Twins 2021--Worst Ever?

OK, first of all, I don't usually write about baseball. And, secondly, having asked myself, is this the worst Twins team ever, I have to say that with a little bit of research I can safely say that, no, it's not. That's not to say that it couldn't become the worst ever. Not only that but (SPOILER ALERT), the Twins bullpen is now 1-12 and projects out to a 7-30 record for the full season. This would have to represent a very powerful indictment of the people who represent themselves as the Twins "brain" trust. 

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The worst Twins team ever was, in my view, the 2013 team and after 36 games, they were 18-18. Nobody was asking if they were the worst Twins team ever at that stage. But they went 48-78 after that. Among all of the Twins teams that played below .400 or had a pythagorean W-L under .400, that was the worst record ever after 36 games.

Here are the candidates:

1982 60-102, .370 with a pythag of .401, so based on runs for and against, they were a bit unlucky. They were outscored by approximately 1.0 runs per game 5.0 to 4.0. They started 11-25 and finished 49-77, just one game better than that 2013 team. So they started unlucky and they stayed unlucky. But, let's be honest. If they had finished at .401 (65-97), well, you'd have to say they were unlucky...and bad.

1995 56-88, .389 with a pythag of .394, so they got about what they deserved. They were outscored by an appalling 1.3 runs per game, 6.2 to 4.9. They played 144 games due to a late start due to the work stoppage that killed the 1994 World Series. They started 11-25 and finished 45-63, a not quite respectable .417. So I would say that they can't be the worst because at least they improved over the course of the year.

2011 63-99, .389 with a pythag of .383, so they actually won a game or two more than they should have with their run differential of 5.0 to 3.8. They started 12-24 and finished a not quite respectable 51-73 (.411), so they improved a little bit but not enough for that to become an excuse like the 1995 crew.

2013 66-96, .407 with a pythag of .388, so they won several more games than they deserved with a run differential of 4.9-3.8. They started 18-18, as noted, and finished 48-78, a horrific .373. 

2016 59-103, .364. This was their worst ever W-L pct. but their pythag of .406 was better than 1995, 2011 and 2013. They were outscored 5.5 to 4.5. Their 36-game start was the worst ever at 10-26 (.278). After that they were 49-77 (.389), just one game better than 2013. If 2013 wasn't their worst team ever, then 2016 was, and if neither 2013 nor 2016 was, then it had to be, ah, well, it's close, but I'll take 1982.

Oh, and of course, 2021. They started 12-24, then of course came from behind as Miguel Sano hit his monthly HR for a come-from-behind 5-4 win. But all the analysis was done this morning and at that time they were 12-24, so they've been worse four times, in 1981, 1982, 1995 and 2016. But, get this. Their pythag is .448, which would translate to 16-20, which sounds a hell of a lot better than 12-24. But, if their bullpen continues to stink up the American League and the Twins remain winless in extra inning games, well, then, a pythag of .448 will continue to deliver one win every three days. So, given the particular weaknesses the Twins have shown, the pythag is not as much of a comfort as a Miguel Sano HR. What's even better than a Miguel Sano HR is a hit, any kind of hit, with RISP which has been almost as much of a problem as blown saves.

So, for the sake of argument, let's say the 2013 Twins were their worst team ever, and let's compare them with 2021 as a way of thinking about how the 2021 bunch is likely to do the rest of the way.

Offense

Catcher--Joe Mauer (2013) vs. Mitch Garver (2021). It's closer than you might think. Mauer missed a lot of games and finished 11-47-.324. If Garver keeps on hitting at his current pace, he would finish at 27-58-.200. Crappy BA and OBA, better power. Still, Mauer was better. Advantage 2013.

1B--Justin Morneau vs. Miguel Sano. Morneau also missed a ton of games and finished 17-74-.259. But Sano has become a historically terrible hitter despite today's tater. At his current rate, he'll finish 9-22--.119, Ouch ouch ouch. Advantage Morneau and 2013.

2B--Brian Dozier vs. Jorge Polanco. Dozier was an average ML hitter at 18-66-.244. Polanco right now is above average with a projection of 13-72-.244. Very small advantage 2021.

SS--Pedro Florimon vs. Andrelton Simmons. Big advantage Simmons and 2021. Say no more, say no more.

3B--Trevor Plouffe vs. Josh Donaldson. Plouffe was slightly below average at 14-52-.254. Donaldson is still well above average when he's healthy. Advantage 2021.

LF--Josh Willingham vs. Jake Cave. Willingham was just slightly below average despite a .208 BA. Cave is way below average with a projection of 4-9-.167. I mean, an OF who has been an almost-regular. 4-9-.167. Advantage 2013.

CF--Aaron Hicks vs. Byron Buxton. Hicks was terrible at this stage (age 23). Buxton, well, it just remains to be a question of staying in the lineup. Even how he projects at 40-76-.370 with an OPS+ way on the high side of 200. Huge advantage 2021 when Buxton gets back. Until then, well, even with Buxton out the Twins have better options than Hicks, just not Jake Cave.

RF--Chris Parmelee vs. Max Kepler. Parmelee was well below average. Kepler remains about average despite his .207 batting average. Advantage 2021.

DH--Ryan Doumet vs. Nelson Cruz. Doumit was an average hitter, Cruz remains way above average and will drive in almost twice as many runs as the 2013 DH. Advantage 2021.

Bench--Oswaldo Arcia and a bunch of nothin' vs. Luis Arraez, Willians Astudillo, Kyle Garlick, Alex Kiriloff and, well, a bunch of unprovens. Still that's a huge advantage for the 2021 crew. Granted there have been some injuries, but I'd suggest that every single at bat taken by Jake Cave should have gone to one of these four guys.

Offense Summary--so the 2013 Twins had an OPS of 90, the 2021 Twins are at 111, still above average despite two or more utter and complete black holes in the lineup every night. But, yes, we've kind of focused on OPS here, so let's add that the 2013 Twins were 13th in the AL in runs scored, the 2021 Twins 8th in runs scored. 

So, frankly, the Twins offense still looks OK with a couple of caveats. 1) They get a little bit lucky in timing their hits, that is, a few more come with RISP, which is after all likely. 2) Every Cave and Sano at bat possible goes instead to Arraez, Astudillo, Garlick or Kiriloff, which seems highly unlikely. 3) Donaldson stays healthy, which seems unlikely. With a little luck they should be able to increase their 4.1 runs per game so far and get into the top one-third of AL offenses.

Pitching

2013 was horrible. Starting pitching was the cause of their terribleness. Well, that and Hicks and Parmelee and the bench. It is hard to believe this was just eight years ago. Who were these guys? I barely remember a one of them. Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno and Pedro Hernandez were 31-50 with an ERA of approximately 5.09. As a team the Twins were 14th in ERA+ and 14th in runs allowed and earned runs allowed.

And don't blame the bullpen. Glen Perkins was 2-0 with 36 saves, a 2.30 ERA and a 178 ERA+. Believe it or not, Jared Burton, Josh Roenicke, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Ryan Pressley and Caleb Thielbar were 25-21 with an ERA of 3.35.

The 2021 Twins are of course a Bizarro version of the 2013s. The starting pitching is passable, well, barely. Jose Berrios, Michael Pinieda, Matt Shoemaker, Kenta Maeda and J.A. Happ project out to a total record of 49-49 with an ERA of 4.44. Well, OK, that's just a little more than half a run a game better, but of course the percent of inherited runs that have scored against the Twins bullpen has been historically astronomical. I remember it was 60 percent a few days ago. I mean, that's unheard of. So 49-49 is a lot better than 31-50 and the Twins are fairly well positioned in starting pitching, though Shoemaker is an obvious problem. Lewis Thorpe has shown some potential but beyond that, there is nobody lined up to move into the rotation. So maybe 49-49 is as good as it gets.

Especially if the bullpen doesn't get its act together. Taylor Rogers, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala and a whole bunch of woefully underperforming pitchers right now project out to an astonishing four wins and 54 losses. Think about that. They're already 1-12. There's not a snow ball's chance in hell they get to .500. If they double their wins and cut their losses in half the rest of the way they're still 7-30. That's not an unreasonable expectation right now. Now 49-49 plus 7-30 doesn't quite get you to 162, but it does get you to 56-79 for a .414 W-L or 67-95. 

