Okay, now we turn to the NBA West, where most of the top talent resides, especially with Kawhi Leonard moving out to the left coast. Actually, most of the other big talent who moved in the west moved within the west, not into the west. Still it’s an impressive list: Anthony Davis, Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Iguadola, any one of whom the Knicks would have given somebody’s first-born child to get. But, no, we want to play in the West. It’s where the talent is.
So, everybody knows there’s a logjam at the top among Houston, who landed Westbrook (for Chris Paul); the L.A. Clippers, who landed Leonard and George; the L.A. Lakers, who landed Davis and Cousins; and Denver, who mostly stood pat. Could Golden State even get into the mix? No. More about that presently.
1. Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers won 48 games last year, tied for 7th and 8th in the West, and lost in the 1st round of the playoffs. Not an auspicious record on which to build. But, has any team ever signed 2 free agents of the magnitude of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Well, probably. But, still, this is awesome. Leonard is the bigger star, having led the Toronto Raptors to the NBA title last year with 27 ppg and making 2nd team all-NBA and 2nd team all-NBA defense. Still, George scored 29 ppg and made 1st team all-NBA and 1st team all-NBA. Both are listed as small forwards but Leonard is 6-7 (with a 7-3 wingspan), George 6-9 (or 6-10, according to one report). George scores from everywhere while Leonard’s outside shot was long regarded as a liability, but his 732 points in last year’s playoffs was #3 all-time behind LeBron and Michael.
Along with George and Leonard, the Clips also added JaMychal Green and Maurice Harkless (among others), who scored 9 and 8 apiece for Memphis and Portland, respectively. Both are (are you ready for it) small forwards at 6-7 and 6-9.
The Clips return power forward Montrezi Harrell and 7-1 post Ivica Zubac.
But, wait, who are the guards? Lou Williams is the best of the lot but he’s 6-1 and has almost never started. He signed out of high school back in 2005 and is a 3-time 6th Man of the Year, including 2019 when he set an all-time NBA record for points off the bench. He scored 20 ppg last year. Landry Shamet is a 6-4 shooting guard who scored 11. Patrick Beverley is also a 6-1 guard who scored 8 ppg last year. Rodney Magruder is one of the others mentioned above, a 6-4 shooter who scored 8 for Miami last year.
So, the true guards are unimpressive, to be sure, but the 2 spot will be occupied by one of those many forwards listed above. George and Leonard are skilled perimeter defenders who will probably man the 2-3 spots. The guess is that Harrell and Zubac start inside. The point guard is a question. Williams is so good off the bench, it would be a shame to start him. The bench, in fact, is remarkably deep. Still the Clips essential identity will be as the best defensive team in the league, and in Doc Rivers, they’ve got one of the top coaches around. Chalk the Clips down for 60 wins and 1st place in the west. The other previews have them #1, #2 and #6!!
2. Los Angeles Lakers. OK, so the Lakers have LeBron and now they have Anthony and DeMarcus. Yikes. But, the best thing about these Lakers is no more Lonzo Ball and all of the soap opera he and his dad brought to the team. You don’t have to root against LeBron and the Lakers anymore.
So, speaking of LeBron. He played in the fewest games of his career last year, 55, and he fell to 3rd team all-NBA after 12 straight years on the 1st team. His shooting percentages of 51-34-66% were among the lowest in a decade (the 66% FT was his lowest ever). So, is he 100%? Is he 80% of the player that he was? I mean, the guy will be 35 years old this year.
But, make no mistake, in Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, the Lakers will have the most formidable front line pairing in the NBA, if Cousins TCB. Davis, 6-10, mobile, always a great defender who has doubled his scoring over the course of his career to 26 ppg last year. Cousins, strong, ornery, he is known for his emotional outbursts, technical fouls and suspensions almost as much as anything else, but he acted in a mostly mature manner as an afterthought with the Golden State Warriors last year, scoring 16 ppg, lowest since his rookie season. He has also had some injuries and has not played a full season since 2016.
Beyond this Big 3, the Lakers have a lot of athletes, including returnees Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Rajon Rondo and JaVale McGree, and newcomers Avery Bradley, Quinn Cook and Danny Green. Coach Frank Vogel is also a newcomer to the Lakers, but has 2 previous stints as NBA coach with some success. But, who is really gonna coach LeBron and DeMarcus? LeBron and DeMarcus, that’s who. The Lakers won just 37 games last year. They might be a little thin in the backcourt but they’re deeper overall than Houston or Denver. They’ll win at least 50 and maybe 55. The other previews have them at #2 and #3.
