EDIT March 10: Like everyone, I missed Rochester Mayo over Lakeville North and, like a lot of people, I missed Osseo over Roseville. But I got #2 Anoka over #1 Forest Lake in 7AAAA.
-----
Hopkins is the 1 of 3 teams vying for a 3-peat and, frankly, their the most likely to get it done. Maranatha has already lost to Mountain Iron-Buhl, their likely opponent in the Class A final. DeLaSalle is only rated #5 in QRF and #2 in the AP poll. Though, in truth, I think both will repeat.
And it's true that Hopkins, too, is rated #2 in the AP poll behind Kennedy. But Kennedy lost to Eastview last night for a 3rd loss, and they will not be rated #1 next week. Hopkins will.
Section 1--Lakeville North is a virtual shoo-in in a section that is otherwise made up primarily of non-metro teams. The big question of the day, of course, is why Lakeville NORTH is in the southern Minny section and Lakeville SOUTH is in the metro section. What up wit' dat'? But that's the way it is so Lakeville North (#10 QRF, 17-7) gets the nod.
Section 2--Bloomington Kennedy (#3, 21-3) is rated #1 in the AP poll, like I said, but lost last night. Kenisha Bell has been out with a HAND injury but she came back in last night's loss. I didn't see the game but she scored just 9 points and I'm guessing she's not 100 percent. But probably will be a month from now. If that's the case, they'll win in Section 2. If not, Edina (#4, 20-4) and guard MC McGrory move up.
Section 3--Eastview (#5, 23-1) and guard Maddy Guebert are a shoo-in though I really like Park of Cottage Grove with guards Larissa Lurken and Sydney Lamberty. But Eastview's level? No. Park does not match up with Tyra Johnson and Hana Metoxen in the front-court. Not many do.
Section 4--St. Paul Central (#17, 21-4) is the favorite though QRF likes Woodbury. White Bear Lake matches up with Central better but can't seem to figure Woodbury out (Woodbury swept the season series). EDIT: That's not correct, they split. White Bear could be an upset special here.
Section 5--Roseville (#6, 22-2) is the pick over Centennial but that would be a heckuva game.
Section 6--Hopkins (#1, 22-1) should get by Minnetonka without too much trouble.
Section 7--A weak section but I cannot decide between Forest Lake (#13, 18-6) and Anoka (#18, 16-8). Anoka seems to have more weapons and the 2 extra losses can be understood entirely as an artifact of tougher conference competition (Forest Lake in the Suburban East, Anoka in the Northwest Suburban). So I guess I like Anoka.
Section 8--St. Michael-Albertville (#7, 19-4) remains the prohibitive fave despite the recent loss to Monticello.
Seeds
1. Hopkins
2. Eastview
3. Kennedy or Roseville
4. Roseville or Edina
5. St. Paul Central
Match-Ups
Wild guesses as to the random draw.
Hopkins vs. Anoka. No contest.
Eastview vs. Lakeville North. No contest.
Kennedy vs. St. Michael-Albertville. Kennedy by 10.
Roseville vs. Central. Roseville by 5.
Semis and Finals
Hopkins over Roseville by 8
Eastview vs. Kennedy depends on Kenisha Bell. If she's 90 percent Kennedy, if she's less than that Eastview.
Hopkins repeats. Eastview or Kennedy takes 3rd place.
All-Tournament
C- Tyra Johnson, Eastview, more of a power forward but she's best of the "bigs" so gotta have her.
F- Jade Martin, Kennedy
F- Nia Coffey, Hopkins
G- Maddy Guebert, Eastview
G- Kenisha Bell, Kennedy, if she's 90-95 percent or more; or Jaqlyn Poss, Roseville, or Taylor Stewart, Lakeville North, if she's not.
The Overall All-Tournament Team (All Classes)
C- Savanna Trapp, Esko, 6-9, senior
PF- Jade Martin, Bloomington Kennedy, 6-2, senior
SF- Tyseanna Johnson, DeLaSalle, 5-10, senior
PG- Allina Starr, DeLaSalle, 5-9, senior
SG- Carlie Wagner, New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva, 5-10, junior
2nd Team
C- Elle Thompson, Chaska, 6-2, junior
PF- Tyra Johnson, Eastview, 5-11, senior
SF- Nia Coffey, Hopkins, 5-11, senior
PG- Kenisha Bell, Bloomington Kennedy, 5-8, junior
SG- Maddie Geubert, Eastview, 5-8, sophomore
3rd Team
C- Taylor Reiss, Minneota, 6-1, sophomore
PF- Kylie Brown, Simley, 6-3, junior
SF- Natalie Ratliff, Providence, 6-1, senior
PG- Jaqlyn Poss, Roseville, 5-8, senior
SG- Bailey Strand, Fergus Falls, 5-8, junior
4th Team
C- Onye Osemenam, Maranatha, 6-1, senior
PF- Allie Knuti, Mountain Iron-Buhl, 6-1, senior
SF- Taylor Finley, Providence, 6-0, senior
PG- Leah Szabla, Providence, 5-10, senior
SG- Brianna Rasmussen, Fergus Falls, 5-9, junior
Coaches of the Year
These are not my final picks, these are forecasts based on how I foresee the state tournaments coming out.
AAAA--Brian Cosgriff, Hopkins. Remember they lost both starting guards. Melissa Guebert, Eastview, is #2.
AAA--Tara Seifert, Chaska, edges out Erin Herman, Hill-Murray, who almost gets a young team to the tournament.
AA--Bill Gottenborg, Hawley with Josh Thurow, Minnehaha, second.
