2019-2020 Season Preview: Big Ten Women

Big 10 women’s basketball consists of a 6 haves and 8 have-nots.

School	Regular Season Titles	Outright-Tied	Tournament Titles	NCAA Final/ Comment
The Haves
Ohio State	15	8-7	5	Lost 1993
Purdue	7	4-3	9	Won 1999 Lost 2001
Iowa	9	4-5	3
Penn State—joined Big 10 in 1993	8	5-3	2	But not a Have since Rene Portland retirement
Maryland—joined in 2014	4	2-2	3	Won 2006
Michigan State	4	1-3	1	Lost 2005
The Have Nots
Indiana	1	0-1	1
Nebraska—joined in 2011	0	0-0	1
Northwestern	1	0-1
Rutgers—joined in 2014	0	0-0	0	Lost 2007; really a Have, just not since joining the Big 10
Michigan	0	0-0	0
Minnesota	0	0-0	0
Wisconsin	0	0-0	0

There is of course variability. Even the Haves have off years. 

And Penn State and Rutgers status is a little big misleading. Penn State was a powerhouse under coach Rene Portland from 1980 through 2007, winning 606 games, playing in 21 NCAA tournaments and winning 15 Atlantic 10 championships. In 1986, Portland went on record that she did not recruit and would not allow lesbians to play on her team. Penn State adopted an anti-discrimination policy in 1991 but, hey, Portland was winning. But 46 percent of her players over those 27 years did not complete their eligibility. Portland was sued in 2006, won 28 and lost 32 games in 2006 and 2007, her only losing seasons, then resigned. Portland won three-quarters of her conference games. Her successor, Coquese Washington, won less than half. So, the point is that Penn State’s overall record makes them a Have, but their recent performance does not. 

Rutgers, meanwhile, played in 23 NCAA tournaments in 27 years and has played in 2 in 6 years since joining the Big 10. They won 17 conference championships—regular season and/or playoff—in 23 years in Atlantic 10, but have not won any conference championship in the Big 10. Their Big 10 record makes them a have-not, but their overall record would make them a Have. 

Last year, the Haves (here, I am including Rutgers and not including Penn State) went 69-39 in the conference, and Iowa and Maryland played in the tournament final. The Have-Nots 54-90. In 6 tournament games matching Haves vs. Have-Nots, the Haves won 5 and lost 1. (#13 Wisconsin shocked #5 Ohio State 73-63.)

So all of that is background. The questions here, then, are: Which of the haves will stumble? Which of the Have-Nots will rise up? Last year Michigan State went 9-9 and Purdue 8-10, while Michigan went 11-7, while Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern also went 9-9. 

The Haves

It would be a very unusual year if a Have did not win the regular season and tournament titles. Penn State won several over the years, but as we said, they weren’t really a Have Not until just recently. Otherwise a Have-Not has not won a regular season title since Illinois in 1997. Nebraska won a tournament title in 2014 and Indiana in 2002.

1. Maryland Last year 15-3, 29-5

Maryland should easily repeat as Big 10 regular season champion and should improve on last year’s runner-ups in the tournament. Coach Brenda Freese lost only Brianna Fraser (7 ppg) and returns Kaila Charles (6-1, sr., G, 17 ppg, 49% shooting), Stephanie Jones (6-2, sr., F, 13 ppg, 59%) and Taylor Mikesell (5-11, soph., G, 13 ppg), plus Shakira Austin (6-5, soph., C) and her 9 boards, and 3 other experienced hands. She can go 8 deep with players who played 10 minutes or more last year. 

Their line is: 66 ppg returning-32 rebounds-15 assists-46% shooting as a group-37 minutes returning.

Again, this is returning from a 29-5 group. However, the Terrapins didn’t finish strong, losing to Iowa in the conference tournament and to #6 seed UCLA in the NCAA 2^nd round.

2. Michigan State 9-9, 21-12 

Michigan State and Purdue are Haves though both stumbled a little bit last year. But, both at least won 1^st round games in the conference tournament. But Michigan State returns 3 double digit scorers and 7 double digit minutes performers. They’ve got 3 experienced guards, each of whom averaged 4 assists—5-8 sophomore Nia Clouden (12 ppg, 44%), 5-9 senior Shay Colloy (14 ppg, 37%) and 5-5 senior Taryn McCutcheon (10 ppg, 35%). You’ll note the shooting percentages, however, and hope that the four returning 6-footers, who include Minnesotan Nia Hollie, who shot 48 percent among them, take more of the shots this year.

Jenny Allen and Sidney Cooks and their 21 ppg are gone.

Their line is 56 ppg-25 rebounds-17 assists-44%-32 minutes

3. Purdue 8-10, 19-15

Purdue, meanwhile, lost nobody, and also has 3 double digit scorers and 7 double digit minutes performers back. Guards Karissa McLoughlin (5-7, Jr., 15 ppg, 40%) and Dominique Oden (4-8, Sr., 14 ppg, 43%) are probably a little better shooters than the Spartans guards, but after Ae’Rianna Harris (6-1, Sr., F, 13 ppg. 9 reb, 49%), their bigs (and, for that matter, the entire rest of their roster) do not shoot well at all. So they’ll rely on their big 3 more than Michigan State will have to do. The shooting percentage is their main challenge. McLoughlin and Oden were #1 and #2 in the Big 10 in minutes, which may not be a good sign but, on the other hand, they’re accustomed to the pressure.

