Having seen the unbeaten #1 rated and now #1 seeded Hopkins Royals defeat #2 rated Wayzata 77-60 in the Section 6AAAA final, I've already declared this state tournament to be a mere formality. Seriously, if the #2 team in the state can only stay within 17 of Hopkins, can anybody stay within 17 of the Royals? Well, truthfully, the answer is maybe. It's not no. It's maybe. And, if you want to know who, the answer is also maybe--maybe #2 seed Stillwater, maybe #3 Eastview, maybe #4 Centennial, which is why they're the #2, 3 and 4 seeds.
Hopkins has won 6 state titles under coach Brian Cosgriff, and they've been in 4 straight state finals--a win in 2015, but losses to Minnetonka, Elk River and Eastview the past 3 years. So, that's why they will go head and play the games anyway. Because, maybe. Still, this could be Cos' best team ever but, obviously, it will take a state title to prove that point. It says here that nobody stays within 15 of the Royals and that, yes, this is Cos' best team ever.
So, here are the tournament entries.
#1 seed--Hopkins 29-0 with an insane 84-49 average scoring margin against a pretty tough schedule that included 6 state tournament teams and 3 games against #2 Wayzata. One of the best teams in Minnesota history of course features perhaps the best player in Minnesota history in 6-0 junior guard Paige Bueckers. I've seen her score 40, I've seen her shut down Minnesota's best guards defensively, I've seen her dominate in every way, but Hopkins is so good that they can win even when she doesn't do any of those things. Next year they'll lose rebounder extraordinaire Dlayla Chakolis, but here's who they'll get back along with perhaps the best player in Minnesota history.
6-3 freshman post Maya Nnaji, already a big time defender and rebounder and an OK shooter. 5-9 freshman guard Maya Battle, who badgered one of Minnesota's best point guards, Wayzata's Mimi Schrader, unmercifully. Already a great defender, she scored at will against her age group over the summer and there's no doubt that she will do that at Hopkins someday, probably next year. 5-7 junior guard K.K. Adams, a solid scorer along the lines of last year's senior Raena Suggs. 5-11 8th grade forward Taylor Woodson, another big strong defender who can also attack the rim. This group plays the most aggressive defense you'll ever see at the high school level. They're in everybody's face and Bueckers can hang back and look for the steal.
Stillwater scored 75+, and Centennial, Forest Lake and Lakeville North in the 60s. They will all score 10 points below their average against Hopkins, and there isn't anybody Hopkins can't and won't score 75 to 85 points on. It will be a miracle for anybody to beat Hopkins in 2019...or in 2020.
#2--Stillwater 26-2 with a 75-52 average margin. They're led by veteran coach Willie Taylor and Gopher recruit, senior guard Sara Scalia, a possible Ms. Basketball (with Bueckers, the obvious Player of the Year, being a junior). But Stillwater lost to Hopkins 84-62. That was 3-and-a-half months ago. But which of the two has improved the most since then?
Still, the Ponies also have stars at the other guard spot--sophomore Alexis Pratt--and the post--junior Aliza Karlen. In 3-on-3, they could even stay with Hopkins, maybe, but at 5-on-5 they're closer to Eastview and Centennial than they are to Hopkins.
#3--Eastview 24-5. With just 56 ppg. on average, the defending state champs don't have much of a margin of error. Senior wing Macy Guebert is the only really reliable scorer, so they'll go as far as their defense takes them, as they did in their 42-41 section final win over Rosemount. They're the one team that has showed that it can protect the ball against Hopkins--but, oh, yeah, that was last year.
#4--Centennial 25-4 with 17 straight wins and a 65-44 average margin. It's hard to see how Eastview is #3 and Centennial #4 other than a defending champion's exemption, but that is a difference very largely without a distinction as both Centennial (Maple Grove) and Eastview (Forest Lake) draws an opponent who cannot be safely dismissed. Centennial can score and assuming that 6-4 post Sara Stapleton is healthy, they won't give up a lot of points around the rim. They don't handle it as well as Stillwater or Eastview, however, and if a matchup with Hopkins is in the offing, that is a problem.