So, 67-95, but, now, that's based on the pitching. If the offense does indeed improve (i.e. get lucky), the Twins could be a little better than that, let's say 5 games, or 72-90. That's better than 18 Twins teams over the years. The 2013 team got worse after 36 games. The 2021 Twins seem destined to get a little bit better despite their obvious problems. So, worst ever? Probably not. But a 7-30 bullpen should tell you everything you need to know about the Twins current management.

Top 10 Performers Boys 2021 State Tournament

 We lied. Here are the top 15 performers, and we're going to try to get 5 guys at the traditional positions--a center, 2 forwards and 2 guards.

Top 5

Center--Chet Holmgren, Minnehaha, 7-1, senior, Overall Tournament MVP

You'd have to say that Holmgren is the guy who catches your eye. If Minnehaha had been in a couple of close games, he could easily have scored another 20 points or so. And, yet, as it is, he led the top 3 classes in scoring with 64 points. But of course Minnehaha was not in a couple of close games because nobody could even think about scoring against the RedHawks with Holmgren patrolling the paint. Apparently they didn't bother to chart blocked shots because the Hub shows him with 2 or 3 blocks. 2 or 3 per half is more like it. He had to have blocked a dozen, maybe 15 shots and intimidated another 30 or 40. 

You wonder if his body is going to hold up against the rigors of major college ball. His dad had to abandon basketball at the U of M when his knees gave out. We hope all goes well. But, at this level, very few players have ever dominated games as totally as Chet Holmgren.

Forward--Camden Heide, Wayzsta, 6-6, junior

Heide is rated as the #3 junior in the state. He does a little bit of everything, combining strength and mobility.

Forward--Hercy Miller, Minnehaha, 6-3, senior

Love the motor. A relentless attacker on both sides of the ball with the strength and quickness and skills do do a lot of damage.

Point Guard--Tre Holloman, Cretin, 6-3, junior

Holloman is rated as the #1 junior. Honestly, he's got a ways to go in terms of the motor and the willingness to just attack, attack, attack, like less athletic players like Wayzata's guards. And his decisions with the ball have room to grow, but of course he didn't have the supporting cast that Wayzata guards have to share the ball with. Bottom line, the raw athleticism is obvious.

Shooting Guard--Austin Klug, Caledonia, 6-5, senior

Klug was the big surprise player of the tournament, overshadowed beforehand by the man who wasn't there, or wasn't playing. Eli King was Caledonia's best player and he was hurt. Austin who? Well, it is hard to believe King is better than Klug. He's as quick as any 6-footer and as strong as the 6-8 guys. Well, it turns out that he's a cousin to the Kings and is regarded as a baseball prospect. I would take my chances with Austin Klug in D1 basketball if he were inclined to give it a go.

2nd Team

Center--Francis Nwaokorie, Champlin Park, 6-7, senior

The best player among the first round losers, a shame we didn't get to see him on TV. Not his fault that Champlin Park was beaten for the first time in the first round as he scored 31 points against Maple Grove.

Power Forward--Matt Thompson, Hancock, 6-7, junior

Granted, here's another guy who needs a little more motor to play above Class A. But the body, the athleticism, the mobility, the footwork and shooting and other skills are all in place, and he's a junior. Sky's the limit.

Small Forward--Ethan Slaathaug, Hayfield, 6-3, senior

Gotta love the way he attacks the basket, though it's true that at the next level--or even in Class AA--he would have difficulty getting to the rim dribbling the ball as far away from his body as he often does. Still, he's got a big motor and he's just gung-ho to attack, and that is what won his team a state title.

Combo Guard--Ryan Dufault, Waseca, 6-0, senior

After Holmgren and along with Slaathaug, Dufault did more to win a championship for his team than anybody. In the semis, he scored 13 with 7 assists. Against Caledonia, his teammates were having trouble scoring, so he went ahead and scored 23, out-maneuvering 3 Caledonia defenders to make the game-winning shot.

Combo Guard--Eddie Beeninga, Wayzata, 6-1, senior

Another relentless, attacking player who makes life miserable for his opponents on both sides of the ball. Nicely skilled.

3rd Team

Center--Chance Fazio, Fergus Falls, 7-0, senior

Fazio was another eye-opener, a guy I knew almost nothing about. He may be an inch shorter than Holmgren, give or take, but he's probably got 100 pounds on him. As you'd expect, he was a late bloomer, especially because he played hockey through 9th grade. He's got surprising mobility and quickness in short bursts, good hands, OK footwork and a ton up upside. 

Power Forward--Andrew Morgan, Waseca, 6-9, senior

Had an OK tournament though he didn't show a lot of motor against Caledonia. Still he tied Dufault for the lead in AA scoring at 59 and had 19 boards and 5 blocks in the 2 TV games. 

Forward--Cade Haskins, DeLaSalle, 6-6, senior

Despite his 6-6 size, he's a perimeter guy and, in fact, one of the best long-range shooters around.

Point Guard--Jon Haakenson, Maple Grove, 6-1, junior

Had the game of his life in the big upset of Champlin Park with 20 points, 9 boards, 7 assists and 3 steals. It's just a damn shame one of these 6-0, 6-1 guards doesn't have another 3 or 4 inches of size.

Combo Guard--Lamar Grayson, Richfield, 6-1, senior

Quick, athletic, great scoring skills, not as good with his "1" skills.

2021 Boys All-State Tournament Teams--Class AAAA and AAA

 In the absence of official MSHSL all-tournament teams, here are mine. My choices for the other 6 tournaments, boys and girls, can be found elsewhere on this blog.

Class AAAA

AAAA Tournament MVP--Camden Heide, Wayzata, 6-6, junior, forward. This was a tough choice. For Wayzata, you could make a pretty good case for 3 or even 4 players as MVP. Heide didn't lead Wayzata in scoring in any of the 3 games, but he is the only Wayzata player to score in double figures all three times. He also led Wayzata in rebounding in the 2 TV games and had 6 steals. He's a solid 6-6 athlete with good mobility, but he's a better basketball player than athlete with just impeccable skills in every aspect of the game.

Tre Holloman, Cretin, 6-3, junior, point guard. Either Holloman or Heide is gonna be Mr. Basketball next year. Holloman is a vastly better athlete, wiry, quicker than quick, a great ball handler and a good scorer. He tied Wayzata's Eddie Beeninga for the scoring lead in AAAA at 51 points. His decision making with the ball could get better, he had 11 assists and 9 turnovers in the 2 TV games. 

Eddie Beeninga, Wayzata, 6-1, senior, point guard. Tied Holloman for scoring lead in AAAA, and when he scored just 9 points in the semi-final vs. Shakopee, he added 6 assists. Typical Wayzata kid--fearless, plays fast, plays hard.

Jack Plum, Cretin, 6-4, senior, power forward. The surprise player in AAAA. I had no idea how good and how tough Plum is. Scored 23 points with 31 rebounds and 4 steals. Opposing big men had to earn everything they got in the paint against Cretin and Plum.

Francis Nwaokorie, Champlin Park, 6-7, senior, post. Led Champlin to an unbeaten regular season but they lost to Maple Grove in OT to miss out on the TV portion of the tournament. Not his fault, however, as his 31 points were the most by any player in AAAA. 

2nd Team

Jon Haakenson, Maple Grove, 6-1, junior, point guard. Outplayed Champlin's Mr. Basketball finalist guard Joshua Strong with 20 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals.

Drew Berkeland, Wayzata, 5-11, junior, shooting guard. Led Wayzata with a total of 36 points in both TV games after scoring just 3 in the 1st round. 

Carter Bjerke, Wayzata, 6-9, junior, power forward. Another excellent all-around player. Of course he's big and strong, but also a nice shooter and scorer from the perimeter.

Kody Williams, Wayzata, 6-1, senior, combo guard. Only 2 teams have ever placed all 5 starters on the all-tournament team--Rochester in 1917 and Mpls. Marshall-U in 1976. The 1917 all-tournament team was definitely an "official" team named by the tournament organizers. There is some disagreement about who picked the 1976 team. The MSHSL abandoned picking all-tournament teams for awhile after going to 2 classes. There is no question whatsoever that Wayzata's 5-pack is unofficial. They're my picks, and who the hell am I, Nobody, that's who. But, hey, Kody was the low scorer among Wayzata's 5 starters yet even he scored in double figures twice and had 7 assists in the final. 

Mick Wherley, Shakopee, 6-6, senior, power forward. Led the Sabres with 26 points in 2 games and added 10 boards against Wayzata's behemoths.