Their line is 63 ppg-29 rebounds-14 assists-37%-37 minutes

4. Ohio State 10-8, 14-15

Ohio State continues to rebuild under Kevin McGuff, who seems finally to have hit paydirt with one of the nation’s top recruiting classes led by Canton, OH, already 2-time Ms. Basketball, Kierstin Bell. There are 5 top 60s and 2 international players coming in and I think they’ll outscore the returnees. Still, the returnees are 6-4, 6-3, 6-1, 5-10, and, well, 3 of the 4 shoot it pretty well.

Their line is 30 ppg-17 rebounds-4 assists-44%-16 minutes

But that’s not as big of a deal as it is with everybody else. Nobody else has newcomers like this.

5. Iowa 14-4, 29-7

The Hawkeyes lose national Player of the Year Megan Gustafson. If you saw them last year, you know that everybody else was competent but not a lot more than that. And, they also lost 2 starting guards.

Guards Mackenzie Meyer (5-9, Sr., 9 ppg, 6 assists, 42%) and Kathleen Doyle (5-9, Sr., 12 ppg, 6 assists, 40%) will have to lead the way. It’s also time for the once-highly regarded Amanda Ollinger (6-1, Sr., F, 2 ppg, 47%) to step up. Minnesota Monika Czinano (6-3, Soph., C, 2 ppg, 55%) also figures to start.

Their line is 31 ppg-12 rebounds-15 assists-43%-20 minutes

6. Rutgers 13-5, 22-10

Rutgers loses a lot—4 players who played 116 minutes among them and scored 33 ppg—and they return 4 players who played 74 minutes and scored 26 ppg. And, they’re not as big as most of the teams listed above. 5-11 junior guard Arella Guarantes (12 ppg, 52%) will have to be huge.

Their line is 26 ppg-9 rebounds-5 assists-46%-15 minutes

The Have-Nots

1. Indiana 8-10, 21-13

If there’s a breakout, it will probably be the Hosers. They return guards Ali Patberg and Jaelynn Penn, both juniors , both 5-10, 5-11, who scored 30 between them with 9 boards and 6 assists while shooting 44% and 40%, respectively. Patberg was #3 in the conference in minutes. Breanna Wise (6-0, Sr., F, 12 ppg, 7 reb, 44%) is the top returnee inside. 

Their line is 62 ppg-27 rebounds-11 assists-41%-33 minutes

That’s a lot of experience but the shooting percentages and the 8-10 record say they’re not a shoo-in.

2. Michigan 11-7, 22-12

Last year was a breakout for the Wolverines but they lose Hallie Thome, Nicole Munger and Deja Church and their 31 ppg and a lot of ball-handling. But, they’re big, led by 6-2 sophomore forward Naz Hillmon (13 ppg-7 reb-63%) and 6-0 sophomore guard Amy Dilk (7 ppg-4 reb-3 asts, 39%). Still, they don’t look like an 11-7 team again.

Their line is 40 ppg-20 rebounds-8 assists-46%-21 minutes

3. Minnesota 9-9, 21-11

We’ll look at the Gophers separately, but this at least says they’re competitive though the shooting percentage is a worry.

Their line is 53 ppg-24 rebounds-10 assists-40%-31 minutes

4. Northwestern 9-9, 21-15

For the Wildcats, this, too, is almost a breakthrough, and they only lost one key player. 5-10 junior guard Lindsay Pulliam (16 ppg-4 reb-2 asts-37%) leads the way with running mate Veronica Burton (5-9, Soph., 10 ppg, 41%). 6-2 senior center Abi Scheid (9 ppg-4 4 reb-3 ast-38%) has been injury-prone and her numbers last year were not as strong as her sophomore year. So she’ll be key. But, overall, they’re a bad shooting team.

Their line is 56 ppg-20 rebounds-14 assists-38%-37 minutes

5. Nebraska 9-9, 14-16

They’ll be led by guards Hannah Whitish, 3 point-shooting specialist; Minnesotan Sam Haiby (10 ppg as a freshman); and Nicea Eriely, 6-1 defensive specialist. They’re a good shooting team, so anything can happen.

Their line is 59 ppg-21 rebounds-1 assists-46%

6. Wisconsin 4-14, 15-18

They could be improved if they can shake the injury bug, especially Minnesotans Courtney Frederickson and Carmen Backes. Backes is a redshirt freshman who has yet to play for the Badgers. I still say she’s got a world of upside. But Imani Lewis (6-1, Soph., F, 12 ppg, 8 reb, 43%) should be their best player. They lost nobody, except to injury.

Their line is 43 ppg-22 rebounds-6 assists-39%-25 minutes

7. Penn State 5-13, 12-18

New coach, Minnesotan Carolyn Kieger, will have her hands full this year, losing Teriya Page and Amari Carter and their 30 ppg. Alisa Smith (6-3, Jr., F, 9 ppg, 7 reb, 46%) is a horse and 5-9 guard Siyah Frasier (Sr., 10 ppg, 5 reb, 2 asts, 45%) is solid but, after that, it’s hard to say.

