to take a 47-29 half-time lead and never looked back. OK, San Antone got within 59-50 after 3. But with Sophia Young (20 points) the only Silver Star in double figures, they couldn't keep it going and the Lynx pulled away in the 4th for an 81-62 final. A shockingly easy win, again, with Seimone on the sidelines.
Maya Moore again led the way with 18 points and 12 boards, though Rebekah Brunson was right there, too, with 15 and 12. Lindsay Whalen and Monica Wright, starting in place of Augustus, each scored 11. Minnesota shot 55 percent, San Antone 36. Our bench, even with Wright starting, out-scored the Stars' 22-15.
With wins at L.A. and now San Antone, the Lynx are 5 up in the division and 3 up overall for home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Even with 5 of 6 remaining games on the road, the Lynx seem likely to hold on to that advantage, and that would seem to double the likelihood of a repeat WNBA title. Well, if L.A. and San Antone can't play the Lynx any tougher than they have recently, even the home court might not matter.
But, no. The Lynx dominated the 2nd quarter 25-11 to take a 47-29 half-time lead and never looked back. OK, San Antone got within 59-50 after 3. But with Sophia Young (20 points) the only Silver Star in double figures, they couldn't keep it going and the Lynx pulled away in the 4th for an 81-62 final. A shockingly easy win, again, with Seimone on the sidelines.
Maya Moore again led the way with 18 points and 12 boards, though Rebekah Brunson was right there, too, with 15 and 12. Lindsay Whalen and Monica Wright, starting in place of Augustus, each scored 11. Minnesota shot 55 percent, San Antone 36. Our bench, even with Wright starting, out-scored the Stars' 22-15.
With wins at L.A. and now San Antone, the Lynx are 5 up in the division and 3 up overall for home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Even with 5 of 6 remaining games on the road, the Lynx seem likely to hold on to that advantage, and that would seem to double the likelihood of a repeat WNBA title. Well, if L.A. and San Antone can't play the Lynx any tougher than they have recently, even the home court might not matter.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
An Improbable Win for the Lynx, Who Eye Homecourt Advantage
The Minnesota Lynx roared back from a 25 point deficit late in the 1st half to defeat the Atlanta Dream in a rematch of last year's WNBA finals. The Lynx outscored Atlanta 6-2 to close out the 1st half and to begin getting back in the game.
But the heavy lifting came in the 3rd quarter, and much of it by Rebekah Brunson who scored 10 points in the period on just 2-of-6 FG and 6-of-8 FT, while adding 8 boards, 4 on each end of the floor, a block and a tie up leading to a change of possession.
Maya Moore added 8 points including 2 FT at 1:11 that got the margin into the single digits going into the 4th quarter.
Moore then hit a pull-up jumper at 5:47 of the 4th to get the Lynx within 4, and 17 seconds later blocked an Atlanta shot, leading to a transition 3 by Seimone Augustus on an assist by Candace Wiggins. Suddenly it was a 1 point margin. A minute later Moore hit a 3 on a assist by Taj McWilliams-Franklin to tie it up. Moore scored 2 more buckets, then assisted on a Taj bucket with 30 seconds remaining to tie it up once again. Taj followed with a block to force OT.
In the 1st OT Atlanta needed a driving layup by Angel McCoughtry at 0:00.3 tie force the 2nd OT. In the 2nd OT the Lynx hit 5-of-7 while the Dream hit just 2-of-6 with 3 turnovers. Still it was only a Taj bucket from Lindsay Whalen at 42 seconds that put the Lynx ahead for good.
The Lynx out-shot Atlanta 43-40 percent and 31-24 on the 3, and out-scored the Dream from the line 26-14. But the Lynx lost the possession game with 19 turnovers to 13 for Atlanta, and 17 offensive boards to 18 for the Dream.
Still the Lynx won the game on the inside as Moore and Brunson combined for 38 points and 30 boards. But Atlanta guards McCoughtry and Lindsay Harding outscored Seimone and Lindsay from the backcourt 53-27. In a statistical oddity, each of the Lynx' 5 starters shot the ball 13 times from the floor.
The Lynx move to 23-4, 3 games ahead overall and 4 within the division in the battle for homecourt in the playoffs. But 6 of the Lynx' final 7 games are on the road including 2 at San Antonio and 1 at L.A. A 3-4 finish would not be a surprise. San Antone gets 6 of 8 at home with road games only at lowly Seattle and Tulsa (18-35 between them), while L.A. get 4 of 6 (and all of its last 4 games) at home with an eastern swing to Washington and New York (a combined 16-40). San Antone could easily go 7-1 and L.A. 6-0 down the stretch.
