As you may or may not recall, we picked the Gopher women to finish 7th in the Big 10 at 9-9. To be honest, that seemed just a tad generous as they finished 9-9 a year ago and of course lose their best player and playmaker in Kenisha Bell; and they lose co-starters (you might say) in Annalese Lamke and Irene Garrido Perez.
But, then, hey, the media jumped in and picked the Gophers to finish 5th this year, and then ESPN ranked them #17 in the nation. So, that sure makes me look a jerk.
The Gopher women return the 6th most points (counting Gadiva Hubbard’s 2018 numbers), the 5th most rebounds, the 7thmost assists and the 6th most minutes from a team that had the 5th most wins overall (but the 6th most wins in the conference) a year ago. So, if that doesn’t sound like the middle of the pack, I don’t know what does. And, then, there’s this. At 40%, the Gophers return the 11th best shooting percentage in the conference. And, therein lies the problem as well, of course, as the opportunity. All of those ordinals add up to 6.57, somewhere between 6th and 7th. The media has them 5th, ESPN 2nd in the Big 10!
Well, I hope like hell that they’re right and I’m wrong. And I can see how they (ESPN) did it…almost. They said, uh, Lindsay Whalen! Then they said, Destiny Pitts, 1st team all-Big 10 according to the Big 10 media. Then they said, well, no, they didn’t. That’s all they said in the online article I saw that had them at #17 in the nation. Lindsay and Destiny. So, I dunno that they really did much of a deep dive on this. And we are going to do a deep dive. Deep breath, and here we go.
Bell shot 40% for her career and 31% on 3s. But, again, she was the Gophers best player, scoring 20 ppg in both her junior and senior seasons. Lamke started as the Gophers went big the first half of the year (actually 21 of 32 games), then Perez started 14 games on the perimeter later on as the Gophers went smaller and quicker. Lamke shot 52%, Perez 38%.
Meanwhile, the returnees Pitts and Hubbard have each shot 41% and 35-36% on 3s over 2 years with the Gophers. Taiye Bello shoots 52%. Jasmine Brunson shot 37 and 23% last year. Mercedes Staples shot 34% in limited minutes, while Kehinde Bello and Barbora Tomancova shot 50% and 32% in really limited minutes.
So, I figured, if all of the perimeter players could up their shooting percentage by 5 points—if Pitts and Hubbard improved to 46%, and Brunson improved to 42% and Staples to 39%--well, then maybe 5th place is not out of reach. But, frankly, I figured that wasn’t going to happen, so I had them in 7th place. Jerk.
The Big Four
Regardless of all of that, the team’s strength figures to be returning wings Gadiva Hubbard and Destiny Pitts, who have each shot 41% and 35-36% over 2 years with the Gophers. Both are more catch-and-shoot type players, especially Pitts, who made the media’s pre-season 1st within reach.
And, then, 6-2 Taiye Bello shoots 52%, though she doesn’t take a lot of shots. She is, of course, a world class rebounder with an uncanny anticipation going after the ball off the offensive glass. But, she scored 10 ppg in high school. She is not going to be a big scorer. Don’t get me wrong, however. I had Bello on my pre-season 1st all-Big 10 team, with Pitts on the 2nd team.
But, perhaps the key player will be Jasmine Brunson. She is the 3rd returning starter, and she’s the one who is probably going to have a new role as the primary ball handler. Last year she scored 8 ppg on 37 and 23% shooting, so I don’t know that you’re really looking for her to take many more shots. She turned it over 2X per game as the secondary ball handler, so you hope she can cut down on her turnovers per touch. And, most important of all, can she get the ball to Pitts and Hubbard and Bello on their spots?
