Friday, November 18, 2011

Pass the Ball to Trevor

Trevor Mbakwe made 16-of-18 FT, coming up 1 short of the school record for most FT in 1 game, and the Gophers did just (barely) enough of everything else to defeat Fairfield 67-57.

The Numbers Game

Other than at the FT line, this game was as close to a statistical dead heat as you're ever going to see. Take the possession game: Minnesota had 10 offensive rebounds, 22 turnovers and 57 possessions. Fairfield had 11 offensive rebounds, 20 turnovers and 60 possessions. Or the shooting contest: The Gophers shot 46 percent from the field for a total of 19 FG, 52 percent on 2s for a total of 17, and made 2 3-point FG. Fairfield shot 42 percent for 20 FG, 56 percent for 18 2s, and made 2 3-pointers.

On defense, Minnesota had 20 rebounds, 10 steals and 4 blocks, Fairfield 14, 10 and 3. On offense, the Gophers had 9 assists and Fairfield 10.

Actually, dig a little deeper and you can find some bigger differentials. Shockingly, Fairfield out-scored the Gophers in the paint 32-24 (that, of course, does not include FT), while Minnesota had a 16-8 edge on 2nd chance points (despite the offensive rebounds being about equal). The Gophers scored 19 points off turnovers, Fairfield 14 (despite the turnovers being about equal). But, each team scored but 4 fast-break points.

But here, finally, is the 2nd reason the Gophers won this game. Bench points: Minnesota 25, Fairfield 5. Once again, a fresher Gopher team pulled away down the stretch.

The lead varied from 2 points to 5 through 36-32 at 15:16. It varied from 4 to 8 through 45-41 at 9:48. And it varied from 6 to 9 right up to 65-57 at 0:35. Subtle differences. But while the Stags stayed within striking distance, they never got a little run that might have gotten them within more than 2 possessions of the Gophers.

Mbakwe's Near-Record

Mbakwe's FT shooting so far this year is one of the most astonishing achievements I've ever seen. He got to the line 202 times last year, more than twice as much as anybody else. But he made only 127 or 63 percent, leaving 75 points on the table. So far this year, he's 46-for-58 (79 percent) and in his last 2 games he's an unconscious 28-for-31 (90 percent). Suddenly teams have to think twice about sending him to the FT line.

His 16 FT last night is just 1 less than Larry Mikan scored against Purdue in January 1969. (I saw that game.)

Everything Else

The bench was "everything else" when it comes to reasons why the Gophers won this game. 1st that means Oto Osieniks. Not only did he make the Gophers only 2 3-point baskets on the night, but they came at the most opportune moment. Fairfield had scored 3 straight points to get within 4 when Oto hit his 1st 3 from the left corner on a feed from Maverick Ahanmisi. That tied the Gophers' largest lead of the night at 7, making it 42-35 at 11:59.

Just 40 seconds later, Oto hit his 2nd 3 from the right corner on an inside-out feed from Mbakwe. That gave the Gophers' their largest lead of the night at 45-37. Fairfield never got closer than 6 again.

Then there are Ahanmisi and Julian Welch, who played 30 minutes between them, and who were on the floor together down the stretch. Ahanmisi scored 5 points while Welch did not score, and they had just 2 assists to go with 3 turnovers. But, consider that Andre and Austin Hollins played 50 minutes between them and, yes, they scored 20 points. But they also had just 2 assists and 9 turnovers. So clearly Tubby was looking to do a better job of protecting the ball down the stretch, and Ahanmisi and Welch were his strategy for doing that.

The Hollinses

Still, the Hollinses both had their moments, too. Minnesota hung a 9-1 run on the Stags to close out the 1st half, and Austin scored 6 and Andre 3 of those 9 points. And the game's most spectacular play came when Austin made a 1-handed get a Ralph Sampson miss late in the 1st half, and slammed it through all in 1 motion.

Austin also put the final nail in Fairfield's coffin at 1:42 of the 2nd, a jumper from the right slot on a feed from Andre. Fairfield had missed a 3 at 2:05 that would have brought them back within 4. Instead the lead went back to 9 inside of 2 minutes, pretty much putting it out of reach of the Stags.

What's nice is they both score in different ways. Andre hit a "j" and then a driving layup for a 2 + 1, both out of the half-court offense, and added 7-of-8 FT. Austin got 2 steals + fast break layups, a dunk off the offensive board and a 2-pointer out of the set offense.

Other Stuff

Both Rodney Williams and Ralph Sampson left the game late in the 2nd with ankle injuries. Williams went up for a block at 9:53, hit the floor hard and came up limping. Tubby got him out of the game at the next stoppage, and he never returned. Sampson's name last appears in the play-by-play at 3:45, so it was shortly after that that he left the game and made an immediate bee-line to the locker room. He returned to the bench, but not the game, a minute later.

Tubby's rotation tonight:

Center--Sampson 28 minutes Eliason 4 Mbakwe 8
Power Forward--Mbakwe 26 Oto 10 Ingram 4
Small Forward--Rodney 21 Oto 2 Coleman 8 Armelin 9
Point Guard--Andre 20 Maverick 16 Welch 4
Shooting Guard--Austin 30 Welch 10

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