2021 State Tournament Preview--Boys Class AA and A

 Boys Class 2A

There were just a couple of section upsets here--Annandale and Moose Lake were the perpretrators, though I have to say that I had Annandale all the way despite its 3-seed behind Melrose and Mora. Moose Lake not so much though I should note that they're the highest scoring team in the field. Still the 3 major powers here are Caledonia, Mpls. North and Waseca, 2 of whom will play for the title.

So the QF don't look particularly compelling. The one and only possibility of an upset is St. Croix Prep vs. Caledonia, because it's so hard to know what to make of the Prepsters. They're 20-1 and yet they're just #15 in the QRF. They play in the not-tough Skyline conference and their non-conference schedule highlighted the Little Sisters of the Poor. By way of contrast, Legacy Christian from the not-tough MCAA went 20-1 and got a #2 QRF, but that's in Class A. But, all of that aside, I don't expect an upset but I can't say I know if St. Croix Prep is good, bad or in between. Otherwise, it's not that hard to peg the other contenders. So:

• Caledonia 73 St. Croix Prep 56

• Waseca 68 Morris 60. Morris is very possibly the #4 team in this field and so the format didn't do them any favors.

• Mpls. North 82 Moose Lake-Willow River 65. Again, Moose Lake is the highest scoring team in the field (any class) but they also give up the most points (in Class AA).

• Annandale 60 Fergus Falls 52.

In the SF, Waseca knocks off Annandale 69-61.

Then, well, here it comes, the first matchup of the big 3--North vs. Caledonia. Now, keep in mind, Waseca beat North in both 2019 and 2020 while North and Caledonia split a pair of games those same years. But, as far as Caledonia is concerned, let the record show that superstar Eli King went out with a knee injury in January and he won't be back. You might have missed it because Caledonia just kept rolling along. But at this level it becomes a big deal and so North should prevail 66-63.

Final: Both teams have a lot of depth, so this should be a very high energy affair. That might work to North's advantage as Willie Wilson et al might have a little bit of an advantage in the quickness category. And, by depth, I mean 3 bench players who score 6 points apiece. Waseca's depth is one player less deep but they have 2 kids off the bench who score 8 points. So lot's of firepower on both sides. 

If it comes down to quickness: North. If it's decided inside, well, North has 6-6 senior Davon Townley (15 pts, 9 reb) while Waseca has Andrew Morgan, 6-8 senior who is headed to North Dakota State (22 pts, 6 reb). Both are among the state's best big men; Morgan is the best after Holmgren and Tschetter. Advantage Waseca. But the advantages on both sides are small. Still, Waseca has 2 wins over North in recent years. So this could be considered a surprise:

North 65 Waseca 64. Tournament MVP: Willie Wilson, North, senior, guard.

Boys Class A

Okay, this is always the toughest pick among the 8 boys and girls tournaments 1) because Class A has less non-conference play among the elite teams statewide and 2) the boys Class A entries change out a lot while the girls section champs seem to be the same year after year. Here in fact there is almost nobody with any significant tournament experience in recent years.

To wit, 3 teams are making their first state appearance: Deer River, Legacy and Nevis. But, their tournament jitters won't be anything more than everybody else except maybe Central Minnesota Christian. They were here in 2015, 2016 and 2017 and finished 3rd in 2015. Hayfield was here in 2013. Otherwise nobody remembers their last appearance: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 2006, Hancock 2003, Badber-Greenbush-Middle River 2007. Hancock won a title in 1998, Hayfield was runnerup in 2002. But, again, nobody has an advantage in recent tournament play with the exception of CMC.

In the QF in the south:

• #1 Legacy (20-1) and #4 Hayfield (18-4) are a tough pick for a 1 vs. 4. Legacy's not that good and Hayfield's not that bad. They game will be in Rochester. Advantage Hayfield? Nah. But Hayfield's top 2 players are probably better than Legacy's but Legacy goes 6 deep with scoring threats, Hayfield 4. So I'll take Hayfield 65-63.

• #2 Central MN Christian vs. #3 Sleepy Eye St. Mary's is a real toss-up. CMC beat Wabasso by 13, SESM beat Wabasso by 16 and 1. Both of them outscored their opponents by 12 points per game. Both teams can score. I think CMC might be better able to get a really big stop. CMC 66 Sleepy Eye 62.