If that happened:
Minnesota 3-4 finishes 26-8
San Antone 7-1/23-11
L.A. 6-0/25-9
Connecticut, meanwhile, gets 4 of 7 at home, but lost to Phoenix at home last night to drop to 20-8. A 5-1 finish is not unlikely, which gets 'em to 25-9.
So I still think the Lynx will get home court throughout the playoffs, despite a tough finish to the regular season. But it could be a close call.
But the heavy lifting came in the 3rd quarter, and much of it by Rebekah Brunson who scored 10 points in the period on just 2-of-6 FG and 6-of-8 FT, while adding 8 boards, 4 on each end of the floor, a block and a tie up leading to a change of possession.
Maya Moore added 8 points including 2 FT at 1:11 that got the margin into the single digits going into the 4th quarter.
Moore then hit a pull-up jumper at 5:47 of the 4th to get the Lynx within 4, and 17 seconds later blocked an Atlanta shot, leading to a transition 3 by Seimone Augustus on an assist by Candace Wiggins. Suddenly it was a 1 point margin. A minute later Moore hit a 3 on a assist by Taj McWilliams-Franklin to tie it up. Moore scored 2 more buckets, then assisted on a Taj bucket with 30 seconds remaining to tie it up once again. Taj followed with a block to force OT.
In the 1st OT Atlanta needed a driving layup by Angel McCoughtry at 0:00.3 tie force the 2nd OT. In the 2nd OT the Lynx hit 5-of-7 while the Dream hit just 2-of-6 with 3 turnovers. Still it was only a Taj bucket from Lindsay Whalen at 42 seconds that put the Lynx ahead for good.
The Lynx out-shot Atlanta 43-40 percent and 31-24 on the 3, and out-scored the Dream from the line 26-14. But the Lynx lost the possession game with 19 turnovers to 13 for Atlanta, and 17 offensive boards to 18 for the Dream.
Still the Lynx won the game on the inside as Moore and Brunson combined for 38 points and 30 boards. But Atlanta guards McCoughtry and Lindsay Harding outscored Seimone and Lindsay from the backcourt 53-27. In a statistical oddity, each of the Lynx' 5 starters shot the ball 13 times from the floor.
The Lynx move to 23-4, 3 games ahead overall and 4 within the division in the battle for homecourt in the playoffs. But 6 of the Lynx' final 7 games are on the road including 2 at San Antonio and 1 at L.A. A 3-4 finish would not be a surprise. San Antone gets 6 of 8 at home with road games only at lowly Seattle and Tulsa (18-35 between them), while L.A. get 4 of 6 (and all of its last 4 games) at home with an eastern swing to Washington and New York (a combined 16-40). San Antone could easily go 7-1 and L.A. 6-0 down the stretch.
If that happened:
Minnesota 3-4 finishes 26-8
San Antone 7-1/23-11
L.A. 6-0/25-9
Connecticut, meanwhile, gets 4 of 7 at home, but lost to Phoenix at home last night to drop to 20-8. A 5-1 finish is not unlikely, which gets 'em to 25-9.
So I still think the Lynx will get home court throughout the playoffs, despite a tough finish to the regular season. But it could be a close call.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Lynx Find the Secret of Laugher vs. L.A. Sparks
The Minnesota Lynx discovered the secret to beating the L.A. Sparks Tuesday night at Target Center. All you gotta do is hold all-world post Candace Parker to 6 points on 3-of-8 shooting with 6 boards and 5 turnovers.
It only adds to the fun, then, if L.A.'s other all-star, point guard Kristi Tolliver, scores 5 points on 1-of-7 shooting while comitting 6 turnovers.
And, thank goodness, because Parker and Tolliver's teammates played plenty well enough to win with an average amount of help (which would mean about 37 points per game) from the two. Parker and Tolliver shot 4-for-15 (27 percent) while the rest of the Sparks shot a solid 26-for-47 (55 percent).
Meanwhile, the Lynx hit 10-of-their-1st-14 shots to take an early 20-10 lead, but the Sparks stormed back to within 20-19, then took a 26-24 lead in the 2nd period. But that, and 2-0, were their only leads of the night as the Lynx took leads of 41-37 at the half, 66-55 after 3, and 88-71 in the late going. The final was 88-77.
