We're about 1 month into it and some surprises have begun to emerge in the Northern Sun. But, first, not surprising are the following:
Men--Augustana 2-0, 5-1 and Winona 1-0, 6-1, picked 1st and 2nd in the coaches pre-season poll
Women--Winona 1-0, 6-1 and Augustana 2-0, 5-1 picked 2nd and 3rd, plus Wayne State 2-0, 8-0, picked 1st, not to mention Wayne's Ashley Arlen, pre-season PoY and now twice the weekly PoY
Surprises Among the Men
The three big surprises so far include Moorhead State 2-0, 5-0 and St. Cloud State 2-0, 6-0, picked 5th and 6th, plus Northern State, but as they're not a Minnesota team, I have nothing specific to say about them.
I should add that Mankato State 1-1, 2-4 and Concordia St. Paul 0-2, 3-3, picked 3rd and 4th, have also been surprises of the negative variety to date.
Everybody else is sitting within 2 slots of where the coaches had picked them in the pre-season poll.
Moorhead has almost everybody back from a 15-12 team, but coach Chad Walthall has swapped senior guards D.J. Hamilton (in) and Jake Driscoll (from Glyndon) (out) of the starting lineup, and Hamilton's scoring is up from 11 ppg to 19. Hamilton has been the MVP in the early going of the NSIC with 5 assists and 2 steals to go with a 53 percent FG percentage. He leads the Dragons in minutes played with 30. Guard Jordan Riewer, a redshirt freshman from Staples, is also new in the starting lineup while Charlie Chapman returns as the 3rd guard. Driscoll, again, is the 4th guard in a 3-guard lineup.
Up front, all-conference forward, 6-9 Alex Novak returns and is contributing 11 points, 8 boards and 2 blocks. Meanwhile, 6-10 newcomer Jake Lindfors has replaced the injured Dennis Williamson and (Lindfors) is contributing 17 points and 8 boards on 59 percent shooting. It is hard to see where the 6-6 Williamson will fit into things when he returns, but certainly would add depth to what, suddenly, is an imposing group of kids.
Now, the truth being told, the Dragons have yet to venture beyond the friendly confines of the Alex Nemzek Fieldhouse. So, no, they're not going to finish the NSIC season undefeated and its unlikely they'll continue to shoot 53 percent as a team. But the addition of Lindfors and the play of Hamilton would seem to make them a contender for conference honors that I hadn't recognized previously myself.
St. Cloud State is very similarly situated--unbeaten, unexpected, untested on the road. But while Moorhead gets another week at home (vs. UM-Crookston) before venturing out to Wayne State and Augustana, St. Cloud will be traveling to Southwest State and Mankato State this coming Friday and Saturday nights. What are we likely to see?
Well, also like the Moorhead Dragons, St. Cloud has started out undefeated with some hot shooting, a little better than 50 percent, collectively, which is all about post Tim Bergstrasser (St. Cloud Apollo) who is at 67.5 percent himself. Meanwhile, the 2 returning starters, forward Theo Rothstein (St. Michael-Albertville) and guard Brett Putz are shooting 54 and 47 percent. Guard Shaun Jensen (Spring Lake Park) and forward Mike Rostampour (Henry Sibley) are shooting 48 and 46 percent. And maybe those percentages can be maintained.
But the main difference between St. Cloud and Moorhead is that the Huskies under coach Kevin Schlagel have a tradition of success, including a D2 Final Four appearance just 2 years ago, that Moorhead hasn't had. So while both of these teams can contend, it would seem to be slightly more likely that St. Cloud might be at the head of the pack come March.
Still, Moorhead's "bigs"--Novak and Lindfors, with Williamson possibly returning--would seem to have a slight advantage over St. Cloud's Bergstrasser ad Rostampour. Meanwhile, I like St. Cloud guards Putz and Jensen a little better than Moorhead's Hamilton, Chapman and Riewer. But there's not much to pick for personnel. So I guess we'll close by just saying that both are early surprises who look like they can contend for NSIC honors.
Then there's Concordia (St. Paul) and Mankato State, 2 teams that were expected to contend but are looking pretty iffy in the early going. Like Moorhead and St. Cloud, you've got one (Mankato) with a tradition of success and another (Concordia) that is still trying to climb that ladder. Does that made Mankato the more likely of the 2 to turn things around yet this year?
