2021 State Tournament Preview--Boys Class AA and A

 Boys Class 2A

There were just a couple of section upsets here--Annandale and Moose Lake were the perpretrators, though I have to say that I had Annandale all the way despite its 3-seed behind Melrose and Mora. Moose Lake not so much though I should note that they're the highest scoring team in the field. Still the 3 major powers here are Caledonia, Mpls. North and Waseca, 2 of whom will play for the title.

So the QF don't look particularly compelling. The one and only possibility of an upset is St. Croix Prep vs. Caledonia, because it's so hard to know what to make of the Prepsters. They're 20-1 and yet they're just #15 in the QRF. They play in the not-tough Skyline conference and their non-conference schedule highlighted the Little Sisters of the Poor. By way of contrast, Legacy Christian from the not-tough MCAA went 20-1 and got a #2 QRF, but that's in Class A. But, all of that aside, I don't expect an upset but I can't say I know if St. Croix Prep is good, bad or in between. Otherwise, it's not that hard to peg the other contenders. So:

• Caledonia 73 St. Croix Prep 56

• Waseca 68 Morris 60. Morris is very possibly the #4 team in this field and so the format didn't do them any favors.

• Mpls. North 82 Moose Lake-Willow River 65. Again, Moose Lake is the highest scoring team in the field (any class) but they also give up the most points (in Class AA).

• Annandale 60 Fergus Falls 52.

In the SF, Waseca knocks off Annandale 69-61.

Then, well, here it comes, the first matchup of the big 3--North vs. Caledonia. Now, keep in mind, Waseca beat North in both 2019 and 2020 while North and Caledonia split a pair of games those same years. But, as far as Caledonia is concerned, let the record show that superstar Eli King went out with a knee injury in January and he won't be back. You might have missed it because Caledonia just kept rolling along. But at this level it becomes a big deal and so North should prevail 66-63.

Final: Both teams have a lot of depth, so this should be a very high energy affair. That might work to North's advantage as Willie Wilson et al might have a little bit of an advantage in the quickness category. And, by depth, I mean 3 bench players who score 6 points apiece. Waseca's depth is one player less deep but they have 2 kids off the bench who score 8 points. So lot's of firepower on both sides. 

If it comes down to quickness: North. If it's decided inside, well, North has 6-6 senior Davon Townley (15 pts, 9 reb) while Waseca has Andrew Morgan, 6-8 senior who is headed to North Dakota State (22 pts, 6 reb). Both are among the state's best big men; Morgan is the best after Holmgren and Tschetter. Advantage Waseca. But the advantages on both sides are small. Still, Waseca has 2 wins over North in recent years. So this could be considered a surprise:

North 65 Waseca 64. Tournament MVP: Willie Wilson, North, senior, guard.

Boys Class A

Okay, this is always the toughest pick among the 8 boys and girls tournaments 1) because Class A has less non-conference play among the elite teams statewide and 2) the boys Class A entries change out a lot while the girls section champs seem to be the same year after year. Here in fact there is almost nobody with any significant tournament experience in recent years.

To wit, 3 teams are making their first state appearance: Deer River, Legacy and Nevis. But, their tournament jitters won't be anything more than everybody else except maybe Central Minnesota Christian. They were here in 2015, 2016 and 2017 and finished 3rd in 2015. Hayfield was here in 2013. Otherwise nobody remembers their last appearance: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 2006, Hancock 2003, Badber-Greenbush-Middle River 2007. Hancock won a title in 1998, Hayfield was runnerup in 2002. But, again, nobody has an advantage in recent tournament play with the exception of CMC.

In the QF in the south:

• #1 Legacy (20-1) and #4 Hayfield (18-4) are a tough pick for a 1 vs. 4. Legacy's not that good and Hayfield's not that bad. They game will be in Rochester. Advantage Hayfield? Nah. But Hayfield's top 2 players are probably better than Legacy's but Legacy goes 6 deep with scoring threats, Hayfield 4. So I'll take Hayfield 65-63.

• #2 Central MN Christian vs. #3 Sleepy Eye St. Mary's is a real toss-up. CMC beat Wabasso by 13, SESM beat Wabasso by 16 and 1. Both of them outscored their opponents by 12 points per game. Both teams can score. I think CMC might be better able to get a really big stop. CMC 66 Sleepy Eye 62.

 In the north:

• Nevis is a solid fave vs. Hancock, though Hancock beat undefeated and #1 QRF Mahnomen, but Mahnomen was never that good. Nevis 62 Hancock 55.

• Deer River should defeat Badger-Greenbush-Middle River. Deer River is the second highest scoring team in the field (all classes) but only 4 teams have given up fewer points than BGMR. A buddy of mine says that good defense is just bad offense. I think that means that if Deer River is really a good offense, they should win. I think. Deer River 66 BGMR 57.

In the semis:

• Deer River 68 Hayfield 64

• Nevis 65 CMC 58

So 2 first-timers meet in the final. Nevis is deeper. I like Nevis 65 Deer River 64. Tournament MVP: Eddie Kramer, Nevis, 6-4, junior, F.