A--Jeff Buffetta, Mountain Iron-Buhl, ahead of Tammy Filzen, Faribault Bethlehem.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Girls State Tournament Preview--Class AAA
EDIT: Like most people, I missed Hill-Murray over Simley. Like a few, I also missed Richfield over Chaska.
-----
2-time defending state champ DeLaSalle is rated #2 in the AP poll behind undefeated Fergus Falls, and is just #5 in the QRF ratings behind #1 Richfield, Chaska, Monticello and Mankato East, while Fergus is just #7 in QRF also trailing #6 New Prague.
Add it all up and DeLaSalle would seem to be a prohibitive favorite to win coach Faith Patterson's 8th state title. I say that partly because QRF doesn't like DeLaSalle's Tri-Metro Conference schedule, and there's something to that. DeLaSalle really ought to be playing tougher competition. But the Islanders play a tough-enough non-conference schedule that there's no question they'll be ready for the rigors of state tournament competition. I mean, hello, they've already done it twice running. Their only losses are to #1, 2 and 3AAAA Hopkins, Eastview and Kennedy.
Still, Richfield and Fergus make this a solid AAA field so hopefully the day-in, day-out competition at Target and Williams will be better than it has been. Class AAA seeds so there's some guesswork as to the quarter-final match-ups.
Class AAA, Wednesday, March 13, Williams Arena
Section 1--Red Wing (#11 QRF, 17-6) looks like a shoo-in here. Senior guard Tesha Buck leads the way.
Section 2--This should be an exciting Section with Mankato East (#4, 20-3), New Prague (#6, 17-6) and Marshall (#20, 22-3) contending. (They're rated #5, 6 and 7 in the AP poll--Mankato East #5, Marshall #6 and New Prague #7. I like New Prague which has, after all, already beaten Mankato East 69-56, while East in turn defeated Marshall 69-61. I get that these scores don't guarantee anything, but I do like them in that order. The Trojans are led by guard Annie Dittberner and post Lexi Reuhling.
Section 3--This is DeLaSalle's (#5, 21-3) bailiwick. And again don't let the #5 and 3 losses fool you. #5 is due to the Tri-Metro Conference's perennial weakness which has never held the Islanders back yet, and the 3 losses are to Hopkins, Eastview and Kennedy. Tyseanna Johnson and Allina Starr are both BCS recruits. Look out.
Section 4--Simley (#9, 19-5) is favored and why not, with 6-1 Abby Kain and 6-3 Kylie Brown leading the way. But they defeated an improving Hill-Murray team just 43-41 at home recently and have a road game at Hill-Murray remaining. So this pick could change.
Section 5--Monticello (#3, 20-4) and guard Grace Sawatzke lead the way. Lightly regarded until a recent 49-48 win over AAAA St. Michael-Albertville, suddenly they're now in the running for a seed.
Section 6--Richfield (#1, 20-3) and Chaska (#2, 19-5) make this the toughest section in the state, regardless of class. It will be a terribly shame for either of these teams to stay at home. But I'll go against the grain and pick Chaska. 6-2 Elle Thompson has been coming on like gangbusters the past month.
Section 7--Chisago Lakes (#14, 17-7) is the star of a weak section. 6-5 Bryanna Fernstrom gives 'em a shot at any level.
Section 8--Fergus Falls (#7, 22-0) is the obvious favorite. They've already beaten the #2 team in the section, Thief River Falls. Guards Brianna Rasmussen and Bailey Strand are one of the state's best duos regardless of class. Like DeLaSalle, Fergus' QRF reflects schedule strength, not the Otters' actual promise. But their #1 in the AP poll is too high as DeLaSalle will demo in the state final.
Seeds
1. Fergus Falls
2. DeLaSalle
3. Chaska
4. Monticello
5. Simley
Match-Ups
Fergus Falls vs. Chisago Lakes. Fergus by 10.
DeLaSalle vs. New Prague. No contest.
Chaska vs. Red Wing. Each team won at home in the Missota Conference. Chaska by 6.
Monticello vs. Simley. Simley by 2.
Semis and Finals
Fergus and DeLaSalle advance to the finals. The Islanders beat Chaska by 6 in the semi and Fergus by 10 in the final. Chaska knocks off Simley for 3rd.
All-Tournament
C- Elle Thompson, Chaska
F- Kylie Brown, Simley
F- Tyseanna Johnson, DeLaSalle
G- Allina Starr, DeLaSalle
G- Bailey Strand or Brianna Rasmussen, Fergus Falls
-----
2-time defending state champ DeLaSalle is rated #2 in the AP poll behind undefeated Fergus Falls, and is just #5 in the QRF ratings behind #1 Richfield, Chaska, Monticello and Mankato East, while Fergus is just #7 in QRF also trailing #6 New Prague.
Add it all up and DeLaSalle would seem to be a prohibitive favorite to win coach Faith Patterson's 8th state title. I say that partly because QRF doesn't like DeLaSalle's Tri-Metro Conference schedule, and there's something to that. DeLaSalle really ought to be playing tougher competition. But the Islanders play a tough-enough non-conference schedule that there's no question they'll be ready for the rigors of state tournament competition. I mean, hello, they've already done it twice running. Their only losses are to #1, 2 and 3AAAA Hopkins, Eastview and Kennedy.
Still, Richfield and Fergus make this a solid AAA field so hopefully the day-in, day-out competition at Target and Williams will be better than it has been. Class AAA seeds so there's some guesswork as to the quarter-final match-ups.
Class AAA, Wednesday, March 13, Williams Arena
Section 1--Red Wing (#11 QRF, 17-6) looks like a shoo-in here. Senior guard Tesha Buck leads the way.
