A Step Forward for the Timberwolves?
The Minnesota Timberwolves, as you probably know, increased their wins from 16 to 29 to 31 to 47 from 2015 to 2018. This was a pretty good mirror of the Wolves 2010 to 2014 seasons, when they increased from 15 to 17 to 26 to 31 to 40 wins except, of course, that the earlier resurgence continued for 5 years, this one for 4.
Rebuild 3.0
The earlier resurgence was necessary after the departure of coach Kevin McHale and point guard Randy Foye after a dreadful 24-58 season in 2010. But, if you thought that was dreadful, I don’t even have a word for 2011 and 2012 when the Wolves won a combined 32 games with 132 losses under coach Kurt Rambis and GM David Kahn. Kevin Love, Jonny Flynn, Ricky Rubio, Michael Beasley and Wesley Johnson all came on board during this period, and Love and Rubio, at least, lasted into the resurgence. Flynn and Johnson, in particular, came to connote the utter ineptitude of Kahn as a talent evaluator who passed over Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George, Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard, among others, in order to get Flynn and Johnson (and Rubio and Derrick Williams) into T-Wolves jersies.
Rick Adelman replaced Rambis for 2 years of decent progress, mostly notable for Love’s emergence as an all-pro caliber player and, yes, for Adelman’s competent coaching. Nikola Pekovic came on board as Beasley flamed out, and then Pekovic flamed out with a series of injuries, playing just 271 games in 6 years. The 5th and final year of the resurgence was 2014 when the Wolves went 40-42, still missing the playoffs by 9 games. But, then, Love bailed, and it was time for another rebuild.
Rebuild 4.0
In case you’re wondering, by the way, Rebuild 1.0 came way back in 1991 when the original owners, Harv and Marv, and their president, Bob Stein, the son-in-law of I forget which of them and, oh, yeah, by the way, a football guy, decided that hiring Bill Musselman in 1989 had been a mistake. Everybody knew from his days as the Gopher coach, of course, that Musselman was an asshole. But, that’s not why they fired him. They fired him because he won too many games. In those days, you were supposed to be grateful to get an expansion franchise. Players who could walk and chew gum at the same time, not so much. But, with a truly horrifyingly terrible roster, Musselman did what Musselman did. He outcoached everybody and won 22 and then 29 games. And, so, obviously, he had to go. He wasn’t building for the future, they said. In other words, he wasn’t tanking so that the Wolves could get a #1 draft choice. He was winning games. It pretty obviously never occurred to Harv and Marv and Bob that the way you building a WINNING tradition is by WINNING, not by LOSING. Duh! So, anyway, they fired Muss and they achieved their goal in spades. They lost games by the bushel basket. They won 75 games and lost 253 over the next 4 years before finally achieving the other goal, of getting a serviceable draft choice with which they took Kevin Garnett in 2005.
But the curse of Harv and Marv followed the team long after they had sold it to Glen Taylor and long after Garnett had come along to attempt to save the franchise from itself.
By that we mean to say that the Wolves had one of the NBA’s best players for 12 years and in those 12 years—well, OK, they made it to the playoffs 8 times. But with 12 years of Kevin Garnett, only once, in 2004, did they ever win so much as a playoff series. And that remains the one and only season in which the T-Wolves have ever won a playoff series to this day, 30 years later.
A big part of that was the loss of draft picks for several years because of the signing of Joe Smith in 2000. The Smith contact, you see, was a little secret between Smith and T-Wolves owner Glen Taylor, who paid Smith more than the T-Wolves were allowed to pay under the league’s salary cap. Taylor was suspended from any contact with the team for a year, the stiffest penalty that any NBA owner had ever received and, again, the T-Wolves were stripped of their draft picks for several years. Unable to surround Garnett with a good young nucleus of players, well, the T-Wolves for all intents and purposes squandered the Garnett years. And, so, then came Rebuild 2.0.
So, then you’ve read about Rebuild 3.0. Then came Rebuild 4.0. The question before us today is whether the 2019-2020 season for the Timberwolves will represent Rebuild 5.0, or just Rebuild 4.1. We certainly hope the latter, but we fear perhaps the former.
In any event, Rebuild 4.0 started with the hiring of Flip Saunders in 2014 (for the 2014-2015 season). Kevin Love was gone, and Pekovic was gone though we didn’t know it at the time. Garnett returned for a cameo and, more to the point, guards Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine were on board. But the T-Wolves dropped from 40 wins to just 16.