State Tournament Preview 2021 Boys--Class AAAA and AAA

Well, first of all, thank goodness there's a state tournament, and here's hoping that it is played out to the end, until we have 8 2021 Minnesota state high school basketball champions. Of course, due to COVID, we've got an unusual format. We've had 1st round games out in the hinterlands before but never quite like this:

In each class--boys 4A, 3A, 2A and A and girls 4A, 3A, 2A and A--the four southern sections--1, 2, 3 and 4--will be seeded 1 through 4, and ditto the four northern sections--which are of course 5, 6, 7 and 8. The 2 winners from the south and the 2 winners from the north will come to the Twin Cities for the semi-finals and finals. There will be no 3rd place game and there will be no all-tournament. Well, of course, there will be all-tournament teams picked by various media, including right here. But it's weird that the MSHSL will not pick an all-tournament team because they almost never give any consideration to 1st round losers, even when there are consolation games. Oh well.

Boys Class 4A

Champlin Park is the only unbeaten at 21-0 and has been rated #1 all year long and is #1 QRF. The obvious challenger is Wayzata at 16-2 and #2 QRF. They have no common opponents but Champlin outscored its opponents by an average of 70-54, Wayzata by an impressive 78-59. Champlin's signatures are a 75-65 win over Totino-Grace and a pair of OT wins vs. Park Center, including in the section final. Wayzata lost to Hopkins and Minnehaha by 7 each, but bounced back to beat Hopkins.

Champlin is led by a classic inside/outside duo, both seniors: 6-7 Francis Nwaokorie (19 ppg) and 6-1 Joshua Strong (6-1). Wayzata would seem to have more weapons with juniors 6-9 Carter Bjerke and 6-6 Camden Heide, both of whom can score both outside and in; and 6-1 senior Eddie Beeninga. Both teams are in the north half of the draw and fortunately they won't meet until the finals. So often the finals comes down to guard play, so Strong vs. Beeninga will be key. On the other hand, on paper Bjerke and Heide might be a little too much for Champlin. If they both play well, Wayzata wins. 

We see the quarterfinals like this: 

• #1S Shakopee takes on the tournament's biggest Cinderella team, Owatonna. Owatonna beat #1 seed Lakeville South rather impressively in the Section 1 final, 94-85, and #4S seems like kind of a tough draw. But the Big 9's AAAA teams get killed on QRF because 7 of the 12 teams in the conference are AAA. Still, Mankato West, who finished 4th in the Big 9 at 13-4 but won Section 2AAA, got a #2 seed. But, Byron, who beat Big 9 champion Austin in 1AAA, also got a #4 seed. You know darn well Austin would have been #2 and Byron beat 'em. These seeds can be downright irrational and the southeastern (Section 1) teams in all classes end up all over the place because they play more games outside their class than most other teams. 

So anyway, Shakopee uses its depth to grind out wins. Owatonna relies on 6-8 Evan Dushek and 6-2 guard Brayden Williams, both juniors. Owatonna beat Lakeville South by 9, as we said. Shakopee split with South, winning by 27 and losing by 3. This game will be at Hastings, and we'll take Owatonna in an upset 59-57.

• Cretin beats Rosemount in another tight game, 61-59.

• Champlin beats Maple Grove 63-54 in an unfortunate conference matchup.

• Wayzata defeats Duluth East 74-63.

In the semis, Champlin beats Cretin 73-68, and Wayzata beats Owatonna 75-63.

Final: Wayzata 71 Champlin 69, Tournament MVP: Camden Heide, Wayzata, junior, F.

Boys Class 3A

Minnehaha is the prohibitive favorite here, but for now the story line is the 5 #2 and lower seeds that advanced to the state tournament, creating some interesting 1st round matchups. By next week, however, the talk will return to Minnehaha. The irony is that a year ago the Minnehaha people were talking up their team as the greatest in Minnesota history which, after 3 losses including one to undefeated Eden Prairie, turned out to be a pretty gross case of self-promotion. This year, there is no such talk, at least not that I've heard, but at the very least there is a very good chance that Minnehaha is the best team in Minnesota. The quite obviously have the best player in 7-footer Chet Holmgren, who is also regarded as the best 2021 player in the country. Its 70-63 win over Wayzata will be Exhibit A if both Minnehaha and Wayzata go on to win their respective championships, as is the prediction here.

The previously mentioned upsets include Byron over #1 Austin in Section 1AAA, Richfield over South St. Paul in 3, #7 Monticello over Delano in 5, and, well.... I don't consider DeLaSalle or Hibbing to be upsets, really, though neither was seeded #1. In any event, the 1st round seeds were pretty complicated with all the sectional upsets but here is where we ended up:

Byron has the unenviable task of facing Minnehaha. As noted above, #4 was a really tough seed considering they beat Big 9 champion Austin in the section final. Byron is seeded 2 spots below Mankato West in the AAA south despite the fact that West finished 4th in the Big 9, 3 spots below Austin.The Big 9's AAAA teams get killed by QRF because the conference includes those 7 AAA teams. The AAA teams get a big boost from playing the 5 AAAA teams in the conference. Still, here was as good as a head-to-head. Byron, with 2 losses, clearly should have been #2 ahead of West and Richfield with 4 losses each. Not only that but Byron may very well have the 2nd best prospect in AAA in 6-9 junior Ahjany Lee, but you won't see him on TV.