Section 2--This should be an exciting Section with Mankato East (#4, 20-3), New Prague (#6, 17-6) and Marshall (#20, 22-3) contending. (They're rated #5, 6 and 7 in the AP poll--Mankato East #5, Marshall #6 and New Prague #7. I like New Prague which has, after all, already beaten Mankato East 69-56, while East in turn defeated Marshall 69-61. I get that these scores don't guarantee anything, but I do like them in that order. The Trojans are led by guard Annie Dittberner and post Lexi Reuhling.
Section 3--This is DeLaSalle's (#5, 21-3) bailiwick. And again don't let the #5 and 3 losses fool you. #5 is due to the Tri-Metro Conference's perennial weakness which has never held the Islanders back yet, and the 3 losses are to Hopkins, Eastview and Kennedy. Tyseanna Johnson and Allina Starr are both BCS recruits. Look out.
Section 4--Simley (#9, 19-5) is favored and why not, with 6-1 Abby Kain and 6-3 Kylie Brown leading the way. But they defeated an improving Hill-Murray team just 43-41 at home recently and have a road game at Hill-Murray remaining. So this pick could change.
Section 5--Monticello (#3, 20-4) and guard Grace Sawatzke lead the way. Lightly regarded until a recent 49-48 win over AAAA St. Michael-Albertville, suddenly they're now in the running for a seed.
Section 6--Richfield (#1, 20-3) and Chaska (#2, 19-5) make this the toughest section in the state, regardless of class. It will be a terribly shame for either of these teams to stay at home. But I'll go against the grain and pick Chaska. 6-2 Elle Thompson has been coming on like gangbusters the past month.
Section 7--Chisago Lakes (#14, 17-7) is the star of a weak section. 6-5 Bryanna Fernstrom gives 'em a shot at any level.
Section 8--Fergus Falls (#7, 22-0) is the obvious favorite. They've already beaten the #2 team in the section, Thief River Falls. Guards Brianna Rasmussen and Bailey Strand are one of the state's best duos regardless of class. Like DeLaSalle, Fergus' QRF reflects schedule strength, not the Otters' actual promise. But their #1 in the AP poll is too high as DeLaSalle will demo in the state final.
Seeds
1. Fergus Falls
2. DeLaSalle
3. Chaska
4. Monticello
5. Simley
Match-Ups
Fergus Falls vs. Chisago Lakes. Fergus by 10.
DeLaSalle vs. New Prague. No contest.
Chaska vs. Red Wing. Each team won at home in the Missota Conference. Chaska by 6.
Monticello vs. Simley. Simley by 2.
Semis and Finals
Fergus and DeLaSalle advance to the finals. The Islanders beat Chaska by 6 in the semi and Fergus by 10 in the final. Chaska knocks off Simley for 3rd.
All-Tournament
C- Elle Thompson, Chaska
F- Kylie Brown, Simley
F- Tyseanna Johnson, DeLaSalle
G- Allina Starr, DeLaSalle
G- Bailey Strand or Brianna Rasmussen, Fergus Falls
Girls State Tournament Preview--Class AA EDITED Feb. 25
EDIT: Dover-Eyota and Hawley are out, both ousted in the section semis. Dover-Eyota lost to Pine Island in OT, #1 seed Hawley was shocked by #5 Wadena by 5. They are the only 2 of my 32 state tournament picks who are out with 1 week to go to the last of the section finals.
EDIT March 10: I also missed BOLD and Mpls. Washburn, but I got Sauk Centre and Braham over Esko.
----------
Providence is one of 4 defending state champions that could conceivably repeat this year. What is almost inconceivable is that the Lions might not repeat this year. New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva should be back with Carlie Wagner, but it's still a 5-on-5 game and the Lions' 5 look well-nigh unbeatable.
Class AA, Wednesday, March 13 at Target Center and Williams Arena
At Target Center
6 p.m., Section 1 vs. Section 5
Dover-Eyota (#14 QRF, 23-3) looks to be the sacrificial lamb to the Lions of Providence (#1, 19-4), though Section 1 is deeper than deep, with Pine Island (21-5), Caledonia (19-7) and Chatfield (17-7) all contending. But DE's Sarah Pease and Brandi Blattner give the Eagles an edge.
In Section 5 there are no challengers to Providence. Annandale (#2, 18-5) and Jordan (#19, 19-4) deserve a better shot but as it is they have virtually none. Leah Szabla, Natalie Ratliff, Taylor Finley and company could play up a class and still contend.
8 p.m. Section 3 vs. Section 7
Too bad the Section 7 final, probably Esko (#3, 20-2) and Braham (#7, 23-0) can't be played here, now. Esko, with 6-9 Savanna Trapp, and Braham, with likely Ms. Basketball Rebekah Dahlman, are 2 of the most exciting teams in Class AA. (Providence might be the best, but on the excitement scale not so much.) Either will be a solid favorite over the Section 3 rep. EDIT: But right now Esko's Trapp is out with an injured toe and until and unless she returns full strength, then I'm switching to Braham. Their opponent probably will be Worthington (#25, 17-5). On paper, the Trojans don't look like much but the fact is they've already defeated their top challengers, BOLD (21-3) and Martin County West (20-4).
At Williams Arena
6 p.m. Section 4 vs. Section 6
This will be an intriguing matchup of the big city school, probably either Mpls. Washburn (#6, 17-6) or Minnehaha (#12, 17-6), versus the small school team, which could be any 1 of 4 contenders--Staples-Motley (#4, 18-4), Albany (#5, 20-3), New London-Spicer (#9, 19-4) or Sauk Centre (#10, 21-1). I'll go with Minnehaha and Sauk, who met in the 2011 semi-final, Minnehaha winning 50-43. Neither is a stranger to the state tournament in recent years. Minnehaha's depth--with Nicole Nipper, 9th grader Sarah Kaminski and Chloe Gunderson all capable of scoring in bunches--is the difference, though Sauk's Macy Weller is the best player on this court.
