OK, first of all, I don't usually write about baseball. And, secondly, having asked myself, is this the worst Twins team ever, I have to say that with a little bit of research I can safely say that, no, it's not. That's not to say that it couldn't become the worst ever. Not only that but (SPOILER ALERT), the Twins bullpen is now 1-12 and projects out to a 7-30 record for the full season. This would have to represent a very powerful indictment of the people who represent themselves as the Twins "brain" trust.
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The worst Twins team ever was, in my view, the 2013 team and after 36 games, they were 18-18. Nobody was asking if they were the worst Twins team ever at that stage. But they went 48-78 after that. Among all of the Twins teams that played below .400 or had a pythagorean W-L under .400, that was the worst record ever after 36 games.
Here are the candidates:
1982 60-102, .370 with a pythag of .401, so based on runs for and against, they were a bit unlucky. They were outscored by approximately 1.0 runs per game 5.0 to 4.0. They started 11-25 and finished 49-77, just one game better than that 2013 team. So they started unlucky and they stayed unlucky. But, let's be honest. If they had finished at .401 (65-97), well, you'd have to say they were unlucky...and bad.
1995 56-88, .389 with a pythag of .394, so they got about what they deserved. They were outscored by an appalling 1.3 runs per game, 6.2 to 4.9. They played 144 games due to a late start due to the work stoppage that killed the 1994 World Series. They started 11-25 and finished 45-63, a not quite respectable .417. So I would say that they can't be the worst because at least they improved over the course of the year.
2011 63-99, .389 with a pythag of .383, so they actually won a game or two more than they should have with their run differential of 5.0 to 3.8. They started 12-24 and finished a not quite respectable 51-73 (.411), so they improved a little bit but not enough for that to become an excuse like the 1995 crew.
2013 66-96, .407 with a pythag of .388, so they won several more games than they deserved with a run differential of 4.9-3.8. They started 18-18, as noted, and finished 48-78, a horrific .373.
2016 59-103, .364. This was their worst ever W-L pct. but their pythag of .406 was better than 1995, 2011 and 2013. They were outscored 5.5 to 4.5. Their 36-game start was the worst ever at 10-26 (.278). After that they were 49-77 (.389), just one game better than 2013. If 2013 wasn't their worst team ever, then 2016 was, and if neither 2013 nor 2016 was, then it had to be, ah, well, it's close, but I'll take 1982.
Oh, and of course, 2021. They started 12-24, then of course came from behind as Miguel Sano hit his monthly HR for a come-from-behind 5-4 win. But all the analysis was done this morning and at that time they were 12-24, so they've been worse four times, in 1981, 1982, 1995 and 2016. But, get this. Their pythag is .448, which would translate to 16-20, which sounds a hell of a lot better than 12-24. But, if their bullpen continues to stink up the American League and the Twins remain winless in extra inning games, well, then, a pythag of .448 will continue to deliver one win every three days. So, given the particular weaknesses the Twins have shown, the pythag is not as much of a comfort as a Miguel Sano HR. What's even better than a Miguel Sano HR is a hit, any kind of hit, with RISP which has been almost as much of a problem as blown saves.
So, for the sake of argument, let's say the 2013 Twins were their worst team ever, and let's compare them with 2021 as a way of thinking about how the 2021 bunch is likely to do the rest of the way.
Offense
Catcher--Joe Mauer (2013) vs. Mitch Garver (2021). It's closer than you might think. Mauer missed a lot of games and finished 11-47-.324. If Garver keeps on hitting at his current pace, he would finish at 27-58-.200. Crappy BA and OBA, better power. Still, Mauer was better. Advantage 2013.
1B--Justin Morneau vs. Miguel Sano. Morneau also missed a ton of games and finished 17-74-.259. But Sano has become a historically terrible hitter despite today's tater. At his current rate, he'll finish 9-22--.119, Ouch ouch ouch. Advantage Morneau and 2013.
2B--Brian Dozier vs. Jorge Polanco. Dozier was an average ML hitter at 18-66-.244. Polanco right now is above average with a projection of 13-72-.244. Very small advantage 2021.
SS--Pedro Florimon vs. Andrelton Simmons. Big advantage Simmons and 2021. Say no more, say no more.
3B--Trevor Plouffe vs. Josh Donaldson. Plouffe was slightly below average at 14-52-.254. Donaldson is still well above average when he's healthy. Advantage 2021.