• Minnehaha 75 Byron 62.

• Mankato West and Richfield are pretty close to a toss-up but we'll take West 68-63.

• Once-beaten Alexandria snags the #1 seed in the north and clobbers 8-13, #7 seed Monticello 66-55.

• Hibbing gets the unenviable task of playing DeLaSalle; don't care if the Islanders lost 5 and were seeded #2; I don't want any part of them in round 1. Still Hibbing has a shot and in fact I'll take the Bluejackets 65-61.

In the semis, again Hibbing gets the matchup from hell. Minnehaha 77 Hibbing 64. And Mankato West escapes Alex 60-58.

Final: Minnehaha 72 Mankato West 58. Tournament MVP: duh, Chet Holmgren, Minnehaha, senior, C.

2021 State Tournament Preview--AA and A Girls

 Class AA

Conspiracy theorists might have some fun with the Class AA seeds and matchups. 1st, 3 of the best 4 teams are in the north unless you think Minnehaha (3 losses) is better than Providence (to whom it lost twice) or Duluth Marshall or Albany, with a total of just 4 losses among them. Then there's a really strange flip-flop in the south where Lake City (3 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 27 points) gets the #4 seed, and Glencoe (4 losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points) gets #3. 

As a result, here are the brackets along with the team's rating from 1 to 8 (according to me).

Albany 5 vs. Pelican Rapids 7

Minnehaha 6 vs. Glencoe-Silver Lake 8

New London Spicer 2 vs. Lake City 4

Providence 1 vs. Duluth Marshall 3

Now it's true that Albany has been rated as highly as #1 this year but call me a skeptic. Lake City was just a #3 seed in Section 1 but Section 1 is always very competitive. A key to winning a state title is not losing, and any team that gets a game that it probably can't lose is a giant step ahead of the game. Albany and Minnehaha got those games and yet they're arguably the 5th and 6th best teams in the field. Sure, there's other ways to look at these matchups. The top 6 teams are all contenders. But this is how I see it. All 4 teams in the lower bracket are going to have to win 2 very competitive games just to get to the final.

It is what it is, and here's how we think it's going to go.

As we noted, #1N Albany was rated #1 for awhile. Albany also lost just once, to unbeaten, #1 New London-Spicer, and outscored their opponents by 30 points. And they've got senior guard Paige Meyer. Still, I don't see Albany as a title contender even though there's a very good chance they can get to the final. At this stage, I see Albany beating Pelican Rapids 52-43.

As noted, Minnehaha gets a lucky break, drawing possibly the weakest team in the tournament. Glencoe has the most losses in the field, the lowest QRF and the 2nd lowest average winning margin. Minnehaha wins 59-53. 

Now the going gets really tough. New London-Spicer is unbeaten, rated #1, seeded #1S, and they draw an opponent to whom they could just as easily lose. It's a tough draw for Lake City, too, obviously, against the #1 overall seed and a team that has state tournament experience from last year, which experience Lake City lacks. The Lakers might have a better chance in the 2nd round. Here it's NLS 57 Lake City 56.

Providence went 20-1 losing only to Concordia, and outscored its opponents by 31 points, yet was just #9 in QRF. They beat state tourney entry Minnehaha twice and won 3 section games by an average of 24 points. 5-6 7th grader Maddyn Greenway, daughter of the old Viking LB, has emerged as Minnesota's newest superstar, scoring 21 ppg. I like Providence to go all the way. But Duluth Marshall has the best player in the AA field and maybe Ms. Basketball in Gianna Kneepkens, the state's leading scorer at 42 ppg. Not only that but Duluth has state tournament experience from last year as well. Still, like I said, I like Providence to go all the way and they can't do that unless they win this win. Providence 52 Duluth Marshall 49. 

In the SF, Providence 52 New London 50, and Albany 55 Minnehaha 53. Like I said, it's tight, and if you scrambled the seeds and matchups, you could just as easily have Duluth Marshall and Lake City in the final. But you don't, or won't.

Final: Providence 56 Albany 51. Tournament MVP: Paige Meyer, Albany, senior, PG.

Class A

There's a little less to argue about in Class A. Well, there's the south seeds where Houston comes in 18-0 and gets #4 and a 1st round date with defending state champion (2019) and probable 2020 champion until it was cancelled, also unbeaten, Minneota at 22-0. The problem is that Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, who ended up #3, in unbeaten, too. Mayer Lutheran, on the other hand, has 2 losses. Why not them #4? Well, Mayer Lutheran is #1 QRF, Sleepy Eye #6 and Houston just #14. So who really deserves to get Minneota in the 1st round? How about 17-5 West Central? Well, they're in the north.

So, again, it is what it is, and here is what it really is.

#1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 56 #4N West Central 47

#3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 65 #2S Mayer Lutheran 63

#1S Minneota 58 #4 Houston 52

#2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 61 #3N Cass Lake-Bena 52

In the SF, #3S Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 #1N Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 57, and

#1S Minneota 56 #2N Mountain Iron-Buhl 55

In the final, well, the best player doesn't always win, but it helps to have the best player, and the best player in this field, previously unmentioned, is Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye junior guard.