Chalk most of that up to Maya Moore who scored 23 points with 9 boards. She shot 9-of-18 while her teammates were just 23-of-58 (40 percent). But more than her scoring was Moore's defense. 7 of the Lynx' 11 steals were hers, and those steals led to perhaps as many as 7 or 8 breakaway layups, and those easy buckets were ultimately the difference in the score.
The Lynx, in other words, were outshot 46 percent to 42, but got off 14 more FGA than the Sparks.
Still, the game did not feel like it was over until we got inside of 3 minuites. Aussie Jenna O'Hea hit 4-of-5 3s including a pair in the 4th quarter that got L.A. within 66-60 at 8:51 and 79-69 at 4:50. Parker followed with a finger roll and it was 79-71 at 4:23.
But the Lynx responded with a Lindsay Whalen 2 + 1, a 3 by Seimone Augustus, and another Whalen layup off Moore's 7th and final steal and, at 87-71 at 2:54, now it was over.
Augustus matched Moore's 23 points on 6-of-10 shooting from beyond the 3-point arc, while Whalen and Candace Wiggins added 12 and 10. Augustus also was the primary defender versus Tolliver, while Mama Taj McWilliams-Franklin scored just 4 points but added 8 boards and 5 assists and she was the primary defender on Parker.
The Lynx bench contributed 19 points, but was out-scored again, 32-19. Once a strength for this team, the bench has not looked good at all since the Olympics. But Wiggins had a nice game, and Amber Harris added 6 points. Still, the bench looked like it was just holding on until the starters got rested and got back into the lineup.
But make no mistake. This was a tremendously physical game and the Lynx gave better than they got. The Lynx absolutely positively play the game very, very hard and at a high rate of speed. If you wanna beat the Lynx, you've got little choice but to try to shut down both Moore and Augustus, and that's a mighty challenge.
Still, this was an almost perfect effort from the Lynx, especially by their oft-maligned defense. As a result, the Lynx are now 4 games ahead of L.A. in the race for home court advantage in the playoffs within the division, and they're 3 games ahead of Connecticut overall. Good thing, too, as 6 of their remaining 8 games are on the road including 2 at San Antone and 1 at L.A. Next up: Atlanta at home this Friday at 7 p.m.
It only adds to the fun, then, if L.A.'s other all-star, point guard Kristi Tolliver, scores 5 points on 1-of-7 shooting while comitting 6 turnovers.
And, thank goodness, because Parker and Tolliver's teammates played plenty well enough to win with an average amount of help (which would mean about 37 points per game) from the two. Parker and Tolliver shot 4-for-15 (27 percent) while the rest of the Sparks shot a solid 26-for-47 (55 percent).
Meanwhile, the Lynx hit 10-of-their-1st-14 shots to take an early 20-10 lead, but the Sparks stormed back to within 20-19, then took a 26-24 lead in the 2nd period. But that, and 2-0, were their only leads of the night as the Lynx took leads of 41-37 at the half, 66-55 after 3, and 88-71 in the late going. The final was 88-77.
Chalk most of that up to Maya Moore who scored 23 points with 9 boards. She shot 9-of-18 while her teammates were just 23-of-58 (40 percent). But more than her scoring was Moore's defense. 7 of the Lynx' 11 steals were hers, and those steals led to perhaps as many as 7 or 8 breakaway layups, and those easy buckets were ultimately the difference in the score.
The Lynx, in other words, were outshot 46 percent to 42, but got off 14 more FGA than the Sparks.
Still, the game did not feel like it was over until we got inside of 3 minuites. Aussie Jenna O'Hea hit 4-of-5 3s including a pair in the 4th quarter that got L.A. within 66-60 at 8:51 and 79-69 at 4:50. Parker followed with a finger roll and it was 79-71 at 4:23.
But the Lynx responded with a Lindsay Whalen 2 + 1, a 3 by Seimone Augustus, and another Whalen layup off Moore's 7th and final steal and, at 87-71 at 2:54, now it was over.
Augustus matched Moore's 23 points on 6-of-10 shooting from beyond the 3-point arc, while Whalen and Candace Wiggins added 12 and 10. Augustus also was the primary defender versus Tolliver, while Mama Taj McWilliams-Franklin scored just 4 points but added 8 boards and 5 assists and she was the primary defender on Parker.