8 p.m. Section 2 vs. Section 8
New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva (#9, 24-1) should waltz into the state semis if not the final. Well, it won't be a waltz but Carlie Wagner, possibly already the best player in the state in any class, will make it seem that way. They'll meet the representative of Section 8. Most of the year, that looked like Crookston (#7, 16-5) but lately it looks more like Hawley (#13, 17-4) who in fact beat Crookston 40-37 a couple weeks ago. Further, the Pirates have lost 3 of 6.
Semi-Finals and Finals
Providence and NHREG are prohibitive favorites to advance to the finals, where Providence is the prohibitive favorite. I can't predict an upset.
Braham beats Minnehaha for 3rd place.
All-Tournament
C- Katie Nickles, Braham
F- Natalie Ratliff, Providence
F- Taylor Finley, Providence
G- Carlie Wagner, NRHEG
G- Rebekah Dahlman, Braham
EDIT March 10: I also missed BOLD and Mpls. Washburn, but I got Sauk Centre and Braham over Esko.
----------
Providence is one of 4 defending state champions that could conceivably repeat this year. What is almost inconceivable is that the Lions might not repeat this year. New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva should be back with Carlie Wagner, but it's still a 5-on-5 game and the Lions' 5 look well-nigh unbeatable.
Class AA, Wednesday, March 13 at Target Center and Williams Arena
At Target Center
6 p.m., Section 1 vs. Section 5
Dover-Eyota (#14 QRF, 23-3) looks to be the sacrificial lamb to the Lions of Providence (#1, 19-4), though Section 1 is deeper than deep, with Pine Island (21-5), Caledonia (19-7) and Chatfield (17-7) all contending. But DE's Sarah Pease and Brandi Blattner give the Eagles an edge.
In Section 5 there are no challengers to Providence. Annandale (#2, 18-5) and Jordan (#19, 19-4) deserve a better shot but as it is they have virtually none. Leah Szabla, Natalie Ratliff, Taylor Finley and company could play up a class and still contend.
8 p.m. Section 3 vs. Section 7
Too bad the Section 7 final, probably Esko (#3, 20-2) and Braham (#7, 23-0) can't be played here, now. Esko, with 6-9 Savanna Trapp, and Braham, with likely Ms. Basketball Rebekah Dahlman, are 2 of the most exciting teams in Class AA. (Providence might be the best, but on the excitement scale not so much.) Either will be a solid favorite over the Section 3 rep. EDIT: But right now Esko's Trapp is out with an injured toe and until and unless she returns full strength, then I'm switching to Braham. Their opponent probably will be Worthington (#25, 17-5). On paper, the Trojans don't look like much but the fact is they've already defeated their top challengers, BOLD (21-3) and Martin County West (20-4).
At Williams Arena
6 p.m. Section 4 vs. Section 6
This will be an intriguing matchup of the big city school, probably either Mpls. Washburn (#6, 17-6) or Minnehaha (#12, 17-6), versus the small school team, which could be any 1 of 4 contenders--Staples-Motley (#4, 18-4), Albany (#5, 20-3), New London-Spicer (#9, 19-4) or Sauk Centre (#10, 21-1). I'll go with Minnehaha and Sauk, who met in the 2011 semi-final, Minnehaha winning 50-43. Neither is a stranger to the state tournament in recent years. Minnehaha's depth--with Nicole Nipper, 9th grader Sarah Kaminski and Chloe Gunderson all capable of scoring in bunches--is the difference, though Sauk's Macy Weller is the best player on this court.
8 p.m. Section 2 vs. Section 8
New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva (#9, 24-1) should waltz into the state semis if not the final. Well, it won't be a waltz but Carlie Wagner, possibly already the best player in the state in any class, will make it seem that way. They'll meet the representative of Section 8. Most of the year, that looked like Crookston (#7, 16-5) but lately it looks more like Hawley (#13, 17-4) who in fact beat Crookston 40-37 a couple weeks ago. Further, the Pirates have lost 3 of 6.
Semi-Finals and Finals
Providence and NHREG are prohibitive favorites to advance to the finals, where Providence is the prohibitive favorite. I can't predict an upset.
Braham beats Minnehaha for 3rd place.
All-Tournament
C- Katie Nickles, Braham
F- Natalie Ratliff, Providence
F- Taylor Finley, Providence
G- Carlie Wagner, NRHEG
G- Rebekah Dahlman, Braham
Girls State Tournament Preview--Class A EDIT
EDIT March 5: Isle is my 1st pick to go away, losing to Pine River Backus 60-52 in a section 5A semi-final. Clearbrook-Gonvick, who I labelled a threat but not a favorite in section 8A also went down on Tuesday night.
EDIT March 10: I got everything else right include #2 Ada over #1 Parkers Prairie in 6A.
-----
We're about a month away and it's not too early to anticipate what we might see at Target Center and Williams Arena.
Class A Thursday March 14 Williams Arena
11 a.m. Section 1 vs. Section 5
Section 1 should be represented by #1A (QRF) Goodhue (20-5) or #3A (AP poll) Faribault Bethlehem (20-4). I'll go with BA because they won at Goodhue 60-57 about 10 days ago. Either way you'll see a superb Class A guard in BA's Jessica Mathews or Goodhue's Mikayla Miller. Blooming Prairie (16-8 with a win at Faribault BA) and defending section champion Spring Grove (20-6) are also threats. The Section 1 rep will probably be favored versus the Section 5 rep, especially if it's 1 of the big 2.