Final: Sleepy Eye St. Mary's 58 Minneota 55. Tournament MVP: Madison Mathiowetz, Sleepy Eye St. Mary's, junior, guard

2021 State Tournament Preview--Girls AAAA and AAA

Well, first of all, thank goodness there's a state tournament, and here's hoping that it is played out to the end, until we have 8 2021 Minnesota state high school basketball champions. Of course, due to COVID, we've got an unusual format. We've had 1st round games out in the hinterlands before but never quite like this:

In each class--boys 4A, 3A, 2A and A and girls 4A, 3A, 2A and A--the four southern sections--1, 2, 3 and 4--will be seeded 1 through 4, and ditto the four northern sections--which are of course 5, 6, 7 and 8. The 2 winners from the south and the 2 winners from the north will come to the Twin Cities for the semi-finals and finals. There will be no 3rd place game and there will be no all-tournament. Well, of course, there will be all-tournament teams picked by various media, including right here. But it's weird that the MSHSL will not pick an all-tournament team because they almost never give any consideration to 1st round losers anyway, even when there are consolation games. Oh well.

Among the girls there are an astonishing total of 9 unbeatens. Imagine coming into the state tournament unbeaten like, say, Houston at 18-0 and getting a #4S seed. But, that's what happened. In AAAA one of the 1st round games will match unbeatens Chaska and Stillwater. This (the 9 unbeatens) is of course in part a function of fewer games played and specifically a lack of non-conference games for some schools. So, in other words, easier-than-normal schedules.

Among the girls, you also had a relatively small number of section upsets. None in 4A though unbeaten Stillwater needed on OT to defeat East Ridge. Only one, really, in 3A. #3 Austin also advanced but that was after #1 Red Wing was COVIDed out. There were 4 in 2A and 2 in A. That made the seedings a lot easier.

So here we go.

Class AAAA Girls

With 4 unbeatens, Class 4A still remains the province of the Hopkins Royals and their 77 straight wins until somebody proves otherwise. Forest Lake drew the Royals in the 1st round, and the winner of Chaska and Stillwater, both unbeaten, will get Hopkins in the semi. Farmington, #1 in the south, is the favorite to return to the final for the 2nd straight year. Last year's final was of course cancelled. So this year could be a case of double or nothing.

Both of the 2-3 games should be great games by the way. Chaska and Stillwater, well, have I mentioned that they're unbeaten? Point guards Kennedy Sanders and Alexis Pratt are 2 of the state's best but I don't think Stillwater has anybody up front to slow down Mallory Heyer, Gopher recruit with 22 ppg. Still, this is as good as a tossup. Stillwater got its bad game out of its system in the section vs. East Ridge. Ditto Centennial and Elk River, who split a pair of regular season games. This game may be decided in the post where Centennial's Jenna Guyer and Elk's Johanna Langbehn are solid.

So in the QF, we like Hopkins by double digits, Farmington by 8, Elk River by 4, and Chaska by 2.

In the SF, Hopkins beats Chaska by a dozen, and Farmington beats Elk River by 6.

In the final, Farmington's chances will be governed by 6-5 post Sophie Hart, and whether she can single-handedly slow down Hopkins 6-footers Maya Nnaji, Nunu Agara and Taylor Woodson. It says here that's too much to ask but if Farmington's sharpshooters Peyton Blandin and Paige Kindseth manage to hit at least a half dozen 3s, then it could be closer than expected. Still, we see Hopkins getting to 80 straight wins, 67-60, and that would only be Hopkins 3rd closest game of the year. So, again, don't count your chickens. But anything other than a Hopkins title will be an upset.

AAAA MVP: Maya Nnaji, Hopkins, 6-4, junior, C

Class AAA Girls

2020 finalist Becker was rated #1 all year until losing by 1 at Holy Angels and then to AAAA Minnetonka and Hopkins before winning 2 section games by an average of 86-34 to return to the big show. The final rankings had Becker #3 behind Hill-Murray and Holy Angels, and QRF had them ranked the same way. But, make no mistake, Becker is the team to beat. Hill-Murray outscored its opponents by an average of 26 points, Holy Angels 24 and Becker 41. 

But, wait. Becker beat Big Lake by just 6 in the section. Hill-Murray beat Mahtonedi by 3. Holy Angels did win by double digits, beating Benilde by 11. Still, making AAA will be more competitive than you thought.

And consider that after the "big 3," Marshall is unbeaten after beating Waconia by 7. So let's just say "big 4," and all 4 should advance, despite the close calls.

Becker has 5 girls averaging in double figures, led by senior point guard Julia Bengtson (15 ppg). You cannot stop all of them. And they have 6 girls who made at least 10 3-pointers and shot 34 percent among them. Sophomore Maren Westin made 47 percent of her 3s. They'll beat Alexandria 73-60 in the 1st round.

