Well, first of all, thank goodness there's a state tournament, and here's hoping that it is played out to the end, until we have 8 2021 Minnesota state high school basketball champions. Of course, due to COVID, we've got an unusual format. We've had 1st round games out in the hinterlands before but never quite like this:
In each class--boys 4A, 3A, 2A and A and girls 4A, 3A, 2A and A--the four southern sections--1, 2, 3 and 4--will be seeded 1 through 4, and ditto the four northern sections--which are of course 5, 6, 7 and 8. The 2 winners from the south and the 2 winners from the north will come to the Twin Cities for the semi-finals and finals. There will be no 3rd place game and there will be no all-tournament. Well, of course, there will be all-tournament teams picked by various media, including right here. But it's weird that the MSHSL will not pick an all-tournament team because they almost never give any consideration to 1st round losers anyway, even when there are consolation games. Oh well.
Among the girls there are an astonishing total of 9 unbeatens. Imagine coming into the state tournament unbeaten like, say, Houston at 18-0 and getting a #4S seed. But, that's what happened. In AAAA one of the 1st round games will match unbeatens Chaska and Stillwater. This (the 9 unbeatens) is of course in part a function of fewer games played and specifically a lack of non-conference games for some schools. So, in other words, easier-than-normal schedules.
Among the girls, you also had a relatively small number of section upsets. None in 4A though unbeaten Stillwater needed on OT to defeat East Ridge. Only one, really, in 3A. #3 Austin also advanced but that was after #1 Red Wing was COVIDed out. There were 4 in 2A and 2 in A. That made the seedings a lot easier.
So here we go.
Class AAAA Girls
With 4 unbeatens, Class 4A still remains the province of the Hopkins Royals and their 77 straight wins until somebody proves otherwise. Forest Lake drew the Royals in the 1st round, and the winner of Chaska and Stillwater, both unbeaten, will get Hopkins in the semi. Farmington, #1 in the south, is the favorite to return to the final for the 2nd straight year. Last year's final was of course cancelled. So this year could be a case of double or nothing.
Both of the 2-3 games should be great games by the way. Chaska and Stillwater, well, have I mentioned that they're unbeaten? Point guards Kennedy Sanders and Alexis Pratt are 2 of the state's best but I don't think Stillwater has anybody up front to slow down Mallory Heyer, Gopher recruit with 22 ppg. Still, this is as good as a tossup. Stillwater got its bad game out of its system in the section vs. East Ridge. Ditto Centennial and Elk River, who split a pair of regular season games. This game may be decided in the post where Centennial's Jenna Guyer and Elk's Johanna Langbehn are solid.
So in the QF, we like Hopkins by double digits, Farmington by 8, Elk River by 4, and Chaska by 2.
In the SF, Hopkins beats Chaska by a dozen, and Farmington beats Elk River by 6.
In the final, Farmington's chances will be governed by 6-5 post Sophie Hart, and whether she can single-handedly slow down Hopkins 6-footers Maya Nnaji, Nunu Agara and Taylor Woodson. It says here that's too much to ask but if Farmington's sharpshooters Peyton Blandin and Paige Kindseth manage to hit at least a half dozen 3s, then it could be closer than expected. Still, we see Hopkins getting to 80 straight wins, 67-60, and that would only be Hopkins 3rd closest game of the year. So, again, don't count your chickens. But anything other than a Hopkins title will be an upset.
AAAA MVP: Maya Nnaji, Hopkins, 6-4, junior, C
Class AAA Girls
2020 finalist Becker was rated #1 all year until losing by 1 at Holy Angels and then to AAAA Minnetonka and Hopkins before winning 2 section games by an average of 86-34 to return to the big show. The final rankings had Becker #3 behind Hill-Murray and Holy Angels, and QRF had them ranked the same way. But, make no mistake, Becker is the team to beat. Hill-Murray outscored its opponents by an average of 26 points, Holy Angels 24 and Becker 41.
But, wait. Becker beat Big Lake by just 6 in the section. Hill-Murray beat Mahtonedi by 3. Holy Angels did win by double digits, beating Benilde by 11. Still, making AAA will be more competitive than you thought.
And consider that after the "big 3," Marshall is unbeaten after beating Waconia by 7. So let's just say "big 4," and all 4 should advance, despite the close calls.
Becker has 5 girls averaging in double figures, led by senior point guard Julia Bengtson (15 ppg). You cannot stop all of them. And they have 6 girls who made at least 10 3-pointers and shot 34 percent among them. Sophomore Maren Westin made 47 percent of her 3s. They'll beat Alexandria 73-60 in the 1st round.
Now, don't get me wrong. Holy Angels is a great team with 4 girls scoring in double figures and something of a size advantage inside. The Stars beat Becker 71-70 as Becker made just 14-of-44 3s and just 9-of-29 2s, not to mention 12-of-22 FT. The Stars are the better defensive team, but it's hard to see Becker shooting like that again. Holy Angels gets perennial power Grand Rapids in the 1st, and wins 64-54.
In the SF, Marshall renews its rivalry with Holy Angels and turns the tables on 2016, 62-57.
In the other SF, Becker beats Hill-Murray 69-61.
Final: This one won't go to the last second but it will be a great game. Becker 77 Marshall 72. Tournament MVP: Julia Bengtson, Becker, senior, PG.
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