The Lynx bench contributed 19 points, but was out-scored again, 32-19. Once a strength for this team, the bench has not looked good at all since the Olympics. But Wiggins had a nice game, and Amber Harris added 6 points. Still, the bench looked like it was just holding on until the starters got rested and got back into the lineup.
But make no mistake. This was a tremendously physical game and the Lynx gave better than they got. The Lynx absolutely positively play the game very, very hard and at a high rate of speed. If you wanna beat the Lynx, you've got little choice but to try to shut down both Moore and Augustus, and that's a mighty challenge.
Still, this was an almost perfect effort from the Lynx, especially by their oft-maligned defense. As a result, the Lynx are now 4 games ahead of L.A. in the race for home court advantage in the playoffs within the division, and they're 3 games ahead of Connecticut overall. Good thing, too, as 6 of their remaining 8 games are on the road including 2 at San Antone and 1 at L.A. Next up: Atlanta at home this Friday at 7 p.m.
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Lynx Point Toward San Antone, L.A.
The Lynx returned to action this week after a 6-week layoff for the Olympics--or, rather, for 6 weeks of Olympic basketball in the case of Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsay Whalen. 2 easy wins have the Lynx thinking again about home court advantage and about defending their WNBA title.At 17-4, the Lynx have now clinched a spot in the playoffs, the earliest they have ever done so.
But the victims were Washington 98-69 and Tulsa 83-59 with a combined record of 8 wins and 33 losses.
Better tests will follow this week at Seattle and Atlanta, both 10-11. Seattle remains without Lauren Jackson, former WNBA MVP who is still with the Australian national team, and lost to the L.A. Sparks 82-71 at home in their return to WNBA action. Atlanta has its Olympians, Angel McCoughtrey and Erica de Souza of Brazil, back but lost at Indiana 86-72 last night. The Lynx should win these games, even on the road.
That gets the Lynx to San Antone at home on Tuesday, July 28, by which time the Lynx could be 19-4 and the Stars 17-6 (with a loss at L.A. this Thursday).
A week later on Tuesday, August 4, L.A. comes to town. By now the Lynx could be 21-4 and L.A. 21-6.
Then the schedule gets tough. The Lynx finish with 6 of their last 7 games on the road, 2 at San Antone, 1 at L.A. and home court advantage in the playoffs on the line. Right now a 25-9 finish seems likely. L.A. finishes with 4 home games and appears destined to finish in the 27-7 range. For the Stars, a win over the Lynx at home on the last day of the season could mean a 26-8 record, and could send the Lynx on to the road even for the conference semis. That is how tough this Western Division is. Road wins at L.A. and San Antone may be necessary for the Lynx to get home court advantage in the playoffs.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Lynx Dodge a Bullet
The Minnesota Lynx stayed unbeaten since the Olympics break with a harrowing overtime win over the San Antonio Silver Stars at Target Center Tuesday night.
Lindsay Whalen scored off the opening tap of the OT period and the Lynx went on to score the 1st 10 points of OT to lead 89-79 at 2:35. Whalen finished with 8 points and 2 assists in OT among her 15 points and 8 assists for the night.
The Lynx squandered a 71-62 lead with 5:44 to go. Jia Perkins gave San Antone their 1st lead of the 4th quarter 78-77 with a 3 ball, and Jayne Appel added a FT. Maya Moore answered to tie it up with a 2 at 1:07, and the Lynx sweated out 2 misses by Becky Hammon in the final seconds.
The Lynx got 19 offensive boards on the night to the Stars' 7. Rebekkah Brunson got 5 of those and a total of 20 boards to go with 17 points. The Lynx out-shot San Antone 44 percent to 42, but after 4 quarters it was San Antone 43 percent Minnesota 39. The Lynx made 7-of-9 in OT, San Antone just 1-of-6.
Seimone Augustus and Taj McWilliams-Franklin each scored 19. All 5 Lynx starters were in double figures, but San Antonio's bench out-scored the Lynx' 35-12.
The Lynx go to a league-best 20-4, San Antone drops to 17-7. But in splitting in their last 2 games, including taking the Lynx to OT at the Target Center, the Silver Stars showed themselves to be a solid contender in the WNBA West.