Now, don't get me wrong. Holy Angels is a great team with 4 girls scoring in double figures and something of a size advantage inside. The Stars beat Becker 71-70 as Becker made just 14-of-44 3s and just 9-of-29 2s, not to mention 12-of-22 FT. The Stars are the better defensive team, but it's hard to see Becker shooting like that again. Holy Angels gets perennial power Grand Rapids in the 1st, and wins 64-54.

Hill-Murray is a more conventional team with 3 double-digit scorers, and Ella Runyon's 19 ppg is the best on any of the 3 teams. Hill-Murray gets Austin in the 1st, who has also been here before, and grinds it out 55-47.

Marshall gets St. Croix Lutheran, the only real upset winner in the field with a 1-point win over St. Paul Como in the section final. Marshall is led by Jordyn Hilgeman and her 21.5 ppg and if the top 4 teams go down to the wire, I want Hilgeman shooting the ball for the win at the buzzer. Marshall 61 St. Croix Lutheran 54.

Marshall ironically has rivalries going with all 3 of the other SF. Holy Angels upset the Tigers en route to the 2016 state title. Becker beat Marshall on a last-second 3 in the 1st round in 2018, and Marshall coach Dan Westby said, maybe we should just send Becker the next couple of state title trophies. And Marshall and Hill-Murray used to play home-and-home every year.

In the SF, Marshall renews its rivalry with Holy Angels and turns the tables on 2016, 62-57. 

In the other SF, Becker beats Hill-Murray 69-61.

Final: This one won't go to the last second but it will be a great game. Becker 77 Marshall 72. Tournament MVP: Julia Bengtson, Becker, senior, PG.

2021 Season Preview

Of course, it's a little late for a 2021 season preview. Heck, the season is way past half over. Well, I blinked and I missed it--the start of the season. It kind of got underway with a bit of a whimper. The Gophers had virtually no non-conference games, the MIAC and NSC started six weeks late, the high schools ditto and no big season-opening extravaganzas. In addition to that--and more to the point, really--my wife has cancer. Some of you know that I resigned from North Star Girls Hoops (now Prep Girls Hoops) for that reason. She's had 3-and-a-half really good years since her diagnosis, but she has not been well the past 5-6 months. But I am not complaining. We have had 46 great years together and besides that, they have now said that the cancer that flared up the past 5-6 months is gone, though there was some nerve damage that makes it very difficult for her to walk, at least at the moment. Between that and COVID, I am not allowed to go to any games. But I am tracking what's happening....

Some of you know that one of the features of Minnesota Hoops is a Player of the Year, Team of the Year, Coach of the Year and Game of the Year for every season back to 1900, and 2021 will be no exception. I have no forecast at this point as to what the Game of the Year will be, but today I am going to kick off my belated coverage of 2021 with my PoY, ToY and CoY candidates.

Player of the Year

The top player of the past 2 seasons, Paige Bueckers, is gone as far as strictly Minnesota Hoops is concerned, though it is true that once in 120 years, I picked a PoY who did not play for a Minnesota team. That was Kevin McHale back in 1986. It could happen, but I'm not going to forecast doing so. I'm going to focus on Minnesota-based players, starting at the top of the food chain--that is, professional ball--and then doing the colleges and then the high schools.

Minnesota Timberwolves--I've seen enough of the Wolves to know that the PoY is not going to be a Timberwolf, but I will put Anthony Edwards on the list. He's not the Wolves best player, yet, but Karl-Anthony Towns, who is, has missed too many games. Edwards is the new face and provides some hope for the future so he makes the list.

Minnesota Lynx--Crystal Dangerfield and Napheesa Collier are the new wave. I don't honestly think they're PoY candidates just yet, but who knows. That could change if the Lynx got to the WNBA finals, for example.

Minnesota Gopher men--Marcus Carr is the obvious choice though his performance on the road is a big negatory. 

Minnesota Gopher women--Wow. I don't see any candidates here. Too many turnovers, poor shooting percentages, getting outplayed inside, very spotty defense. There seems to be some talent but it stubbornly refuses to gel.

MIAC and Northern Sun--Right now, I like Brooke Olson of UMD and Anders Nelson of St. Thomas. New candidates could emerge from teams that get their act together,  but most of them have played so few games that it's very hard to tell who that's going to be. So I'll stick with the Swedes.

High school boys--OK, now, at last we're getting somewhere. Chet Holmgren of Minnehaha Academy is rated the #1 recruit in the nation. Bueckers was the #1 recruit last year among the girls/women but this has never happened with a Minnesota boy. Will Tschetter of Stewartville is another terrific ballplayer who might be a PoY candidate in different year, but he's still top 5.

High school girls--My top picks right now are Gianna Kneepkens of Duluth Marshall and a Utah recruit who is scoring more than 40 ppg; and also Maya Nnaji, the junior post who hopes to keep the Hopkins winning streak, now at 71 games, going even in Bueckers' absence.

The current list, then, looks like this.

1. Chet Holmgren, Minnehaha, 7-1, senior, center

2. Marcus Carr, Minnesota Gophers, 6-2, junior, guard

3. Anders Nelson, St. Thomas, 6-0, junior, guard

4. Will Tschetter, Stewartville, 6-8, senior, forward

5. Gianna Kneepkens, Duluth Marshall, 5-11, senior, wing

Team of the Year

1. Hopkins girls--they appear destined to break Fosston's record of 78 straight wins from way back in 2002 and are favored to win their 2nd straight state title (2019, 2021, no champion in 2020).