Class AAA

AAA Tournament MVP--Chet Holmgren, Minnehaha, 7-1, senior, center. The biggest non-surprise of these all-star teams. Led AAA with 64 points and had 29 rebounds in the 2 TV games. Apparently nobody bothered to chart blocked shots because the Hub shows him with like 2 or 3. 2 or 3 per half more like it. Nobody could score in the lane with Chet down there. Even more than his scoring and rebounding, this was the one thing that totally demoralized his opponents.

Hercy Miller, Minnehaha, 6-3, senior, wing. Also unstoppable, at least among AAA competition. Scored at will inside and out for a total of 49 points.

Lamar Grayson, Richfield, 6-1, senior, combo guard. Great athlete with nice scoring skills. Scored 51 points in 2 games.

Cade Haskins, DeLaSalle, 6-6, senior, forward. One of the great 3-point shooters in the state, scored 32 against Hibbing in the 1st round but could manage just 13 against Minnehaha's athletes. 

Colton Roderick, Alexandria, 6-4, senior, wing. Big, strong, athletic, does a little bit of everything for the Cardinals. Forget whatever happened against Minnehaha. 33 points in his first 2 games, 7 assists in the semis.

2nd Team

Jake Braaten, Byron, 6-1, senior, combo guard. Byron was a revelation, beating Big 9 champion Austin the the section final, then losing to Minnehaha by just 12. Braaten scored 29 against Minnehaha. How does that happen?

Mercy Miller, Minnehaha, 6-3, freshman, shooting guard. The little brother scored in double digits 3 times. 

Mitchell January, Richfield, 6-0, junior, shooting guard. 32 points in 2 games.

Erik Hedstrom, Alexandria, 6-5, senior, power forward. Again, forget the Minnehaha game. Not a fair test for ordinary mortals. But, in fact, he led Alex with 10 points and 7 boards against the RedHawks.

Ayden McDonald, Hibbing, 6-4, junior, shooting guard. Scored 26 points in the 1st round vs. DeLaSalle.

2021 Boys All-State Tournament Teams Class A and AA

 Among many other things, the MSHSL is not picking an all-tournament team this year, and I'm told it may not reinstate the all-tournament teams...ever. We'll see. But for this year, you'll have to take my word for it. Oh, yeah, there'll be some other all-tournament teams out there but here is where you'll get the gospel truth.

Class AA

AA Tournament MVP--Ryan Dufault, Waseca, 6-0, senior, point guard. 6 feet? Seriously? He's listed at 6 feet. I was gonna say 5-9? Oh, well, your choice. But it turned out to be Ryan Dufault vs. Austin Klug for all the marbles. Klug outscored Dufault 25-23 in the final but you might have seen Dufault maneuver past not one, not two, but three Caledonia defenders for that final left baseline 12-footer with 3-4 seconds left. Over 3 games he scored 59 points to tie teammate Andrew Morgan for the AA scoring leader. But as good as Morgan and Kyreese Willingham are, and Waseca needed all 3, it became increasingly obvious as the tournament moved along that Dufault was the straw that stirred the drink. And in the end, he stirred up a state title.

Austin Klug, Caledonia, 6-5, senior, combo guard. So let me get this straight. Eli King was Caledonia's best player but he tore an ACL in January and didn't return. If King was half as good as Austin Klug, then if King was playing, there is no way in God's green earth that Caledonia doesn't win the AA title. But it wasn't meant to be. Klug averaged 15 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists during the regular season but, like his opposite number, Ryan Dufault, against elite competition, Klug stepped up and took charge of this team, averaging 19 ppg in 3 tournament games, and 8 boards and 3 assists in the 2 TV games. If he makes the game-winner, he's the MVP. They were that close.

Andrew Morgan, Waseca, 6-9, senior, power forward. Caledonia did a great job of neutralizing Morgan who scored 9 points with 8 boards and 2 blocks in the final. But for 3 games, he tied teammate Ryan Dufault for top scorer in AA (59 points), he scored 50 in his first 2 games, and was among the top rebounders and shot blockers. 

Chance Fazio, Fergus Falls, 6-0, senior, post. Fazio was a revelation. I had never seen him before. For a 7-foot 18 year old not named Chet Holmgren, he's got good mobility and especially good quickness around the ball, and good hands. He scored 36 points in 2 games, and had 15 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals and 4 blocks against Waseca and Andrew Morgan.

Kyreese Willingham, Waseca, 6-5, senior, wing. Like brother Malik, Kyreese is wonderfully athletic, which enabled him to score 35 points in 3 games with 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 7 steals in the 2 TV games. But, honestly, he's not much of a shooter, like brother Malik. Malik did everything else really well and went to Stanford to play college ball. Well, he ended up back at Mankato State where Kyreese will join him. I don't mean to be critical, really, I mean, he's the #4 player in the AA tournament. But it's kinda the truth.

2nd Team

Davon Townley, Minneapolis Central, 6-6, senior, center. Going to Penn State to play football but he's also a pretty good basketball player. Just a great strong, mobile athlete. He overpowered a damn good ballplayer in Sam Privet of Caledonia sometimes for 19 points and 10 boards.

Jackson Loge, Morris, 6-8, junior, post. I was surprised that Waseca beat Morris as badly as they did but Loge proved to be a player, scoring 25 points with 8 boards, 3 assists and 5 blocks.

Sam Privet, Caledonia, 6-8, senior, post. Lost the battle but won the war against Townley. Played Morgan to a draw. Scored 35 points in 3 games with 11 boards and 4 assists in the 2 TV games. Among Morgan, Fazio, Townley, Loge and Privet, the AA tournament had some really nice size out there.

Jackson Koepke, Caledonia, 6-3, junior, shooting guard. Missed the last second 3 from long distance that might have beaten Waseca. I mean, it wasn't a fair fight, he was 35 feet out. But Caledonia drew it up for Koepke, so the guy must be pretty good. He scored 40 points in 3 games.

Addison Metcalf, St. Croix Prep, 6-2, senior, shooting guard. I was surprised Caledonia beat St. Croix Prep as badly as they did, but Metcalf came to play, scoring 20 against what we found out was a hell of an opponent.

Class A

A Tournament MVP--Matt Thompson, Hancock, 6-7, junior, center. This is the toughest choice from any of the 8 tournaments, boys and girls. Thompson or Ethan Slaathaug, Slaathaug or Thompson. Slaathaug's team won and Slaathaug outscored Thompson 71-67. Slaathaug had 12 rebounds, 10 assists and 7 steals in 3 games, while Thompson had 31 boards in just the 2 TV games. In the final Thompson had 18-12-4-3, Slaathaug 20-3-3-4. Not much to pick. But also watching the 2 play 2 full games on TV and going head to head, I like Thompson's game just a little bit better.

Ethan Slaathaug, Hayfield, 6-3, senior, wing. Slaathaug was always on the attack, always full of energy and no question he made the state champions go. Thompson was more the stealthy assassin. Tough choice. But there's also no question that Slaathaug's got more help from his teammates than Thompson did.

Easton Fritcher, Hayfield, 6-0, junior, power forward. When I say Slaathaug's teammates had a little more chutzpah, I am especially thinking of Fritcher. Just 6-0, he pulled down 29 rebounds in the 1st round, just 3 short of an almost 60 year old record. He followed that up with 22 more in the 2 TV games. Just for good measure he also scored 30 points.

Kobey Dallager, Badger-Greenbush-Middle River, 6-1, junior, forward. Dallager sparked BGMR's 1st round upset of Deer River with 25 points and 8 boards, then added 14 against a very tough Hayfield opponent in the semis.

Isaac Matti, Hayfield, 6-2, sophomore, shooting guard. Matti was very solid for a youngster though he managed just 7 points in the final. He scored 40 in the 1st 2 rounds.

2nd Team

Trent Steffensmeier, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, 6-0, junior, combo guard. Scored 47 points in 2 games.

Case Mulder, Central Minnesota Christian, 6-0, junior, combo guard. Sleepy Eye beat CMC in the 1st round as both Steffensmeier and Mulder, both 6-0 juniors, scored 30 points apiece. Mulder added 5 assists.

Ethan Pack, Hayfield, 5-11, sophomore, shooting guard. By the way, just how the hell did Hayfield lose 4 games. Well, they have 2 sophomores starting. I suppose they improved. Like future running mate Matti, Pack was solid if unspectacular, making plays and avoiding mistakes. Just a good solid ballplayer who scored 43 points in 3 games with 10 assists.

