OK, my first step was to look at several pre-season top 25s and to compile a composite ranking. I’m not going to list the teams right here, lest you mistake it for my list. Both lists come a little later. But, suffice it to say that the Final Four and the national champions are probably going to come from this list.
As I see it, the (oh, screw it) Final Four and the national championship will, in the end, be the team that has:
1. The best point guard…
2. Assuming that he’s got somebody to dish off to—that is, somebody who can shoot…
3. And, assuming he’s surrounded by people who have the athleticism and motivation to defend like crazy.
Those are the 3 essential ingredients for success nowadays at every level but I think that it especially describes college men. So, from my list of potential top 25 teams…
Who Has the Best Point Guard?
1. Michigan State
Cassius Winston has it all—experience (he’s a senior), he dishes it (7 assists last year), he shoots it (19 ppg on 47%), but he’s a pass-first guy who involves his teammates. Well, he has it all except size. At 6-1, he’s not regarded as a great NBA prospect. And maybe speed, though he’s got good quickness. But, whatever issues he’s got, he is still the consensus pre-season Player of the Year.
2. Marquette
If Winston’s not the Player of the Year, it will probably be Marquette’s senior Markus Howard. He’s even smaller than Winston and, well, he’s listed as a “1” but plays more like a combo guard, scoring 25 ppg on 45% shooting with 4 assists. He might be a better “player” than Winston, but he’s not a better “1” and, at 5-11, he’s not a better NBA prospect. But this is not the NBA, thank goodness.
3. Kansas
The Jayhawks bring back sophomore Devon Dotson. He’s 6-2, he averaged 3 dishes last year, he scored 12 on 48% shooting.
4. Kentucky
The thing about Kentucky is that they’ve got 2 point guards, and I don’t mean that they don’t have a point guard. I mean, they have 2. One is 6-3 sophomore Ashton Hagans, who averaged 8 ppg on 47% shooting, 4 assists and 2 steals as a freshman. The other is a freshman, Tyrese Maxey, also 6-3. So, if everybody’s starting “1” went down with an injury, then Kentucky would have the best point guard in the land. Both will start, it just remains to be seen who’s the 1 and who’s the 2 or if they share duties. I think, howevber, that you keep Hagans at the 1 because he’s the better passer, regardless of who’s the better shooter.
5. Duke
6-3 sophomore Tre Jones returns for Duke. He scored 9 last year on just 41% shooting, but averaged 5 assists and 2 steals. He’s not the offensive threat that some might be, but he is one of the best ball defenders and will slow down even the best.
6. North Carolina
The Tar Heels bring in 6-3 freshman Cole Anthony. This might be too low but it remains to be seen if he’s a true “1” or not.
7. Seton Hall
Here again, the question is whether Myles Powell is a “1.” Well, really, he’s not. It’s just that he’ll handle the ball a lot for Seton Hall. Of course, he’ll shoot it a lot (25 ppg on 45% shooting last year), too. He’s a 6-2 junior. That’s the great thing about college ball. All these 5-11, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2 guards can dominate, and they do dominate. But, at Seton Hall, the problem is that Powell can’t pass himself the ball.
8. Maryland
The Terps have 6-0 junior Anthony Cowan. He averaged 4 dishes last year and 16 ppg but on just 39% shooting.
9. Villanova
Junior Collin Gillespie leads the way.
10. Colorado
McKinley Wright is the man in Boulder.
11. Baylor
The Bears feature Devonte Bandoo.
12. Ohio State
This might be a little bit of a stretch, but the Buckeyes will depend on freshman D.J. Carton at a position where experience is particularly valuable. Still, the upside is there.
Which “1” Has the Best Shooters to Feed?
1. Michigan State
Forward Xavier Tillman, a junior, shoots 60%, while senior shooting guard Joshua Langford shoots 45%. The experience and the shooting ability make the Spartans a very, very tough out.
2. Kansas
7-footer Udoka Azubuike, a senior, shoots 70%. 6-9 Silvio De Sousa sat out most of last year after getting caught up in the ongoing recruiting scandal (an Adidas consultant said that De Sousa’s guardian had received more than $60,000 to steer him to another college), but Kansas appealed and De Souza is now eligible to play in 2019-2020.
3. Louisville
Louisville is led by 6-8 junior forward Jordan Nwora who scored 17 ppg last year while shooting 45%. He joins Winston and Tre Jones among the players we’ve mentioned so far who are widely regarded as pre-season all-Americans. 6-11 Malik Williams is also a load. But, the ball-handlers for the Cardinals will be largely newcomers.
4. Kentucky
The Wildcats, as always, have a recruiting class that is ranked somewhere from #2 to #4. There’s gotta be some scorers in there somewhere.
5. Florida
6-10 Kerry Blackshear spent 3 years at Virginia Tech but has transferred to Florida for his final year of college ball. He went 15-7-2 with 57% shooting in his most recent season. The Gators will also feature 6-5 freshman Scottie Lewis.