Their line is 42 ppg-23 rebounds-4 assists-41%-24 minutes

8. Illinois 2-16, 10-20

The Illini are bad, which is precisely why their win over the Gophers was such a blight on Lindsay Whalen’s 1^st season. Now, they lost their best player, Minnesotan Alex Wittinger, from a 2-16 team. Brandi Beasley (5-6, Sr., G, 12 ppg, 4 reb, 5 asts, 41%) is pretty much the show in Champagne. 

Their line is 35 ppg-16 rebounds-10 assists-42%-22 minutes

Big 10 Prediction

Combine the 2 lists and here’s what you get.

1. Maryland 17-1

2. Michigan State 14-4

3. Purdue 13-5

4. Indiana 12-6

5. Michigan 11-7

6. Ohio State 10-8

7. Minnesota 9-9

8. Iowa 8-10

9. Northwestern 8-10

10. Nebraska 8-10

11. Rutgers 7-11

12. Wisconsin 4-14

13. Penn State 3-15

14. Illinois 2-16

All-Big 10

Big—Taiye Bello, Minnesota, 6-2, Sr., 10 ppg, 12 reb, 53%

Big—Kaila Charles, Maryland, 6-1, Sr., 17 ppg, 7 reb, 49%

Wing—Stephanie Jones, Maryland, 6-2, Sr., 13 ppg, 6 reb, 59%

Point Guard—Ali Patberg, Indiana, 5-11, Jr., 16 ppg, 5 reb, 5 ast, 44%

Combo Guard—Karissa McLoughlin, Purdue, 5-7, Jr., 15 ppg, 3 reb, 4 ast, 40%

2^nd Team

Big—Naz Hillmon, Michigan, 6-2, Soph., 13 ppg, 7 reb, 63%

Big—Ae’Rianna Harris, Purdue, 6-1, Sr., 13 ppg, 9 reb, 49%

Point Guard—Kathleen Doyle, Iowa, 5-9, Sr., 12 ppg, 3 reb, 6 asts, 40%

Combo Guard—Taylor Mikshell, Maryland, 5-11, Soph., 13 ppg, 3 reb, 3 ast, 42%

Shooting Guard—Destiny Pitts, Minnesota, 5-10, Jr., 16 ppg, 4 reb, 42%

3^rd Team

Big—Kierstin Bell, Ohio State, Fr.

Big—Dorka Julasz, Ohio State, 6-4, Soph., 12 ppg, 9 reb, 46%

Wing—Imani Lewis,Wisconsin, 6-1, Soph., 12 ppg, 8 reb, 43%

Point Guard—Dominique Oden, Purdue, 5-8, Sr., 14 ppg, 4 reb, 3 ast, 43%

Shooting Guard—Lindsay Pulliam, Northwestern, 5-10, Jr., 16 ppg, 4 reb, 2 ast, 37%

4^th Team

Big—Abi Scheid, Northwestern, 6-2, Sr., 9 ppg, 4 reb, 3 ast, 38%

Big—Brenna Wise, Indiana, 6-0, Sr., 12 ppg, 7 reb, 44%

Point Guard—Nia Clouden, Michigan State, 5-8, Soph., 12 ppg, 4 reb, 4 ast, 44%

Combo Guard—Brandi Beasley, Illinois, 5-6, Sr., 12 ppg, 4 reb, 5 ast, 41%

Combo Guard—Arella Guarantes, Rutgers, 5-11, Jr., 12 ppg, 4 reb, 2 ast, 52%

2019-2020 Season Preview: Big Ten Men

All of the various pre-season rankings are virtually unanimous, at least at the top of the pack. Everybody has got Michigan State, Maryland, Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan in that order. Illinois and Wisconsin are next in one order or the other. After that it’s a bit of a jumble. So here are 2 questions.

1. Who among the top 5 is gonna slip? And, trust me, somebody will. Last year, Nebraska was picked anywhere from #2 to #4 in the Big Ten. They went 6-14 and finished 11^th. Bye-bye Tim Miles. And, Indiana was picked #3. Instead, the Hosers had a 1-12 streak and finished 9^th.

2. Who among the next 9 is going to surprise? Now, here I’ll say that it’s not a given that anybody is. But, if they did…?

Which of the Big 5 Will Slip?

Purdue. The Boilers suffered the one biggest loss of anybody with the graduation of guard Carson Edwards. Now, compared to that, Michigan lost even more—top 3 scorers, and coach John Beilien, who decided to put his name in the NBA draft. But, Michigan also has 3 pretty good players coming back including 2 experienced guards in senior PG Zavier Simpson and junior SG Isaiah Livers, plus big Jon Teske. Purdue gets guard Nojel Eastern back plus Matt Haarans. And, of course, Purdue has Coach of the Year Matt Painter and Michigan has the inexperienced Juwan Howard. Still, talent on the floor wins. Michigan edges Purdue for 4^th place.

Michigan State is a lock at #1, and Maryland almost the same at #2. Michigan will challenge Ohio State for the #3 spot. Those could be your 5 NCAA tournament entries, too, though I think, actually, 1 more will slip in.