Lindsay Whalen scored off the opening tap of the OT period and the Lynx went on to score the 1st 10 points of OT to lead 89-79 at 2:35. Whalen finished with 8 points and 2 assists in OT among her 15 points and 8 assists for the night.
The Lynx squandered a 71-62 lead with 5:44 to go. Jia Perkins gave San Antone their 1st lead of the 4th quarter 78-77 with a 3 ball, and Jayne Appel added a FT. Maya Moore answered to tie it up with a 2 at 1:07, and the Lynx sweated out 2 misses by Becky Hammon in the final seconds.
The Lynx got 19 offensive boards on the night to the Stars' 7. Rebekkah Brunson got 5 of those and a total of 20 boards to go with 17 points. The Lynx out-shot San Antone 44 percent to 42, but after 4 quarters it was San Antone 43 percent Minnesota 39. The Lynx made 7-of-9 in OT, San Antone just 1-of-6.
Seimone Augustus and Taj McWilliams-Franklin each scored 19. All 5 Lynx starters were in double figures, but San Antonio's bench out-scored the Lynx' 35-12.
The Lynx go to a league-best 20-4, San Antone drops to 17-7. But in splitting in their last 2 games, including taking the Lynx to OT at the Target Center, the Silver Stars showed themselves to be a solid contender in the WNBA West.
Can Lynx Repeat?
The MN Lynx open the 2nd half of the 2012 season as the defending champions of the WNBA, with the best record in the league to date, and with questions, questions, questions! There was a league-record 10-0 start, then a stellar 13-1 record after 14 games, just 1 win short of the league record for a 1-loss start to a season. But then came 3 straight losses (before a pair or wins), and suddenly the sky was falling! Or, was it?
Well, the Lynx finished up the pre-Olympic schedule with 2 more wins, albeit against the hapless Tulsa Shock. But then came the Olympics in which the Lynx and only the Lynx had 3 players--Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsay Whalen--and all 3 have performed very well for Team USA. Moore has been steady especially in adding some rebounds and assists to her point total. Whalen led the team in scoring in the pre-Olympic exhibition season at 11 ppg, and provided a lift in a late 3rd quarter-early 4th quarter run in which the U.S. finally took control against a scrappy Croatian team.
So those 3 losses have been...well, no, they haven't been forgotten and Lynx fans worry about the following.
Questions
1. Is the inside defense tough enough? In all 3 of those shocking July losses, the Lynx got torched by posts Sophia Young, Candace Parker and Tina Charles. Of course, doesn't everyone. But clearly these are 3 posts the Lynx are probably going to have to face and defeat in order to repeat as WNBA champs. And Connecticut Sun coach Mike Thibault was quoted as saying, after his team surprised the Lynx at the Target Center, that "we thought we could go at Taj," and so they did.
It didn't help that Rebekah Brunson was hurting that night and finished with 3 points in 18 minutes while the Lynx were out-rebounded 48-38. But, overall, the Lynx are getting about 11 offensive rebounds to 10 for their opponents, where a year ago the edge was 11-8.
It also didn't help that rookie Devereaux Peters missed that game with a broken hand. She has played more and better than anybody had a right to expect, scoring 5 points with 3 boards in 13 minutes. Likewise, back-up post Jessica Adair, with her 3.5 points and 2 boards, was out after knee surgery.
But as the injuries get healed and/or sorted out, the question remains, Are the Lynx tough enough to handle the league's elite posts? The jury is pretty clearly out on that one as it relates to taking on elite players like Young and Parker and Charles
2. Can the Lynx make and/or stop the 3-ball? Surprisingly, the Lynx are shooting 42 percent and their opponents only 34 on the 3-ball. But the fact is that the 3-game losing streak was caused by the 3-ball more than anything else. Consider:
• San Antone made 13 3s and shot 52 percent. Minnesota shot 50 but only made 5. Becky Hammon, whom Lindsay Whalen usually handles with aplomb, hit 7-of-13 and scored 23 points. Hammon was +9, Whalen was -15.
• Kristi Tolliver of LA made an insane 6-of-6 3s and scored 29 points. The Sparks made 50 percent of their 3s, overall, the Lynx 35 percent. Whalen was -7.
• Connecticut's Kara Lawson made 3-of-7 3s and scored 22 points. Lawson was +13 while Whalen was -13.
3. What is wrong with Lindsay Whalen? As noted above, Hammon, Tolliver and Lawson ate her up. Lindsay scored 29 points with 12 assists in the 3 losses and was a cumulative -35.