Preston Rohloff, Hancock, 6-2, senior, point guard. Take more and more charge of the Hancock offense as the opposition got tougher. Had 6 and then 8 assists in the 2 TV games.

Kaleb Wait, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, 5-11, sophomore, shooting guard. Tough kid, scored 35 points in 2 games, was Sleepy Eye's best player in its semi-final loss to Hancock.

2021 Girls State Tournament Top 10 Performers

Yes, it was a weird tournament, what with COVID, the new seeding process and etc. etc. etc. But, hey, this is really weird. The tournament's leading scorer(s) are Madison Mathiowetz and Gianna Kneepkens, each of whom scored 67 points, Kneepkens in just one game, Mathiowetz in 2. Of all the players who played in 3 games, Maddyn Greenway scored 66 points, Kennedy Sanders 62, Paige Meyer and Jordyn Hilgemann 61. There are no words to describe how totally unlikely and inconceivable this is.

1st Team

Overall Tournament MVP--Gianna Kneepkens, Duluth Marshall, 5-11, senior, wing. OK, I know what you're thinkin.' She plays in Class AA. She didn't get out of the 1st round. But, hey, didja hear that she scored 67 points, a state record overall and for the state tournament. Carlie Wagner scored in the 50s a couple times and was a superstar. Of course, Carlie played her 1st round games here in the Twin Cities, and Gianna didn't get to do that. Wagner of course went on to score 20 ppg for the Minnesota Gophers. Kneepkens isn't going to do that either. She's going to score 20 ppg for Utah of the Pac 12. Sorry, I just can't get past that number--67. With that, by the way, Kneepkens also clinched the Miss Basketball award, as far as I'm concerned.

Julia Bengtson, Becker, 5-10, senior, point guard. Here again, you're probably thinking you want somebody from Class AAAA. But among all the outstanding point guards we saw in the state tournament--and on TV, most of them--Bengtson, to me, stood out. I mean, you can't go wrong with Paige Meyer or Kennedy Sanders or the oh-so-unconventional Helen Staley. But I want Bengtson on my team. Nobody makes the right decision with the ball as frequently as Bengtson. Nobody pushes the pace as hard without getting a little bit reckless. With the game on the line, I want to ball in Julia Bengtson's hands.

Paige Meyer, Albany, 5-6, senior, point guard. Like I said, you can't go too far wrong with Paige Meyer either. She outscored Bengtson in the tournament 61-48 and outrebounded her and had more assists. But that was against weaker competition and Bengtson had a half-dozen teammates to share the ball with. Meyer didn't have that kind of support. She had to do it herself and so she did. Bengtson really had to involve her teammates more because they had the skill and they deserved their shots, and Bengtson did that. Different situation. On the whole, I just think Bengtson makes a higher percentage of right choices. But, hey, Meyer is the #3 player in the whole tournament.

Helen Staley, Rosemount, 6-0, senior, athlete. OK, if it's Class AAAA you want, then Helen Staley is your all-star. She dominated Chaska. She outplayed Kennedy Sanders offensively and she stifled Mallory Heyer on the D. She's not a big scorer but in a pinch--17 points vs. Chaska. And, in the 2 TV games, 9 boards and 5 assists per game. Somebody described Chaska's Kaylee Van Eps as a Swiss Army knife and, well, sure. But what in the world does that make Helen Staley?

Mallory Heyer, Chaska, 5-11, junior, power forward. OK, Helen Staley outplayed her in the final. Heyer did the same to metro player of the year Maya Nnaji in the semi, outscoring Nnaji 24-9 and outrebounding her 13-6. Without that performance, Hopkins gets to 80 straight wins and a state title.

2nd Team

Kennedy Sanders, Chaska, 5-8, sophomore, point guard. I thought Sanders was the best point guard in the tournament after her 21 point game vs. Hopkins. Nobody stands up to Hopkins' defensive pressure like Sanders did. But, then, she had zero assists against Rosemount's amazing D and dropped down to here. Still, like I said of Heyer, without Sanders, Chaska doesn't beat Hopkins and therefore they don't beat Rosemount.

Kaylee Van Eps, Chaska, 5-11, senior, wing. OK, here's your Swiss army knife. Scored 33 points with 12 assists in the 2 TV games. Oh, and scored the bucket that won the title for the Hawks.

Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, 5-10, junior, combo guard. Yes, it was a weird tournament, what with COVID, the new seeding process and etc. etc. etc. But, hey, this is really weird. The tournament's leading scorer(s) are Mathiowetz and Kneepkens, each of whom scored 67 points, Kneepkens in just one game, Mathiowetz in 2. Of all the players who played in 3 games, Maddyn Greenway scored 66 points, Kennedy Sanders 62, Paige Meyer and Jordyn Hilgemann 61. There are no words to describe how totally unlikely and inconceivable this is.

Jordyn Hilgemann, Marshall, 6-0, senior, wing. Did I mention that she scored 61 points in 3 games and had 13 steals in 2 TV games.

Grace Counts, Providence, 6-0, sophomore, center/forward. OK, the 10th spot coulda gone to anyone of a half dozen players but we've got plenty of guards. You might want to say that Maddyn Greenway was the Lions' best player but, like I say, we've got plenty of guards. Let's not forget that a lot of games are won and lost on the inside where Counts was really terrific. 49 points, 38 boards, 13 assists and 12 blocks. I just couldn't pass on all of that.

2021 Girls All-State Tournament Teams Class AAA and AAAA

Class AAA

1st Team

Tournament MVP--Julia Bengtson, Becker, 5-10, senior, point guard. Bengtson is the most exciting player in this year's tournament regardless of class. She is perhaps the most instinctive player in the state regardless of whether they made the tournament or not. She's a Miss Basketball finalist despite being pretty much totally disrespected by Prep Girls Hoops, who have her at #21 among the senior class. Seriously? I won't say who she's better than but I will say this. 2 girls who are more highly rated than Bengtson played in final games today, and Bengtson is better than either of them. If not top 5, then top 6. And back into serious contention for Miss Basketball.

Jordyn Hilgemann, Marshall, 5-11, senior, forward. Then there's Hilgemann, or Hil-GUM-mon, as Dave Lee pronounced it on the air most of the day. #39 on Prep Girls Hoops. The #1 scorer in Marshall history, led the AAA tournament in scoring with 61 points, and, oh, yeah, 8 steals against Becker, and #39. Sure, she's going D2, but she led her team to 2nd place in Class AAA. C'mon, guys, this is embarrassing.

Emily Meier, Marshall, 5-10, senior, power forward.

And Abigail Wendorff, Marshall, 5-10, center. Marshall's "big girls" only go 5-10 but they sure do what they want in the lane. Wendorff scored 40 and Meier 39. Becker gave Hilgemann a tough time on the perimeter, and so Wendorff and Meier got it going inside for 33 points. 

Courtney Nuest, Becker, 5-9, senior, shooting guard. You could have any one of 3 or 4 Becker girls in this spot but Nuest scored 33 points and helped out on the boards.

2nd Team

Adeline Kent, Becker, 5-8, junior, shooting guard.

Megan Gamble, Becker, 5-10, senior, power forward. Again, there are 2 or 3 more Becker girls you could put here. Kent was their #2 scorer at 44, while Gamble did the dirty work in the lane, scoring just 17 points but adding 16 boards and a handful of assists and steals.

Frankie Vascellero, Holy Angels, 5-11, shooting guard. Great shooter with 19 points in each of 2 games but came up one game short of the final for the 3rd time.

Kassandra Caron, Holy Angels, 6-0, junior, power forward. Scored 31 points in 2 games. 30 in the quarter-finals and one in the semis. But she added 3 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals in that 2nd game.

Lilli Mackley, Hill-Murray, 6-0, senior, combo guard. Becker demolished Hill-Murray but Mackley and teammates Bella Hartzell and Ella Runyon had a great season. One of them had to sneak in here and I like Mackley.