Maybe not. But, in fairness, there is this.
Mankato State plays a whole different schedule than the rest--just 1 game at home so far, 1-and-2 away and 0-and-2 on neutral courts. And, so, now the Mavericks have 4 straight home games coming up, including games that will help settle the pecking order among St. Cloud and Concordia.
Still, Mankato State so far is a tent-pole team. led by 6-7 sophomore forward Connor O'Brien (New Prague) who scores 11 points per game and adds 10 boards, a block and a steal, all team highs. He is 2nd in assists with 2.5--point guard Jimmy Whitehead leads with 3. This is an inexperienced group--the other "big" is 6-8 true freshman Zach Romashko (Blaine)--and its simply not yet clear what some of these fellows can do. They've been out-shot 44 percent to 37. All of this could just be an artifact of playing all those road games. That could come back as a big advantage later on, for that matter. But the burden of proof is on this young group to show that it is in fact better than what it's shown. In the meantime, its current 9th place would seem to be more predictive than its predicted 3rd place finish in the coaches pre-season poll.
Concordia (St. Paul), meanwhile, got off to a good start, winning 3 games, and looking every inch the contender, before suddenly losing 3 games, unexpectedly. And so their current 13th place (0-2, 3-3) is a fur piece from their predicted 4th place finish. Will the real Bears please stand up? What is most troubling is that, like Moorhead and St. Cloud, they've yet to venture forth from the home Gangelhoff Center court and still they've sustained those 3 losses, and to teams predicted to finish 10th (Northern) and 12th (Mary) in the conference.
The Bears are an experienced group, or maybe not. No, they're young, but with 3 seniors in the starting lineup. Who are they? The Olafeso brothers--Kenny and Peter--are the heart and soul of the team, but they're in their 2nd year of high level play. Previous experience at St. Paul Harding and MCTC does not quite equate to play in the NSIC. And 6-10 senior post Brett Barz is also a JC transfer. The rest of their contributors include a pair of true freshmen--Cole Olstad from Plainview-EM and Terez Van Pelt from Osseo--plus junior forward Isaiah Thomas (Fridley) who, like Barz, is in his 3rd year with the program.
The problems would appear to be on the defensive end, where all but 1 opponent has shot at least 45 percent and the Bears are giving up an average of 78 points. But its been different stuff. Northern dominated inside, but the Bears out-scored Mary in the paint. They out-scored both on the fast break and off of turnovers, but lost the half-court battle. They can score, but a few stops would be good.
And, Among the Women
The pleasant surprises are the Concordia (St. Paul) women, picked for 7th and currently 3rd (2-0, 5-3), and UM-Crookston, picked for 11th but currently 7th (1-1, 4-2). Moorhead is off to a disappointing start. Picked for 4th (higher by yours truly), they're 9th right now (1-1, 3-2).
Frankly, it was a mystery to me why
Concordia was picked for 7th by the coaches. And like the Mankato men, at least their 5-3 record comes in part from venturing forth out into the world (where they're 0-and-2). And the only part of their record through 8 games that seems maybe unsustainable is Carissa Wolyniec's 49 percent shooting from beyond the arc. As a team, they're only shooting 43 percent and so it can get better. (Rachel Hansen is shooting 29 percent so far, and will do better. Jodi Batzel is shooting 55 percent but, hey, she shot 50 last year as a freshman.)
Meanwhile, they're holding opponents to 35 percent shooting, and they can keep doing that, I think.
Of course, their 2 conference wins so far came at home, and they're a very young team, having replaced the 3-headed monster--Mauricka Hickman, Jineen Williams and Zoraa Quoie--that was the heart of last year's team. And, so, next weekend they'll be more seriously tested at Mankato and Southwest State. Then come 3 more home games, so it's only in January that we'll really find out what coach Paul Fessler's team is made of. But from here it looks like that 2-0 record in the conference fairly represents what they can do. If Woyniec keeps hitting the 3, they'll be tough to beat.
Then there's
UM-Crookston and all one can say is, wow. The Eagles were a total doormat when Mike Roysland took over as coach. Last year, he got UMC to 13-14, but then had to replace stalwarts Jamie Zelinsky and Bri Zabel. But it helps (a lot) that he's got one of the true superstars of the NSIC in score first-ask for forgiveness later-point guard Brittani Wiese (5-7 junior St. Michael-Albertville). Wiese is scoring 20 ppg so far, though it's true that she's only making 36 percent of her shots.
