Monday, March 20, 2023

Boys State Tournament Preview--The Little Dogs and More fo the Big Dogs (The Pre-Tournament All-Tournament Candidates)

 Ok, these guys are not the Mastiffs and the Saint Bernards but no, they're not exactly Jack Russells and Yorkies. More like Shepherds and Huskies and Labs. Not little dogs, i guess, but tough, mid-sized dogs. Class AA and A.

Class AA

Holy Family is a prohibitive favorite here with 6-11 post Baden Kapke (22 pts an 13 reb), 6-11 Collin Mulholland (15 ppg) and 6-2, junior guard Kole Hanson (22 ppg), the latter 2 being in-bound transfers for this year. Holy Family lost to AAAA #1 Park Center 100-80, not much different from what AAAA teams did against Park Center. It's not obvious that Holy Family wouldn't be a strong contender to win in AAA if not in AAAA. They also played and beat 2 AA tournament teams, Albany and Plainview-EW, though by an average of just 70-65. So maybe they're not as dominant as they appear. Still, with 2 transfers, they became better and more cohesive as the year progressed.

If anybody can beat Holy Family, it might have to be Maple River though first they've got to get past Minnehaha. But they beat the Redhawks 68-63 earlier this year, so they can have some confidence. Maple River is led by Mason Schirman and Hayden Niebuhr, who total 34 ppg together. If Holy Family and Maple River indeed meet in the semi-final, it will be a replay of the 2007 final won by the Fire 60-57 in OT. It was a big upset because Maple River had surprised Braham and denied them a 4th straight title 68-59 in the 1st round. 

Along with Maple River at 29-2, Albany at 29-1 also comes in with an impressive record including wins over Eden Valley and Pequot and a loss to Holy Family by just 8 points. 

Still, Holy Family hardly seems poised for defeat. They beat Minnehaha 101-56! If I'm Holy Family, I'd rather play 'Haha in the semis than Maple River. If the Fire win, Boden Kapke will be the MVP.

Class A

In Class A, Russell-Tyler-Ruthton got the #1 seed and, hey, they're 28-1, and RTR has had a lot of success with 5 championship game appearances resulting in state titles in 2004, 2005 and 2018 and runners-up in 1988 and 1989.  But, the 2004 and 2005 champions won't have much impact in 2023, specifically if RTR meets Cherry in the semi-finals as expected. The question there will be how RTR's Aiden Wichmann and Drew Werkman, with 35 ppg, 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals can match up with Cherry's 6-some of star players.

Cherry finished at just 26-4 and the #4 seed but it's hard to see them as anything other than the favorite with brothers Isaac, Noah and Isaiah Asuma who scored 37 ppg among them, though the younger brothers are just in 8th and 9th grade. Isaac is a U of M recruit, a 6-3 junior who scores 24 ppg. Plus sophomores Noah Sundquist, Andrew Staples and Carson Brown who score another 39 ppg. How can they not be the favorite? Well, they lost 4 times including to Class AA Minnehaha and to Class A New Life. 

I like Cherry over RTR 69-63 in the semis. Meanwhile, New Life and Spring Grove would also be a great semi-final matchup. New Life goes 4 deep with double digit scorers and has great size for Class A at 6-8, 6-7 and 6-4. Still, I like Spring Grove 58-56. In the final, I like Cherry 63 Spring Grove 57. Class A MVP is Isaac Asuma.

In summary, the 4 champions are expected to be Park Center, Totino-Grace, Holy Family and Cherry, but there is nobody, not even Park Center that will not have to win a tight game to do so. Holy Family seems most likely to win a little bit more easily. The top players might be:

C- Baden Kapke, Holy Family 6-11, sr., 22 ppg, 13 reb

PF- Nolan Winter, Lakeville North 6-11, sr., 23 ppg-12 reb

SF- Matthew Bothun, St. Francis, 6-9, sr., 25 ppg

PG-Nasir Whitlock, DeLaSalle, sr., 27 ppg

SG- Isaac Asuma, Cherry, 6-3, sr., 24 ppg

Second Team

C- Patrick Bath, Totino-Grace, 6-9, sr., 17 ppg

PF- Aeron Stevens, Plainview-Elgin-Millville, 6-7, sr., 25 ppg

SF- C.J. O'Hara, Totino-Grace, 6-4, sr., 18 ppg

PG- Ben Kopetzki, Andover, 6-0, sr., 25 ppg, 6 reb. 7 asts, 3 stls

SG- Isaiah Hagen, Orono, 6-3, sr., 23 ppg, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals

Third Team

F- J.J. Ware, Park Center, 6-6, jr., 18 ppg

F- Jack Robison, Lakeville North, 6-6, junior, 15 ppg, 5 reb, 3 asts

PG- Bralyn Steffensmaier, Alexandria , 5-11. jr., 22 ppg

CG- Kole Hanson, Holy Family, 6-2, jr. 22 ppg

SG- Hayden Tibbetts, Wayzata, 5-11, sr., 21 ppg

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