Thursday, November 1, 2018

What Can We Expect of the Minnesota Timberwolves After Derrick Rose's Big Game?

The 2018-2019 basketball season started in earnest for me with a trip to Target Center on Wednesday night, and a visit to Williams Arena on Thursday. A Gophers win over UMD seemed like a sure thing, and indeed the Gophers won easily 109-53. Tomorrow I’ll have a post about that game.

A Timberwolves win over Utah seemed like something less of a sure thing—but little did the Jazz know that it was Throwback Night. The Timberwolves wore an older-style uniform and showed old-time highlights on the Jumbrotron, and such. 

But, hey, the real throwback turned out to be the 2011 NBA MVP, Derrick Rose. You have probably heard by now that Rose dropped a career-high 50 points on the Jazz in a 128-125 Timberwolves win. Rose played 41 minutes, making 19-of-31 FG including 4-of-7 3s, and 8-of-11 FT, with 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals and an unlikely and possibly game-saving block of a Dante Exum 3 at the final buzzer. 

You have probably also heard that what’s-his-name had decided he didn’t feel like playing Wednesday night, and that both Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones were held out with minor injuries. Rose was the only point guard available to the Wolves last night, which means that for 7 harrowing minutes the unlikely pairing of C.J. Williams and James Nunally shared the ball-handling duties. 

You also know that Rose tore his left ACL in 2012, then suffered injuries to his right knee in 2013 and 2015. The Chicago Bulls traded him to New York in 2016, but in 2017 he injured his left knee again. He then signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2017 but played in just 16 games because of ankle injuries. In 2018, he was traded to the Utah Jazz, who quickly placed him on waivers. Over the course of the past 7 NBA seasons, he played in less than half his team’s games and saw his scoring average drop from 22.5 ppg in his three peak seasons to just 8 ppg last year.

The Wolves signed him as a free agent last March, and Rose responded by scoring 14 ppg in 24 minutes in the 4-1 playoff loss to the Houston Rockets. Still, did anybody, including coach Tom Thibodeau, think that Rose could play more than 24 minutes on those crippled, 30-year-old legs of his, and be the leader of a good NBA team? Well, maybe Thibs thought that. Maybe Rose thought that. I don’t know anybody else who thought that.

And, after seeing him score those 50 points last night, I still don’t know. Is it realistic to think that he’s back? All the way back? All the way healthy? I don’t know. Utah is reputed to be this great defensive team, but their perimeter D turned out to be pretty soft. Rose will face better defenders more nights than not. He was shooting 40 percent and 26 percent on the 3 until last night, and was playing 28 minutes a night. Will the real Derrick Rose please stand up? I think the real Derrick Rose will play 28 minutes and shoot 40 percent, though maybe better than 26 percent on the 3-ball the rest of the way. This in no way diminishes what an incredible game he had. It’s just that it’s unlikely to happen again.

The other big gun was Karl-Anthony Towns who scored 28 points with 16 rebounds. But, he struggled mightily to stop Utah post Rudy Gobert—no, check that, he could notstop Utah post Rudy Gobert defensively. Gobert scored 22 points and added 13 boards, and Utah had 19 offensive boards and 28 2ndchance points overall. The Wolves had 7 offensive boards. But, the bigger issue is that 27 of Utah’s 47 FG were layups. Not all of that is on Towns, of course, but the Wolves inside defense is pretty terrible.

Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins scored 19 points on 8-of-17 shooting, and made some tough shots. But, that is just about the sum total of his contributions. I can’t figure out why he was on the court down the stretch when what the Wolves really needed to win was a stop. 

Rookie Josh Okogie adds some badly needed energy. He was the Wolves best defender and made Utah’s top scorer, Donovan Mitchell, work for his 26 points. Okogie was the Wolves top +/- player at +12. Wiggins was the Wolves only 10+ minute player who was a minus at -9. Okogie may be the best draft pick the Wolves have ever made. Not necessarily the best player they’ve ever picked, but the best pick—a player with all-star upside at the #20 overall pick. He gives a team hope that you can build through the draft without having to tank first. 

So, What Should We Expect from the Timberwolves in 2018-2019

Of course, the Wolves expect to have Teague available most nights and a lineup of Towns, Taj Gibson, Okogie, Teague and Rose—or, if you prefer, start Wiggins but play Okogie for 30 minutes—might be able to compete in this league, though they’re frankly going to have to outscore people like they did last night. And, where would any depth come from?

But, hey, I’m trying to be optimistic here. After last night, let’s be optimistic. The Wolves are 4-4. They’re 3-3 with what’s-his-name in the lineup and 1-1 without him. In order for the Wolves to be better than .500, two things have to happen. Rose is going to have to continue to play like the MVP that he once was. Could happen. And what’s-his-name is going to decide he wants to be a decent teammate, or the Wolves will have to get a comparable player in trade. Being honest, those 2 things are not going to happen.

So, with the Wolves defense and rebounding being what it is—what it was last night—.500 would seem most likely to be the upside for the Wolves in 2019. The downside? I don’t even want to think about that.

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