She's got help from a pretty fair pair of "bigs," both out of Rosemount, 6-1 junior Laurie Tyson (7 ppg, 65 percent shooting in 20 minutes) and 5-10 junior Megan Eul (13 ppg, 46 percent in 30 minutes). Meanwhile a pair of freshman guards have stepped into starting roles--5-8 Ashley Martell and 5-9 Ebony Livingston from Hopkins--and they're scoring 15 and 5 points on 47 and 25 percent shooting, respectively. And there are 3 more women scoring 5 to 6 points off the bench.
So, while it still seems almost unthinkable, based on history and tradition, it seems that Roysland has the Eagles almost to where they could contend for a top spot in the NSIC. Of course, they, too, have fashioned their 2-0 record on a pair of home wins, and the going will get a lot tougher with games at Moorhead, Augustana and Wayne in the next 2 weeks (Wayne hammered 'em 87-56 in the playoffs last year). But if they come home 2 weeks from now with a 2-3 record, they'll still be where they are now and where most NSIC teams (men or women) are, and that is--they can win at home. It won't take a whole lot of road wins to differentiate oneself. It's not impossible that this could be one of those teams and, if so, Roysland is coach of the decade.
On the flip side of the coin, then, you've got
Moorhead State. Picked for 4th (and higher yet by me), they're off to a 1-1, 3-2 start, which isn't bad, but isn't good either. How you get on this list, by the way, is losing to Bemidji State at home, and Moorhead's already done that, 75-68. Fortunately, they turned things around enough to beat a superior Minnesota-Duluth team (superior to Bemidji) that following night, 63-61.
The other "problem" (for me more than for coach Karla Nelson) is that Angela Christianson was a big reason why I thought Moorhead could contend, and the sophomore transfer has been hurt thus far this year. I don't know if one should be encouraged or discouraged by her 2 point performance against a gassed bunch from Duluth. I mean, encouraged that she's back? Or discouraged that, if healthy, she hasn't shown that she'll be a dominant player in the NSIC, as I for one expect her to be.
The final problem (that I'll mention) is that Moorhead's inside players are not shooting the lights out like some of them that we've seen. Angie Jetvig, my pre-season pick for PoY in the NSIC, is shooting 44 percent, Megan Strese 45 and Morgan Zabel 44. Meaning, they can sustain that, so it's not a matter of any particular concern. The guard play is, so Christianson's return to full strength after her injuries (how quick? how fully?) will be a difference-maker in terms of whether this past season is a good one or not. And I have no clue as to the answers to those questions.
Summary: The Conventional Wisdom
Moorhead State men >>>>> (holding)
St. Cloud State men ^^^^^ (up)
Mankato State men VVVVV (down)
Concordia St. Paul men VVVVV (down)
Concordia St. Paul women ^^^^^ (up)
UM-Crookston women ^^^^^ (up)
Moorhead State women >>>>> (holding but time is running out)
And, Finally, Some Individual Breakouts
The top 5 women so far would seem to be Arlen, who leads the way with 20 ppg and adds 9.5 boards on 58 percent shooting; Jetvig, 17 points and 10 boards; Alex Feeney of Augustana; Wiese; and Katrina Newman, last year's freshman of the year. So now real surprises there, unless it's that Winona's dynamic duo of Michelle McDonald and Katie Wolff doesn't stand out statistically as of yet.
The bigger surprises are Ali Schwartzwald of Wayne, finally emerging as a senior (from St. Francis, MN), 2nd to Wiese with 4 assists; and Claire Duwelius of Winona with 13 ppg on 55 percent 3-point shooting. Also Bree Holleman, the coach's kid from Hancock, MN, at Southwest State, is breaking out with 13 ppg in her sophomore season.
Among the men, I'd call D.J. Hamilton a breakout story--also Connor (don't call me Conan) O'Brien, Tim Bergstrasser and Jake Lindfors. The big surprise is Cody Schilling, pretty much an also-ran in the scoring race at 17 ppg so far. Oh, yeah, I'm worried. Not.