3. Houston Rockets. I think most of the “smart money” will be on the Rockets this year, not the Clips. The other previews have them 1st, 1st and 5th! Their Big Two is probably better than George and Leonard, well, on offense. I’m talking about James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the NBA MVPs for 2018 and 2017, respectively, together on one team. Westbrook, of course, came over in the trade for Chris Paul, which was almost a salary dump by Westbrook’s old team, the Thunder. Paul’s skills have slipped to the point that Houston used Harden at the point guard for much of last year. Now the question is, is one ball gonna be enough for the 2 MVPs. I mean, one ball is barely enough for Harden himself. But here’s the real catch. On a scale from 1 to 10, on offense Harden and Westbrook are a 10, George and Leonard maybe an 8.5. On defense, George and Leonard are a 10, Harden and Westbrook are a 5 on a good day.
But the real point is that I can’t pick a team featuring James Harden for 1st place. If they win, they win, but I’m not gonna put ‘em there. I hate James Harden’s game, which is based, well, on step-back 3, of course. But, secondly, it’s based on drawing fouls. He initiates contact and he gets the call. It’s boring as hell. I mean, sure, lots of people do that. Harden has led the NBA in FT made for 5 straight years. Kevin Durant led the NBA in FT made the previous 5 years. Karl Malone once led the NBA in FT made for 5 straight years. But Harden is the only guy who repeatedly and constantly takes shots that he can’t make just for the purpose of drawing contact and going to the line. Durant and Malone drew fouls taking shots that they could make. Harden’s not the only one who does what he does, but he’s perfected it and he is a total bore to watch.
Especially the evolution of his jump shot the past couple of years, where he now, when finishing his shot, kicks his legs forward such that they come down in the defender’s landing area. The feet get tangled, Harden lands on his ass, and he gets 3 FT. The way he kicks his feet forward, so that his as is 2 feet further out on the perimeter, he would land on his ass even if there were no defender. But, of course, there is a defender, Harden lands in the defender’s landing area, there is contact and Harden gets the call. NBA rules say a defender cannot crowd a shooter such that he takes away the shooter’s landing zone. And, of course, lots of shooters jump forward while shooting, forcing officials to make tough judgments about where the landing zones are. But Harden sticks his feet into the defender’s landing zone for the sole purpose of getting a foul call, which he more often than not in the past 2-3 years has gotten. Some officials have started to wise up to what Harden is doing, but not enough.
Still, you’ve got to hand it to the Rockets who have become the poster children of 21st century basketball and have really led the charge of the newest basketball philosophies as they’ve gone from radical to orthodox in a matter of a few short years. That is, shoot 3s and layups. DO NOT SHOOT MID-RANGE JUMPERS!!!
The point is that if you run your offense well, if your players know how and when to cut, you can shoot 75-80% or more on your layups, and you use the 3 to open up those cutters in the lane. Of course, you also want to make, oh, say, 40% of your 3s in the NBA. In Minnesota high schools it’s 30-32% but that was good enough that in the 2019 state tournament, across 28 championship round games, teams made 54% of their 2s. So Houston, over the past several years, has done just that, and they’ve won an average of 53 games a year, trailing only Golden State, Toronto and San Antone for that period.
And, Westbrook is a solid NBA point guard, an MVP, the only player in NBA history to lead the league in both scoring and assists in multiple seasons. He is #2 all-time for triple doubles, but he is not a great 3-point shooter and he turns it over a bit. He has, however, a great mid-range game, but is that what the Rockets really want. Coach Mike D’Antoni probably has as good of chops as anybody in finding ways to make this duo work on offense. On defense, well, we’ll see.
The Rockets gave up a ton to get Westbrook but managed to hang on to center Clint Capela (17 ppg) and shooting guard Eric Gordon (16 ppg). If the Clips are loaded with 3s, the Rockets are loaded with 2s and might be a little thin up front. Still, they won 53 games with Harden and Paul last year. They’ll win 55 with Harden and Westbrook this year. The Lakers have more question marks. If they all come up “yes,” the Lakers will be better, but there’s more question marks there. Still, I hate Houston so, Go Lakers!