But, this Rebuild was more rapid than 3.0, as the wins almost doubled to 29 in 2016. Karl-Anthony Townes now came on board, and he and Wiggins and LaVine combined for 53 ppg. But, the big change that year was the hiring of Sam Mitchell as coach after Saunders’ untimely death.
The next year Tom Thibodeau came on as coach and GM. He would be the experienced basketball man that the T-Wolves had been searching for for, oh, about 27 years, to take charge and lead the T-Wolves to the promised land. The wins increased only to 31 but Townes, Wiggins and LaVine scored 68 ppg among them.
In 2018 the T-Wolves really appeared to have resurged. In February they had something like the 4th spot in the west, but a late slump dropped them all the way to 8th, so they had to play the #1 seeded Houston Rockets and, of course, they lost. Still, 47 wins was their best in more than a decade. The promised land was just around the next corner.
Then, of course, came the Jimmy Butler saga. Well, in fairness, the Butler saga includes those 47 wins in 2018. Butler scored 22 ppg, Towns 21 and Wiggins 18, and Thobodeau’s acquisitions at the point guard and the power forward, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, added 14 and 12. Thibodeau was indeed a miracle man!
But no man can create any miracles based on Jimmy Butler that Butler cannot tear down, and Butler tore down the T-Wolves with remarkable speed. You probably know the story, but in any event, the wins dropped from 47 to 31, the playoffs were way out of reach, and Thibodeau went down the drain of history. Hey, thanks, Jimmy! Been good to know ya!
Rebuild 4.1 or 5.0?
And that brings us up to date in the Timberwolves history of Rebuilds. So, where does 2020 fit into all of this? Well, it’s too soon to tell.
The best case scenario is that 2020 will see a mini-rebuild, that the T-Wolves of 2018 are alive and well with Townes and Wiggins and Teague still in charge, and still capable of making a playoff run. The fact that coach Ryan Saunders replaced Thibodeau last year and not in the off-season also plays into the mini-rebuild scenario.
The worst case is that 2020 looks more like 2019 than 2018, and that Rebuild 5.0 will indeed kick in in earnest in 2021 or even before 2020 is over.
Rebuild 5.0
OK, here, I’ll say it. I fear for the worst. Rebuild 5.0seems the more likely scenario. The problem is that of the three legs of a possible playoff-run stool, 2 of them are looking pretty rickety. 24 year old post Karl Anthony Towns is the only asset the Timberwolves have today that looks like playoff material.
You know about Andrew Wiggins. His offensive efficiency last year was among the worst in the entire NBA. His mid-range game is very poorly suited to the modern game, which is to shoot 3s and layups. NBA players shoot almost 40% on 3s, which means they score 1.2 points per shot. When defensives stretch out to defend the 3, cutters break open in the lane for open layups, of which they make 60%, or 1.2 points per shot. NBA players, meanwhile, make around 48% of their mid-range jump shots, give or take, depending on the distance, which figures out to 0.96 points per shot. Wiggins shot 44% last year, good for 0.88 points per shot. Not only that, but because he’s shooting mostly 15 foot+ jump shots, he doesn’t get to the line. He shot 7 FT per game in his 2nd year in the league. Last year about 4.
Word is the Wolves tried to move Wiggins during the off-season but his contract is exactly the inverse of his productivity, which is to say, Huge. So, he ain’t goin’ nowhere, not even in a salary dump. So, obviously, the Wolves and coach Ryan Saunders are going to try to retool or, dare I say, rebuild his offensive game around 3s and cuts and cut it out with those useless mid-range 2s.
Then there’s Jeff Teague. He’s been a pretty good NBA 1. For his career, 13 points, 6 assists, 2 turnovers, 47% on 2s, 36% on 3s, 84% on FT. And last year he had a career high of 8 assists, though an 8 year low with 12 ppg. But more to the point, he is 31 years old and last year his shooting percentages were at those 8 year lows and he played half the schedule due to injuries. And, this year, the Wolves won’t have a better point guard to replace him.
Teague has one more year on his contract, so the Wolves hung on to him as much to set up a 2020 salary dump as anything. Meanwhile Tyus Jones was let go (to Teague’s old team, the Atlanta Hawks) because his contract was up and the Wolves wanted to bank his value for next year. If they signed him now, it would hamper their ability to go after a bigger fish next year. But, while Tyus isn’t much of a scorer, his assist to turnover ratio is off the charts and there are plenty of knowledgeable people who thought the Wolves were better with Tyus on the court than with Teague.