Which of the Next 9 Will Surprise?

Illinois has the best talent but the Illini were just 12-21 last year. Wisconsin loses Ethan Happ but I know some smart people who thought he was terribly overrated. Penn State has Lamar Stevens back, and Iowa has Joe Weiskamp. 

But along with Happ, many of these teams also lost some top talent. Minnesota, for one; Iowa, for another; Rutgers and Northwestern, too. So I like Illinois at #6 and probably the last Big 10 entry into the NCAA tournament.

Big 10 Prediction

1. Michigan State 18-2

2. Maryland 16-4

3. Michigan 15-5

4. Ohio State 13-7

5. Purdue 13-7

6. Illinois 12-8

7. Wisconsin 10-10

8. Minnesota 9-11

9. Iowa 9-11

10. Penn State 8-12

11. Indiana 7-11

12. Rutgers 4-16

13. Nebraska 4-16

14. Northwestern 2-18

All-Big 10

As I’ve said before, an all-star team consists of 5 players that you might actually put on the floor—that is, 1 or 2 bigs with all those studs at the “1.” Cassius Winston is the pre-season Player of the Year.

Big—Jalen Smith, Maryland, 6-10, Soph., 12 ppg, 7 reb, 49% shooter

Big—Lamar Stevens, Penn State, 6-8, Sr., 20 ppg, 8 reb, 2 asts, 42% shooter

Point Guard—Cassius Winston, Michigan State, 6-1, Sr., 19 ppg, 3 reb, 7 asts, 47% 

Combo Guard—Anthony Cowan, Maryland, 6-0, Sr., 16 ppg, 4 asts, 39% shooter

Shooting Guard—Ayo Dosunmo, Illinois, 6-5, Soph., 14 ppg, 4 reb, 3 asts, 44% shooter

2^nd Team

Big—Daniel Oturu, Minnesota, 6-10, Soph., 11 ppg, 7 reb, 55% shooter

Big—Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State, 6-9, Jr., 15 ppg, 7 reb, 2 asts, 50% shooter

Wing—Xavier Tillman, Michigan State, 6-8, Jr., 10 ppg, 7 reb, 2 blk, 60% shooter

Point Guard—Zavier Simpson, Michigan, 6-0, Sr., 9 ppg, 6 reb, 7 asts, 43% shooter

Shooting Guard—Nojel Eastern, Purdue, 6-6, Jr., 7 ppg, 5 reb, 2 asts, 49% shooter

3^rd Team

Big—Jon Teske, Michigan, 7-1, Sr., 9 ppg, 7 reb, 52% shooter

Big—Luka Garza, Iowa, 6-11, Jr., 13 ppg, 4 reb, 53% shooter

Point Guard—D.J. Carton, Ohio State, 6-1, Fr.

Shooting Guard—Joshua Langford, Michigan State, 6-5, Sr., 15 ppg, 2 reb, 2 ast, 44%

Shooting Guard—Joe Weiskamp, Iowa, 6-5, Soph., 11 ppg, 5 reb, 49% shooter

2019-2020 Season Preview: NCAA Men's Basketball

OK, my first step was to look at several pre-season top 25s and to compile a composite ranking. I’m not going to list the teams right here, lest you mistake it for my list. Both lists come a little later. But, suffice it to say that the Final Four and the national champions are probably going to come from this list.

As I see it, the (oh, screw it) Final Four and the national championship will, in the end, be the team that has:

1. The best point guard…

2. Assuming that he’s got somebody to dish off to—that is, somebody who can shoot…

3. And, assuming he’s surrounded by people who have the athleticism and motivation to defend like crazy.

Those are the 3 essential ingredients for success nowadays at every level but I think that it especially describes college men. So, from my list of potential top 25 teams…

Who Has the Best Point Guard?

1. Michigan State

Cassius Winston has it all—experience (he’s a senior), he dishes it (7 assists last year), he shoots it (19 ppg on 47%), but he’s a pass-first guy who involves his teammates. Well, he has it all except size. At 6-1, he’s not regarded as a great NBA prospect. And maybe speed, though he’s got good quickness. But, whatever issues he’s got, he is still the consensus pre-season Player of the Year.

2. Marquette

If Winston’s not the Player of the Year, it will probably be Marquette’s senior Markus Howard. He’s even smaller than Winston and, well, he’s listed as a “1” but plays more like a combo guard, scoring 25 ppg on 45% shooting with 4 assists. He might be a better “player” than Winston, but he’s not a better “1” and, at 5-11, he’s not a better NBA prospect. But this is not the NBA, thank goodness.

3. Kansas

The Jayhawks bring back sophomore Devon Dotson. He’s 6-2, he averaged 3 dishes last year, he scored 12 on 48% shooting. 

4. Kentucky

The thing about Kentucky is that they’ve got 2 point guards, and I don’t mean that they don’t have a point guard. I mean, they have 2. One is 6-3 sophomore Ashton Hagans, who averaged 8 ppg on 47% shooting, 4 assists and 2 steals as a freshman. The other is a freshman, Tyrese Maxey, also 6-3. So, if everybody’s starting “1” went down with an injury, then Kentucky would have the best point guard in the land. Both will start, it just remains to be seen who’s the 1 and who’s the 2 or if they share duties. I think, howevber, that you keep Hagans at the 1 because he’s the better passer, regardless of who’s the better shooter.

