Hopkins Vulnerable?
I wrote a post a couple of days ago called "Hopkins Girls Vulnerable." You may or may not choose to believe me. Obviously I didn't quite finish it and I didn't get it posted. I noted that they had lost 2 games this year for the first time since 2018. They lost to the amazing Providence Eagles 87-81 and they lost to Wayzata (55-53) in the Lake Conference for the 2nd time in recent years, but got their revenge in the section final (70-68). So, I dunno, it seemed like maybe they were vulnerable. And, in hindsight, yeah, they were vulnerable.
And, then, I noted that they would be playing St. Michael-Albertville in the final, and Hopkins beat St. Michael twice in the Lake Conference by an average of 89-80. So, suddenly Hopkins didn't seem so vulnerable anymore.
Well, then, as you know, Hopkins got blown out in the 1st half of the AAAA final 42-25 as St. Michael shot 61 percent and Hopkins just 21 percent. Tessa Johnson looked like the Player of the Year, which is of course exactly who she is with 12 points, 8 boards and 5 assists. The big difference maker was however JaKahla Craft who also played like the Player of the Year with 14 points, 5 boards, 3 assists and a steal. Only Taylor Woodson played like herself for Hopkins in the that 1st half with 11 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals. But, if you've seen Hopkins over the past 20 years, you knew that this game was not over.
Indeed, in the 2nd half, everybody for Hopkins played like Hopkins. Woodson had 10 points, Nunu Agara scored 12, Kelly Boyle 11 and Liv McGill 6. In the 2nd half, Hopkins was Hopkins. They scored 8 points off turnovers and 15 2nd chance points. And, yet, from 42-25, they fell behind by 20, 58-38 at 11:50, but even then you could feel the momentum going the other way. By 7:10 they were within single digits at 58-49 as the Knights went 0-for-5 from the field and turned it over an alarming 8 times over those 4:40. At 18 seconds Hopkins was within 2 as St. Michael turned it over another 7 times but saved their bacon by making 4-of-their last 8 shots. By now, it was too late. Hopkins was forced to foul and Tessa Johnson made 3-of-4 FT, so that Kelly Boyle's last-second 3 left them one point short. They out-scored the Knights 46-29 in the 2nd half.
St. Michael shot 49 percent, Hopkins 34. And even a ridiculous advantage of 23 more shots for Hopkins wasn't enough to overcome a full half of bad shooting.
So, just to be clear, Hopkins beat St. Michael 2 out of 3 and outscored them by 17 points overall. They outscored the Knights in 4 of 6 halves. But St. Michael won the state final. Can't take that away from them.
Hopkins has won 8 state titles over 20 years (19 tournaments) and coulda/shoulda/woulda won in 2020 when they were 30-0 and won 2 tournament games by an average of 75-47 with Paige Bueckers when the final was cancelled. I give 'em that one for a total of 9 titles vs. now 4 losses in the final and another in the semis to Chaska in the semis in 2021.
Over 20 seasons, Hopkins is 545-52 (.913). Year by year, that's as follows:
2004 31-1 defeated Lakeville 63-45 in state final, star player was Leslie Knight, coach Brian Cosgriff
2006 30-2 defeated Kennedy 65-58, Knight
2011 30-2 defeated Eden Prairie 67-45, Nia Coffey
2012 30-1 defeated Osseo 77-55, Coffey
2013 31-1 defeated Kennedy 68-45, Coffey
2015 31-1 defeated Eastview. T.T. Starks
2016 29-3 lost to Minnetonka 61-52 in final, Nia Hollie
2017 31-1 lost to Elk River 64-60 in final, Paige Bueckers
2018 28-4 lost to Eastview 68-63 in final, Bueckers
2019 32-0 defeated Stillwater 74-45, Bueckers
2020 30-0 won 2 tournament games by an average of 75-47 but final vs. Farmington was cancelled, Bueckers
2021 16-1 lost to Chaska 67-62 in semi-final, Maya Nnaji
2022 26-1 defeated St. Michael 72-56 in the final, Nnaji, coach Tara Starks
2023 28-3 lost to St. Michael 71-70 in the final
So, whatever else you might think, who would trade their post-season record for this one. Everybody, that's who. And my current point is that while, yes, St. Michael is the 2023 state champion, you can make a case that Hopkins is nevertheless the #1 team in the state, or at least in Class AAAA for the season. Again, they won 2 out of 3 and outscored their opponents in 4 out of 6 halves over the year. And, even after yesterday'a final, Hopkins is still #1 and St. Michael #2 according to QRF.
But then there's the Providence Lions
In the end, Providence played one state champion, Class A MIB, whom they demolished 87-53. They didn't play AAAA champion St. Michael or AAA champion Benilde, but they beat #1AAAA seed Hopkins and split with #1AAA seed Becker. They were 8-0 against other state tournament entries. And, they might have the best player in the state in 9th grade guard Maddyn Greenway. She won't win Ms. Basketball. You gotta be a senior to do that and St. Michael's Tessa Johnson and Hopkins' Taylor Woodson and Nunu Agara would seem to be #1 through #3 among the seniors. But, again, Providence beat Hopkins head to head with Greenway scoring 41 points. In the state tournament, the top 3 scorers were Greenway 107, Olivia Olson 77 and Tess Johnson 77. Greenway is one of the top 5 players in the state at any rate and any age.
Who's #1?
So if you played a round robin, whether it's 2 teams or 3 or 5 or 8 or whatever, here's how it would work out. In other words, I'm basing this on a mini-regular season more than a one-and-done mini-state tournament where one specific matchup can throw everything out of whack. Not that I don't love the one-and-done state tournament. Everybody knows who the state champions are. But my top 10 is something different.
1. Hopkins 28-3
2. St. Michael 29-3
3. Providence 30-2
4. Chaska 27-2
5. Benilde 26-6
6. Wayzata 23-5
7. Becker 25-3
8. Eden Prairie 20-9
9. Stewartville 26-2
10. Albany 29-3
Actually, I ran an 8-team round-robin simulation, with any existing head-to-head meetings being regarded as decisive. There were of course several matchups where there was no real game. In any event, I came up with the following results. Totally speculative.
1. Hopkins and St. Michael 6-1 with Hopkins beating St. Michael and losing to Providence.
3. Providence 5-2 with losses to St. Michael and Benilde.
4. Benilde and Chaska 3-4
6. Wayzata 2-5
7. Becker and Eden Prairie 1-6
No comments:
Post a Comment