Class AA
Conspiracy theorists might have some fun with the Class AA seeds and matchups. 1st, 3 of the best 4 teams are in the north unless you think Minnehaha (3 losses) is better than Providence (to whom it lost twice) or Duluth Marshall or Albany, with a total of just 4 losses among them. Then there's a really strange flip-flop in the south where Lake City (3 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 27 points) gets the #4 seed, and Glencoe (4 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points) gets #3.
As a result, here are the brackets along with the team's rating from 1 to 8 (according to me).
Albany 5 vs. Pelican Rapids 7
Minnehaha 6 vs. Glencoe-Silver Lake 8
New London Spicer 2 vs. Lake City 4
Providence 1 vs. Duluth Marshall 3
Now it's true that Albany has been rated as highly as #1 this year but call me a skeptic. Lake City was just a #3 seed in Section 1 but Section 1 is always very competitive. A key to winning a state title is not losing, and any team that gets a game that it probably can't lose is a giant step ahead of the game. Albany and Minnehaha got those games and yet they're arguably the 5th and 6th best teams in the field. Sure, there's other ways to look at these matchups. The top 6 teams are all contenders. But this is how I see it. All 4 teams in the lower bracket are going to have to win 2 very competitive games just to get to the final.
It is what it is, and here's how we think it's going to go.
As we noted, #1N Albany was rated #1 for awhile. Albany also lost just once, to unbeaten, #1 New London-Spicer, and outscored their opponents by 30 points. And they've got senior guard Paige Meyer. Still, I don't see Albany as a title contender even though there's a very good chance they can get to the final. At this stage, I see Albany beating Pelican Rapids 52-43.
As noted, Minnehaha gets a lucky break, drawing possibly the weakest team in the tournament. Glencoe has the most losses in the field, the lowest QRF and the 2nd lowest average winning margin. Minnehaha wins 59-53.
Now the going gets really tough. New London-Spicer is unbeaten, rated #1, seeded #1S, and they draw an opponent to whom they could just as easily lose. It's a tough draw for Lake City, too, obviously, against the #1 overall seed and a team that has state tournament experience from last year, which experience Lake City lacks. The Lakers might have a better chance in the 2nd round. Here it's NLS 57 Lake City 56.
Providence went 20-1 losing only to Concordia, and outscored its opponents by 31 points, yet was just #9 in QRF. They beat state tourney entry Minnehaha twice and won 3 section games by an average of 24 points. 5-6 7th grader Maddyn Greenway, daughter of the old Viking LB, has emerged as Minnesota's newest superstar, scoring 21 ppg. I like Providence to go all the way. But Duluth Marshall has the best player in the AA field and maybe Ms. Basketball in Gianna Kneepkens, the state's leading scorer at 42 ppg. Not only that but Duluth has state tournament experience from last year as well. Still, like I said, I like Providence to go all the way and they can't do that unless they win this win. Providence 52 Duluth Marshall 49.
In the SF, Providence 52 New London 50, and Albany 55 Minnehaha 53. Like I said, it's tight, and if you scrambled the seeds and matchups, you could just as easily have Duluth Marshall and Lake City in the final. But you don't, or won't.
Final: Providence 56 Albany 51. Tournament MVP: Paige Meyer, Albany, senior, PG.
Class A
There's a little less to argue about in Class A. Well, there's the south seeds where Houston comes in 18-0 and gets #4 and a 1st round date with defending state champion (2019) and probable 2020 champion until it was cancelled, also unbeaten, Minneota at 22-0. The problem is that Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, who ended up #3, in unbeaten, too. Mayer Lutheran, on the other hand, has 2 losses. Why not them #4? Well, Mayer Lutheran is #1 QRF, Sleepy Eye #6 and Houston just #14. So who really deserves to get Minneota in the 1st round? How about 17-5 West Central? Well, they're in the north.
So, again, it is what it is, and here is what it really is.
#1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 56 #4N West Central 47
#3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 65 #2S Mayer Lutheran 63
#1S Minneota 58 #4 Houston 52
#2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 61 #3N Cass Lake-Bena 52
In the SF, #3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 #1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 57, and
#1S Minneota 56 #2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 55
In the final, well, the best player doesn't always win, but it helps to have the best player, and the best player in this field, previously unmentioned, is Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye junior guard.
Final: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 Minneota 55. Tournament MVP: Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, junior, guard
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