For the year her minutes are down from 28 to 26 anther scoring is down from 13 ppg to 11. Her assists are down from 6 to 5. She is shooting about the same at a solid 51 percent. So she is having almost the same season, statistically. But last year she was the Lynx' best player. This year that's clearly not been the case. Her back-up, Candace Wiggins, has been better in several games down the stretch to the Olympic lay-off.
If she's tired, she's going to come back even more tired versus several 1s, including Hammon and Tolliver and Lawson, who aren't playing in the Olympic games, whereas Lindsay is.
Still, that one would even ask the question, What's wrong with Lindsay?, is based on the assumption that she can and should be playing at a very, very high level. Hey, she's Lindsay! So let's put it this way. How high of a level will Lindsay be at after the Olympic break? MVP level? All-Star level? Or something less? Clearly the Lynx need more than a "minus" performance from Lindsay to repeat as WNBA champs.
4. Will the real Maya Moore please stand up? Overall, Maya seems to be just about the same player she was as a rookie, deferring to the more veteran players. Her scoring is up from 13 ppg to 15, her rebounds down from 5 to 4, her shooting up from 44 to 46 percent, and her minutes steady at 28. A good journeyman performance, especially when you consider her youth and the caliber of veterans that she is deferring to.
But at times--and with increasing frequency--she's been the Lynx' best player. She scored an average of 26 points with 8 boards in the 2 Tulsa wins to close the 1st half of the season. But she had disappeared in the San Antonio loss with just 4 points.
Maya has been in the league long enough and has the obvious talent that she can begin dominating if she puts her mind to it. And if Seimone Augustus and Lindsay Whalen are going to struggle a bit more than they have in the past (i.e. 2011), then Moore has to assert herself more than she's done so far.
5. Can the Lynx repeat? Well, of course they can. But will they!
If comes down to match-ups. And as well as the San Antonio Silver Stars are playing the year--and as well as they played versus the Lynx on Sunday, July 1--they don't concern me half as much as the LA Sparks. The Sparks with the WNBA's best player in Candace Parker have the potential to be a powerhouse by the end of this year.
• In the post there's Parker with 19 points and 10 boards per game.
• At the big forward spot you've got rookie Nneka Ogwumike, already contributing 14 points, 7.5 boards and 51 percent shooting.
• At the small forward, Delisha Milton-Jones is at a respectable 10 points and 5 boards.
• Point guard Kristi Tolliver is coming into her own, increasing her scoring from 8 to 9 to 11 and now to 17 ppg with 5 assists, almost twice her career average.
• Veteran guard Alana Beard adds 9.5 points but shoots just 37 percent.
• The bench is a little thin with only Marissa Coleman and Jantel Lavender making a significant contribution, but Coleman is shooting just 30 percent.
Then there's Connecticut with MVP candidate, center Tina Charles at 19 points and 11 boards. Still, I prefer Parker, and Parker's supporting cast is better.
But can the Lynx beat the Sparks in the playoffs? Well, home court advantage could be crucial. Right now the Lynx are 15-4, San Antone is 13-5 and LA is 15-6 in the West. Connecticut is also 15-4 and leads the East.
But can the Lynx repeat? Sure they can.
• The Lynx are out-shooting their opponents by a ridiculous 49 percent to 39 percent, out-rebounding them 37-31, and out-scoring them by 12 points (87-75).
• Connecticut is our-shooting opponents only 44-43 percent, and the rebounds are even at 25. That doesn't sound like a league champion to me.
• San Antone is at 45 percent versus 43, and is being out-rebounded 33 to 35. Ditto.
• Which leaves LA, already defined as the toughest threat. They're at 44 percent to 42 percent for their opponents, and the rebounds are 38-34. Their margin of victory is just 82.5-79.
So, sure, the Lynx can repeat. All it should take is doing the things they've done--out-shoot and out-rebound the opposition--while also shoring up the inside D, making more and denying more 3s, and getting Lindsay and Maya consistently untracked.
So, finally, will the Lynx repeat? Against the field, yeah. But against the LA Sparks in the Western Division finals, it will come down to holding on to the post-season home court advantage and making Candace Parker play like somebody other than the best player in the league. That will be a tall order.