4. Denver Nuggets. Denver has increased its win total every year since 2015, and they’re the only NBA team to do that. The numbers are 30, 33, 40, 46 and 54. They largely stood pat in the off-season, losing free agents Isaiah Thomas and Trey Lyles while adding forward Jeremi Grant (14 ppg) from Oklahoma City. Everybody else returns including a bevy of guards—Will Barton (11 ppg), Malik Beasley (11), Gary Harris (13), Monte Morris (10) and Jamal Murray (18). Nikola Jokic (20 ppg) and Paul Millsap (13) return up front. This is a remarkably balanced team, probably better able to sustain an injury or two without a noticeable loss of efficiency. If they won 54 with this bunch last year, they’ll win 54 this year. The other previews have them #2-3-4.
5. Utah Jazz. The Jazz swapped out point guards with Ricky Rubio out and Mike Conley in. That sounds like an upgrade. The Jazz also have guys like Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell coming back. But, hey, this is the west. 50 wins is nothing, and that’s what the Jazz got last year. With the Lakers and Clippers much improved, we’ll say that the Jazz are also better, but they’ll still be stuck at 50 wins. The other previews have them at #4, #5 and #6.
6. Golden State Warriors. How far will the Warriors fall? Well, they’ve already fallen, from that remarkable 73-9 season to 67 to 58, then 57 wins and the loss to Toronto last year. Now they’ve lost Kevin Durant and Cousins and Klay Thompson to an injury through about January. So for the 1st half of the year this will be the Stephen Curry-D’Angelo Russell show. I mean, Draymond Green is back and Willie Cauley-Stein is a nice addition, but it will be up to Curry and Russell to make this team go. We know Curry is up to the job, we’re not totally convinced re. Russell, and as to how they’ll work together, we’ll just have to wait and see. Suffice it to say that Russell, playing the point guard with some pretty good teammates, has never been a big assist guy. And, then, when they get Thompson back in January, it will be learning time all over again. So, 50 wins might be a reach. The other previews have them anywhere from #4 to #7.
For a 5-time NBA finalist, though, the regular season is not something anybody is going to remember. So, think about it now. This fall, the question is, Will D’Angelo Russell learn how to play with Stephen Curry. If the answer is yes, then in the winter, Klay Thompson will figure out how to play with D’Angelo Russell. And if all of that goes well, whether they’re #6 or #5 or #7 or whatever, they’ll be a tough out come springtime. My little preview suggests they’ll get Houston in the 1st round. That would be a wonderful time for the Warriors to be clicking on all cylinders and sending James Harden to an early summer. One can only hope.
7. Portland Trailblazers. Portland has exchanged some role players, adding Kent Bazemore and Hassan Whiteside and Pau Gasol in place of Moe Harkless, Farouq Aminu and Enes Kanter. Overall, it seems that they’ve upgraded things a little bit. But, in the end, the only thing that will matter will be how well Damian Lillard (25 ppg last year) and C.J. McCollum (21) play and how well the new guys fit in with them. They won 53 games and 2 playoff series and they’ve upgraded? And they’re forecast for 7th? Well, the other previews have them 6th through 11th! It’s just that they’re so one-dimensional. So predictable. And some of their key adversaries have improved so much! They can only hope for 50 wins this time around.
8. San Antonio Spurs. Like Portland they’ve sorta stood pat, not for lack of trying, and so they’ll be riding LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan (21.5 ppg each) again. Aldridge is 34 and DeRozan 30, so they’re not getting better. Some of the supporting cast may be getting better. But these guys won 48 games last year, up from 47 the previous year but down from an average of 61 the previous 3. They’ll be closer to 47 than to 61, and probably closer to 43.
9. Sacramento Kings. The Kings have the longest non-playoff streak in the NBA, longer even than the T-Wolves at 13 years, yet they’re not that bad. On the other hand, just because they’re 9th here, don’t be thinking this is their year. They’ve got eight pretty good ballplayers but nobody who is an obvious go-to guy. They managed somehow to win 39 games last year. It could happen again. But, the playoffs. Not a chance.