The Section 5 rep will either be Isle (#8 QRF, 18-5) or Upsala (#13, 19-3). Upsala defeated Isle 52-48 but that was at Upsala way back on January 3. Either way you'll see a superb Class A guard in Isle's Andrea Zimpel or Upsala's Jamie Pelzer. But then again Pine River-Backus (19-3), led by superb Class A guard Tatum Sheley, could surprise. Probably the most competitive Class A section.
1 p.m. Section 3 vs. Section 7
It's a shame Class A doesn't seed because Minneota (#7 QRF, 22-2) and Mountain Iron-Buhl (#3 QRF, 22-2) would surely be among the top 4 or 5 teams. MIB would be #1 or #2, Minneota #4 or #5. Of course, 1st they have to get here.
In Section 7, MIB will have to avenge a loss at North Woods (20-2) but that's exactly what happened last year. MIB lost to North Woods during the regular season, then won the Section 7 title (though they didn't actually beat North Woods; North Woods lost to Barnum, who then lost to MIB). MIB will bring 1 of the state's most dynamic guard groups to the tournament, with 8th graders Mya Buffetta and Chelsea Mason in the starting roles.
Minneota counters with 6-2 center Taylor Reiss. As a hoops fan, I must say it's a shame she's more committed to volleyball because she is not much short of spectacular on a basketball court. And it's a shame that either of these 2 teams won't be in the semi-finals of Class A.
3 p.m. Section 4 vs. Section 6
2-time defending state champ Maranatha (#2 QRF, 20-4) looks like a lock in Section 4 while Section 6 looks highly competitive. You may interpret that to mean that Maranatha looks like a lock to advance at least to the state semis, and you'd be right.
Parkers Prairie (#6, 19-1) and Ada-Borup (#18, 20-2) are both perennial powers associated with John, Sari and now Micaela Noga (Parkers) and Dave, Nicole and Kelli Smart (Ada) over the years. But despite still having a Noga on the roster versus no Smart girls for Ada anymore, and despite Parkers' higher rating, I kinda like Ada, partly on the basis of their recent rout at highly regarded Win-E-Mac. That and the fact that no team ever comes into a game better prepared than a Smart team. But, unfortunately, all the preparation in the world is not going to be enough to overcome Maranatha's talent advantage at state.
5 p.m. Section 2 vs. Section 8
Probably the weakest match-up of the day, I'll probably be bailing after the 1st 3 games to head over to Target for the Class AAAA semis. Sorry.
The likely match-up is newcomers Mankato Loyola (#5 QRF, 22-2) and Win-E-Mac (#15, 21-1), though Clearbrook-Gonvick (#26, 20-2) is also a threat in Section 8. Still, I'll go with Win-E-Mac both in Section 8 and in this quarter-final match-up. Win-E-Mac has 2 genuine go-to players in junior forward Shelby Kaster and 9th grade guard Madison McKeever. Loyola is led by coach's daughters Lindsay (8th grade) and Jordyn (11th) Theuninck, and 11th graders Aunikah Bastian and Annie Nawrocki, but none of them is the equal to Kaster or McKeever. So 2014 is more their year.
Semi-Finals and Finals
Mountain Iron-Buhl and Maranatha, assuming they get that far, are prohibitive faves to get to the final, which will be a replay of last year's 49-37 Maranatha win. This year, MIB has already defeated Maranatha 65-57 at MIB. So this year's game will be higher scoring than last year, but on a neutral court I think Maranatha will repeat, let's say 53-51.
BA beats Win-E-Mac for 3rd place.
All-Tournament
This is my all-tournament team.
C- Taylor Reiss, Minneota. Probably won't make all-tournament as a result of the 1st round loss, but the fact is she'll be the best player in the field.
C- Onye Osemenam, Maranatha
F- Allie Knuti, Mountain Iron-Buhl
G- Maddy Lee, Maranatha
G- Chelsea Mason, Mountain Iron-Buhl
EDIT March 10: I got everything else right include #2 Ada over #1 Parkers Prairie in 6A.
-----
We're about a month away and it's not too early to anticipate what we might see at Target Center and Williams Arena.
Class A Thursday March 14 Williams Arena
11 a.m. Section 1 vs. Section 5
Section 1 should be represented by #1A (QRF) Goodhue (20-5) or #3A (AP poll) Faribault Bethlehem (20-4). I'll go with BA because they won at Goodhue 60-57 about 10 days ago. Either way you'll see a superb Class A guard in BA's Jessica Mathews or Goodhue's Mikayla Miller. Blooming Prairie (16-8 with a win at Faribault BA) and defending section champion Spring Grove (20-6) are also threats. The Section 1 rep will probably be favored versus the Section 5 rep, especially if it's 1 of the big 2.
The Section 5 rep will either be Isle (#8 QRF, 18-5) or Upsala (#13, 19-3). Upsala defeated Isle 52-48 but that was at Upsala way back on January 3. Either way you'll see a superb Class A guard in Isle's Andrea Zimpel or Upsala's Jamie Pelzer. But then again Pine River-Backus (19-3), led by superb Class A guard Tatum Sheley, could surprise. Probably the most competitive Class A section.
1 p.m. Section 3 vs. Section 7
It's a shame Class A doesn't seed because Minneota (#7 QRF, 22-2) and Mountain Iron-Buhl (#3 QRF, 22-2) would surely be among the top 4 or 5 teams. MIB would be #1 or #2, Minneota #4 or #5. Of course, 1st they have to get here.