Class AAAA

1st Team

Tournament MVP--Helen Staley, Rosemount, 6-0, senior, combo guard. OK, I've never been a big admirer of Helen Staley but of course I haven't seen very much ball this year, and I also thought Rosemount had no chance whatsoever in this tournament, even after Chaska knocked off Hopkins. I was wrong, wrong, wrong. Staley dominated the final. Granted, she does not appear to have been the star of Rosemount's really big upset win over Farmington, but then she had 9 assists in the semis vs. Centennial. And now 17 pints, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and she did most of the heavy lifting in guarding Mallory Heyer and holding the Gopher recruit to 7 points. The only thing Staley didn't do was drain the 3 at the buzzer. That was just too much to ask. Other than that, she was darn near perfect.

Mallory Heyer, Chaska, 6-1, junior, power forward. Scored 50 points in 3 games with 22 rebounds in the TV games and 4 assists and 4 blocks in the final. She totally outplayed metro player of the year Maya Nnaji in the semis.

Kennedy Sanders, Chaska, 5-8, sophomore, point guard. Led AAAA with 62 points. Gotta say, Rosemount defended her like, uh, Rosemount. It's not that she scored 10 in the final. She had zero assists! Still, she scored 21 against Hopkins to make the final game win over Rosemount possible.

Taylor Woodson, Hopkins, 6-0, sophomore, forward. Was Hopkins best player in the tournament with 31 points in 2 games and 13 boards vs. Chaska. 

Kaylee Van Eps, Chaska, 5-11, senior, forward. Scored the winning basket for a total of 33 points in 3 games, plus 12 rebounds in the 2 TV games. Also a solid ball handler and a great defender. 

2nd Team

Jodi Anderson, Centennial, 5-11, senior, wing. Scored 34 points in 2 games with 17 rebounds.

Nicole O'Neil, Rosemount, 5-10, sophomore, shooting guard. I called her Rosemount's secret weapon, its top 3-point shooter. But her big sister Larisa did exactly the same thing, making 70 of them last year. Well, Nicole is not a secret anymore with 31 points in 3 games and 3-of-5 3s in the final.

Nu Nu Agara, Hopkins

Maya Nnaji, Hopkins. Agara scored 23 points in 2 games with 10 boards against Chaska. Nnaji also scored 23 and blamed herself the the loss as Mallory Heyer outplayed the metro player of the year.

Peyton Blandin, Farmington. How in the world anybody scored 26 points vs. Rosemount is beyond me. I mean, they held Jodi Anderson to 10, Mallory Heyer to 7. But Blandin did it. It's not her fault that Farmington failed to return to the title game.

 

2021 Girls All-State Tournament Teams Class A and AA

Among many other innovations, the MSHSL is not naming all-tournament teams at the 2021 basketball tournaments. I'm sure there are many of "us" bloggers who will fill that gap and I'm certainly going to be among them. The MSHSL has typically picked 10 all-stars and so I'll stay with that, but I'm going to list them as 1st and 2nd team, and I'm going to tell you who the MVP of each tournament is. So here we go.

Class A

1st Team

Tournament MVP--Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, 5-10, junior, combo guard. 67 points in 2 games plus 22 rebounds and 8 assists. Obviously she can score, but nobody in the Class A tournament has the overall skills and the court presence of the Sleepy Eye junior. Her 44 points in the 1st round are the 2nd highest total for the entire tournament and her 23 in the semis is the 3rd highest in Class A. 

Abby Hennen, Minneota, 5-9, senior, combo guard. She was the best player on the best team, who did a little bit of everything. Not just the 52 points in 3 games, but 12 assists in the 2 TV games, even 4 blocked shots. Whatever the Vikings needed. 

Natalee Rolbiecki, Minneota, 5-10, junior, post. Rolbiecki is just a great athlete--all-state in volleyball, too. Very mobile for her size.  She started in the post. I mean, Minneota didn't have anybody else that played inside, but she plays like a stretch-4. She scored 49 points in 3 games with 12 boards and 5 steals in the 2 TV games.

Allison Knight, Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa, 6-0, senior, center. More of a true back-to-the basket post than Rolbiecki and more of a shot blocker. She scored 37 points in 3 games with 20 rebounds and 8 blocks in the 2 TV games. 

Abby Rost, Minneota, 5-8, senior, combo guard. Rost scored 9 points in the 1st round, then 11 with 7 boards in the semi. But while her stats were just a little better in the final--12 points, 9 boards--she was much more active and more integral to the Vikings game as Hennen struggled through parts of the game. She was also the 2nd ball-handler that Minneota sometimes desperately needed.

2nd Team

Abby Berge, BBE, 5-10, sophomore, combo guard. Scored 27 in the 1st round, then just 10 on TV, but added 20 rebounds in those 2 games.

Morgan Chmielewski, Mayer Lutheran, 5-10, senior, wing. Did a little bit of everything in the 1st round loss to Sleepy Eye St. Mary's with 12 points, 6 boards, t5assists and 3 steals.

Lexi Bright, West Central, 5-7, junior, shooting guard. Scored her season's average, 22 points, in the 1st round loss to BBE.

Jordan Zubich, Mountain Iron-Buhl, 5-11, junior, shooting guard. Scored just 19 points but was MIB's best player in their 1-point loss to the eventual champions from Minneota. 

Josie Knutson, Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa, 5-3, senior, point guard. Scored in double figures in all 3 games, and provided some much needed glue.

Class AA

1st Team

Tournament MVP--Gianna Kneepkens, Duluth Marshall, 5-11, senior, wing. Set an all-time state record, tournament or not, with 67 points vs. Providence in the 1st round. What a terrible shame not to see such a performance if only on TV. And, it was no fluke. She led the state with 43 ppg and is Utah-bound.

Paige Meyer, Albany, senior, point guard. In any ordinary year, Meyer would be the MVP. She was the best player and the leader of the best team, scoring 61 points in 3 games plus 20 boards, 16 assists and 8 steals in the 2 TV games. Reckless at times. South Dakota State will deal with that.

Grace Counts, Providence, 6-0, sophomore, center. The bigger and younger of the Counts girls. Maybe the better, at least for these last 3 games. Scored 49 points, with 38 rebounds, 13 assists and 12 blocks. In an ordinary year, and if Providence had won the final, she could be the MVP.

Maddyn Greenway, Providence, 5-7, 7th grade, point guard. Might be the biggest impact 7th grader I have ever seen. Don't know what her upside is because I don't know how big she'll get, but her dad is a retired Vikings linebacker, so she might get bigger. I'm thinking Rachel Banham for upside. For the moment, she scored 66 points with 16 assists. Her floor game and decision making and sharing the ball needs work but, hey, she's in 7th grade.

Maria Counts, Providence, 5-11, junior, power forward. Scored 38 points with 29 boards and 10 assists, and blocked 7 shots in the final alone. 

2nd Team

Abbie Christen, Albany, 5-7, senior, shooting guard. Scored 26 points for the champions.

Miah Monahan, Glencoe-Silver Lake, 5-9, senior, point guard. Scored 40 points in 2 games with 10 boards, 7 assists and 3 steals in the semis.

Mackenzie Rich, New London-Spicer, 5-7, senior, point guard. Scored 42 points in 2 games, and added 5 assists in the semi-final loss to Providence. 

Erin Knisely, New London-Spicer, 6-2, senior, center. Had a nice game vs. Providence with 15 points and 17 boards. 

Emma Hanson, New London-Spicer, 5-8, senior, small forward. Scored 26 in the 1st round, just 5 in the semis.

2021 State Tournament Preview--Boys Class AA and A

 Boys Class 2A

There were just a couple of section upsets here--Annandale and Moose Lake were the perpretrators, though I have to say that I had Annandale all the way despite its 3-seed behind Melrose and Mora. Moose Lake not so much though I should note that they're the highest scoring team in the field. Still the 3 major powers here are Caledonia, Mpls. North and Waseca, 2 of whom will play for the title.

So the QF don't look particularly compelling. The one and only possibility of an upset is St. Croix Prep vs. Caledonia, because it's so hard to know what to make of the Prepsters. They're 20-1 and yet they're just #15 in the QRF. They play in the not-tough Skyline conference and their non-conference schedule highlighted the Little Sisters of the Poor. By way of contrast, Legacy Christian from the not-tough MCAA went 20-1 and got a #2 QRF, but that's in Class A. But, all of that aside, I don't expect an upset but I can't say I know if St. Croix Prep is good, bad or in between. Otherwise, it's not that hard to peg the other contenders. So:

• Caledonia 73 St. Croix Prep 56

• Waseca 68 Morris 60. Morris is very possibly the #4 team in this field and so the format didn't do them any favors.

