Eastern Conference
It’s time for some pre-season speculation. What else is there to do in September? And, the first basketball to get underway this fall is the NBA, so we’ll start there, and we’ll start with the East, leaving the West and the Timberwolves to another day. Basically I’ve eye-balled the rosters of the various teams and made a completely seat-of-the-pants judgment of how many games each team will win. Any further trade activity could totally upend things, though that would only be true if such a trade or trades were basically salary dumps. Real trades should (maybe) see relatively equal values changing hands. But, who knows? So obviously we have to go with the rosters as they stand today.
Now, this is not to say that I haven’t looked at some other previews, mostly to be sure I’ve accounted for all of the off-season roster moves. But in doing so, it’s hard not to be influenced by the judgments of the so-called professionals. You know, the folks who write for Web sites. Ahem! And who, pray tell, has such previews posted at the present time? I’ve looked at 538.com, lineups.com and fadeawayworld.com. 538 I’m familiar with, the other 2 not so much.
So, anyway, here goes.
1. Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks of course led the entire NBA with 60 regular season wins last year—and increased their win total 3 straight years—before being dumped by those rascally Toronto Raptors in the eastern final. That made them look pretty bad there for a couple of weeks but then Toronto did the same to the heavily favored defending champs from Golden State, which made Toronto look a lot better and Milwaukee a little better. Certainly injuries had something to do with Golden State’s demise but so did the Raptors. The Raptors then went on to lose Kawhi Leonard to free agency. So, there is no Toronto is going to surprise Milwaukee again. More likely to challenge the Bucks, at least according to the experts, are the 76ers or the Celtics. More about them later.
But for now, more about the Bucks. With Giannis Antetekuonmpo leading the way—and he’s still getting better—the Bucks wisely stayed the course. They re-signed as many of their own free agents as they could afford, starting with Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez. In order to do so, they lost free agents Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic. The loss of Brogdon is not insignificant. I wonder why they didn’t sign Middleton and Brogdon. Well, size matters, I guess.
The experts project the Bucks falling to 54 to 57 wins this year. At least one of them does not have the Bucks at the top of the east. But almost everybody else is not only back but getting better. Well, OK, not Brook Lopez. But, personally, I think they’ll win 60 again and this time, they’ll follow that up with a trip to the NBA finals.
2. Philadelphia 76ers. OK, Jimmy Butler has left the building in Philly, so it’s OK for Minnesota fans to not care if the 76ers are really good. And, they’ll be really good. They won 51 games last year and, basically, they replaced Butler with Al Horford. Horford may not be quite the talent that Butler is when he decides to give a shit, but Horford is one of the best locker room guys in the league, Butler of course one of the worst. No, make that the worst. Then they swapped (for all intents and purposes) Markelle Fultz for Josh Richardson. Again, Richardson may not be the talent (or, that is, have the upside of Fultz) but he is more of a standard 2-3 guy where you know what you’re going to get each night and who therefore may be a better fit. So overall, Philly should be improved if in part by virtue of subtraction.
Still, their upside will be defined mostly by Ben Simmons. Is he the second coming or not? But don’t forget either that the 76ers still have Joel Embiid who definitely is the second coming. So, with Toronto and Boston and the Knicks and Indiana all losing some of their top talent, the best bet is Philly wins 56 games and gets to the eastern finals. And, with some folks still think Simmons might finally become the second coming, well, then, the Phillies have a bit more upside than Milwaukee if all goes well. But, for now, 2nd place.
3. Toronto Raptors. OK, the poor Raptors lost Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Wha! Wha! But, they’ve got Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam coming back, so they’ll not be a pushover. Of course, they won’t win 58 again, nor will they win 2 playoff series, much less 4. But they’ll win 47 times and take 3rd. The other previews have them anywhere from 4thto 7th. I think that’s an overreaction.
4. Boston Celtics. Like the 76ers, Boston swapped out one of its best players, in this case its best player, for a reasonable facsimile who may be a better fit, at least in the drama queen category. Goodbye Kyrie Irving, hello Kemba Walker. Of even greater significance, however: Goodbye Al Horford, hello Enes Kanter. There is no way to see that as anything but a downgrade. I mean, Kanter is not bad but still. Brooklyn could be better and they would be better if Kevin Durant could play. Boston won 49 games last year. For 2020 let’s say Boston wins 45 and takes 4th.
5. Brooklyn Nets. Along with Kyrie Irving, the Nets also added DeAndre Jordan, and lost almost nothing. They won 42 games last year, and they should improve by at least 2-3 games. If Kyrie decides to shut up and play ball, this might be too low. So let’s say they win 45 games, and even if they finish 5th, a 1st round playoff win is not unlikely. The other previews have them anywhere from 3rd to 8th.