Well, the Lynx finished up the pre-Olympic schedule with 2 more wins, albeit against the hapless Tulsa Shock. But then came the Olympics in which the Lynx and only the Lynx had 3 players--Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore and Lindsay Whalen--and all 3 have performed very well for Team USA. Moore has been steady especially in adding some rebounds and assists to her point total. Whalen led the team in scoring in the pre-Olympic exhibition season at 11 ppg, and provided a lift in a late 3rd quarter-early 4th quarter run in which the U.S. finally took control against a scrappy Croatian team.
So those 3 losses have been...well, no, they haven't been forgotten and Lynx fans worry about the following.
Questions
1. Is the inside defense tough enough? In all 3 of those shocking July losses, the Lynx got torched by posts Sophia Young, Candace Parker and Tina Charles. Of course, doesn't everyone. But clearly these are 3 posts the Lynx are probably going to have to face and defeat in order to repeat as WNBA champs. And Connecticut Sun coach Mike Thibault was quoted as saying, after his team surprised the Lynx at the Target Center, that "we thought we could go at Taj," and so they did.
It didn't help that Rebekah Brunson was hurting that night and finished with 3 points in 18 minutes while the Lynx were out-rebounded 48-38. But, overall, the Lynx are getting about 11 offensive rebounds to 10 for their opponents, where a year ago the edge was 11-8.
It also didn't help that rookie Devereaux Peters missed that game with a broken hand. She has played more and better than anybody had a right to expect, scoring 5 points with 3 boards in 13 minutes. Likewise, back-up post Jessica Adair, with her 3.5 points and 2 boards, was out after knee surgery.
But as the injuries get healed and/or sorted out, the question remains, Are the Lynx tough enough to handle the league's elite posts? The jury is pretty clearly out on that one as it relates to taking on elite players like Young and Parker and Charles
2. Can the Lynx make and/or stop the 3-ball? Surprisingly, the Lynx are shooting 42 percent and their opponents only 34 on the 3-ball. But the fact is that the 3-game losing streak was caused by the 3-ball more than anything else. Consider:
• San Antone made 13 3s and shot 52 percent. Minnesota shot 50 but only made 5. Becky Hammon, whom Lindsay Whalen usually handles with aplomb, hit 7-of-13 and scored 23 points. Hammon was +9, Whalen was -15.
• Kristi Tolliver of LA made an insane 6-of-6 3s and scored 29 points. The Sparks made 50 percent of their 3s, overall, the Lynx 35 percent. Whalen was -7.
• Connecticut's Kara Lawson made 3-of-7 3s and scored 22 points. Lawson was +13 while Whalen was -13.
3. What is wrong with Lindsay Whalen? As noted above, Hammon, Tolliver and Lawson ate her up. Lindsay scored 29 points with 12 assists in the 3 losses and was a cumulative -35.
For the year her minutes are down from 28 to 26 anther scoring is down from 13 ppg to 11. Her assists are down from 6 to 5. She is shooting about the same at a solid 51 percent. So she is having almost the same season, statistically. But last year she was the Lynx' best player. This year that's clearly not been the case. Her back-up, Candace Wiggins, has been better in several games down the stretch to the Olympic lay-off.
If she's tired, she's going to come back even more tired versus several 1s, including Hammon and Tolliver and Lawson, who aren't playing in the Olympic games, whereas Lindsay is.
Still, that one would even ask the question, What's wrong with Lindsay?, is based on the assumption that she can and should be playing at a very, very high level. Hey, she's Lindsay! So let's put it this way. How high of a level will Lindsay be at after the Olympic break? MVP level? All-Star level? Or something less? Clearly the Lynx need more than a "minus" performance from Lindsay to repeat as WNBA champs.
4. Will the real Maya Moore please stand up? Overall, Maya seems to be just about the same player she was as a rookie, deferring to the more veteran players. Her scoring is up from 13 ppg to 15, her rebounds down from 5 to 4, her shooting up from 44 to 46 percent, and her minutes steady at 28. A good journeyman performance, especially when you consider her youth and the caliber of veterans that she is deferring to.
But at times--and with increasing frequency--she's been the Lynx' best player. She scored an average of 26 points with 8 boards in the 2 Tulsa wins to close the 1st half of the season. But she had disappeared in the San Antonio loss with just 4 points.
Maya has been in the league long enough and has the obvious talent that she can begin dominating if she puts her mind to it. And if Seimone Augustus and Lindsay Whalen are going to struggle a bit more than they have in the past (i.e. 2011), then Moore has to assert herself more than she's done so far.