 In the north:

• Nevis is a solid fave vs. Hancock, though Hancock beat undefeated and #1 QRF Mahnomen, but Mahnomen was never that good. Nevis 62 Hancock 55.

• Deer River should defeat Badger-Greenbush-Middle River. Deer River is the second highest scoring team in the field (all classes) but only 4 teams have given up fewer points than BGMR. A buddy of mine says that good defense is just bad offense. I think that means that if Deer River is really a good offense, they should win. I think. Deer River 66 BGMR 57.

In the semis:

• Deer River 68 Hayfield 64

• Nevis 65 CMC 58

So 2 first-timers meet in the final. Nevis is deeper. I like Nevis 65 Deer River 64. Tournament MVP: Eddie Kramer, Nevis, 6-4, junior, F.

State Tournament Preview 2021 Boys--Class AAAA and AAA

Well, first of all, thank goodness there's a state tournament, and here's hoping that it is played out to the end, until we have 8 2021 Minnesota state high school basketball champions. Of course, due to COVID, we've got an unusual format. We've had 1st round games out in the hinterlands before but never quite like this:

In each class--boys 4A, 3A, 2A and A and girls 4A, 3A, 2A and A--the four southern sections--1, 2, 3 and 4--will be seeded 1 through 4, and ditto the four northern sections--which are of course 5, 6, 7 and 8. The 2 winners from the south and the 2 winners from the north will come to the Twin Cities for the semi-finals and finals. There will be no 3rd place game and there will be no all-tournament. Well, of course, there will be all-tournament teams picked by various media, including right here. But it's weird that the MSHSL will not pick an all-tournament team because they almost never give any consideration to 1st round losers, even when there are consolation games. Oh well.

Boys Class 4A

Champlin Park is the only unbeaten at 21-0 and has been rated #1 all year long and is #1 QRF. The obvious challenger is Wayzata at 16-2 and #2 QRF. They have no common opponents but Champlin outscored its opponents by an average of 70-54, Wayzata by an impressive 78-59. Champlin's signatures are a 75-65 win over Totino-Grace and a pair of OT wins vs. Park Center, including in the section final. Wayzata lost to Hopkins and Minnehaha by 7 each, but bounced back to beat Hopkins.

Champlin is led by a classic inside/outside duo, both seniors: 6-7 Francis Nwaokorie (19 ppg) and 6-1 Joshua Strong (6-1). Wayzata would seem to have more weapons with juniors 6-9 Carter Bjerke and 6-6 Camden Heide, both of whom can score both outside and in; and 6-1 senior Eddie Beeninga. Both teams are in the north half of the draw and fortunately they won't meet until the finals. So often the finals comes down to guard play, so Strong vs. Beeninga will be key. On the other hand, on paper Bjerke and Heide might be a little too much for Champlin. If they both play well, Wayzata wins. 

We see the quarterfinals like this: 

• #1S Shakopee takes on the tournament's biggest Cinderella team, Owatonna. Owatonna beat #1 seed Lakeville South rather impressively in the Section 1 final, 94-85, and #4S seems like kind of a tough draw. But the Big 9's AAAA teams get killed on QRF because 7 of the 12 teams in the conference are AAA. Still, Mankato West, who finished 4th in the Big 9 at 13-4 but won Section 2AAA, got a #2 seed. But, Byron, who beat Big 9 champion Austin in 1AAA, also got a #4 seed. You know darn well Austin would have been #2 and Byron beat 'em. These seeds can be downright irrational and the southeastern (Section 1) teams in all classes end up all over the place because they play more games outside their class than most other teams. 

So anyway, Shakopee uses its depth to grind out wins. Owatonna relies on 6-8 Evan Dushek and 6-2 guard Brayden Williams, both juniors. Owatonna beat Lakeville South by 9, as we said. Shakopee split with South, winning by 27 and losing by 3. This game will be at Hastings, and we'll take Owatonna in an upset 59-57.

• Cretin beats Rosemount in another tight game, 61-59.

• Champlin beats Maple Grove 63-54 in an unfortunate conference matchup.

• Wayzata defeats Duluth East 74-63.

In the semis, Champlin beats Cretin 73-68, and Wayzata beats Owatonna 75-63.

Final: Wayzata 71 Champlin 69, Tournament MVP: Camden Heide, Wayzata, junior, F.