• Mpls. North 82 Moose Lake-Willow River 65. Again, Moose Lake is the highest scoring team in the field (any class) but they also give up the most points (in Class AA).

• Annandale 60 Fergus Falls 52.

In the SF, Waseca knocks off Annandale 69-61.

Then, well, here it comes, the first matchup of the big 3--North vs. Caledonia. Now, keep in mind, Waseca beat North in both 2019 and 2020 while North and Caledonia split a pair of games those same years. But, as far as Caledonia is concerned, let the record show that superstar Eli King went out with a knee injury in January and he won't be back. You might have missed it because Caledonia just kept rolling along. But at this level it becomes a big deal and so North should prevail 66-63.

Final: Both teams have a lot of depth, so this should be a very high energy affair. That might work to North's advantage as Willie Wilson et al might have a little bit of an advantage in the quickness category. And, by depth, I mean 3 bench players who score 6 points apiece. Waseca's depth is one player less deep but they have 2 kids off the bench who score 8 points. So lot's of firepower on both sides. 

If it comes down to quickness: North. If it's decided inside, well, North has 6-6 senior Davon Townley (15 pts, 9 reb) while Waseca has Andrew Morgan, 6-8 senior who is headed to North Dakota State (22 pts, 6 reb). Both are among the state's best big men; Morgan is the best after Holmgren and Tschetter. Advantage Waseca. But the advantages on both sides are small. Still, Waseca has 2 wins over North in recent years. So this could be considered a surprise:

North 65 Waseca 64. Tournament MVP: Willie Wilson, North, senior, guard.

Boys Class A

Okay, this is always the toughest pick among the 8 boys and girls tournaments 1) because Class A has less non-conference play among the elite teams statewide and 2) the boys Class A entries change out a lot while the girls section champs seem to be the same year after year. Here in fact there is almost nobody with any significant tournament experience in recent years.

To wit, 3 teams are making their first state appearance: Deer River, Legacy and Nevis. But, their tournament jitters won't be anything more than everybody else except maybe Central Minnesota Christian. They were here in 2015, 2016 and 2017 and finished 3rd in 2015. Hayfield was here in 2013. Otherwise nobody remembers their last appearance: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 2006, Hancock 2003, Badber-Greenbush-Middle River 2007. Hancock won a title in 1998, Hayfield was runnerup in 2002. But, again, nobody has an advantage in recent tournament play with the exception of CMC.

In the QF in the south:

• #1 Legacy (20-1) and #4 Hayfield (18-4) are a tough pick for a 1 vs. 4. Legacy's not that good and Hayfield's not that bad. They game will be in Rochester. Advantage Hayfield? Nah. But Hayfield's top 2 players are probably better than Legacy's but Legacy goes 6 deep with scoring threats, Hayfield 4. So I'll take Hayfield 65-63.

• #2 Central MN Christian vs. #3 Sleepy Eye St. Mary's is a real toss-up. CMC beat Wabasso by 13, SESM beat Wabasso by 16 and 1. Both of them outscored their opponents by 12 points per game. Both teams can score. I think CMC might be better able to get a really big stop. CMC 66 Sleepy Eye 62.

 In the north:

• Nevis is a solid fave vs. Hancock, though Hancock beat undefeated and #1 QRF Mahnomen, but Mahnomen was never that good. Nevis 62 Hancock 55.

• Deer River should defeat Badger-Greenbush-Middle River. Deer River is the second highest scoring team in the field (all classes) but only 4 teams have given up fewer points than BGMR. A buddy of mine says that good defense is just bad offense. I think that means that if Deer River is really a good offense, they should win. I think. Deer River 66 BGMR 57.

In the semis:

• Deer River 68 Hayfield 64

• Nevis 65 CMC 58

So 2 first-timers meet in the final. Nevis is deeper. I like Nevis 65 Deer River 64. Tournament MVP: Eddie Kramer, Nevis, 6-4, junior, F.

State Tournament Preview 2021 Boys--Class AAAA and AAA

Well, first of all, thank goodness there's a state tournament, and here's hoping that it is played out to the end, until we have 8 2021 Minnesota state high school basketball champions. Of course, due to COVID, we've got an unusual format. We've had 1st round games out in the hinterlands before but never quite like this:

In each class--boys 4A, 3A, 2A and A and girls 4A, 3A, 2A and A--the four southern sections--1, 2, 3 and 4--will be seeded 1 through 4, and ditto the four northern sections--which are of course 5, 6, 7 and 8. The 2 winners from the south and the 2 winners from the north will come to the Twin Cities for the semi-finals and finals. There will be no 3rd place game and there will be no all-tournament. Well, of course, there will be all-tournament teams picked by various media, including right here. But it's weird that the MSHSL will not pick an all-tournament team because they almost never give any consideration to 1st round losers, even when there are consolation games. Oh well.

Boys Class 4A

Champlin Park is the only unbeaten at 21-0 and has been rated #1 all year long and is #1 QRF. The obvious challenger is Wayzata at 16-2 and #2 QRF. They have no common opponents but Champlin outscored its opponents by an average of 70-54, Wayzata by an impressive 78-59. Champlin's signatures are a 75-65 win over Totino-Grace and a pair of OT wins vs. Park Center, including in the section final. Wayzata lost to Hopkins and Minnehaha by 7 each, but bounced back to beat Hopkins.

Champlin is led by a classic inside/outside duo, both seniors: 6-7 Francis Nwaokorie (19 ppg) and 6-1 Joshua Strong (6-1). Wayzata would seem to have more weapons with juniors 6-9 Carter Bjerke and 6-6 Camden Heide, both of whom can score both outside and in; and 6-1 senior Eddie Beeninga. Both teams are in the north half of the draw and fortunately they won't meet until the finals. So often the finals comes down to guard play, so Strong vs. Beeninga will be key. On the other hand, on paper Bjerke and Heide might be a little too much for Champlin. If they both play well, Wayzata wins. 

We see the quarterfinals like this: 

• #1S Shakopee takes on the tournament's biggest Cinderella team, Owatonna. Owatonna beat #1 seed Lakeville South rather impressively in the Section 1 final, 94-85, and #4S seems like kind of a tough draw. But the Big 9's AAAA teams get killed on QRF because 7 of the 12 teams in the conference are AAA. Still, Mankato West, who finished 4th in the Big 9 at 13-4 but won Section 2AAA, got a #2 seed. But, Byron, who beat Big 9 champion Austin in 1AAA, also got a #4 seed. You know darn well Austin would have been #2 and Byron beat 'em. These seeds can be downright irrational and the southeastern (Section 1) teams in all classes end up all over the place because they play more games outside their class than most other teams. 

So anyway, Shakopee uses its depth to grind out wins. Owatonna relies on 6-8 Evan Dushek and 6-2 guard Brayden Williams, both juniors. Owatonna beat Lakeville South by 9, as we said. Shakopee split with South, winning by 27 and losing by 3. This game will be at Hastings, and we'll take Owatonna in an upset 59-57.

• Cretin beats Rosemount in another tight game, 61-59.

• Champlin beats Maple Grove 63-54 in an unfortunate conference matchup.

• Wayzata defeats Duluth East 74-63.

In the semis, Champlin beats Cretin 73-68, and Wayzata beats Owatonna 75-63.

Final: Wayzata 71 Champlin 69, Tournament MVP: Camden Heide, Wayzata, junior, F.

Boys Class 3A

Minnehaha is the prohibitive favorite here, but for now the story line is the 5 #2 and lower seeds that advanced to the state tournament, creating some interesting 1st round matchups. By next week, however, the talk will return to Minnehaha. The irony is that a year ago the Minnehaha people were talking up their team as the greatest in Minnesota history which, after 3 losses including one to undefeated Eden Prairie, turned out to be a pretty gross case of self-promotion. This year, there is no such talk, at least not that I've heard, but at the very least there is a very good chance that Minnehaha is the best team in Minnesota. The quite obviously have the best player in 7-footer Chet Holmgren, who is also regarded as the best 2021 player in the country. Its 70-63 win over Wayzata will be Exhibit A if both Minnehaha and Wayzata go on to win their respective championships, as is the prediction here.

