Boys Class 2A
There were just a couple of section upsets here--Annandale and Moose Lake were the perpretrators, though I have to say that I had Annandale all the way despite its 3-seed behind Melrose and Mora. Moose Lake not so much though I should note that they're the highest scoring team in the field. Still the 3 major powers here are Caledonia, Mpls. North and Waseca, 2 of whom will play for the title.
So the QF don't look particularly compelling. The one and only possibility of an upset is St. Croix Prep vs. Caledonia, because it's so hard to know what to make of the Prepsters. They're 20-1 and yet they're just #15 in the QRF. They play in the not-tough Skyline conference and their non-conference schedule highlighted the Little Sisters of the Poor. By way of contrast, Legacy Christian from the not-tough MCAA went 20-1 and got a #2 QRF, but that's in Class A. But, all of that aside, I don't expect an upset but I can't say I know if St. Croix Prep is good, bad or in between. Otherwise, it's not that hard to peg the other contenders. So:
• Caledonia 73 St. Croix Prep 56
• Waseca 68 Morris 60. Morris is very possibly the #4 team in this field and so the format didn't do them any favors.
• Mpls. North 82 Moose Lake-Willow River 65. Again, Moose Lake is the highest scoring team in the field (any class) but they also give up the most points (in Class AA).
• Annandale 60 Fergus Falls 52.
In the SF, Waseca knocks off Annandale 69-61.
Then, well, here it comes, the first matchup of the big 3--North vs. Caledonia. Now, keep in mind, Waseca beat North in both 2019 and 2020 while North and Caledonia split a pair of games those same years. But, as far as Caledonia is concerned, let the record show that superstar Eli King went out with a knee injury in January and he won't be back. You might have missed it because Caledonia just kept rolling along. But at this level it becomes a big deal and so North should prevail 66-63.
Final: Both teams have a lot of depth, so this should be a very high energy affair. That might work to North's advantage as Willie Wilson et al might have a little bit of an advantage in the quickness category. And, by depth, I mean 3 bench players who score 6 points apiece. Waseca's depth is one player less deep but they have 2 kids off the bench who score 8 points. So lot's of firepower on both sides.
If it comes down to quickness: North. If it's decided inside, well, North has 6-6 senior Davon Townley (15 pts, 9 reb) while Waseca has Andrew Morgan, 6-8 senior who is headed to North Dakota State (22 pts, 6 reb). Both are among the state's best big men; Morgan is the best after Holmgren and Tschetter. Advantage Waseca. But the advantages on both sides are small. Still, Waseca has 2 wins over North in recent years. So this could be considered a surprise:
North 65 Waseca 64. Tournament MVP: Willie Wilson, North, senior, guard.
Boys Class A
Okay, this is always the toughest pick among the 8 boys and girls tournaments 1) because Class A has less non-conference play among the elite teams statewide and 2) the boys Class A entries change out a lot while the girls section champs seem to be the same year after year. Here in fact there is almost nobody with any significant tournament experience in recent years.
To wit, 3 teams are making their first state appearance: Deer River, Legacy and Nevis. But, their tournament jitters won't be anything more than everybody else except maybe Central Minnesota Christian. They were here in 2015, 2016 and 2017 and finished 3rd in 2015. Hayfield was here in 2013. Otherwise nobody remembers their last appearance: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 2006, Hancock 2003, Badber-Greenbush-Middle River 2007. Hancock won a title in 1998, Hayfield was runnerup in 2002. But, again, nobody has an advantage in recent tournament play with the exception of CMC.
In the QF in the south:
• #1 Legacy (20-1) and #4 Hayfield (18-4) are a tough pick for a 1 vs. 4. Legacy's not that good and Hayfield's not that bad. They game will be in Rochester. Advantage Hayfield? Nah. But Hayfield's top 2 players are probably better than Legacy's but Legacy goes 6 deep with scoring threats, Hayfield 4. So I'll take Hayfield 65-63.
• #2 Central MN Christian vs. #3 Sleepy Eye St. Mary's is a real toss-up. CMC beat Wabasso by 13, SESM beat Wabasso by 16 and 1. Both of them outscored their opponents by 12 points per game. Both teams can score. I think CMC might be better able to get a really big stop. CMC 66 Sleepy Eye 62.
In the north:
• Nevis is a solid fave vs. Hancock, though Hancock beat undefeated and #1 QRF Mahnomen, but Mahnomen was never that good. Nevis 62 Hancock 55.
• Deer River should defeat Badger-Greenbush-Middle River. Deer River is the second highest scoring team in the field (all classes) but only 4 teams have given up fewer points than BGMR. A buddy of mine says that good defense is just bad offense. I think that means that if Deer River is really a good offense, they should win. I think. Deer River 66 BGMR 57.
In the semis:
• Deer River 68 Hayfield 64
• Nevis 65 CMC 58
So 2 first-timers meet in the final. Nevis is deeper. I like Nevis 65 Deer River 64. Tournament MVP: Eddie Kramer, Nevis, 6-4, junior, F.
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