You probably don’t recall that I picked the Gopher men to finish 8th in the Big 10 at 9-11. Like the women (who I picked 7th at 9-9), I thought that was a little generous. But unlike the women, who are getting some pretty favorable reviews elsewhere, most prognosticators appear to agree with me (when I say I’m being generous), but really disagreeing with me, I should say, because everybody else has got the Gopher men more like 9th through 13th in the Big 10. The official pre-season media poll has them 11th.
Well, it all depends, of course. Doesn’t everybody’s prospect just depend on something. In this case, it all depends on whether the 3 transfers are that good or not, and whether their chemistry among themselves and with the Gophers big 2 returnees is good.
So here’s what we know.
• Daniel Oturu is a horse. He scored 11 ppg with 7 boards and a block and 55% shooting as a freshman. Now, it’s going to get tougher for him with Jordan Murphy gone. Now, he’ll be the #1 focus of the inside defenses. But he’s a year older and wiser and stronger and even with defenses hanging all over him, he’ll at least match last year’s numbers. I have him on my 2nd all-Big 10 team, though I’ll admit that might be a little generous, too. But, he will be among the top “bigs.” He’ll have good nights and he’ll probably have some nights that aren’t so good. It says here he’ll break even against the other top 7 bigs and win the post matchup against the other 7.
• Gabe Kalscheur is also an all-Big 10 prospect. He just needs to develop a little more consistency with his shot. He made 42% last year, 41% of 3s. That’s not quite enough daggers yet, but I think he’ll get there. He scored something like 77 points in the 2 all-star games at the end of his senior season, and I said that someday he would do that in the Big 10. Yes, 77 points in 2 games. Not every night, but someday, once. But, right now he is probably a breakeven catch-and-shooter in the Big 10. Half the teams have somebody better, the rest have somebody almost as good.
• Among the other 4 returnees, Michael Hurt is a good, skilled player off the bench. He’s not that big and he’s not that strong, but he is smart, he can pass the ball. He doesn’t hurt you, but he’s not a difference-maker.
• Jarvis Omersa might contribute someday. Brady Rudrud and Hunt Conroy go hard in practice.
And here’s what we don’t know.
• A lot is expected of Marcus Carr, the 6-2 sophomore point guard transfer from Pitt. He scored 10 as a freshman in the Big East and led the Panthers with 4 assists per night. You might be surprised to know he scored 9 ppg as a senior in high school. He seemed pretty solid against Southwest State but, hey, are you going to make me say it? Still, 6 assists is a nice start.
• A lot is expected of Payton Willis, the 6-4 junior transfer from Vanderbilt. He scored 5 ppg at Vandy, but 16 as a senior in high school and he was rated as the #22 point guard in his class. People don’t seem to be as high on him as on Carr, and Carr did outscore him 2 years ago 10-5. But against Southwest State, he was better than Carr, scoring 14 points (vs. 12 for Carr) on 2 fewer shots, and he matched Carr’s 6 assists. OK, it’s just one game and, well, you know. Still, he looked good.
• Not so much is expected of Alihan Demir, the 6-9 senior transfer from Drexel, where he went 15-6-3 last year. But, well, you know, don’t make me say it. He struggled against Southwest State. Hey, it’s just one game.
• More is expected of Isaiah Ihnen, the 6-9 freshman from Germany. Even this year, with Ihnen being a good 3 years younger than Demir, more is expected of Ihnen than Demir. But, first, hopefully, he’s going to bounce back from a hand injury really quickly and start getting some game experience at this level, even, well, you know, don’t make me say it.
• And then there’s the 6-5 freshman guard Tre Williams, who like Ihnen is rated a 4-star recruit. He looked pretty good against, well, you know, with 9 points, 6 boards and 2 steals. And, also, 6-0 freshman guard Bryan Greenlee, a 3-star recruit who went 14-4-7-2 as a senior in high school. He also looked OK against Southwest State but, well, you know. The other freshman is 6-10 post Sam Freeman. This is only Sam’s 3rd year of competitive basketball. He is a project, and he is not going to contribute this year.
But, seriously, what we really don’t know is how good Carr, Willis and Demir really are. The Gophers return a measly 24 ppg from last year. Carr, Willis and Demir represent 30 points from their last college seasons. We think we know that Demir’s 15 ppg at Drexel needs a discount. We’re not sure about Carr and Willis’ 15. I’m thinking no discount, that they’ll do that and better. If not, well, the Gophers will be in trouble.
So the depth chart looks like this.
Center
|
Forward
|
Point Guard
|
Combo Guard
|
Shooting Guard
|
Oturu
|
Ihnen
|
Carr
|
Willis
|
Kalscheur
|
Alihan
|
Hurt
|
Willis
|
Williams
|
Williams
|
Omersa
|
Greenlee
|
The biggest question mark is Ihnen. We haven’t seen him yet. Is he really the Gophers 5th best player? If not, then Alihan or Hurt or Omersa will have to start, or coach Rick Pitino is looking at a 4-out with Carr, Willis, Williams and Kalscheur, and then there’s almost nobody to come off the bench on the perimeter. So I’d be pretty sure that coach is looking to keep a couple of bigs on the court most of the time. But, it one of them ain’t Ihnen, I don’t know who it is.
But if Ihnen is 2/3 to ¾ as good as Oturu was as a freshman, and if I’m right about Carr and Willis (scoring more than 15 between them), then this is not a bad team. If the top 5 in my depth chart are “not bad,” well, there’s also a little bit of depth behind them. But if Ihnen and Carr and Willis are not all pretty darn competitive Big 10 players, then this will indeed be a long year.
I had them 8th at 9-11. If the Gophers have nothing but good luck from here on out, then 10-10. But, again, if the 3 newcomers are not competitive, 6-12 and 5-13 are not out of the question. And, about that point, we just don’t know yet.