2. Minnesota Lynx--I have expectations, assuming there's a season.

3. Minnesota-Duluth women--I said when UMD hired Mandy Pearson to look out, and I was right.

4. Minnehaha boys

5. Becker girls--unless DeLaSalle gets it together, nobody is going to challenge Becker.

Coach of the Year

1. You should be able to guess that the favorite is Mandy Pearson, UMD women, currently atop the NSC at 10-0.

2. Cheryl Reeve, Minnesota Lynx, and always the best coach around.

3. Mike Dreier, New London-Spicer girls, #2 in all-time wins, now poised and favored to win a 3rd Class AA state title.

4. Karla Nelson, MN State-Moorhead women

5. John Herbrechtsmeyer, Bethel women

These are the early leaders. Stay tuned as there is sure to be a lot of jockeying as the season (hopefully) progresses.

A Love Letter to Paige Bueckers and the Class of 2020

Dear Paige and Dear Members of the Class of 2020,

First of all, congratulations to every member of the class of 2020 on the completion of your high school careers. You of all classes undoubtedly appreciate the magnitude of your accomplishment because it has occurred under such strange and historic circumstances. And, being honest, you will all face harder challenges in the years to come. But, heck, you've spent 12 years on this quest and you've passed a lot of gates to get where you are today.

But, what's even more important than where you've been is where you're going. If you have indeed had a successful high school career, the proof of that someday will be that you will still have lifelong friends with whom you've shared this journey.

Hopefully, where you're going in future years will be filled with such friends. Unfortunately, you may also experience another pandemic like the coronavirus. But, hopefully, what you will not see is another event like the killing of George Floyd and the riots and mayhem that we have had on our streets. But, this will indeed be a harder challenge than surviving high school.

So, let me specifically thank and congratulate Paige Bueckers on a truly beautiful commentary published in the Star Tribune on Sunday June 7. If you haven't seen it, hopefully you can still find it online. It suggests to me that Paige is as good of a person as she is a basketball player. And, by the way, I also have every faith and belief that most members of the class of 2020 would agree with the things that Paige articulated. "Never take the little things for granted." Whatever you've lost, "it is so important to think of others." Concerning the death of George Floyd, she said, "When will people of color stop being judged by their skin? I am white. I will never be able to understand what it's like to be a person of color, but that does not make me any less angry.... There is a need for action instead of words. Something good just has to come out of this." Wise words even for a person who has successfully navigated their K-12 education.

But, I repeat: This will be a harder challenge than what you've faced so far, maybe the hardest challenge of your life. I hope you will pardon the expression, but when I was your age, the civil rights movement came in a sense to an end. The Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act were passed by the U.S. Congress. We really thought that a new day had dawned. It turned out that the real beauty of the civil rights movement was that it shamed the racists and drove them underground. It was no longer acceptable to do and say racist things in public. Well, this lasted a good long while. But, after some 40 years, it suddenly became acceptable to be racist again. For every Paige Bueckers, there's a fellow like the one I read about in the Star Tribune the Sunday after Paige's commentary.  He owns the bar in Sauk Rapids, and it's filled with Confederate paraphernalia. It turns out that he actually spent 90 days in jail for deliberately running down a black man in his pickup truck. 90 days!

Then, in 1968, when I graduated from high school, the Vietnam War was raging. We all marched in the streets against the war and against a militaristic approach to our relations with foreign countries. And, you know, until 2001 if felt like we had made progress there as well. But, the fact is that the U.S. government abolished the military draft in 1973 and, no longer faced with the possibility of being sent to Vietnam against our will, we abandoned the fight. We decided to go about our business of getting jobs, getting married, having families.... We took our eye off the ball, and now we've gone back to a future where we deal with foreign countries mostly by virtue of our military.

The fact is that my generation, the Baby Boomers, have presided over a disastrous period in American life in which racism, inequality and militarism have expanded exponentially. Why? Well, because not all Baby Boomers believed is equality and peace, and the other guys were stronger and richer and smarter and had a lot more money than "we" did, those of us who marched for equality and peace. And, so, they won, and "we" lost.

So, Paige, don't underestimate the magnitude of the fight that you have outlined. Action, not words. Something good just has to come out of this. Paige and the class of 2020, don't be like us Baby Boomers because something good won't come out of this unless you really mean what you say, and you continue to mean what you said, year after year after year, unless you keep your eye on the ball, and unless you never ever underestimate your peers who don't share your perspective, who think that racism and violence are OK. My generation really meant it when we demanded peace and equality. We just didn't have the heart for the fight. And, we lost.

God bless everyone in the class of 2020 who wishes to bring peace and equality to all of your friends and neighbors and all Americans.

Sunny

St. Thomas Finally Movin' On Up

Wow, is it really 6, almost 7 years ago now that I wrote about St. Thomas' domination of the MIAC and its potential to move into a more competitive environment? Yes, it was. Amazing. So, it was 6.5 years after what an anonymous commenter said was a "great article, great insight" that St. Thomas is now looking to move up to D1.

