OK, fans. Who's got the best chance for success in 2018-2019? Here are my top 10 going in.
1. St. Thomas women
The St. Thomas women under coach Ruth Sinn just keep on cookin.’ Can I say that? Last year, they won their 7thregular season title in the 11-year MIAC playoff era and their 7thstraight playoff title (and 8th in 11 years). They now have a 48-game regular season winning streak going in the MIAC and a 14-game winning streak in the playoffs. Add their 2016, 2017 and 2018 playoff wins to their current winning streak and it grows to 54 games. They are 20-8 in the NCAA tournament with a national championship in 2012 and a 2nd in 2017.
The fact is that coach Sinn’s 2nd team could contend for the MIAC title. That (2nd team) might consist of 6-2 junior post Olivia Skibba (2 ppg) from somewhere over in Wisconsin; 5-8 junior forward Sarah Krynski (3 ppg) from Lakeville North; sophomore wings Madi Radtke (5-11, 2 ppg) from Lester Prairie, and Kelsie Cox (5-10, 1 ppg) from Elk River; and at the point guard, 5-8 sophomore Macy Hatlestad (1 ppg) from Alexandria. Radtke and Cox will be stars here eventually.
The first string is Hannah Spaulding, 6-2 senior from Annandale (20 ppg-9 boards-3 blocks); 6-2 junior Elsa Anderson (5 ppg) from Iowa; 5-11 sophomore wing Kaia Porter from Roseville (7 ppg-3 boards-2 assists); and senior guards Lucia Renikoff, 5-9 from Mpls. Washburn (13 ppg-4 boards-2 assists), and Kaylie Brazil, 5-4 from Norwood Young America (7 ppg-3 boards-3 assists).
The only question being debated about the MIAC women is whether the Tommies can make it 74 straight wins in the conference. Don’t bet against it.
2. Minnesota Gopher men
The Gopher men went into the 2017-2018 season with sky-high expectations after winning 11 Big 10 games in 2017, the most since 1997 (or, officially, since 1982). A series of injuries wrecked those hopes. The return of the injured Amir Coffey (Hopkins) raises hopes and expectations but the continuing health woes of big man Eric Curry do not help. So, first, the Gophers will need to get Curry back at full strength in December, as anticipated, and then they all need to stay healthy. And, second, a highly-regarded freshman class will need to contribute. There's some upside here but not much of a margin for error.
Still, 6-6 senior forward Jordan Murphy is the rock, the foundation of this team. He plays more like 6-10 inside and averages 17 ppg and 11 boards. Coffey, a 6-8 guard, on the other hand, plays more like 6-4 and I mean that in a good way. With his unique combination of length and agility, he spreads the floor like nobody else and scored 14 ppg last year while leading the team in assists. Guards Dupree McBrayer and Isaiah Washington bring a mix of skills on the perimeter and Curry is another active big inside.
Then there's guard Marcus Carr, who led Pittsburgh in assists and steals last year and scored 10 mpg. Right now, it's not anticipated that he'll play this year, but an NCAA waiver has not formally been denied. If he's eligible, then move the Gophers up another notch or 2 in the Big Ten.
Then there are the freshmen—6-10 Daniel Oturu (Cretin) and 6-6 Jarvis Omersa (Orono), both rugged inside players—and 6-4 guard Gabe Kalscheur (DeLaSalle), who lit it up for 74 points in 2 high-school all-star games last April. All 3 of them are expected to help right out of the gate. If Curry gets healthy and everyone else stays health and if Carr is eligible, these guys can match the 2017 record of 23-8 and 11-7 and return to the NCAA tournament. But, they are not going to be a really deep team even with Curry and Carr so, again, there's not much margin for error.
3 (tie). North Tartan 2020 EYBL girls
3 (tie). D1 Minnesota 2019 boys
2 really, really awesome AAU club teams from last summer, both of whom one a national championship or 2 somewhere along the way.
4 (tie). Hopkins boys
4 (tie). Hopkins girls
The Hopkins boys under coach Kenny Novak, Jr., won 7 state titles in the 15 years from 2002 to 2015. They have now endured their 2nd longest streak of the 21st century without a state title—which is to say, 2 years. But, what is even more surprising is that they’ve missed the state tournament both years. OK, Wayzata is going to be good again, but the Royals are not going to miss another state tournament—and maybe not even another state title.
As far as I can tell, only one Minnesota high school returns more scoring production than Hopkins with 59 points. 20 of those come from 6-10 beast Zeke Nnaji, and 15 each from point guard Blaise Beauchamp and shooting guard Alijah Davis. Next is East Ridge at 51 points including 40 from bigs Courtney Brown and Ben Carlson. Rochester John Marshall is next at 42, but 34 of them come from 5-star recruit Matthew Hurt. A state tournament trip is not out of the question, but they’re not going to have the balance to go all the way. Park Center and Eden Prairie are also elite.
Either Hurt or Nnaji should be Mr. Basketball come March.