In Section 7, MIB will have to avenge a loss at North Woods (20-2) but that's exactly what happened last year. MIB lost to North Woods during the regular season, then won the Section 7 title (though they didn't actually beat North Woods; North Woods lost to Barnum, who then lost to MIB). MIB will bring 1 of the state's most dynamic guard groups to the tournament, with 8th graders Mya Buffetta and Chelsea Mason in the starting roles.
Minneota counters with 6-2 center Taylor Reiss. As a hoops fan, I must say it's a shame she's more committed to volleyball because she is not much short of spectacular on a basketball court. And it's a shame that either of these 2 teams won't be in the semi-finals of Class A.
3 p.m. Section 4 vs. Section 6
2-time defending state champ Maranatha (#2 QRF, 20-4) looks like a lock in Section 4 while Section 6 looks highly competitive. You may interpret that to mean that Maranatha looks like a lock to advance at least to the state semis, and you'd be right.
Parkers Prairie (#6, 19-1) and Ada-Borup (#18, 20-2) are both perennial powers associated with John, Sari and now Micaela Noga (Parkers) and Dave, Nicole and Kelli Smart (Ada) over the years. But despite still having a Noga on the roster versus no Smart girls for Ada anymore, and despite Parkers' higher rating, I kinda like Ada, partly on the basis of their recent rout at highly regarded Win-E-Mac. That and the fact that no team ever comes into a game better prepared than a Smart team. But, unfortunately, all the preparation in the world is not going to be enough to overcome Maranatha's talent advantage at state.
5 p.m. Section 2 vs. Section 8
Probably the weakest match-up of the day, I'll probably be bailing after the 1st 3 games to head over to Target for the Class AAAA semis. Sorry.
The likely match-up is newcomers Mankato Loyola (#5 QRF, 22-2) and Win-E-Mac (#15, 21-1), though Clearbrook-Gonvick (#26, 20-2) is also a threat in Section 8. Still, I'll go with Win-E-Mac both in Section 8 and in this quarter-final match-up. Win-E-Mac has 2 genuine go-to players in junior forward Shelby Kaster and 9th grade guard Madison McKeever. Loyola is led by coach's daughters Lindsay (8th grade) and Jordyn (11th) Theuninck, and 11th graders Aunikah Bastian and Annie Nawrocki, but none of them is the equal to Kaster or McKeever. So 2014 is more their year.
Semi-Finals and Finals
Mountain Iron-Buhl and Maranatha, assuming they get that far, are prohibitive faves to get to the final, which will be a replay of last year's 49-37 Maranatha win. This year, MIB has already defeated Maranatha 65-57 at MIB. So this year's game will be higher scoring than last year, but on a neutral court I think Maranatha will repeat, let's say 53-51.
BA beats Win-E-Mac for 3rd place.
All-Tournament
This is my all-tournament team.
C- Taylor Reiss, Minneota. Probably won't make all-tournament as a result of the 1st round loss, but the fact is she'll be the best player in the field.
C- Onye Osemenam, Maranatha
F- Allie Knuti, Mountain Iron-Buhl
G- Maddy Lee, Maranatha
G- Chelsea Mason, Mountain Iron-Buhl
Saturday, March 9, 2013
NSIC Gets 7 NCAA D2 Tournament Slots; In Action Next Weekend March 15-19
The Northern Sun got 7 slots in the upcoming NCAA D2 tournament--4 for the men, and 3 for the women.
The Women
The women will play in the Central Region at Washburn, KA, beginning Friday March 15 and continuing on Saturday and Monday.
Concordia St. Paul (23-6, #1S during the regular season and a conference playoff semi-finalist) will play Augustana (24-6, #3S and conference playoff champion) in one 1st round game.
Minnesota State Mankato (25-5) will play Arkansas Tech. The winners advance to the 2nd round on Saturday night. The host, Washburn, is 23-5, suggesting that this could be a wide open region. 1 team will emerge from the 8 team region after 3 rounds of play, and will advance to the Elite 8.
The Men
4 men's teams will play, as in the Central Region, but this tournament is at Mankato, beginning on Saturday March 16 and continuing on Sunday and Tuesday March 17 and 19. 1 team will emerge from the 8 team region after 3 rounds of play and advance to the Elite 8.
The Minnesota State Mankato men (26-4) will also open play against Arkansas Tech. NSIC foes Augustana (21-8) and Upper Iowa (20-11) will play one another in the 1st round, and Winona State (24-7) will play Northeastern (MO) State. The 4 NSIC teams are seeded #1 (Mankato), #2, #3 and #6 in the region.
Personally, I think St. Cloud State or Bemidji State deserved to be in the tournament ahead of Upper Iowa. St. Cloud won the North Division but lost to Upper Iowa in the 1st round of the playoffs to finish at 20-8. Bemidji upset Winona and Upper Iowa to get to the NSIC playoff final before losing to Mankato to finish 18-12. Upper Iowa finished #4 in the South Division.
The Women
The women will play in the Central Region at Washburn, KA, beginning Friday March 15 and continuing on Saturday and Monday.
Concordia St. Paul (23-6, #1S during the regular season and a conference playoff semi-finalist) will play Augustana (24-6, #3S and conference playoff champion) in one 1st round game.
Minnesota State Mankato (25-5) will play Arkansas Tech. The winners advance to the 2nd round on Saturday night. The host, Washburn, is 23-5, suggesting that this could be a wide open region. 1 team will emerge from the 8 team region after 3 rounds of play, and will advance to the Elite 8.