The previously mentioned upsets include Byron over #1 Austin in Section 1AAA, Richfield over South St. Paul in 3, #7 Monticello over Delano in 5, and, well.... I don't consider DeLaSalle or Hibbing to be upsets, really, though neither was seeded #1. In any event, the 1st round seeds were pretty complicated with all the sectional upsets but here is where we ended up:

Byron has the unenviable task of facing Minnehaha. As noted above, #4 was a really tough seed considering they beat Big 9 champion Austin in the section final. Byron is seeded 2 spots below Mankato West in the AAA south despite the fact that West finished 4th in the Big 9, 3 spots below Austin.The Big 9's AAAA teams get killed by QRF because the conference includes those 7 AAA teams. The AAA teams get a big boost from playing the 5 AAAA teams in the conference. Still, here was as good as a head-to-head. Byron, with 2 losses, clearly should have been #2 ahead of West and Richfield with 4 losses each. Not only that but Byron may very well have the 2nd best prospect in AAA in 6-9 junior Ahjany Lee, but you won't see him on TV.

• Minnehaha 75 Byron 62.

• Mankato West and Richfield are pretty close to a toss-up but we'll take West 68-63.

• Once-beaten Alexandria snags the #1 seed in the north and clobbers 8-13, #7 seed Monticello 66-55.

• Hibbing gets the unenviable task of playing DeLaSalle; don't care if the Islanders lost 5 and were seeded #2; I don't want any part of them in round 1. Still Hibbing has a shot and in fact I'll take the Bluejackets 65-61.

In the semis, again Hibbing gets the matchup from hell. Minnehaha 77 Hibbing 64. And Mankato West escapes Alex 60-58.

Final: Minnehaha 72 Mankato West 58. Tournament MVP: duh, Chet Holmgren, Minnehaha, senior, C.

2021 State Tournament Preview--AA and A Girls

 Class AA

Conspiracy theorists might have some fun with the Class AA seeds and matchups. 1st, 3 of the best 4 teams are in the north unless you think Minnehaha (3 losses) is better than Providence (to whom it lost twice) or Duluth Marshall or Albany, with a total of just 4 losses among them. Then there's a really strange flip-flop in the south where Lake City (3 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 27 points) gets the #4 seed, and Glencoe (4 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points) gets #3. 

As a result, here are the brackets along with the team's rating from 1 to 8 (according to me).

Albany 5 vs. Pelican Rapids 7

Minnehaha 6 vs. Glencoe-Silver Lake 8

New London Spicer 2 vs. Lake City 4

Providence 1 vs. Duluth Marshall 3

Now it's true that Albany has been rated as highly as #1 this year but call me a skeptic. Lake City was just a #3 seed in Section 1 but Section 1 is always very competitive. A key to winning a state title is not losing, and any team that gets a game that it probably can't lose is a giant step ahead of the game. Albany and Minnehaha got those games and yet they're arguably the 5th and 6th best teams in the field. Sure, there's other ways to look at these matchups. The top 6 teams are all contenders. But this is how I see it. All 4 teams in the lower bracket are going to have to win 2 very competitive games just to get to the final.

It is what it is, and here's how we think it's going to go.

As we noted, #1N Albany was rated #1 for awhile. Albany also lost just once, to unbeaten, #1 New London-Spicer, and outscored their opponents by 30 points. And they've got senior guard Paige Meyer. Still, I don't see Albany as a title contender even though there's a very good chance they can get to the final. At this stage, I see Albany beating Pelican Rapids 52-43.

As noted, Minnehaha gets a lucky break, drawing possibly the weakest team in the tournament. Glencoe has the most losses in the field, the lowest QRF and the 2nd lowest average winning margin. Minnehaha wins 59-53. 

Now the going gets really tough. New London-Spicer is unbeaten, rated #1, seeded #1S, and they draw an opponent to whom they could just as easily lose. It's a tough draw for Lake City, too, obviously, against the #1 overall seed and a team that has state tournament experience from last year, which experience Lake City lacks. The Lakers might have a better chance in the 2nd round. Here it's NLS 57 Lake City 56.

Providence went 20-1 losing only to Concordia, and outscored its opponents by 31 points, yet was just #9 in QRF. They beat state tourney entry Minnehaha twice and won 3 section games by an average of 24 points. 5-6 7th grader Maddyn Greenway, daughter of the old Viking LB, has emerged as Minnesota's newest superstar, scoring 21 ppg. I like Providence to go all the way. But Duluth Marshall has the best player in the AA field and maybe Ms. Basketball in Gianna Kneepkens, the state's leading scorer at 42 ppg. Not only that but Duluth has state tournament experience from last year as well. Still, like I said, I like Providence to go all the way and they can't do that unless they win this win. Providence 52 Duluth Marshall 49. 

In the SF, Providence 52 New London 50, and Albany 55 Minnehaha 53. Like I said, it's tight, and if you scrambled the seeds and matchups, you could just as easily have Duluth Marshall and Lake City in the final. But you don't, or won't.

Final: Providence 56 Albany 51. Tournament MVP: Paige Meyer, Albany, senior, PG.

Class A

There's a little less to argue about in Class A. Well, there's the south seeds where Houston comes in 18-0 and gets #4 and a 1st round date with defending state champion (2019) and probable 2020 champion until it was cancelled, also unbeaten, Minneota at 22-0. The problem is that Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, who ended up #3, in unbeaten, too. Mayer Lutheran, on the other hand, has 2 losses. Why not them #4? Well, Mayer Lutheran is #1 QRF, Sleepy Eye #6 and Houston just #14. So who really deserves to get Minneota in the 1st round? How about 17-5 West Central? Well, they're in the north.

So, again, it is what it is, and here is what it really is.

#1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 56 #4N West Central 47

#3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 65 #2S Mayer Lutheran 63

#1S Minneota 58 #4 Houston 52

#2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 61 #3N Cass Lake-Bena 52

In the SF, #3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 #1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 57, and

#1S Minneota 56 #2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 55

In the final, well, the best player doesn't always win, but it helps to have the best player, and the best player in this field, previously unmentioned, is Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye junior guard.

Final: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 Minneota 55. Tournament MVP: Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, junior, guard

2021 State Tournament Preview--Girls AAAA and AAA

Well, first of all, thank goodness there's a state tournament, and here's hoping that it is played out to the end, until we have 8 2021 Minnesota state high school basketball champions. Of course, due to COVID, we've got an unusual format. We've had 1st round games out in the hinterlands before but never quite like this:

In each class--boys 4A, 3A, 2A and A and girls 4A, 3A, 2A and A--the four southern sections--1, 2, 3 and 4--will be seeded 1 through 4, and ditto the four northern sections--which are of course 5, 6, 7 and 8. The 2 winners from the south and the 2 winners from the north will come to the Twin Cities for the semi-finals and finals. There will be no 3rd place game and there will be no all-tournament. Well, of course, there will be all-tournament teams picked by various media, including right here. But it's weird that the MSHSL will not pick an all-tournament team because they almost never give any consideration to 1st round losers anyway, even when there are consolation games. Oh well.

Among the girls there are an astonishing total of 9 unbeatens. Imagine coming into the state tournament unbeaten like, say, Houston at 18-0 and getting a #4S seed. But, that's what happened. In AAAA one of the 1st round games will match unbeatens Chaska and Stillwater. This (the 9 unbeatens) is of course in part a function of fewer games played and specifically a lack of non-conference games for some schools. So, in other words, easier-than-normal schedules.

Among the girls, you also had a relatively small number of section upsets. None in 4A though unbeaten Stillwater needed on OT to defeat East Ridge. Only one, really, in 3A. #3 Austin also advanced but that was after #1 Red Wing was COVIDed out. There were 4 in 2A and 2 in A. That made the seedings a lot easier.

So here we go.

Class AAAA Girls

With 4 unbeatens, Class 4A still remains the province of the Hopkins Royals and their 77 straight wins until somebody proves otherwise. Forest Lake drew the Royals in the 1st round, and the winner of Chaska and Stillwater, both unbeaten, will get Hopkins in the semi. Farmington, #1 in the south, is the favorite to return to the final for the 2nd straight year. Last year's final was of course cancelled. So this year could be a case of double or nothing.

Both of the 2-3 games should be great games by the way. Chaska and Stillwater, well, have I mentioned that they're unbeaten? Point guards Kennedy Sanders and Alexis Pratt are 2 of the state's best but I don't think Stillwater has anybody up front to slow down Mallory Heyer, Gopher recruit with 22 ppg. Still, this is as good as a tossup. Stillwater got its bad game out of its system in the section vs. East Ridge. Ditto Centennial and Elk River, who split a pair of regular season games. This game may be decided in the post where Centennial's Jenna Guyer and Elk's Johanna Langbehn are solid.