5. Duke

6-3 sophomore Tre Jones returns for Duke. He scored 9 last year on just 41% shooting, but averaged 5 assists and 2 steals. He’s not the offensive threat that some might be, but he is one of the best ball defenders and will slow down even the best. 

6. North Carolina

The Tar Heels bring in 6-3 freshman Cole Anthony. This might be too low but it remains to be seen if he’s a true “1” or not. 

7. Seton Hall

Here again, the question is whether Myles Powell is a “1.” Well, really, he’s not. It’s just that he’ll handle the ball a lot for Seton Hall. Of course, he’ll shoot it a lot (25 ppg on 45% shooting last year), too. He’s a 6-2 junior. That’s the great thing about college ball. All these 5-11, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2 guards can dominate, and they do dominate. But, at Seton Hall, the problem is that Powell can’t pass himself the ball.

8. Maryland

The Terps have 6-0 junior Anthony Cowan. He averaged 4 dishes last year and 16 ppg but on just 39% shooting.

9. Villanova

Junior Collin Gillespie leads the way.

10. Colorado

McKinley Wright is the man in Boulder.

11. Baylor

The Bears feature Devonte Bandoo.

12. Ohio State

This might be a little bit of a stretch, but the Buckeyes will depend on freshman D.J. Carton at a position where experience is particularly valuable. Still, the upside is there.

Which “1” Has the Best Shooters to Feed?

1. Michigan State

Forward Xavier Tillman, a junior, shoots 60%, while senior shooting guard Joshua Langford shoots 45%. The experience and the shooting ability make the Spartans a very, very tough out.

2. Kansas

7-footer Udoka Azubuike, a senior, shoots 70%. 6-9 Silvio De Sousa sat out most of last year after getting caught up in the ongoing recruiting scandal (an Adidas consultant said that De Sousa’s guardian had received more than $60,000 to steer him to another college), but Kansas appealed and De Souza is now eligible to play in 2019-2020. 

3. Louisville

Louisville is led by 6-8 junior forward Jordan Nwora who scored 17 ppg last year while shooting 45%. He joins Winston and Tre Jones among the players we’ve mentioned so far who are widely regarded as pre-season all-Americans. 6-11 Malik Williams is also a load. But, the ball-handlers for the Cardinals will be largely newcomers.

4. Kentucky

The Wildcats, as always, have a recruiting class that is ranked somewhere from #2 to #4. There’s gotta be some scorers in there somewhere.

5. Florida

6-10 Kerry Blackshear spent 3 years at Virginia Tech but has transferred to Florida for his final year of college ball. He went 15-7-2 with 57% shooting in his most recent season. The Gators will also feature 6-5 freshman Scottie Lewis.

6. Duke 

Duke lost as much or more talent from last year as anybody, including Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish. But, they, too, have a recruiting class ranked from #2 to #4. Tre Jones returns at the point guard, but the frontcourt (and most of the scoring) could be provided by freshmen including Matthew Hurt of Rochester John Marshall.

7. Memphis

7-0 freshman James Wiseman is the #1 freshman in the high school class of 2019. He was 26-15-5 in his final year of high school.

8. Cincinnati

Jarrod Cumberland is a 6-5 senior shooting guard who went 19-4-4 last year, but only shot 40%.

9. Virginia

Virginia lost its top 3 players but returns 6-9 Mamadi Diakite (6 ppg, 55% shooting) and shooting guard Braxton Key (8 ppg, 43%).

10. Maryland

Maryland will be big. Its top scoring threats, along with point guard Cowan, would appear to be 6-10 sophomore Jalen Smith (12 ppg, 49%) and 7-0 freshman Chol Marial.

11. Gonzaga

Gonzaga will be huge with 3 foreign players from 6-10 and up and a 4^th at 6-6. The latter, freshman Martynas Arlauskas, from Lithuania, looks to be the best of them. Killian Tillie, a Frenchman, and Filip Petrusev, a Serb, return from last year when the 2 of them combined for 14 ppg on 55% shooting.

12. Arizona

Let’s just say that the Wildcats recruiting class is rated #2 through #5 by the major recruiting experts. One is a point guard, the other 3 are 6-6, 6-10 and 6-11.

ALERT: This Is My Actual Prediction, Right Here, Right Now!

OK, I said that a kamikaze defense is the 3^rd ingredient but I’m not going to expound about it. I’ll be using it as a factor in the predictions though.