My conclusion 6.5 years ago was in 2 parts:

1. "One's sense of fair play is somewhat offended by the Tommies superiority over its day to day opponents in the MIAC." This was based on, as I reported, at that time:

• 31 men's basketball titles (#1 all-time), 7 straight  and 71-3 record over 6 years
• 13 women's basketball titles (tied #1) (which have since increased to 8 of 9)

Plus:

Men's Sports

• 31 baseball titles (#1) including 9 straight
• 24 cross-country titles (#1)
• 28 ice hockey titles (#1)
• 27 indoor track titles (#1, in fact, that was 27 out of 27 since the sport was initiated)
• 29 outdoor track titles (#1) including 24 of the past 29
• 16 football titles (#4) but 3 in a row
• 9 golf titles (#4)
• 10 swimming titles (#4)
• 6 soccer titles (#4)
• 9 tennis titles (#7)

Women's Sports

• 15 cross-country titles (#1)
• 24 indoor track titles (#1) including 12 in a row and 24 of 27 overall
• 27 outdoor track titles (#1) including 7 in a row and 27 of 30
• 16 softball titles (#1) with 10 of the past 12
• 8 golf titles (#2)
• 2 hockey titles (#2)
• 1 tennis title (#3)
• 4 soccer titles (#4)
• No swimming titles

Again, this was where things stood in January 2013, and it is likely that if I totaled up 2013-2019, the disparity between St. Thomas and the rest of the MIAC would be worse.

But 2. I also concluded that, considering enrollments and endowment funds, "it is almost impossible to construct an alternative model wherein it makes sense for St. Thomas to be in D1 or D2." The point was (and is) that there are virtually no private schools of St. Thomas' size and wealth (their endowment fund at that time was $335 million) that plays football and everything else in D1, or even in D2.

Now, it's true that that statement was based on the assumption that St. Thomas wanted to play football, which assumption looks very much to be correct. Because as St. Thomas prepares for the possibility of moving up to D1, football remains very much a part of the planning.

But, before we talk about the future, let's talk about the past--that is, the recent past, wherein the MIAC, well, what? They didn't really kick St. Thomas out, as was widely reported, at least not technically, though, on the other hand, if St. Thomas hadn't resigned, at least seven other schools had said they would have left and the MIAC would have died an ignominious death. So the Tommies did the only decent thing they could do and they left, well, not voluntarily, but they left.

Yer Out

In any event, St. Thomas is out of the MIAC. As I said, at least 7 schools (and maybe 9) said they would quit the MIAC if St. Thomas stayed in. Those reportedly were St. Olaf, Hamline, Augsburg, Carleton, Macalester, St. Mary's and St. Kate's--and Gustavus and Concordia were on the fence but might have joined the exodus. So, at that point, St. Thomas did the right thing and left sort of voluntarily though they announced that it was involuntary, but anyway you get the point. It was involuntary until it was voluntary.

There's a rumor that people love underdogs, but I don't think that's true. People love a winner. And, so, in this circumstance, everybody loves St. Thomas and most everybody was madder than hell at the MIAC. Pat Borzi, writing in MinnPost, wrote that "the MIAC damaged itself....the MIAC will be known as the conference that kicked out a founding school for winning too much." Bob Collins at MPR wrote, "It's not the fault of St. Thomas...that some MIAC football programs are terminally lousy.... It's a bad look for (the) MIAC." (Wow, I thought MPR was nice people! Collins must be a Tommie!) "All St. Thomas did was be really good at sports, and also be a school that people wanted to attend." (Yeah, definitely a Tommie!)

Of course, there was the little matter of Tommies football coach Glenn Caruso running up scores, like 84-0 over Hamline and 97-0 over St. Olaf, a game in which the Tommies went for it on 4th down 5 times and got a 1st down all 5 times. Oh, and went for a 2-point conversion in the 4th quarter. When you're up 64-0 at the half, you're not supposed to pull shit like that, right?

But, there was more complaining the day St. Thomas got sacked than the day they won 97-0, at least in the Twin Cities media. Jock cliches filled the air. The other MIAC schools were "cowards." If you can't beat 'em, you just gotta get better. Chip Scoggins, not content to rip the MIAC in his own columns in the StarTrib, had to piggyback a comment on Collins' MPR rant. "The MIAC schools who forced this outcome should be embarrassed."

Well, I once said St. Thomas should stay in D3, but now, frankly, I have to say that the fellows who ought to be embarrassed are those who seem to think that colleges are just places that sponsor athletic teams. And, now, I'll add, yes, it's too bad the MIAC kicked St. Thomas out. It's too bad St. Thomas didn't make the move first. Because, as I said 6.5 years ago, "One's sense of fair play is somewhat offended by the Tommies superiority over its day to day opponents in the MIAC." And, since then, it's gotten worse, including 97-0 worse.

They say that DeLaSalle will never move up no matter how many Class AAA basketball championships they win, because those championships translate directly into dollars and cents in donations. Similarly, a 97-0 football loss probably has the opposite effect on fund-raising from alumni and the so-called philanthropic community, which is to say, old guys who definitely don't lean toward underdogs.

