EDIT March 10: Like everyone, I missed Rochester Mayo over Lakeville North and, like a lot of people, I missed Osseo over Roseville. But I got #2 Anoka over #1 Forest Lake in 7AAAA.
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Hopkins is the 1 of 3 teams vying for a 3-peat and, frankly, their the most likely to get it done. Maranatha has already lost to Mountain Iron-Buhl, their likely opponent in the Class A final. DeLaSalle is only rated #5 in QRF and #2 in the AP poll. Though, in truth, I think both will repeat.
And it's true that Hopkins, too, is rated #2 in the AP poll behind Kennedy. But Kennedy lost to Eastview last night for a 3rd loss, and they will not be rated #1 next week. Hopkins will.
Section 1--Lakeville North is a virtual shoo-in in a section that is otherwise made up primarily of non-metro teams. The big question of the day, of course, is why Lakeville NORTH is in the southern Minny section and Lakeville SOUTH is in the metro section. What up wit' dat'? But that's the way it is so Lakeville North (#10 QRF, 17-7) gets the nod.
Section 2--Bloomington Kennedy (#3, 21-3) is rated #1 in the AP poll, like I said, but lost last night. Kenisha Bell has been out with a HAND injury but she came back in last night's loss. I didn't see the game but she scored just 9 points and I'm guessing she's not 100 percent. But probably will be a month from now. If that's the case, they'll win in Section 2. If not, Edina (#4, 20-4) and guard MC McGrory move up.
Section 3--Eastview (#5, 23-1) and guard Maddy Guebert are a shoo-in though I really like Park of Cottage Grove with guards Larissa Lurken and Sydney Lamberty. But Eastview's level? No. Park does not match up with Tyra Johnson and Hana Metoxen in the front-court. Not many do.
Section 4--St. Paul Central (#17, 21-4) is the favorite though QRF likes Woodbury. White Bear Lake matches up with Central better but can't seem to figure Woodbury out (Woodbury swept the season series). EDIT: That's not correct, they split. White Bear could be an upset special here.
Section 5--Roseville (#6, 22-2) is the pick over Centennial but that would be a heckuva game.
Section 6--Hopkins (#1, 22-1) should get by Minnetonka without too much trouble.
Section 7--A weak section but I cannot decide between Forest Lake (#13, 18-6) and Anoka (#18, 16-8). Anoka seems to have more weapons and the 2 extra losses can be understood entirely as an artifact of tougher conference competition (Forest Lake in the Suburban East, Anoka in the Northwest Suburban). So I guess I like Anoka.
Section 8--St. Michael-Albertville (#7, 19-4) remains the prohibitive fave despite the recent loss to Monticello.
Seeds
1. Hopkins
2. Eastview
3. Kennedy or Roseville
4. Roseville or Edina
5. St. Paul Central
Match-Ups
Wild guesses as to the random draw.
Hopkins vs. Anoka. No contest.
Eastview vs. Lakeville North. No contest.
Kennedy vs. St. Michael-Albertville. Kennedy by 10.
Roseville vs. Central. Roseville by 5.
Semis and Finals
Hopkins over Roseville by 8
Eastview vs. Kennedy depends on Kenisha Bell. If she's 90 percent Kennedy, if she's less than that Eastview.
Hopkins repeats. Eastview or Kennedy takes 3rd place.
All-Tournament
C- Tyra Johnson, Eastview, more of a power forward but she's best of the "bigs" so gotta have her.
F- Jade Martin, Kennedy
F- Nia Coffey, Hopkins
G- Maddy Guebert, Eastview
G- Kenisha Bell, Kennedy, if she's 90-95 percent or more; or Jaqlyn Poss, Roseville, or Taylor Stewart, Lakeville North, if she's not.
The Overall All-Tournament Team (All Classes)
C- Savanna Trapp, Esko, 6-9, senior
PF- Jade Martin, Bloomington Kennedy, 6-2, senior
SF- Tyseanna Johnson, DeLaSalle, 5-10, senior
PG- Allina Starr, DeLaSalle, 5-9, senior
SG- Carlie Wagner, New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva, 5-10, junior
2nd Team
C- Elle Thompson, Chaska, 6-2, junior
PF- Tyra Johnson, Eastview, 5-11, senior
SF- Nia Coffey, Hopkins, 5-11, senior
PG- Kenisha Bell, Bloomington Kennedy, 5-8, junior
SG- Maddie Geubert, Eastview, 5-8, sophomore
3rd Team
C- Taylor Reiss, Minneota, 6-1, sophomore
PF- Kylie Brown, Simley, 6-3, junior
SF- Natalie Ratliff, Providence, 6-1, senior
PG- Jaqlyn Poss, Roseville, 5-8, senior
SG- Bailey Strand, Fergus Falls, 5-8, junior
4th Team
C- Onye Osemenam, Maranatha, 6-1, senior
PF- Allie Knuti, Mountain Iron-Buhl, 6-1, senior
SF- Taylor Finley, Providence, 6-0, senior
PG- Leah Szabla, Providence, 5-10, senior
SG- Brianna Rasmussen, Fergus Falls, 5-9, junior
Coaches of the Year
These are not my final picks, these are forecasts based on how I foresee the state tournaments coming out.
AAAA--Brian Cosgriff, Hopkins. Remember they lost both starting guards. Melissa Guebert, Eastview, is #2.
AAA--Tara Seifert, Chaska, edges out Erin Herman, Hill-Murray, who almost gets a young team to the tournament.
AA--Bill Gottenborg, Hawley with Josh Thurow, Minnehaha, second.
A--Jeff Buffetta, Mountain Iron-Buhl, ahead of Tammy Filzen, Faribault Bethlehem.
St. Paul Central will not likely prevail in Section 4. They have not seen the steady diet of high end competition that White Bear or Woodbury have. By the way....White Bear and Woodbury split the season series with no clear favorite. I pick White Bear to outlast Woodbury in Section 4.
ReplyDeleteIn my report on White Bear's recent win at Stillwater I said that White Bear would get to the Section final, but then I realized that Woodbury has already swept the Bears in their season series. Be that as it may, I said that the Bears bigs, Renner and Jones, would match up nicely against Central's size, and it would come down to Alison Hinck vs. Betsy McDonald. As you can see, I got cold feet and went back to Central. I agree an upset could happen.
ReplyDeleteNone of what you write makes any since Kenisha had a hand injury not a knee injury. You have Nia Coffey on the overall second team you sound absolutely crazy she is an All American. You have more kids from the second and third place teams on the 4a all tournament team then the championship team. You have reported wrong information all season long stop writing if you can't report accurately
ReplyDeleteI appreciate all the work you put in covering basketball in Minnesota! I very much enjoy the different topics you write about. I even appreciate when people correct you when facts are inaccurate. It is an impossible task to get it all correct. My point in writing was to inform you that White Bear and Woodbury split their season series this year. Gamer.....you have got to lighten up! The subject matter of All Tournament teams will intentionally generate a lot of controversy. How can you possibly be offended by Coffey being placed on the second team of a tournament that hasn't taken place! There are other really talented girls out there who are just as likely if not more likely to distinguish themselves during the State Tournament.
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