And, then, who’s gonna be the 5th starter? 6-2 sophomore post Barbora Tomancova, 6-2 senior forward Kehinde Bello and 5-10 sophomore guard Mercedes Staples are the other returnees. Staples probably has the most upside. She was a 4-star recruit, #64 in her class, the #17 point guard coming out of high school. But, seriously, she is not a point guard. She didn’t show a lot of quickness last year, so her role seems to be catch-and-shoot wing, which is what Pitts and Hubbard are already doing. Maybe Tomancova, who missed most of last year with an injury. She scored 5 ppg for the Czechs in an U18 international tournament not so long ago. Still.
The Newcomers
All 3 could get passed up by the freshmen and/or other newcomers. They’re not a highly rated group, but they are a big group and there is some talent here. First, there are 3 bigs. I’m not sure whether any of them are going to play a lot as freshmen.
• Klarke Sconiers, 6-2, Queens, NY. 3-stars, #18 post, 12 ppg-12 boards with a NY state champ.
• Justice Ross, 6-0, Des Moines, IA. 3-stars, #33 wing, 16-5-4-2-2 as a senior.
• Grace Cumming, 6-3, also Des Moines. 3-stars, #42 post, 11 ppg-10 boards as a senior.
And then there’s the guards. I feel pretty sure that these 2 will play as freshmen.
• Jasmine Powell, 5-6, Detroit. 4-stars, #78 in her class, 18-8-6 as a senior with 2 state titles.
• Sara Scalia, 5-10, Stillwater, MN. 3-stars, #56 guard, 23-4-4-3. A 3-point bomber with some quickness, some ball skills, could be a versatile player. Now, I haven’t seen Powell, but by reputation, at least, Powell is ahead of Scalia.
And then there’s the newcomers who aren’t freshmen. Here, I have no real idea of what the upside is, though Sissoko’s resume is encouraging, assuming she’s not still hurting.
• Kadi Sissiko, 6-2, sophomore, Paris and Syracuse. She was rated the #10 overall player and the #2 guard in her class of 2018. She scored 9 points on 43% shooting for France in an U20 European tournament not so long ago. She went just 3-2 in 10 minutes at Syracuse and had a leg injury. Is she still the player who was rated #10 in her class? I have no idea, but it would seem that there’s some upside there.
• Masha Adaschyk, 5-11, junior, Belarus. She went 13-5-2-1 in junior college, shooting 49 and 39%. So, is there some upside there? Who knows what kind of competition that was against?
A Starting Lineup
So long about February, here’s a guess as to who’ll be doing what.
Bigs—T. Bello starts, Sissoko is the backup.
Wing/Big—Pitts starts, Sissoko is the backup and plays with Bello when Lyndsey wants to go big.
Wings—Hubbard starts with Staples as the backup.
Point Guard—Long about February I think Powell may have moved into the primary ballhandler role. Brunson is the obvious backup except of course she starts at the other guard spot.
Combo Guard—This is the role Brunson had last year and long about February she’ll return to that role. Earlier in the year she might be at the “1” with Staples starting here. Later on, Staples backs up at the wing and at the combo guard. Scalia will also get some minutes here.
So, to answer my earlier question: I expect Powell to be the 5th starter by year’s end, and Sissoko and Staples are #6 and #7. If, as a group they can raise the Gophers’ shooting percentage from last year’s 42 percent (and the returnees’ composite of 40 percent), then 5th place is not out of reach. But, even 5th place is based on Powell and Sissoko realizing much of their upside potential this year. We have no real idea if that’s a realistic expectation.
So, we’ll say it again. 9-9 and 7th place seems more likely. And, if I’m totally off base about Powell and Sissoko, if they’re not ready and if Scalia is not ready, then 8-10 or 7-11 is not out of the question.
Of course, I haven’t answered the question of how the Gophers rise to #17 nationally. Well, all of the above. Pitts, Hubbard, Brunson and Staples all shoot 10% better than last year, and Powell, Sissoko and Scalia all play like veterans in their 1st year as Gophers.
Overall, I’d say it’s 50-50 that the Gophers go 9-9. There’s a 25% chance that they’re better than that, and a 25% chance they’re not that good.
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