Hey, far be it from me to say I told you so. But, well, I told you so. Well, not you, specifically, but I told some of my basketball buddies that I didn't like the Rudy Gobert deal. You'll have to trust me on that. But, more to the point, I'm telling you now. I don't really like the Rudy Gobert deal. And not because Rudy doesn't seem like a good guy and a good basketball player. But there is not one but 2 good reasons, as I see it, not to like the deal.
1) The Wolves vastly overpaid, giving up 10 players for one. Anybody remember Herschel Walker? I mean the football player? The former Minnesota Viking?
2) What's the strategy? What's the game plan? I mean, obviously, there's the fact that the Wolves went 46-36 last year. This year, at this moment, they're 16-18 and out of the playoffs. I don't see how you can ignore that in thinking about the trade and the Wolves' plans and expectations, because clearly it's not going like anybody thought. Why not?
10 for 1
Unfortunately, the Wolves overpaying is an old story. Anybody remember Andrew Wiggins? The Wolves were so desperate to be rid of poor Andrew, and the best they could do for a former overall #1 pick was to get a player of approximately equal value, equal caliber, which is fair enough. But, in order to make the deal a reality it was the Wolves who betrayed their desperation by throwing in the draft pick in order to make it so. I mean, in return they got a player whom 3 teams had already given up on. And we're the ones who threw in a draft pick!
Now, to get Rudy, they gave up 5 players and 5 draft picks. The top 3 of the active players played 75 minutes per game and scored 25 ppg on approx. 45% shooting for the Wolves last year. This year, the 3--Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley in Utah, and Patrick Beverley in LA--have upped their performance to 79 minutes and 28 ppg on 43% shooting.And, yet the biggest loss among the 5 active players might one day be the rookie Walker Kessler, who is playing 18 minutes for Utah and scoring 7 ppg on 74% shooting.
But, of course, the loss of these 5 players will over the next 7 years pale compared to the loss of 4 1st round draft picks in 2023, '25, '27 and '29, and a swap of 1st rounders in 2026. Wanna bet Utah gets the best of that deal, too? We'll be sending draft picks to Utah long after Rudy rides off into the proverbial sunset. This is shades of Joe Smith. You might recall he was signed in an illegal deal back around 2000, with the result that the NBA fined the Wolves 5 1st round draft picks. As a result, the Wolves were unable to draft and sign 1st rounders for 5 years, thus rendering themselves unable to surround Kevin Garnett with an appropriate supporting cast. He had to go to the Boston Celtics to win an NBA title, which is what he did.
So, I'm sorry. 10 for one is not a good deal. Obviously, this trade had nothing to do with the future. It was all about NOW. So, how's it going, NOW?
What's the Strategy?
So, last year the Wolves went 46-36, winning 56.1% of their games. Yes, they had to play in to the playoffs, but they only had to win one home game to do so. So far this season, they're 16-18, winning 47.5% of their games. OK, that's just 9 more losses in 100 games, but that's just enough to get you bounced out of the playoffs. Currently, the Wolves are tied for 10th and 11th in the west. I don't know if the 10th spot is decided by a tie-breaker or if they would have to play another play-in game. But, in order to get to the round of 8 in the west this year, they might have to win 3 games, all on the road, vs. just one home win last year.
Now, I'm sure some of you are going to point out that Karl Towns is out. I would note that the Wolves were 10-11 and riding a 3 game losing streak when Karl got hurt. Since then, they're 5-7, so yes, they won 6 more games per 100 with Karl than they've won without him. But compared to a 6 per 100 recent decline, they had already lost 9 more games per 100 this year as compared to last year with Karl in the lineup.
Last year, the Wolves simply outscored people. They led the NBA in points per game and in 3-point shots made. They had a strategy. Their average game score was 116-113, and they made 15-of-41 3s or 36.6%. Not only did they outshoot their opponents (by only one percentage point each on both 2s and 3s but, still, they shot better than their opponents). But they also got off 4 more shots per game, by virtue of 2 fewer turnovers and one extra offensive board. And so we outscored our opponents 99-93 from the floor. The strategy was working.
So, then they traded 5 guys to get Rudy Gobert. Well, I'm happy to say that Rudy is keeping his part of the bargain with 14 points and 12 rebounds per game, vs. 7 and 8 for the guy he replaced, Jarred Vanderbilt. So far, so good.
But to get Rudy, they also traded away 2 fairly reliable scorers off the bench, Malik Beasley and Patrick Beverley, who between them scored 18 ppg on 40% shooting overall and 4 3-pointers per night on 33% on 3s. More to the point, much of their scoring came in games where Ant Edwards and/or DeAngelo Russell were having an off night. In that case, they had somebody on the bench to come in and keep the 3s coming. Now? Well, Beasley and Beverley have been replaced by Kyle Anderson and Austin Rivers who are scoring 12.5 ppg though it's true that they have a better shooting percentage. But they pass up shots that Beasley and Beverley not only took, but sometimes made. And, so we're taking 8 fewer 3 pointers per night compared to last year.
But, wait! The Wolves outscored their opponents 116-113 last year. This year they're scoring 115 ppg, just one point less (obviously). But, they're giving up 116, 3 points more. And while they got 4 more shots per game than their opponents, this year the opponents are getting 3 extra shots. So even though we're still outshooting them, they're scoring 96 ppg from the floor and we're scoring 94. (Last year, again, we outscored them 99-93 from the floor.)
So the real culprit is what I call the "special teams." Last year we had 2 fewer turnovers per game and 2 more offensive rebounds, and thus 4 extra possessions. This year the turnovers are even, but the opponents are getting 3 more offensive rebounds. So they're getting the extra possessions. So with Rudy Gobert in the lineup, we're giving up 3 extra points and 3 more offensive rebounds. I'm not saying it's Rudy's fault. But, I am saying that whatever the strategy was, it ain't workin.'
For the record, the Wolves 4 returning starters--Edwards, Towns, Russell and McDaniels--are scoring one fewer point than last year. They're making 7.5 3s per night vs. 9 a year ago. And they're turning it over 2 more times per game. So in summary:
• the big 4 returnees are less productive. Edwards and Russell are scoring 40 ppg between them, and at least half of the NBA, maybe more, have 2 guards who are doing that or better. Even when they play well, they aren't always competitive.
• Gobert has filled the gap, but of course he wasn't supposed to fill a gap, he was supposed to make the Wolves better
• and, the productivity that we've lost off the bench has negated whatever improvements Gobert has brought and exacerbated things whenever Edwards and Russell aren't both playing well.
And it's going to get worse. In 3 or 4 years, when Gobert calls it quits and we're still sending perfectly good draft picks to Salt Lake, we're really gonna regret this deal. What nobody thought was that we might regret it as soon as December of the first year of the trade--that is, today.
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