The Men
4 men's teams will play, as in the Central Region, but this tournament is at Mankato, beginning on Saturday March 16 and continuing on Sunday and Tuesday March 17 and 19. 1 team will emerge from the 8 team region after 3 rounds of play and advance to the Elite 8.
The Minnesota State Mankato men (26-4) will also open play against Arkansas Tech. NSIC foes Augustana (21-8) and Upper Iowa (20-11) will play one another in the 1st round, and Winona State (24-7) will play Northeastern (MO) State. The 4 NSIC teams are seeded #1 (Mankato), #2, #3 and #6 in the region.
Personally, I think St. Cloud State or Bemidji State deserved to be in the tournament ahead of Upper Iowa. St. Cloud won the North Division but lost to Upper Iowa in the 1st round of the playoffs to finish at 20-8. Bemidji upset Winona and Upper Iowa to get to the NSIC playoff final before losing to Mankato to finish 18-12. Upper Iowa finished #4 in the South Division.
MSHSL Announces New 2013-2015 Sections
The MSHSL announced new sections for the 2013-14 and 2014-15 school years today. I've only looked at the basketball sections. The changes are fairly minimal unless you happen to be 1 of the schools that changed sections...or classes.
Class AAAA
As best as I can tell only 1 school moved into or out of Class AAAA: Chaska moved from 2AAA to 2AAAA. No Class AAAA school moved down to AAA.
But there were some significant changes within AAAA:
Eden Prairie and Edina moved from 2AAAA, where they faced Kennedy among others, to 6AAAA, where they will face Hopkins.
In return Cooper and Wayzata move from 6AAAA to 2AAAA.
Meanwhile, Burnsville moves from 3AAAA to 2AAAA; Cretin-Derham Hall from 4AAAA to 3AAAA; Roseville from 5AAAA to 4AAAA, where they will now mostly face their Suburban East opponents instead of mostly Northwest Suburban foes; and Coon Rapids from 5AAAA to 7AAAA.
If next year's sections were in place this year there would probably be no change in state tournament entries. The only possible change would be if Roseville might defeat St. Paul Central.
Class AAA
In addition to Chaska departing Class AAA (moving upward), the following schools move from AAA to AA:
• Glencoe from 2AAA to 2AA
• Mpls. Roosevelt from 4AAA to 3AA
• Proctor from 7AAA to 7AA
• East Grand Forks 8AAA to 8AA
And these move from AA to AAA:
• Stewartville 1AA to 1AAA
• Worthington 3AA to 2AAA
• Mpls. Washburn 4AA to 6AAA
• Albany 6AA to 8AAA
If next year's sections were in place right now, Red Wing would not represent section 1AAA because it is moving to 4AAA, where it would face not 1 but 2 other state tournament entries--Hill-Murray and New Prague. The Trojans quite obviously would not represent section 2AAA. Runners-up Kasson-Mantorville and Mankato East would be the likely representatives. Who would represent 4AAA remains to be seen. 2 state tournament entries--Richfield and Mpls. Washburn--are both in the new section 6AAA.
Class AA
Class AA loses:
• Kingsland, Southland, Wabasha-Kellogg, United South Central, Kimball--moving down
• As already noted, Stewartville, Worthington, Mpls. Washburn and Albany--moving up
Class AA gains the 4 schools mentioned above from AAA, plus the following moving up from A:
• FAIR, St. Croix Prep and St. Paul Prep joining 4AA
• Prairie Seeds joining 5AA
• Pillager joining 6AA
• Barnum and Mesabi East joining 7AA
• Badger-G-MR joining 8AA
Every section has at least 1 change. Most significant are the exchange of state tournament entry Mpls. Washburn to AAA and Mpls. Roosevelt from AAA to AA, and Braham moving from 7AAA to 5AAA. Changes in state tournament entries would include:
• Minnehaha or Roosevelt replacing Washburn in 4AA
• Providence facing Braham in 5AA
• Esko moving up in 7AA
Class A
Class A loses the 8 schools mentioned above as moving up to AA. If next year's sections were in place right now, there would likely be no changes in state tournament entries, but one possibility:
• Parkers Prairie moves from 6 to 5 where it might challenge Upsala
Girls Summary
So overall the changes are not momentous except to maybe a dozen-and-a-half schools with legitimate state tourney ambitions: Eden Prairie, Edina, Wayzata, Roseville, Chaska, Mpls. Washburn, Mpls. Roosevelt, East Grand Forks, Red Wing, New Prague, Hill-Murray, Simley, Worthington, Albany, Minnehaha, Parkers Prairie, and perhaps a couple more.
The Boys
OK, all of that was based on the girls, but there are very few differences between the girls and boys sections because of boys and girls schools (St. Thomas, Visitation, etc.) and a few different cooperatives. Perhaps the biggest differences are:
• Park Center girls stay in AAA, boys are in AAAA
• St. Paul Central girls are AAAA, boys are AAA
• New Prague girls move to 4AAA, boys stay in 1AAA
• Byron girls are AAA, boys remain in AA
• Kenyon-Wanamingo girls move to 1AA, boys stay in 2AA
Other than that there are a lot of minor differences, but not among schools with strong basketball traditions. I cannot see why any of the boys tournament entries would be any different if next year's sections were in place today.
Class AAAA
As best as I can tell only 1 school moved into or out of Class AAAA: Chaska moved from 2AAA to 2AAAA. No Class AAAA school moved down to AAA.
But there were some significant changes within AAAA:
Eden Prairie and Edina moved from 2AAAA, where they faced Kennedy among others, to 6AAAA, where they will face Hopkins.
In return Cooper and Wayzata move from 6AAAA to 2AAAA.
