Friday, November 30, 2018

Gopher women's recruiting in Minnesota 2018


I see that people want to read about the Gopher women. A piece I wrote about Gopher women’s recruiting over the years—specifically, about its chronic neglect of girls from Minnesota—is one of the most-read posts here on Minnesota Hoops. The only problem with that is it’s a 5-year-old piece. Merlene Stollings hadn’t even come on board yet, much less Lindsay Whalen.

So, I guess an update is in order. What has happened in the 5 years since I wrote that piece and what is likely to happen now that Lindsay is the boss at the U?

Well, 1stthings 1st. The Gophers' record of recruiting Minnesota girls got worse over the past 5 years. As bad as it had been, it got worse under Stollings, who never recruited a single Minnesota girl to the U in her 4 years here. Carlie Wagner (New Richland-Hartland-Ellendale-Geneva, class of 2014) had already committed to the U when Stollings arrived. Thank goodness she stuck by that commitment. The Gophers needed her and she proved herself to be a Big 10 caliber player, no question. 

The Minnesota class of 2013 had been one of the best ever, at least at the top—Nia Coffey (Hopkins) went on to score 20 ppg at Northwestern and is now playing in the WNBA; Seanna Johnson (DeLaSalle) scored 16 ppg at Iowa State as a senior; Rebekah Dahlman (Braham), well, she’s had a checkered college career with injury trouble both at Vandy and at DePaul, where she is now in her 6th college season. Jessica January (Richfield) had a more conventional (4-year) career at DePaul, and a very successful one. 

The class of 2014 was one of the deepest ever with 13 Power 5 D1 recruits, of whom about 6 or 7 had productive careers. They would include Wagner, Chase Coley (Mpls. Washburn and Iowa), Kenisha Bell (Kennedy and Marquette, then/now Minnesota), Cayla McMorris (Park Center and Wisconsin), Tia Elbert (Tartan and Marquette, then Indiana) and Sydney Lamberty (Park and Creighton). Bryanna Fernstrom (Chisago Lakes) started at Iowa State, then she also transferred back to Minnesota. Yet, other than Carlie Wagner, the Gophers initially struck out on these 2 stellar classes. And, that’s on Pam Borton, to be sure. 

Bell, of course, came back to Minnesota, where she had initially committed. It was a well-known secret that Bell hated Grace Coughlin of Edina, and so what did Borton do? She already had Bell and then she recruited Coughlin. As soon as Coughlin committed to Borton and the Gophers, Bell decommitted. It was only after Coughlin transferred out that Bell came back. All of that was due to the remarkable ineptitude of Borton as a recruiter.

And the Gophers’ failure to recruit anybody from the class of 2015 was really on Borton, too. Stollings came in 2014 by which time most of the 2015s were committed or down to their short list, and the Gophers were already not going to get anybody that mattered. In hindsight, of course, the only player that really mattered was Alex Wittinger, the power forward from Delano who is still at Illinois and is an all-Big 10 caliber player.

But, 2016 and 2017 and 2018 are on Stollings, though it’s true that these were not super classes. In 2016, everybody knew that Shakopee’s Taylor Koenen was big-time and once North Carolina came calling, the Gophers were not going to be in the running there. Of course, everybody thought Nia Hollie was a great recruit (well, modesty does not quite permit me to say who demurred from that evaluation), but the Gophers were never in the running. (Hollie is now, as a junior, averaging 2 ppg in 15 minutes at Michigan State.) Actually, the other big get in 2016 would have been Abi Scheid of Elk River and now of Northwestern, where she is scoring 16 ppg with 8 boards as the starting post. (Again, I can’t say: Who was that masked man who kept touting Scheid as a great prospect?) Other stars from that class—Jamie Ruden (Rochester JM and Arizona State), Kiara Russell (Osseo and Arizona State), Hollie, Andrayah Adams (St. Paul Como and St. John’s but now Texas Tech—yes, that’s right, she’s now playing for Merlene Stollings)—have all been a bit of a disappointment, along with Hollie.

The class of 2017 still shows some promise. Kristin Scott (Kasson-Mantorville and Iowa State) is averaging 9 points on 58 percent shooting and 7 boards in 19 minutes as a backup post. Rachel Ranke (Eastview and Kansas State) and Annika Jank (Edina and Colorado) are also scoring 9 ppg each in their sophomore years. All of them—plus, again, Koenen and Scheid—would look good in maroon and gold, but Stollings never had any interest in any of them.

Then there’s the 2018s! Again, not a great class, except that, well, Sam Haiby from Moorhead, who was my pick (and only mine, apparently) for MN Ms. Basketball last year, is the leading scorer already, as a freshman, for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Sometime in the next 4 years—and, one can only hope it only happens once or twice—she is going to torch the Minnesota Gophers. Carmen Backes (Chisago Lakes and Wisconsin) and Yokie Lee (Byron and Kansas State) are not playing due to injuries, but the upside remains. Haiby and Backes should be Gophers.

So that brings us up to the present, well, almost. I wrote a piece for Northstar Girls Hoops—oh, well, it’s called Girls Prep Hoops now—when Lindsay was hired at the U. I said that Lindsay would recruit Minnesota, unlike at least the past 2 Gopher coaches. And she proved me correct with the rapid signing of Sara Scalia, 2019 guard from Stillwater. Well, on second thought, that’s not proof. It’s a trend, a tendency, but proof? Is Lindsay going to recruit Minnesota better than Borton, better than Stollings? 

Well, yes. But will she recruit Minnesota as well as she should? Still yes, but one recruit is not proof. The rest of the 2019s are all spoken for, so you won’t find proof among the 2019s. They came too soon--that is, Lindsay came too late--for the 2019s to be a really good test.