Boys Class 3A

Minnehaha is the prohibitive favorite here, but for now the story line is the 5 #2 and lower seeds that advanced to the state tournament, creating some interesting 1st round matchups. By next week, however, the talk will return to Minnehaha. The irony is that a year ago the Minnehaha people were talking up their team as the greatest in Minnesota history which, after 3 losses including one to undefeated Eden Prairie, turned out to be a pretty gross case of self-promotion. This year, there is no such talk, at least not that I've heard, but at the very least there is a very good chance that Minnehaha is the best team in Minnesota. The quite obviously have the best player in 7-footer Chet Holmgren, who is also regarded as the best 2021 player in the country. Its 70-63 win over Wayzata will be Exhibit A if both Minnehaha and Wayzata go on to win their respective championships, as is the prediction here.

The previously mentioned upsets include Byron over #1 Austin in Section 1AAA, Richfield over South St. Paul in 3, #7 Monticello over Delano in 5, and, well.... I don't consider DeLaSalle or Hibbing to be upsets, really, though neither was seeded #1. In any event, the 1st round seeds were pretty complicated with all the sectional upsets but here is where we ended up:

Byron has the unenviable task of facing Minnehaha. As noted above, #4 was a really tough seed considering they beat Big 9 champion Austin in the section final. Byron is seeded 2 spots below Mankato West in the AAA south despite the fact that West finished 4th in the Big 9, 3 spots below Austin.The Big 9's AAAA teams get killed by QRF because the conference includes those 7 AAA teams. The AAA teams get a big boost from playing the 5 AAAA teams in the conference. Still, here was as good as a head-to-head. Byron, with 2 losses, clearly should have been #2 ahead of West and Richfield with 4 losses each. Not only that but Byron may very well have the 2nd best prospect in AAA in 6-9 junior Ahjany Lee, but you won't see him on TV.

• Minnehaha 75 Byron 62.

• Mankato West and Richfield are pretty close to a toss-up but we'll take West 68-63.

• Once-beaten Alexandria snags the #1 seed in the north and clobbers 8-13, #7 seed Monticello 66-55.

• Hibbing gets the unenviable task of playing DeLaSalle; don't care if the Islanders lost 5 and were seeded #2; I don't want any part of them in round 1. Still Hibbing has a shot and in fact I'll take the Bluejackets 65-61.

In the semis, again Hibbing gets the matchup from hell. Minnehaha 77 Hibbing 64. And Mankato West escapes Alex 60-58.

Final: Minnehaha 72 Mankato West 58. Tournament MVP: duh, Chet Holmgren, Minnehaha, senior, C.

2021 State Tournament Preview--AA and A Girls

 Class AA

Conspiracy theorists might have some fun with the Class AA seeds and matchups. 1st, 3 of the best 4 teams are in the north unless you think Minnehaha (3 losses) is better than Providence (to whom it lost twice) or Duluth Marshall or Albany, with a total of just 4 losses among them. Then there's a really strange flip-flop in the south where Lake City (3 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 27 points) gets the #4 seed, and Glencoe (4 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points) gets #3. 

As a result, here are the brackets along with the team's rating from 1 to 8 (according to me).

Albany 5 vs. Pelican Rapids 7

Minnehaha 6 vs. Glencoe-Silver Lake 8

New London Spicer 2 vs. Lake City 4

Providence 1 vs. Duluth Marshall 3

Now it's true that Albany has been rated as highly as #1 this year but call me a skeptic. Lake City was just a #3 seed in Section 1 but Section 1 is always very competitive. A key to winning a state title is not losing, and any team that gets a game that it probably can't lose is a giant step ahead of the game. Albany and Minnehaha got those games and yet they're arguably the 5th and 6th best teams in the field. Sure, there's other ways to look at these matchups. The top 6 teams are all contenders. But this is how I see it. All 4 teams in the lower bracket are going to have to win 2 very competitive games just to get to the final.

It is what it is, and here's how we think it's going to go.

As we noted, #1N Albany was rated #1 for awhile. Albany also lost just once, to unbeaten, #1 New London-Spicer, and outscored their opponents by 30 points. And they've got senior guard Paige Meyer. Still, I don't see Albany as a title contender even though there's a very good chance they can get to the final. At this stage, I see Albany beating Pelican Rapids 52-43.

As noted, Minnehaha gets a lucky break, drawing possibly the weakest team in the tournament. Glencoe has the most losses in the field, the lowest QRF and the 2nd lowest average winning margin. Minnehaha wins 59-53. 