The Hopkins girls have now played in a remarkable seven state championships in eight years. There was plenty of whining when they won four of five titles in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015. The ready answer was, “If you want to beat Hopkins, get better.” Well, surprisingly, they got better, some of them, and Minnetonka in 2016, Elk River in 2017 and Eastview in 2018 upset the Royals in the state final.
Hopkins coach Brian Cosgriff recently allowed that his team “overachieved” in 2016, and that “Elk River was a team of destiny.” The loss to Eastview last year grates a little more, however. He said his team “lacked discipline” in that loss. And, so, today, the advice to Class AAAA teams with state championship ambitions is no longer to “get better” though, of course, it’s still part of the formula. But, now, the most salient advice is that if you want to win, “You’ve still got to go through Hopkins to do it.”
Who might be able to do that? Well, most pundits have Wayzata rated #2 and they’re in the same section as Hopkins. The Trojans “are huge,” Cosgriff said, but he’s got the edge on the perimeter with junior guard Paige Bueckers. She’s still on track to be the best player in Minnesota history, though a state title or two would buff up that resume.
5. Minnehaha boys
Pretty much of a dead lock certainty to win the Class AA state title again. 6-4 junior Jalen Suggs is maybe the #3 or #4 2020 in the country?!
6. Minnesota Gopher women
Enthusiasm for the Gopher women is running high since Lindsay Whalen took over the program. At 24-9, the Gophers won more games last year than at any time since 2005, and they return Honorable Mention All-America point guard Kenisha Bell, now a senior from Bloomington Kennedy. Bell is quick-on-quick and scored 20 ppg with 5 boards, 7 assists and 3 steals per game a year ago. Sophomore forward Destiny Pitts also returns after scoring 13 ppg and leading the Gophers on the boards with 7 per game. However, junior guard Gadiva Hubbard will be out for the 1st 1/3 of the season, hopefully no more with a knee injury, after scoring 14 ppg last year. That is a big problem, because the Gophers will also miss Carlie Wagner’s (New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva) 19 ppg and 43% shooting, and the size of departed posts Jessie Edwards (6-3) and Bryanna Fernstrom (6-5, Chisago Lakes).
But freshmen Delaynie Byrnes, a 6-2 forward from Colorado, and Mercedes Staples, a 5-10 guard from Utah, are both expected to contribute right away.
A repeat of 24-9 and 11-5 in the Big 10, with a return to the NCAA tournament, is not out of reach. I mean, it might be a stretch but, with Lindsay Whalen at the helm, well, you know that the coach is ambitious, so why not us fans, too?
7. Bethel men
This is shocking! St. Thomas had won 12 straight MIAC regular season titles, including 10 of 10 in the playoff era. They were 176-24 in the regular season over those 10 years (211-29 over 12), and 14-4 in the 10 MIAC playoffs and 20-8 in the NCAA playoffs with national championships in 2011 (under coach Steve Fritz) and 2016 (under Johnny Tauer). Then, suddenly, last year they dropped to 12-8 and 5thplace, their worst performance since 9-11 and 6thplace in 2006.
St. John’s filled the gap, jumping from 13 wins in 2017 to 19-1 in 2018. They expect to be in the mix again in 2019 with David Stokman, a 6-2 senior guard from Maple Lake, who scored 14 ppg last year; Jubis Alide, a 6-4 junior wing from Armstrong (11 ppg); and Lucas Walford, a 6-8 junior from New Prague (9 ppg).
St. Olaf and Bethel may have better threesomes returning, however. The Olies return Austin Korba, a 6-5 senior wing from Apple Valley (14 ppg); Nate Albers, 6-4 wing from Montevideo (13 ppg) and Troy Diggins, 6-3 junior guard from Mounds View (8 ppg). Bethel returns Matt Ambriz, 6-2 senior guard from Woodbury (13 ppg); Jack Jensen, 6-1 junior guard from Southwest Christian (11 ppg); Derek Magnuson, 6-7 senior post from Roseville (10 ppg); and Iowan Granger Kingland (14 ppg).
Augsburg and Gustavus, along with the Tommies, should grab the last three playoff slots, but Bethel and St. John’s seem to be best equipped to advance to the MIAC playoff finals and the NCAA tournament. We're going out on a limb a little bit to pick Bethel to win the MIAC, but we know they'll be a contender.
8. Minnesota-Moorhead women
Minnesota women’s teams in the Northern Sun have fallen on hard times—at least, relatively speaking—of late, with the exception of Minnesota State-Moorhead under head coach Karla Nelson. The Dragons’ went 19-3 and 23-6 last year and return guard Jacky Volkert (Mounds View), center Megan Hintz (Dover-Eyota), wing Kiley Borowicz (Roseau) and backup post Madi Green (Lake City). 19-3 and 23-6 again is not out of reach.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
I have previously opined re. the Timberwolves chances for 2018-2019, wherein I said that .500 would be pretty much as good as it gets. I just saw a stat, however, that reinforces that point-of-view. One of the upsides for the Wolves was that Jimmy Butler would decide that being a Timberwolf was a good deal. Now, I see that in fact the Wolves are a full 10 points better per 100 possessions without Butler than they are with.
10. St. John’s Johnnies
See above where I mentioned the Johnnies along with Bethel and others.
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