The Final Four, or the One Percent

1. Michigan State. Loaded.

2. Kansas

3. Kentucky

4. Duke. Could be in any order, but Kansas has considerably more experience and so they go first.

The Elite Eight

5. Maryland. The 5^th and final team to rank in the top 12 at the “1” and among the shooters.

6. Villanova. Could get overpowered by the big boys, but they’ll be quick and fun to watch.

7. North Carolina. Assuming Cole Anthony is the real deal.

8. Louisville. Unproven at the “1” spot.

Sweet Sixteen

9. Florida.

10. Gonzaga. Nobody is going to ask, “Where’s the beef?” but they might wanna know “Where’s the fluffy bun?”

11. Marquette. Is the supporting cast good enough?

12. Arizona. Great recruiting class, not sure the veteran talent is there, I mean, in terms of a Final Four.

13. Virginia. Is point guard Kehei Clark ready for primetime?

14. Seton Hall. Is the supporting cast good enough?

15. Memphis. #1 recruiting class but expectations from their veterans are not that high.

16. St. Mary’s. Could knock of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference.

Dark Horses

17. Texas Tech. Some have them in the top 10. I don’t see it.

18. Oregon. Lots of new faces. Lots of upside. But prove it.

19. Xavier. Will be good, but how good?

20. Auburn. Like most successful teams, almost everybody turned pro.

21. Utah State. Great 1-2 punch at their level, but I don’t know about beating the big guys.

22. Baylor. Lots of upside, but prove it.

23. Washington. One of the top freshmen, but I don’t think there’s Sweet Sixteen type talent otherwise.

24. Ohio State. This might be a stretch. Then again, it might not. 

25. Michigan. This might be a stretch. Then again, it might not. They’re deep but might be lacking at the go-to position.

All-America

I’m old-fashioned. An all-America team is 5 guys that you could actually put out on the floor together. Obviously, you’d like a real “3” on these teams, but who exactly would that be? The best athletes out there top out at 6-3. That’s just the way it is.

Center—James Wiseman, Memphis, 7-0, Fr.

Forward—Jordan Nwora, Louisville, 6-8, Jr., 17 ppg-6 reb-45%

Point Guard—Cassius Winston, Michigan State, 6-1, Sr., 19 ppg-7 assists-47%

Off-Guard—Markus Howard, Marquette, 5-11, Sr., 25 ppg-4 reb-4 assists-45%

Off-Guard—Tre Jones, Duke, 6-3, Soph., 9 ppg-4 reb-5 assists-2 steals-41%

2^nd Team

Center—Udoka Azubuike, Kansas, 7-0, Sr.

Forward—Kerry Blackshear, Florida, 6-10, Sr., 15 ppg-7 reb-57%

Point Guard—Devon Dotson, Kansas, 6-2, Soph., 12 ppg-4 reb-3 assists-48%

Off-Guard—Myles Powell, Seton Hall, 6-2, Jr., 22 ppg

Off-Guard—Cole Anthony, North Carolina, 6-3, Fr.

Next Up—The Big 10. After that, the Minnesota Gophers. 

2019-2020 Preview: A Step Forward for the Timberwolves?

A Step Forward for the Timberwolves? 

The Minnesota Timberwolves, as you probably know, increased their wins from 16 to 29 to 31 to 47 from 2015 to 2018. This was a pretty good mirror of the Wolves 2010 to 2014 seasons, when they increased from 15 to 17 to 26 to 31 to 40 wins except, of course, that the earlier resurgence continued for 5 years, this one for 4. 

Rebuild 3.0

The earlier resurgence was necessary after the departure of coach Kevin McHale and point guard Randy Foye after a dreadful 24-58 season in 2010. But, if you thought that was dreadful, I don’t even have a word for 2011 and 2012 when the Wolves won a combined 32 games with 132 losses under coach Kurt Rambis and GM David Kahn. Kevin Love, Jonny Flynn, Ricky Rubio, Michael Beasley and Wesley Johnson all came on board during this period, and Love and Rubio, at least, lasted into the resurgence. Flynn and Johnson, in particular, came to connote the utter ineptitude of Kahn as a talent evaluator who passed over Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George, Kemba Walker and Kawhi Leonard, among others, in order to get Flynn and Johnson (and Rubio and Derrick Williams) into T-Wolves jersies.

Rick Adelman replaced Rambis for 2 years of decent progress, mostly notable for Love’s emergence as an all-pro caliber player and, yes, for Adelman’s competent coaching. Nikola Pekovic came on board as Beasley flamed out, and then Pekovic flamed out with a series of injuries, playing just 271 games in 6 years. The 5^th and final year of the resurgence was 2014 when the Wolves went 40-42, still missing the playoffs by 9 games. But, then, Love bailed, and it was time for another rebuild. 

Rebuild 4.0

In case you’re wondering, by the way, Rebuild 1.0 came way back in 1991 when the original owners, Harv and Marv, and their president, Bob Stein, the son-in-law of I forget which of them and, oh, yeah, by the way, a football guy, decided that hiring Bill Musselman in 1989 had been a mistake. Everybody knew from his days as the Gopher coach, of course, that Musselman was an asshole. But, that’s not why they fired him. They fired him because he won too many games. In those days, you were supposed to be grateful to get an expansion franchise. Players who could walk and chew gum at the same time, not so much. But, with a truly horrifyingly terrible roster, Musselman did what Musselman did. He outcoached everybody and won 22 and then 29 games. And, so, obviously, he had to go. He wasn’t building for the future, they said. In other words, he wasn’t tanking so that the Wolves could get a #1 draft choice. He was winning games. It pretty obviously never occurred to Harv and Marv and Bob that the way you building a WINNING tradition is by WINNING, not by LOSING. Duh! So, anyway, they fired Muss and they achieved their goal in spades. They lost games by the bushel basket. They won 75 games and lost 253 over the next 4 years before finally achieving the other goal, of getting a serviceable draft choice with which they took Kevin Garnett in 2005.