6. Duke
Duke lost as much or more talent from last year as anybody, including Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish. But, they, too, have a recruiting class ranked from #2 to #4. Tre Jones returns at the point guard, but the frontcourt (and most of the scoring) could be provided by freshmen including Matthew Hurt of Rochester John Marshall.
7. Memphis
7-0 freshman James Wiseman is the #1 freshman in the high school class of 2019. He was 26-15-5 in his final year of high school.
8. Cincinnati
Jarrod Cumberland is a 6-5 senior shooting guard who went 19-4-4 last year, but only shot 40%.
9. Virginia
Virginia lost its top 3 players but returns 6-9 Mamadi Diakite (6 ppg, 55% shooting) and shooting guard Braxton Key (8 ppg, 43%).
10. Maryland
Maryland will be big. Its top scoring threats, along with point guard Cowan, would appear to be 6-10 sophomore Jalen Smith (12 ppg, 49%) and 7-0 freshman Chol Marial.
11. Gonzaga
Gonzaga will be huge with 3 foreign players from 6-10 and up and a 4th at 6-6. The latter, freshman Martynas Arlauskas, from Lithuania, looks to be the best of them. Killian Tillie, a Frenchman, and Filip Petrusev, a Serb, return from last year when the 2 of them combined for 14 ppg on 55% shooting.
12. Arizona
Let’s just say that the Wildcats recruiting class is rated #2 through #5 by the major recruiting experts. One is a point guard, the other 3 are 6-6, 6-10 and 6-11.
ALERT: This Is My Actual Prediction, Right Here, Right Now!
OK, I said that a kamikaze defense is the 3rd ingredient but I’m not going to expound about it. I’ll be using it as a factor in the predictions though.
The Final Four, or the One Percent
1. Michigan State. Loaded.
2. Kansas
3. Kentucky
4. Duke. Could be in any order, but Kansas has considerably more experience and so they go first.
The Elite Eight
5. Maryland. The 5th and final team to rank in the top 12 at the “1” and among the shooters.
6. Villanova. Could get overpowered by the big boys, but they’ll be quick and fun to watch.
7. North Carolina. Assuming Cole Anthony is the real deal.
8. Louisville. Unproven at the “1” spot.
Sweet Sixteen
9. Florida.
10. Gonzaga. Nobody is going to ask, “Where’s the beef?” but they might wanna know “Where’s the fluffy bun?”
11. Marquette. Is the supporting cast good enough?
12. Arizona. Great recruiting class, not sure the veteran talent is there, I mean, in terms of a Final Four.
13. Virginia. Is point guard Kehei Clark ready for primetime?
14. Seton Hall. Is the supporting cast good enough?
15. Memphis. #1 recruiting class but expectations from their veterans are not that high.
16. St. Mary’s. Could knock of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference.
Dark Horses
17. Texas Tech. Some have them in the top 10. I don’t see it.
18. Oregon. Lots of new faces. Lots of upside. But prove it.
19. Xavier. Will be good, but how good?
20. Auburn. Like most successful teams, almost everybody turned pro.
21. Utah State. Great 1-2 punch at their level, but I don’t know about beating the big guys.
22. Baylor. Lots of upside, but prove it.
23. Washington. One of the top freshmen, but I don’t think there’s Sweet Sixteen type talent otherwise.
24. Ohio State. This might be a stretch. Then again, it might not.
25. Michigan. This might be a stretch. Then again, it might not. They’re deep but might be lacking at the go-to position.
All-America
I’m old-fashioned. An all-America team is 5 guys that you could actually put out on the floor together. Obviously, you’d like a real “3” on these teams, but who exactly would that be? The best athletes out there top out at 6-3. That’s just the way it is.
Center—James Wiseman, Memphis, 7-0, Fr.
Forward—Jordan Nwora, Louisville, 6-8, Jr., 17 ppg-6 reb-45%
Point Guard—Cassius Winston, Michigan State, 6-1, Sr., 19 ppg-7 assists-47%
Off-Guard—Markus Howard, Marquette, 5-11, Sr., 25 ppg-4 reb-4 assists-45%
Off-Guard—Tre Jones, Duke, 6-3, Soph., 9 ppg-4 reb-5 assists-2 steals-41%
2nd Team
Center—Udoka Azubuike, Kansas, 7-0, Sr.
Forward—Kerry Blackshear, Florida, 6-10, Sr., 15 ppg-7 reb-57%
Point Guard—Devon Dotson, Kansas, 6-2, Soph., 12 ppg-4 reb-3 assists-48%
Off-Guard—Myles Powell, Seton Hall, 6-2, Jr., 22 ppg
Off-Guard—Cole Anthony, North Carolina, 6-3, Fr.
Next Up—The Big 10. After that, the Minnesota Gophers.
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