LF--Josh Willingham vs. Jake Cave. Willingham was just slightly below average despite a .208 BA. Cave is way below average with a projection of 4-9-.167. I mean, an OF who has been an almost-regular. 4-9-.167. Advantage 2013.
CF--Aaron Hicks vs. Byron Buxton. Hicks was terrible at this stage (age 23). Buxton, well, it just remains to be a question of staying in the lineup. Even how he projects at 40-76-.370 with an OPS+ way on the high side of 200. Huge advantage 2021 when Buxton gets back. Until then, well, even with Buxton out the Twins have better options than Hicks, just not Jake Cave.
RF--Chris Parmelee vs. Max Kepler. Parmelee was well below average. Kepler remains about average despite his .207 batting average. Advantage 2021.
DH--Ryan Doumet vs. Nelson Cruz. Doumit was an average hitter, Cruz remains way above average and will drive in almost twice as many runs as the 2013 DH. Advantage 2021.
Bench--Oswaldo Arcia and a bunch of nothin' vs. Luis Arraez, Willians Astudillo, Kyle Garlick, Alex Kiriloff and, well, a bunch of unprovens. Still that's a huge advantage for the 2021 crew. Granted there have been some injuries, but I'd suggest that every single at bat taken by Jake Cave should have gone to one of these four guys.
Offense Summary--so the 2013 Twins had an OPS of 90, the 2021 Twins are at 111, still above average despite two or more utter and complete black holes in the lineup every night. But, yes, we've kind of focused on OPS here, so let's add that the 2013 Twins were 13th in the AL in runs scored, the 2021 Twins 8th in runs scored.
So, frankly, the Twins offense still looks OK with a couple of caveats. 1) They get a little bit lucky in timing their hits, that is, a few more come with RISP, which is after all likely. 2) Every Cave and Sano at bat possible goes instead to Arraez, Astudillo, Garlick or Kiriloff, which seems highly unlikely. 3) Donaldson stays healthy, which seems unlikely. With a little luck they should be able to increase their 4.1 runs per game so far and get into the top one-third of AL offenses.
Pitching
2013 was horrible. Starting pitching was the cause of their terribleness. Well, that and Hicks and Parmelee and the bench. It is hard to believe this was just eight years ago. Who were these guys? I barely remember a one of them. Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno and Pedro Hernandez were 31-50 with an ERA of approximately 5.09. As a team the Twins were 14th in ERA+ and 14th in runs allowed and earned runs allowed.
And don't blame the bullpen. Glen Perkins was 2-0 with 36 saves, a 2.30 ERA and a 178 ERA+. Believe it or not, Jared Burton, Josh Roenicke, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Ryan Pressley and Caleb Thielbar were 25-21 with an ERA of 3.35.
The 2021 Twins are of course a Bizarro version of the 2013s. The starting pitching is passable, well, barely. Jose Berrios, Michael Pinieda, Matt Shoemaker, Kenta Maeda and J.A. Happ project out to a total record of 49-49 with an ERA of 4.44. Well, OK, that's just a little more than half a run a game better, but of course the percent of inherited runs that have scored against the Twins bullpen has been historically astronomical. I remember it was 60 percent a few days ago. I mean, that's unheard of. So 49-49 is a lot better than 31-50 and the Twins are fairly well positioned in starting pitching, though Shoemaker is an obvious problem. Lewis Thorpe has shown some potential but beyond that, there is nobody lined up to move into the rotation. So maybe 49-49 is as good as it gets.
Especially if the bullpen doesn't get its act together. Taylor Rogers, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala and a whole bunch of woefully underperforming pitchers right now project out to an astonishing four wins and 54 losses. Think about that. They're already 1-12. There's not a snow ball's chance in hell they get to .500. If they double their wins and cut their losses in half the rest of the way they're still 7-30. That's not an unreasonable expectation right now. Now 49-49 plus 7-30 doesn't quite get you to 162, but it does get you to 56-79 for a .414 W-L or 67-95.
So, 67-95, but, now, that's based on the pitching. If the offense does indeed improve (i.e. get lucky), the Twins could be a little better than that, let's say 5 games, or 72-90. That's better than 18 Twins teams over the years. The 2013 team got worse after 36 games. The 2021 Twins seem destined to get a little bit better despite their obvious problems. So, worst ever? Probably not. But a 7-30 bullpen should tell you everything you need to know about the Twins current management.