But the curse of Harv and Marv followed the team long after they had sold it to Glen Taylor and long after Garnett had come along to attempt to save the franchise from itself. 

By that we mean to say that the Wolves had one of the NBA’s best players for 12 years and in those 12 years—well, OK, they made it to the playoffs 8 times. But with 12 years of Kevin Garnett, only once, in 2004, did they ever win so much as a playoff series. And that remains the one and only season in which the T-Wolves have ever won a playoff series to this day, 30 years later.

A big part of that was the loss of draft picks for several years because of the signing of Joe Smith in 2000. The Smith contact, you see, was a little secret between Smith and T-Wolves owner Glen Taylor, who paid Smith more than the T-Wolves were allowed to pay under the league’s salary cap. Taylor was suspended from any contact with the team for a year, the stiffest penalty that any NBA owner had ever received and, again, the T-Wolves were stripped of their draft picks for several years. Unable to surround Garnett with a good young nucleus of players, well, the T-Wolves for all intents and purposes squandered the Garnett years. And, so, then came Rebuild 2.0.

So, then you’ve read about Rebuild 3.0. Then came Rebuild 4.0. The question before us today is whether the 2019-2020 season for the Timberwolves will represent Rebuild 5.0, or just Rebuild 4.1. We certainly hope the latter, but we fear perhaps the former.

In any event, Rebuild 4.0 started with the hiring of Flip Saunders in 2014 (for the 2014-2015 season). Kevin Love was gone, and Pekovic was gone though we didn’t know it at the time. Garnett returned for a cameo and, more to the point, guards Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine were on board. But the T-Wolves dropped from 40 wins to just 16.

But, this Rebuild was more rapid than 3.0, as the wins almost doubled to 29 in 2016. Karl-Anthony Townes now came on board, and he and Wiggins and LaVine combined for 53 ppg. But, the big change that year was the hiring of Sam Mitchell as coach after Saunders’ untimely death.

The next year Tom Thibodeau came on as coach and GM. He would be the experienced basketball man that the T-Wolves had been searching for for, oh, about 27 years, to take charge and lead the T-Wolves to the promised land. The wins increased only to 31 but Townes, Wiggins and LaVine scored 68 ppg among them.

In 2018 the T-Wolves really appeared to have resurged. In February they had something like the 4^th spot in the west, but a late slump dropped them all the way to 8^th, so they had to play the #1 seeded Houston Rockets and, of course, they lost. Still, 47 wins was their best in more than a decade. The promised land was just around the next corner.

Then, of course, came the Jimmy Butler saga. Well, in fairness, the Butler saga includes those 47 wins in 2018. Butler scored 22 ppg, Towns 21 and Wiggins 18, and Thobodeau’s acquisitions at the point guard and the power forward, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, added 14 and 12. Thibodeau was indeed a miracle man!

But no man can create any miracles based on Jimmy Butler that Butler cannot tear down, and Butler tore down the T-Wolves with remarkable speed. You probably know the story, but in any event, the wins dropped from 47 to 31, the playoffs were way out of reach, and Thibodeau went down the drain of history. Hey, thanks, Jimmy! Been good to know ya! 

Rebuild 4.1 or 5.0?

And that brings us up to date in the Timberwolves history of Rebuilds. So, where does 2020 fit into all of this? Well, it’s too soon to tell.

The best case scenario is that 2020 will see a mini-rebuild, that the T-Wolves of 2018 are alive and well with Townes and Wiggins and Teague still in charge, and still capable of making a playoff run. The fact that coach Ryan Saunders replaced Thibodeau last year and not in the off-season also plays into the mini-rebuild scenario. 

The worst case is that 2020 looks more like 2019 than 2018, and that Rebuild 5.0 will indeed kick in in earnest in 2021 or even before 2020 is over. 

Rebuild 5.0

OK, here, I’ll say it. I fear for the worst. Rebuild 5.0seems the more likely scenario. The problem is that of the three legs of a possible playoff-run stool, 2 of them are looking pretty rickety. 24 year old post Karl Anthony Towns is the only asset the Timberwolves have today that looks like playoff material.

You know about Andrew Wiggins. His offensive efficiency last year was among the worst in the entire NBA. His mid-range game is very poorly suited to the modern game, which is to shoot 3s and layups. NBA players shoot almost 40% on 3s, which means they score 1.2 points per shot. When defensives stretch out to defend the 3, cutters break open in the lane for open layups, of which they make 60%, or 1.2 points per shot. NBA players, meanwhile, make around 48% of their mid-range jump shots, give or take, depending on the distance, which figures out to 0.96 points per shot. Wiggins shot 44% last year, good for 0.88 points per shot. Not only that, but because he’s shooting mostly 15 foot+ jump shots, he doesn’t get to the line. He shot 7 FT per game in his 2^nd year in the league. Last year about 4. 