Now the going gets really tough. New London-Spicer is unbeaten, rated #1, seeded #1S, and they draw an opponent to whom they could just as easily lose. It's a tough draw for Lake City, too, obviously, against the #1 overall seed and a team that has state tournament experience from last year, which experience Lake City lacks. The Lakers might have a better chance in the 2nd round. Here it's NLS 57 Lake City 56.

Providence went 20-1 losing only to Concordia, and outscored its opponents by 31 points, yet was just #9 in QRF. They beat state tourney entry Minnehaha twice and won 3 section games by an average of 24 points. 5-6 7th grader Maddyn Greenway, daughter of the old Viking LB, has emerged as Minnesota's newest superstar, scoring 21 ppg. I like Providence to go all the way. But Duluth Marshall has the best player in the AA field and maybe Ms. Basketball in Gianna Kneepkens, the state's leading scorer at 42 ppg. Not only that but Duluth has state tournament experience from last year as well. Still, like I said, I like Providence to go all the way and they can't do that unless they win this win. Providence 52 Duluth Marshall 49. 

In the SF, Providence 52 New London 50, and Albany 55 Minnehaha 53. Like I said, it's tight, and if you scrambled the seeds and matchups, you could just as easily have Duluth Marshall and Lake City in the final. But you don't, or won't.

Final: Providence 56 Albany 51. Tournament MVP: Paige Meyer, Albany, senior, PG.

Class A

There's a little less to argue about in Class A. Well, there's the south seeds where Houston comes in 18-0 and gets #4 and a 1st round date with defending state champion (2019) and probable 2020 champion until it was cancelled, also unbeaten, Minneota at 22-0. The problem is that Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, who ended up #3, in unbeaten, too. Mayer Lutheran, on the other hand, has 2 losses. Why not them #4? Well, Mayer Lutheran is #1 QRF, Sleepy Eye #6 and Houston just #14. So who really deserves to get Minneota in the 1st round? How about 17-5 West Central? Well, they're in the north.

So, again, it is what it is, and here is what it really is.

#1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 56 #4N West Central 47

#3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 65 #2S Mayer Lutheran 63

#1S Minneota 58 #4 Houston 52

#2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 61 #3N Cass Lake-Bena 52

In the SF, #3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 #1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 57, and

#1S Minneota 56 #2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 55

In the final, well, the best player doesn't always win, but it helps to have the best player, and the best player in this field, previously unmentioned, is Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye junior guard.

Final: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 Minneota 55. Tournament MVP: Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, junior, guard

2021 State Tournament Preview--Girls AAAA and AAA

Well, first of all, thank goodness there's a state tournament, and here's hoping that it is played out to the end, until we have 8 2021 Minnesota state high school basketball champions. Of course, due to COVID, we've got an unusual format. We've had 1st round games out in the hinterlands before but never quite like this:

In each class--boys 4A, 3A, 2A and A and girls 4A, 3A, 2A and A--the four southern sections--1, 2, 3 and 4--will be seeded 1 through 4, and ditto the four northern sections--which are of course 5, 6, 7 and 8. The 2 winners from the south and the 2 winners from the north will come to the Twin Cities for the semi-finals and finals. There will be no 3rd place game and there will be no all-tournament. Well, of course, there will be all-tournament teams picked by various media, including right here. But it's weird that the MSHSL will not pick an all-tournament team because they almost never give any consideration to 1st round losers anyway, even when there are consolation games. Oh well.

Among the girls there are an astonishing total of 9 unbeatens. Imagine coming into the state tournament unbeaten like, say, Houston at 18-0 and getting a #4S seed. But, that's what happened. In AAAA one of the 1st round games will match unbeatens Chaska and Stillwater. This (the 9 unbeatens) is of course in part a function of fewer games played and specifically a lack of non-conference games for some schools. So, in other words, easier-than-normal schedules.

Among the girls, you also had a relatively small number of section upsets. None in 4A though unbeaten Stillwater needed on OT to defeat East Ridge. Only one, really, in 3A. #3 Austin also advanced but that was after #1 Red Wing was COVIDed out. There were 4 in 2A and 2 in A. That made the seedings a lot easier.

So here we go.

Class AAAA Girls

With 4 unbeatens, Class 4A still remains the province of the Hopkins Royals and their 77 straight wins until somebody proves otherwise. Forest Lake drew the Royals in the 1st round, and the winner of Chaska and Stillwater, both unbeaten, will get Hopkins in the semi. Farmington, #1 in the south, is the favorite to return to the final for the 2nd straight year. Last year's final was of course cancelled. So this year could be a case of double or nothing.