Meanwhile, Burnsville moves from 3AAAA to 2AAAA; Cretin-Derham Hall from 4AAAA to 3AAAA; Roseville from 5AAAA to 4AAAA, where they will now mostly face their Suburban East opponents instead of mostly Northwest Suburban foes; and Coon Rapids from 5AAAA to 7AAAA.
If next year's sections were in place this year there would probably be no change in state tournament entries. The only possible change would be if Roseville might defeat St. Paul Central.
Class AAA
In addition to Chaska departing Class AAA (moving upward), the following schools move from AAA to AA:
• Glencoe from 2AAA to 2AA
• Mpls. Roosevelt from 4AAA to 3AA
• Proctor from 7AAA to 7AA
• East Grand Forks 8AAA to 8AA
And these move from AA to AAA:
• Stewartville 1AA to 1AAA
• Worthington 3AA to 2AAA
• Mpls. Washburn 4AA to 6AAA
• Albany 6AA to 8AAA
If next year's sections were in place right now, Red Wing would not represent section 1AAA because it is moving to 4AAA, where it would face not 1 but 2 other state tournament entries--Hill-Murray and New Prague. The Trojans quite obviously would not represent section 2AAA. Runners-up Kasson-Mantorville and Mankato East would be the likely representatives. Who would represent 4AAA remains to be seen. 2 state tournament entries--Richfield and Mpls. Washburn--are both in the new section 6AAA.
Class AA
Class AA loses:
• Kingsland, Southland, Wabasha-Kellogg, United South Central, Kimball--moving down
• As already noted, Stewartville, Worthington, Mpls. Washburn and Albany--moving up
Class AA gains the 4 schools mentioned above from AAA, plus the following moving up from A:
• FAIR, St. Croix Prep and St. Paul Prep joining 4AA
• Prairie Seeds joining 5AA
• Pillager joining 6AA
• Barnum and Mesabi East joining 7AA
• Badger-G-MR joining 8AA
Every section has at least 1 change. Most significant are the exchange of state tournament entry Mpls. Washburn to AAA and Mpls. Roosevelt from AAA to AA, and Braham moving from 7AAA to 5AAA. Changes in state tournament entries would include:
• Minnehaha or Roosevelt replacing Washburn in 4AA
• Providence facing Braham in 5AA
• Esko moving up in 7AA
Class A
Class A loses the 8 schools mentioned above as moving up to AA. If next year's sections were in place right now, there would likely be no changes in state tournament entries, but one possibility:
• Parkers Prairie moves from 6 to 5 where it might challenge Upsala
Girls Summary
So overall the changes are not momentous except to maybe a dozen-and-a-half schools with legitimate state tourney ambitions: Eden Prairie, Edina, Wayzata, Roseville, Chaska, Mpls. Washburn, Mpls. Roosevelt, East Grand Forks, Red Wing, New Prague, Hill-Murray, Simley, Worthington, Albany, Minnehaha, Parkers Prairie, and perhaps a couple more.
The Boys
OK, all of that was based on the girls, but there are very few differences between the girls and boys sections because of boys and girls schools (St. Thomas, Visitation, etc.) and a few different cooperatives. Perhaps the biggest differences are:
• Park Center girls stay in AAA, boys are in AAAA
• St. Paul Central girls are AAAA, boys are AAA
• New Prague girls move to 4AAA, boys stay in 1AAA
• Byron girls are AAA, boys remain in AA
• Kenyon-Wanamingo girls move to 1AA, boys stay in 2AA
Other than that there are a lot of minor differences, but not among schools with strong basketball traditions. I cannot see why any of the boys tournament entries would be any different if next year's sections were in place today.
The Big Game March 9--Potpourri
Defending state class A champ Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa, #1 seed in section 6A, took it on the chin tonight from unheralded #5 seed Wheaton-Herman-Norcross 66-59. I have no other info at this time.
Another #1 seed Holy Angels in 6AAA lost to #5 Holy Family Catholic 72-64. And another. Roseville lost to Stillwater in 4AAAA 78-65. I saw both of these teams quite recently and I woulda bet the house that no way....
And a disappointment Rosemount 82 Henry Sibley 75. #7 over #6, no big deal, but a disappointment to me. A nice season by the Warriors.
Winona State man and Augustana women have won the Northern Sun playoff titles. Now to see where Minnesota teams will go in D2.
St. Thomas 68 Wheaton 58 to advance to the 3rd round of D3 play.
Player of the Day: Renard Suggs, Woodbury, scored 35 points as the Royals edged Mahtomedi 91-85 in a Section 4AAAA semi-final. They'll now meet Stillwater who shocked #1 seede Roseville in the other semi.
Coach of the Day: Chad Klindworth, Wheaton/Herman-Norcross
Another #1 seed Holy Angels in 6AAA lost to #5 Holy Family Catholic 72-64. And another. Roseville lost to Stillwater in 4AAAA 78-65. I saw both of these teams quite recently and I woulda bet the house that no way....
And a disappointment Rosemount 82 Henry Sibley 75. #7 over #6, no big deal, but a disappointment to me. A nice season by the Warriors.
Winona State man and Augustana women have won the Northern Sun playoff titles. Now to see where Minnesota teams will go in D2.
St. Thomas 68 Wheaton 58 to advance to the 3rd round of D3 play.
Player of the Day: Renard Suggs, Woodbury, scored 35 points as the Royals edged Mahtomedi 91-85 in a Section 4AAAA semi-final. They'll now meet Stillwater who shocked #1 seede Roseville in the other semi.
Coach of the Day: Chad Klindworth, Wheaton/Herman-Norcross
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)