Word is the Wolves tried to move Wiggins during the off-season but his contract is exactly the inverse of his productivity, which is to say, Huge. So, he ain’t goin’ nowhere, not even in a salary dump. So, obviously, the Wolves and coach Ryan Saunders are going to try to retool or, dare I say, rebuild his offensive game around 3s and cuts and cut it out with those useless mid-range 2s. 

Then there’s Jeff Teague. He’s been a pretty good NBA 1. For his career, 13 points, 6 assists, 2 turnovers, 47% on 2s, 36% on 3s, 84% on FT. And last year he had a career high of 8 assists, though an 8 year low with 12 ppg. But more to the point, he is 31 years old and last year his shooting percentages were at those 8 year lows and he played half the schedule due to injuries. And, this year, the Wolves won’t have a better point guard to replace him.

Teague has one more year on his contract, so the Wolves hung on to him as much to set up a 2020 salary dump as anything. Meanwhile Tyus Jones was let go (to Teague’s old team, the Atlanta Hawks) because his contract was up and the Wolves wanted to bank his value for next year. If they signed him now, it would hamper their ability to go after a bigger fish next year. But, while Tyus isn’t much of a scorer, his assist to turnover ratio is off the charts and there are plenty of knowledgeable people who thought the Wolves were better with Tyus on the court than with Teague.

So, as we said, Karl Anthony-Towns is the only real asset that the Timberwolves have. That sounds more like 5.0 to me than 4.1. Here is the probable opening day starting lineup.

Center—Towns 7-0, 24 years, 24 ppg last year, 54% FG% last year

Power Forward—Robert Covington, 6-9, 29 years, 14 ppg, 43%

Small Forward—Andrew Wiggins, 6-8, 24 years, 18 ppg, 41%

Point Guard—Jeff Teague, 6-2, 31 years, 12 ppg, 42%

Shooting Guard—Josh Okogie, 6-4, 21 years, 8 ppg, 39%

Or Jarrett Culver, 6-7, 20 years, rookie, 18 ppg, 46% last year at Texas Tech

If Teague gets hurt, the backup point guard is probably Shabazz Napier, 6-1, 28 years, who scored 9 ppg last year with Brooklyn on 39% shooting with 2.6 assists.

The frontcourt at least has some depth with Gorgui Dieng and Noah Vonleh and Keita Bates-Diop and Jake Layman and Jordan Bell, but whether any of them is better than just “depth” remains to be seen.

As a matter of actual fact, this roster seems to have taken a step backward from last year with the loss of Tyus Jones and Dario Saric. The deeper you dig, the more this looks like 5.0. The only real wild card is that Culver steps in a plays like a veteran from the get-go, shooting the same 46% and scoring the same 18 ppg he scored last year in college. 

In my NBA preview I pegged the Wolves at 36-46, same as last year. But, if the roster has taken a step back, then 36 wins is probably a little bit optimistic or maybe a lot optimistic. Anywhere from 26 to 36 is possible, but not more.

Roster Comparison

Pos.	2018 (36 wins)	2019 (and 2018 stats)	Comment
C	Towns 2,500 min 24 ppg (52% FG)	Towns	I don’t see how he can play a lot better than he already is. 0 in terms of expected improvement.
PF	Gibson 1,700 and 11 ppg (57%)	Covington 700 and 14 (43%)	Wolves lose size and shooting, may gain some athleticism if Cov is healthy. 0
SF	Wiggins 2,500 and 18 (41%)	Wiggins	Has to get better. +
PF	Teague 1,300 and 12 (42%)	Teague	Probably same player, hopefully more minutes. 0
SG	Okogie 1,800 and 8 (39%)	Okogie	Might not start again, will play 1,800 minutes again, should be better. +
Starting lineup will be similar in caliber to last year (2 +s but they're small +s), but smaller. But, other than Towns, look at those shooting percentages. Ouch.
C	Dieng 1,000 and 6 (50%)	Dieng	No change. 0
PF	Saric 1,600 and 10.5 (45%) Tolliver 1,100 and 5 (38%)	Jordan Bell 800 and 3 (57%)	Will miss Saric. -
SF	Covington  Diop 500 and 5 (42%)	Diop Jake Layman 1,300 and 8 (51%) Noah Vonleh 1,700 and 8 (47%)	Layman and/or Vonleh could push Wiggins to the SG and Okogie to the bench; still, with Cov moving into starting lineup position overall not improved. + only in that Cov only played 700 minutes.
PG	T. Jones 1,600 and 7 (41%) Rose 1,400 and 18 (48%) Bayless 700 and 6 (36%)	Napier 1,000 and 9 (39%) Tyrone Wallace 600 and 3 (42%)	Nowhere near the talent to back up Teague, unless Culver is ready to play NBA PG, which is doubtful. -
SG		Jarrett Culver 1,000 and 18 (46%) (in college) Treveon Graham 700 and 5 (33%)	If both Wiggins and Okogie play the SG, then depth not a problem. If one or both are at the SF, then SG depth a problem. +
Could see a small increase is shooting percentage, maybe. Bottom line, lose Saric and Covington and 3 PG off the bench and gain a rookie and 3 maybes?  Starting lineup might be a tiny bit better. Bench will not be as good unless Culver is all-rookie.