10. Dallas Mavericks. Dallas fell off the table in 2017 and has averaged 30 wins since then. They’re on the way back and as the team that featured Dirk Nowitzki for 21 years, it’s appropriate that they're doing it the European way with Luka Doncic, the 6-7 Slovenian Rookie of the Year last year and, now, Kristaps Porzingis, the 7-3 Latvian acquired in trade with the New York Knicks. The two of them will be the foundation for Dallas for the next decade. Porzingis is 24, Doncic just 20. But, beyond these 2 guys, the cupboard is a little bit bare down Dallas way, and the Mavs might be a year or two away. On the other hand, they might be ready to bypass the Kings right now. Still, let’s move them up to 35 wins, good for 10th, but with a nice future assuming the Mavs can assemble some athletes around these 2 guys.
11. Minnesota Timberwolves. We’ll have a full column with commentary on our local guys.
12. Memphis Grizzlies. Last year was a disaster for the Grizzlies though they won 50% more games than the previous year. Nobody excelled. Mike Conley stepped into the vacuum to post his career high of 21 ppg and then Memphis moved him to Utah for nothing much. Is Memphis going the “tank” route for the next draft? Maybe. OK, they’ve got Jonas Valanciunas, a serviceable big. They’ve got Jaren Jackson at the point guard. They’ve added Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodola. Still, this has more of the look of “pieces” than anything else at this stage. They won 46 games per year for 3 years, then 27 the past 2. They’ll be closer to 27 than 46.
13. New Orleans Pelicans. The big birds lost Anthony Davis and gained Zion Williamson, meaning their entry into the promised land has moved back about 5 years. I mean, one day they’ll be as good as they were in 2018 (48 wins), but probably not until 2023. It’ll be up to point guard Jrue Holiday to try to bring Zion into the fraternity. It’s gonna be a slog.
14. Phoenix Suns. The Suns have been below .500 for 5 years and have declined from 39 to 23 to 21 to 19 wins, and the decline could just as well continue. I mean, they’ve added Ricky Rubio and Frank Kaminsky. ‘Nuff sed.
All-West
Center—Kristaps Porzingis, Dallas
Power Forward—Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers
Small Forward—Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers
Point Guard—Stephen Curry, Golden State
Shooting Guard—Paul George, L.A. Clippers
2nd Team
Center—Karl-Anthony Townes, Minnesota
Power Forward—Kyle Kuzma, L.A. Lakers
Small Forward—Luka Doncic, Dallas
Point Guard—Russell Westbrook, Houston
Shooting Guard—James Harden, Houston
3rd Team
Center—Nikola Jokic, Denver
Power Forward—Montrezi Harrell, L.A. Clippers
Small Forward—LeBron James, L.A. Lakers
Point Guard—Damian Lilliard, Portland
Shooting Guard—Donovan Mitchell, Utah
In the east, we named a 1st and 2nd team. My point here is that the 3rd team in the west is much better than the 2nd team in the east.
Final Predictions—Western Conference
The problem with the methodology used above is that the league as a whole is going to end up at .500. Just predicting how many more or fewer games each team will win may or may not add up. So here we’ve adjusted to make sure it all adds up.
Northwest Division
1. Denver Nuggets 56-26
2. Utah Jazz 52-30
3. Portland Trailblazers 50-32
4. Oklahoma City Thunder 40-42
5. Minnesota Timberwolves 36-46
Pacific Division
1. Los Angeles Clippers 60-22
2. Los Angeles Lakers 55-27
3. Golden State Warriors 52-30
4. Sacramento Kings 36-46
5. Phoenix Suns 18-64
Southwest Division
1. Houston Rockets 57-25
2. San Antonio Spurs 45-37
3. Dallas Mavericks 38-44
4. Memphis Grizzlies 30-52
5. New Orleans Pelicans 26-56
Playoffs
L.A. Clippers 4 San Antonio 1
L.A. Lakers 4 Portland 2
Houston 4 Golden State 2
Denver 4 Utah 2
L.A. Clippers 4 Denver 3
L.A. Lakers 4 Houston 3
L.A. Clippers 4 L.A. Lakers 2
NBA Finals
L.A. Clippers 4 Milwaukee 3
All-NBA
Putting together the all-East and all-West, the all-NBA team for 2020 will be:
Center—Joel Embiid, Philadelphia
Power Forward—Anthony Davis, L.A. Lakers
Small Forward—Giannis Antetekuonmpo, Milwaukee
Point Guard—Stephen Curry, Golden State
Shooting Guard—Paul George, L.A. Clippers
The 2020 NBA MVP will be:
Giannis Antetekuonmpo, Milwaukee
No comments:
Post a Comment