So then there’s the 2020s, and another case that is just flat out not a fair test, and that is Paige Bueckers (Hopkins), who is perhaps the greatest player ever to come out of Minnesota. Lindsay at least got Minnesota into the Bueckers sweepstakes for awhile, but now it looks a lot like Bueckers will be going to Connecticut or Notre Dame. 

Now, the 2020s (after Bueckers) are not a great class but there is still some worthwhile talent there, and if Lindsay signs a couple of them, that will be at least the start of some proof that Lindsay values Minnesota girls as a part of a renewed Gopher program. After Bueckers, the list starts with guard Lauren Jensen (Lakeville North), who would be a pretty good consolation prize. Lindsay is also thought to be recruiting 6-2 guard (yes, you read that right) Alyssa Ustby of Rochester Lourdes. Kenzie Kramer, another guard from St. Michael-Albertville; Mallory Brake, a wing from Hastings; and Liza Karlen, a post from Stillwater, are also highly regarded. Mia Curtis of Minnehaha and Patience Williams of Benilde-St. Mary’s might be thought of as late bloomers who still have some upside. Again, I am hopeful Lindsay will sign 2 or 3 of these girls—not just as proof that she values Minnesota girls, but because I think they are all potential difference-makers even at the Big 10 level.

The class of 2021 looks maybe even better—well, setting aside Paige Bueckers for the moment, but of course they’re younger and so we’re talking potential now, not proven and demonstrated ability to play Power 5 ball. Still, you’ve got 6-4 Sophia Hart of Farmington and 6-2 Erin Lamb of Stewartville at the 5 and the 4. You’ve got 6-foot wings Jenna Johnson (Wayzata), Nora Francois (DeLaSalle), Kendall Coley (St. Louis Park) and Cassidy Carson (Eastview)—that is, 6-footers and bigger, with perimeter skills. And you’ve got guards Adalia McKenzie (Park Center)—yes, those McKenzies—and Jade Hill (Mpls. South)—yes, those Hills—so, in other words, some pretty good genetics there. I don’t know which of these 8 are going to be the best, but I would hope Lindsay would sign a couple-three of these players as well. Right now, the potential is there.

Then, the 2022s! Here is a class like the 2013s, with some incredible top-tier talent—6-3 Maya Nnaji of Hopkins is rated #1 in that class. Her brother Zeke, who is 6-11, just committed to Arizona. Hopkins guard Amaya Battle isn’t the second coming of Paige Bueckers, but she is potentially the 2nd best guard since Wagner and Bell in 2014. And 6-2 Mallory Heyer (Chaska) is the real deal, she scored 35 in Chaska’s opener the other night. She is a freshman. I have seen photos of her chatting with Lindsay. 

So, in short, there is plenty of talent in Minnesota, just as there has always been, and of course that is just what Borton and Stollings managed to ignore for the better part of a decade. All the indicators right now are that Whalen is working Minnesota very hard. She is working to establish relationships with kids and parents and with high school coaches, all of which her predecessors proved to be really, really dreadful at. But the only proof that really matters is that between now and 2022—you’ve got to give her 5 years—Lindsay will sign at least a half dozen Minnesota girls, and they will prove to have been the right girls, and the Minnesota Gophers will win under coach Whalen just like they won with player Whalen 15 years ago. Personally, I believe it can happen and that it will happen. But, there are no guarantees. It will take not just hard work and belief, but it will require a little bit of luck, which is something Gopher sports seems to have had very little of. But, wait, we can’t think that way. It can happen and it will happen. Because if not—if Lindsay can’t do it—then it probably can’t be done.

Just for Fun—the Best Minnesotans 2013-2022

The point being that every one of the 8 women listed here who did not play for Minnesota, could have played for the Gophers and would have made the Gophers better.

Center—Abi Scheid, Elk River (2016), Northwestern, 16 ppg-8 reb
Power Forward—Alex Wittinger, Delano (2015), Illinois, 15 ppg-10 reb
Small Forward—Nia Coffey, Hopkins (2013), Northwestern, 20 ppg-10 reb
Point Guard—Kenisha Bell, Kennedy (2014), Minnesota, 20 ppg-6 reb-4 asts-3 stls
Shooting Guard—Tyseanna Johnson, DeLaSalle (2013), Iowa State, 16 ppg-8 reb-3 asts

2ndTeam

Center/Power Forward—Chase Coley, Mpls. Washburn (2014), Iowa, 11 ppg-6 reb
Small Forward—Taylor Koenen, Shakopee (2016), North Carolina, 8 ppg-7 reb
Combo Guard—Sam Haiby, Moorhead (2018), Nebraska, 11 ppg
Shooting Guard—Carlie Wagner, NRHEG (2014), Minnesota, 19 ppg-5 reb
Shooting Guard—Sydney Lamberty, Park (2014), Creighton, 12 ppg-6 reb-5 asts

And looking ahead, here are some people I would hope to see in maroon and gold someday.

Center—Maya Nnaji, Hopkins (2022)
Power Forward—Mallory Heyer, Chaska (2022)
Small Forward—Alyssa Ustby, Rochester Lourdes (2020)
Point Guard—Paige Bueckers, Hopkins (2020)
Shooting Guard—Lauren Jensen, Lakeville North (2020)

2ndTeam

Center—Aliza Karlen, Stillwater (2020)
Forward—Jenna Johnson, Wayzata (2021)
Wing—Nora Francois, DeLaSalle (2021)
Point Guard—Amaya Battle, Hopkins (2022)
Shooting Guard—Kendall Coley, St. Louis Park (2021)

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