5. Can the Lynx repeat? Well, of course they can. But will they!
If comes down to match-ups. And as well as the San Antonio Silver Stars are playing the year--and as well as they played versus the Lynx on Sunday, July 1--they don't concern me half as much as the LA Sparks. The Sparks with the WNBA's best player in Candace Parker have the potential to be a powerhouse by the end of this year.
• In the post there's Parker with 19 points and 10 boards per game.
• At the big forward spot you've got rookie Nneka Ogwumike, already contributing 14 points, 7.5 boards and 51 percent shooting.
• At the small forward, Delisha Milton-Jones is at a respectable 10 points and 5 boards.
• Point guard Kristi Tolliver is coming into her own, increasing her scoring from 8 to 9 to 11 and now to 17 ppg with 5 assists, almost twice her career average.
• Veteran guard Alana Beard adds 9.5 points but shoots just 37 percent.
• The bench is a little thin with only Marissa Coleman and Jantel Lavender making a significant contribution, but Coleman is shooting just 30 percent.
Then there's Connecticut with MVP candidate, center Tina Charles at 19 points and 11 boards. Still, I prefer Parker, and Parker's supporting cast is better.
But can the Lynx beat the Sparks in the playoffs? Well, home court advantage could be crucial. Right now the Lynx are 15-4, San Antone is 13-5 and LA is 15-6 in the West. Connecticut is also 15-4 and leads the East.
But can the Lynx repeat? Sure they can.
• The Lynx are out-shooting their opponents by a ridiculous 49 percent to 39 percent, out-rebounding them 37-31, and out-scoring them by 12 points (87-75).
• Connecticut is our-shooting opponents only 44-43 percent, and the rebounds are even at 25. That doesn't sound like a league champion to me.
• San Antone is at 45 percent versus 43, and is being out-rebounded 33 to 35. Ditto.
• Which leaves LA, already defined as the toughest threat. They're at 44 percent to 42 percent for their opponents, and the rebounds are 38-34. Their margin of victory is just 82.5-79.
So, sure, the Lynx can repeat. All it should take is doing the things they've done--out-shoot and out-rebound the opposition--while also shoring up the inside D, making more and denying more 3s, and getting Lindsay and Maya consistently untracked.
So, finally, will the Lynx repeat? Against the field, yeah. But against the LA Sparks in the Western Division finals, it will come down to holding on to the post-season home court advantage and making Candace Parker play like somebody other than the best player in the league. That will be a tall order.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Lynx Lead USA to Victory in Britain
Maya Moore led all USA scorers with 18 points while adding 5 assists, and was named Player of the Game, while Lindsay Whalen was the only other USA player in double figures with 13 and also recorded 5 assists. Seimone Augustus added 8 points, as the USA methodically dismantled Great Britain 88-63 in the 2nd of 4 pre-Olympic tune-up games.
So far the Lynx are totally tuned-up in two recent exhibitions versus Brazil and Great Britain. Whalen has been fantastic filling in for point guard Sue Bird, who has been at home due to a death in the family. Meanwhile, Moore has asserted herself like she does not do on the Lynx while Seimone Augustus has played the Moore role, which is to say as a solid role player. If the 3 continue to play as they have, the USA will be almost impossible to beat.
USA led pretty much the entire way, though just 25-21 after 1 period. By half-time it was 47-32, and after 3 the USA led 73-51. Actually USA trailed 21-10 early on, but used a 21-0 run to take control late in the 1st and into the 2nd period. 2 Moore throws and an old-fashioned 3 point play by Whalen got the USA within 21-17 and the game soon was for all practical purposes over.
So far the Lynx are totally tuned-up in two recent exhibitions versus Brazil and Great Britain. Whalen has been fantastic filling in for point guard Sue Bird, who has been at home due to a death in the family. Meanwhile, Moore has asserted herself like she does not do on the Lynx while Seimone Augustus has played the Moore role, which is to say as a solid role player. If the 3 continue to play as they have, the USA will be almost impossible to beat.
USA led pretty much the entire way, though just 25-21 after 1 period. By half-time it was 47-32, and after 3 the USA led 73-51. Actually USA trailed 21-10 early on, but used a 21-0 run to take control late in the 1st and into the 2nd period. 2 Moore throws and an old-fashioned 3 point play by Whalen got the USA within 21-17 and the game soon was for all practical purposes over.
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