So, what really makes sense to me is that this was not fundamentally about sports. Of course, the MIAC was its own worst enemy. I mean, I think they said it was about competitive equity. They couldn't really come right out and admit it was about money. It was and is about survival. Because, well, as Borzi reported, "Don't be surprised if an MIAC school closes or merges with another in the next ten years." The cost of education is skyrocketing and, as a result, it is feared that the number of kids going to college could decline and soon. And, those who do go to college are already voting with their wallets (that is, their loan portfolios) for business schools and engineering and everything except the liberal arts. So, some liberal arts colleges are struggling, and some will be closing--again, soon.

So, you're the president of such a university. Maybe your bread and butter is your law school and then, one day, St. Thomas says, we're gonna open a law school. Or, your bread and butter is a nursing school and then, one day, St. Thomas says, we're gonna open a nursing school. Or, for that matter, your the "sister-school" to St. Thomas and one day they say, We're gonna go coed.

At that point, St. Thomas is no longer a friendly competitor. Not off the field. Not on the field. And people have the nerve to say, if you can't beat St. Thomas, well, you just gotta get better. Sports cliches. Dumb jock cliches. A lot of these schools don't have two nickels to rub together, and you think they should take money out of the classrooms to make their football team better? Wow.

And then, on top of all of that, there's 84-0 and 97-0. Sorry. I always liked underdogs, and I am so sympathetic to those 7 or 9 presidents who said, if St. Thomas stays, we're leaving. Much of course was made of the fact that St. Thomas was a founder of the MIAC about 100 years ago. Well, it was about 6 years after that that Carleton was winning everything. They were beating Big 10 teams in basketball and football. They were winning everything. And, so, they left to go play tougher competition. (Of course, the massive irony is that at that time that meant moving to the Midwest Conference of Beloit and Grinnell and Knox and Ripon who, some of you will recognize are now the conference that Macalester has joined in football because it's looking for weaker competition.) Well, things change. Carleton is now back in the MIAC. And just because St. Thomas was there 100 years ago at the founding doesn't mean it's the right conference for them anymore.

Now, before I continue, I have to say. There are people at St. Thomas, and you know their names, who know I've always been a supporter of Tommies athletics. But, I'm just sayin.' It was time to move on. St. Thomas would be no better and no worse off if it had been the one to initiate the change,  but the MIAC would be better off if it had.

And, So, the Future

As I said back in 2013, Marquette's got nothing that St. Thomas hasn't got. Except a football team. Oh, and a hockey team. Still, St. Thomas is gonna be better than Marquette at everything except men's and women's basketball by year 5 in D1. Men's and women's basketball, maybe year 10. The problem is that being better than Marquette in football is not a good measure because, again, they ain't got one.

So, anyway, St. Thomas has been invited into the Summit League and everybody I know at St. Thomas wants to go that way. The Summit League is North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Omaha, Oral Roberts, Denver, Fort Wayne and Western Illinois.

The Tommies need a waiver from the NCAA to go directly from D3 to D1. Nobody's ever done it. The NCAA says it should be a 12-14 year process. Seriously? Then jumping directly must be impossible. Except nobody thinks it's impossible. What's impossible is how the hell anybody came up with 12 to 14 years! So, even St. Thomas folks says it's 50-50 at best that they're gonna get that waiver. But, if they do, they'll do fine in the Summit. Not as in winning 70 percent of the titles but as in winning 10 percent, which would be their fair share. In 10 years, maybe more. They'll do fine.

Except the Summit doesn't do football or hockey. So several Summit schools already play football in the Pioneer and/or the Missouri Valley. The Pioneer, which does not give football scholarships, includes Drake, Butler and Valpo. The MVC, which does, includes 3 of the Dakota teams. So maybe you start in the Pioneer and, if it goes well, move up?

In hockey, 7 teams are leaving the WCHA after 2021--Mankato, Bemidji, Bowling Green, Ferris, Lake Superior, Michigan Tech and Northern Michigan. Perfecto mundo. Meanwhile, the Lady Tommies hockey team is having discussions with the WCHA which still consists of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Mankato, Bemidji, UMD and St. Cloud. So hockey, not a problem.

As I said 6.5 years ago, football--specifically, scholarship football--is the one really big nut in moving to D1. So start out in the Pioneer, and all the rest is doable.

Still it's hard to escape the feeling that the D3 Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (WIAC) isn't a better fit. The WIAC is nothing like the MIAC. It is all of the UW satellite campuses--more like Mankato, St. Cloud, Duluth, Bemidji, etc. Compared to the MIAC it is bigger schools with bigger athletic budgets, better facilities, better coaches, better programs, and utterly unafraid to compete with St. Thomas. They are said to be more than willing to accept St. Thomas as a member. If that happened, the Tommies could keep on playing St. John's every year--and I mean St. John's (Collegeville). So, if, in the end, that NCAA waiver isn't forthcoming, well, that just might be a gift that keeps on giving.

But, if it is, then St. Thomas is going to do just fine. In fact, I'll go one better. In about 25 years, I would expect to see St. Thomas moving into the Big East.