So in the QF, we like Hopkins by double digits, Farmington by 8, Elk River by 4, and Chaska by 2.

In the SF, Hopkins beats Chaska by a dozen, and Farmington beats Elk River by 6.

In the final, Farmington's chances will be governed by 6-5 post Sophie Hart, and whether she can single-handedly slow down Hopkins 6-footers Maya Nnaji, Nunu Agara and Taylor Woodson. It says here that's too much to ask but if Farmington's sharpshooters Peyton Blandin and Paige Kindseth manage to hit at least a half dozen 3s, then it could be closer than expected. Still, we see Hopkins getting to 80 straight wins, 67-60, and that would only be Hopkins 3rd closest game of the year. So, again, don't count your chickens. But anything other than a Hopkins title will be an upset.

AAAA MVP: Maya Nnaji, Hopkins, 6-4, junior, C

Class AAA Girls

2020 finalist Becker was rated #1 all year until losing by 1 at Holy Angels and then to AAAA Minnetonka and Hopkins before winning 2 section games by an average of 86-34 to return to the big show. The final rankings had Becker #3 behind Hill-Murray and Holy Angels, and QRF had them ranked the same way. But, make no mistake, Becker is the team to beat. Hill-Murray outscored its opponents by an average of 26 points, Holy Angels 24 and Becker 41. 

But, wait. Becker beat Big Lake by just 6 in the section. Hill-Murray beat Mahtonedi by 3. Holy Angels did win by double digits, beating Benilde by 11. Still, making AAA will be more competitive than you thought.

And consider that after the "big 3," Marshall is unbeaten after beating Waconia by 7. So let's just say "big 4," and all 4 should advance, despite the close calls.

Becker has 5 girls averaging in double figures, led by senior point guard Julia Bengtson (15 ppg). You cannot stop all of them. And they have 6 girls who made at least 10 3-pointers and shot 34 percent among them. Sophomore Maren Westin made 47 percent of her 3s. They'll beat Alexandria 73-60 in the 1st round.

Now, don't get me wrong. Holy Angels is a great team with 4 girls scoring in double figures and something of a size advantage inside. The Stars beat Becker 71-70 as Becker made just 14-of-44 3s and just 9-of-29 2s, not to mention 12-of-22 FT. The Stars are the better defensive team, but it's hard to see Becker shooting like that again. Holy Angels gets perennial power Grand Rapids in the 1st, and wins 64-54.

Hill-Murray is a more conventional team with 3 double-digit scorers, and Ella Runyon's 19 ppg is the best on any of the 3 teams. Hill-Murray gets Austin in the 1st, who has also been here before, and grinds it out 55-47.

Marshall gets St. Croix Lutheran, the only real upset winner in the field with a 1-point win over St. Paul Como in the section final. Marshall is led by Jordyn Hilgeman and her 21.5 ppg and if the top 4 teams go down to the wire, I want Hilgeman shooting the ball for the win at the buzzer. Marshall 61 St. Croix Lutheran 54.

Marshall ironically has rivalries going with all 3 of the other SF. Holy Angels upset the Tigers en route to the 2016 state title. Becker beat Marshall on a last-second 3 in the 1st round in 2018, and Marshall coach Dan Westby said, maybe we should just send Becker the next couple of state title trophies. And Marshall and Hill-Murray used to play home-and-home every year.

In the SF, Marshall renews its rivalry with Holy Angels and turns the tables on 2016, 62-57. 

In the other SF, Becker beats Hill-Murray 69-61.

Final: This one won't go to the last second but it will be a great game. Becker 77 Marshall 72. Tournament MVP: Julia Bengtson, Becker, senior, PG.

2021 Season Preview

Of course, it's a little late for a 2021 season preview. Heck, the season is way past half over. Well, I blinked and I missed it--the start of the season. It kind of got underway with a bit of a whimper. The Gophers had virtually no non-conference games, the MIAC and NSC started six weeks late, the high schools ditto and no big season-opening extravaganzas. In addition to that--and more to the point, really--my wife has cancer. Some of you know that I resigned from North Star Girls Hoops (now Prep Girls Hoops) for that reason. She's had 3-and-a-half really good years since her diagnosis, but she has not been well the past 5-6 months. But I am not complaining. We have had 46 great years together and besides that, they have now said that the cancer that flared up the past 5-6 months is gone, though there was some nerve damage that makes it very difficult for her to walk, at least at the moment. Between that and COVID, I am not allowed to go to any games. But I am tracking what's happening....

Some of you know that one of the features of Minnesota Hoops is a Player of the Year, Team of the Year, Coach of the Year and Game of the Year for every season back to 1900, and 2021 will be no exception. I have no forecast at this point as to what the Game of the Year will be, but today I am going to kick off my belated coverage of 2021 with my PoY, ToY and CoY candidates.

Player of the Year

The top player of the past 2 seasons, Paige Bueckers, is gone as far as strictly Minnesota Hoops is concerned, though it is true that once in 120 years, I picked a PoY who did not play for a Minnesota team. That was Kevin McHale back in 1986. It could happen, but I'm not going to forecast doing so. I'm going to focus on Minnesota-based players, starting at the top of the food chain--that is, professional ball--and then doing the colleges and then the high schools.

Minnesota Timberwolves--I've seen enough of the Wolves to know that the PoY is not going to be a Timberwolf, but I will put Anthony Edwards on the list. He's not the Wolves best player, yet, but Karl-Anthony Towns, who is, has missed too many games. Edwards is the new face and provides some hope for the future so he makes the list.

Minnesota Lynx--Crystal Dangerfield and Napheesa Collier are the new wave. I don't honestly think they're PoY candidates just yet, but who knows. That could change if the Lynx got to the WNBA finals, for example.

Minnesota Gopher men--Marcus Carr is the obvious choice though his performance on the road is a big negatory. 

Minnesota Gopher women--Wow. I don't see any candidates here. Too many turnovers, poor shooting percentages, getting outplayed inside, very spotty defense. There seems to be some talent but it stubbornly refuses to gel.

MIAC and Northern Sun--Right now, I like Brooke Olson of UMD and Anders Nelson of St. Thomas. New candidates could emerge from teams that get their act together,  but most of them have played so few games that it's very hard to tell who that's going to be. So I'll stick with the Swedes.

High school boys--OK, now, at last we're getting somewhere. Chet Holmgren of Minnehaha Academy is rated the #1 recruit in the nation. Bueckers was the #1 recruit last year among the girls/women but this has never happened with a Minnesota boy. Will Tschetter of Stewartville is another terrific ballplayer who might be a PoY candidate in different year, but he's still top 5.

High school girls--My top picks right now are Gianna Kneepkens of Duluth Marshall and a Utah recruit who is scoring more than 40 ppg; and also Maya Nnaji, the junior post who hopes to keep the Hopkins winning streak, now at 71 games, going even in Bueckers' absence.

The current list, then, looks like this.

1. Chet Holmgren, Minnehaha, 7-1, senior, center

2. Marcus Carr, Minnesota Gophers, 6-2, junior, guard

3. Anders Nelson, St. Thomas, 6-0, junior, guard

4. Will Tschetter, Stewartville, 6-8, senior, forward

5. Gianna Kneepkens, Duluth Marshall, 5-11, senior, wing

Team of the Year

1. Hopkins girls--they appear destined to break Fosston's record of 78 straight wins from way back in 2002 and are favored to win their 2nd straight state title (2019, 2021, no champion in 2020).

2. Minnesota Lynx--I have expectations, assuming there's a season.

3. Minnesota-Duluth women--I said when UMD hired Mandy Pearson to look out, and I was right.

4. Minnehaha boys

5. Becker girls--unless DeLaSalle gets it together, nobody is going to challenge Becker.

Coach of the Year

1. You should be able to guess that the favorite is Mandy Pearson, UMD women, currently atop the NSC at 10-0.

2. Cheryl Reeve, Minnesota Lynx, and always the best coach around.

3. Mike Dreier, New London-Spicer girls, #2 in all-time wins, now poised and favored to win a 3rd Class AA state title.

4. Karla Nelson, MN State-Moorhead women

5. John Herbrechtsmeyer, Bethel women

These are the early leaders. Stay tuned as there is sure to be a lot of jockeying as the season (hopefully) progresses.