Both of the 2-3 games should be great games by the way. Chaska and Stillwater, well, have I mentioned that they're unbeaten? Point guards Kennedy Sanders and Alexis Pratt are 2 of the state's best but I don't think Stillwater has anybody up front to slow down Mallory Heyer, Gopher recruit with 22 ppg. Still, this is as good as a tossup. Stillwater got its bad game out of its system in the section vs. East Ridge. Ditto Centennial and Elk River, who split a pair of regular season games. This game may be decided in the post where Centennial's Jenna Guyer and Elk's Johanna Langbehn are solid.

So in the QF, we like Hopkins by double digits, Farmington by 8, Elk River by 4, and Chaska by 2.

In the SF, Hopkins beats Chaska by a dozen, and Farmington beats Elk River by 6.

In the final, Farmington's chances will be governed by 6-5 post Sophie Hart, and whether she can single-handedly slow down Hopkins 6-footers Maya Nnaji, Nunu Agara and Taylor Woodson. It says here that's too much to ask but if Farmington's sharpshooters Peyton Blandin and Paige Kindseth manage to hit at least a half dozen 3s, then it could be closer than expected. Still, we see Hopkins getting to 80 straight wins, 67-60, and that would only be Hopkins 3rd closest game of the year. So, again, don't count your chickens. But anything other than a Hopkins title will be an upset.

AAAA MVP: Maya Nnaji, Hopkins, 6-4, junior, C

Class AAA Girls

2020 finalist Becker was rated #1 all year until losing by 1 at Holy Angels and then to AAAA Minnetonka and Hopkins before winning 2 section games by an average of 86-34 to return to the big show. The final rankings had Becker #3 behind Hill-Murray and Holy Angels, and QRF had them ranked the same way. But, make no mistake, Becker is the team to beat. Hill-Murray outscored its opponents by an average of 26 points, Holy Angels 24 and Becker 41. 

But, wait. Becker beat Big Lake by just 6 in the section. Hill-Murray beat Mahtonedi by 3. Holy Angels did win by double digits, beating Benilde by 11. Still, making AAA will be more competitive than you thought.

And consider that after the "big 3," Marshall is unbeaten after beating Waconia by 7. So let's just say "big 4," and all 4 should advance, despite the close calls.

Becker has 5 girls averaging in double figures, led by senior point guard Julia Bengtson (15 ppg). You cannot stop all of them. And they have 6 girls who made at least 10 3-pointers and shot 34 percent among them. Sophomore Maren Westin made 47 percent of her 3s. They'll beat Alexandria 73-60 in the 1st round.

Now, don't get me wrong. Holy Angels is a great team with 4 girls scoring in double figures and something of a size advantage inside. The Stars beat Becker 71-70 as Becker made just 14-of-44 3s and just 9-of-29 2s, not to mention 12-of-22 FT. The Stars are the better defensive team, but it's hard to see Becker shooting like that again. Holy Angels gets perennial power Grand Rapids in the 1st, and wins 64-54.

Hill-Murray is a more conventional team with 3 double-digit scorers, and Ella Runyon's 19 ppg is the best on any of the 3 teams. Hill-Murray gets Austin in the 1st, who has also been here before, and grinds it out 55-47.

Marshall gets St. Croix Lutheran, the only real upset winner in the field with a 1-point win over St. Paul Como in the section final. Marshall is led by Jordyn Hilgeman and her 21.5 ppg and if the top 4 teams go down to the wire, I want Hilgeman shooting the ball for the win at the buzzer. Marshall 61 St. Croix Lutheran 54.

Marshall ironically has rivalries going with all 3 of the other SF. Holy Angels upset the Tigers en route to the 2016 state title. Becker beat Marshall on a last-second 3 in the 1st round in 2018, and Marshall coach Dan Westby said, maybe we should just send Becker the next couple of state title trophies. And Marshall and Hill-Murray used to play home-and-home every year.

In the SF, Marshall renews its rivalry with Holy Angels and turns the tables on 2016, 62-57. 

In the other SF, Becker beats Hill-Murray 69-61.

Final: This one won't go to the last second but it will be a great game. Becker 77 Marshall 72. Tournament MVP: Julia Bengtson, Becker, senior, PG.