So, as we said, Karl Anthony-Towns is the only real asset that the Timberwolves have. That sounds more like 5.0 to me than 4.1. Here is the probable opening day starting lineup.
Center—Towns 7-0, 24 years, 24 ppg last year, 54% FG% last year
Power Forward—Robert Covington, 6-9, 29 years, 14 ppg, 43%
Small Forward—Andrew Wiggins, 6-8, 24 years, 18 ppg, 41%
Point Guard—Jeff Teague, 6-2, 31 years, 12 ppg, 42%
Shooting Guard—Josh Okogie, 6-4, 21 years, 8 ppg, 39%
Or Jarrett Culver, 6-7, 20 years, rookie, 18 ppg, 46% last year at Texas Tech
If Teague gets hurt, the backup point guard is probably Shabazz Napier, 6-1, 28 years, who scored 9 ppg last year with Brooklyn on 39% shooting with 2.6 assists.
The frontcourt at least has some depth with Gorgui Dieng and Noah Vonleh and Keita Bates-Diop and Jake Layman and Jordan Bell, but whether any of them is better than just “depth” remains to be seen.
As a matter of actual fact, this roster seems to have taken a step backward from last year with the loss of Tyus Jones and Dario Saric. The deeper you dig, the more this looks like 5.0. The only real wild card is that Culver steps in a plays like a veteran from the get-go, shooting the same 46% and scoring the same 18 ppg he scored last year in college.
In my NBA preview I pegged the Wolves at 36-46, same as last year. But, if the roster has taken a step back, then 36 wins is probably a little bit optimistic or maybe a lot optimistic. Anywhere from 26 to 36 is possible, but not more.
Roster Comparison
Pos.
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2018 (36 wins)
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2019 (and 2018 stats)
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Comment
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C
|
Towns 2,500 min 24 ppg (52% FG)
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Towns
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I don’t see how he can play a lot better than he already is. 0 in terms of expected improvement.
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PF
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Gibson 1,700 and 11 ppg (57%)
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Covington 700 and 14 (43%)
|
Wolves lose size and shooting, may gain some athleticism if Cov is healthy. 0
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SF
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Wiggins 2,500 and 18 (41%)
|
Wiggins
|
Has to get better. +
|
PF
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Teague 1,300 and 12 (42%)
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Teague
|
Probably same player, hopefully more minutes. 0
|
SG
|
Okogie 1,800 and 8 (39%)
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Okogie
|
Might not start again, will play 1,800 minutes again, should be better. +
|
Starting lineup will be similar in caliber to last year (2 +s but they're small +s), but smaller. But, other than Towns, look at those shooting percentages. Ouch.
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C
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Dieng 1,000 and 6 (50%)
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Dieng
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No change. 0
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PF
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Saric 1,600 and 10.5 (45%)
Tolliver 1,100 and 5 (38%)
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Jordan Bell 800 and 3 (57%)
|
Will miss Saric. -
|
SF
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Covington
Diop 500 and 5 (42%)
|
Diop
Jake Layman 1,300 and 8 (51%)
Noah Vonleh 1,700 and 8 (47%)
|
Layman and/or Vonleh could push Wiggins to the SG and Okogie to the bench; still, with Cov moving into starting lineup position overall not improved. + only in that Cov only played 700 minutes.
|
PG
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T. Jones 1,600 and 7 (41%)
Rose 1,400 and 18 (48%)
Bayless 700 and 6 (36%)
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Napier 1,000 and 9 (39%)
Tyrone Wallace 600 and 3 (42%)
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Nowhere near the talent to back up Teague, unless Culver is ready to play NBA PG, which is doubtful. -
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SG
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Jarrett Culver 1,000 and 18 (46%) (in college)
Treveon Graham 700 and 5 (33%)
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If both Wiggins and Okogie play the SG, then depth not a problem. If one or both are at the SF, then SG depth a problem. +
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Could see a small increase is shooting percentage, maybe. Bottom line, lose Saric and Covington and 3 PG off the bench and gain a rookie and 3 maybes?
Starting lineup might be a tiny bit better. Bench will not be as good unless Culver is all-rookie.
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