#5--Maple Grove 23-6 with a 54-41 average margin, the Crimson are another that will have to win with defense as they did in their 43-42 section semi win over conference rival Elk River. On the other hand, they made a liar out of me, scoring 69 against St. Michael in the section final. Jordyn Lamker is a solid sophomore wing who does a little bit of everything, and their supporting cast improved as much as anybody's this year. St. Michael's guard pair of Kenzie Kramer and Jadyn Hanson outplayed Maple Grove's stars Lamker and Abi Schulte by a modest margin. Who'da thought that the Crimson supporting cast would outplay St. Michael's? But, they did, decisively.
Forest Lake 24-5. Still it's hard to see how Maple Grove eked out that 5th seed ahead of Forest Lake who lost only to Stillwater twice, Roseville twice and Hill-Murray in the Pioneers holiday tournament. With a 64-43 average margin, they're a dangerous opponent if they take care of the ball. Post Abigail Groeneweg and off-guard Lindsay Johnson are great athletes, but primarily a volleyball player and softball player, respectively.
Lakeville North 18-11, lost to Farmington by 14 and 20 during the season, so they slowed it down and beat the Tigers 37-35 in a grinder in the section final for their 4th straight section title. Still they've never been more of a dark horse at state than this year, despite a blue chip scorer in Lauren Jensen. But at a normal pace they have a hard time defending people. And, oh, yeah, they drew Hopkins in the opener.
Shakopee 20-9 is the only section champ seeded lower than #2, and they only score 52 ppg. Still, their experience winning grinders (42-40 and 41-39 in the section) is good practice for the state tournament. The Sabres were 11-16 a year ago, but sophomore guards Natalie Holte and Kelly Brennan have given them a new look.
The Matchups 1st Round Wednesday at Williams Arena
10 a.m. #1 Hopkins 29-0 vs. Lakeville North 18-11. Hopkins 74 Lakeville North 51. Hopkins has way too many weapons.
12 noon. #4 Centennial 25-4 vs. Maple Grove 23-6. Centennial has beaten the Crimson 56-40. This one will be closer. I think the Crimson will be more intent on holding their opponent to 42, as they did Elk River in the section semi, as opposed to scoring 69 themselves, as they did in the final. Centennial 53 Maple Grove 49.
2 p.m. #2 Stillwater 26-2 vs. Shakopee 20-9. Like Maple Grove, Shakopee is much improved this past month and cannot be dismissed. Still, Stillwater has 3 coaches, 2 of them on the floor, in Taylor, Scalia and Pratt. They will not lose their poise on the big stage. Stillwater 62 Shakopee 52.
4 p.m. #3 Eastview 24-5 vs. Forest Lake 24-5. Eastview has always risen to the occasion while Forest Lake has underachieved in big games. Eastview is another one that will not be lacking for poise or ball handling. But, call it a hunch. Forest Lake 53 Eastview 51.
Semi-Finals Thursday at Williams
6 p.m. Hopkins 79 Centennial 57.
8 p.m. Stillwater 66 Forest Lake 58. Stillwater has defeated the Rangers twice by 7 and 14.
Consolation Semis Thursday at Concordia St. Paul
10 a.m. Maple Grove 54 Lakeville North 48.
12 noon Eastview 51 Shakopee 41.
Consolation Final Friday at Concordia
6 p.m. Eastview 55 Maple Grove 52.
3rd Place Saturday at Concordia
5 p.m. Centennial 64 Forest Lake 59.
Championship Saturday at Williams
8 p.m. Hopkins 78 Stillwater 62.
Class AAAA All-Tournament
Hopkins--Paige Bueckers, Dlayla Chakolis, Maya Battle, Maya Nnaji
Stillwater--Sara Scalia, Alexis Pratt
Centennial--Taylor McAuley
Forest Lake--Abigail Groeneweg
Eastview--Macy Guebert
Maple Grove--Jordyn Lamker
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