6. Miami Heat. If you think you’ve noticed a trend, you’re right. The top 4 challengers to the Milwaukee Bucks are all in the Atlantic Division and why not? That’s where the money is. But even money is not enough to make a competitive team out of the New York Knicks, so we’ll have to look elsewhere for our remaining playoff teams, starting with Miami. Miami added the walking, talking soap opera known as Jimmy Butler, so we’ll see. They’ll probably get one year out of him before it all falls apart. Miami gave Hassan Whitehead away but he looked washed up last year at 23. They won 39 games last year and should improve on that, which would mean 42-43 wins. The other previews have them at 42-44 and 5th to 7th place.
7. Indiana Pacers. The Pacers won 48 games last year with, seemingly, not much beyond Victor Oladipo. Now they’ve brought in Malcolm Brogdon to run with Oladipo, so they should be better. On the other hand, I have no idea how they won 48 last year and I don’t see how they’ll win 48 this year. So 42ish and a 6-7-8 finish seems likely. The other previews have them anywhere from 38 to 46 and 4th to 7th.
8. Orlando Magic. Orlando or Detroit will fill out the playoff qualifiers and get Milwaukee in the first round, and get swept in the deal. The Magic added Markelle Fultz and Farouq Aminu, both better than a sharp stick in the eye so, after winning 42 games a year ago, they could be improved. In fact, we said that Indiana would win 42ish, so something north of 42 wins would actually get the Magic up to the 5th or 6th spot but, frankly, I can’t quite stomach that. So let’s say that they’ll be better but unlucky with 40 wins and 8th place. The other previews have them with 40 to 47 wins and anywhere from 3rd to 10th! I don’t see how they’re better than neighboring Miami.
Outside Looking In
9. Detroit Pistons. Detroit won 41 last year and made the playoffs. They’ve added Derrick Rose but, essentially, they’re the same team as last year except that Blake Griffin is a year older and a year more beat up. Andre Drummond remains a solid young player with upside. In reality, of course, #7-8-9 are almost identical at 40-41-42 wins. 2 will make it. Somebody won’t. So we‘ll say Detroit won’t.
10. Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are young and you gotta wonder about their preference for Trae Young over Luka Doncic in the 2018 draft. But they had one of the better 2019 drafts, at least at this point, with DeAndre Hunter and Cam Reddish, though obviously you never really know about those draft picks. And they got Jabari Parker as a free agent. They won 29 last year, and they’ll be better. Just not enough better.
11. Washington Wizards. Hard to believe the Wiz’s won 60 games just 4 years ago. They won 32 last year. Now John Wall is hurt. Isaiah Thomas and Bradley Beal will be the whole show and they won’t win 32.
12. Chicago Bulls. They’re young. They won 22 last year. They’ll be better but won’t get above 25.
13. Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte lost Kemba Walker and got nothing in return. They won 39 last year and will be hoping to win half that much this year. But, how bad is the east? There will be 2 more teams worse than Washington, Chicago and Charlotte! Sad!
14. Cleveland Cavaliers. Maybe you’ve heard. LeBron’s not in Cleveland anymore. Kevin Love is, for the moment. They won 19 last year. Ditto seems about right.
15. New York Knicks. The Knicks struck out on all of their big-name deals and, after winning 17 games last year, will be happy to do that again. Well, they’ll be happy with less than that so as to get another crack at the #1 draft pick.
All-East
Center—Joel Embiid, Philadelphia
Forward—Giannis Antetekuonmpo, Milwaukee
Guards—Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn
Kirk Lowry, Toronto
Kemba Walker, Boston
2nd Team
Center—Andre Drummond, Detroit
Forward—Blake Griffin, Detroit
Pascal Siakam, Toronto
Guards—Eric Bledsoe, Milwaukee
Victor Oladipo, Indiana
Not exactly a stunning collection of talent when you get down to that 2nd group.
Final Predictions—Eastern Conference
The problem with the methodology used above is that the league as a whole is going to end up at .500. Just predicting how many more or fewer games each team will win may or may not add up. So here we’ve adjusted to make sure it all adds up.
Atlantic Division
1. Philadelphia 76ers 57-25
2. Toronto Raptors 47-35
3. Boston Celtics 47-35
4. Brooklyn Nets 46-36
5. New York Knicks 18-64
Central Division
1. Milwaukee Bucks 61-21
2. Indiana Pacers 45-37
3. Detroit Pistons 43-39
4. Chicago Bulls 26-56
5. Cleveland Cavaliers 19-63
Southeast Division
1. Miami Heat 45-37
2. Orlando Magic 43-39
3. Atlanta Hawks 32-50
4. Washington Wizards 30-52
5. Charlotte Hornets 20-62
Playoffs
Milwaukee 4 Orlando 0
Philadelphia 4 Indiana 1
Toronto 4 Indiana 2
Brooklyn 4 Boston 3
Milwaukee 4 Brooklyn 2
Philadelphia 4 Toronto 2
Milwaukee 4 Philadelphia 3
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