2019-2020 Season preview: Girls Class AA

Thank goodness for Class A and AA where there is some suspense for the coming year. Still, there’s a pretty solid favorite in Class AA. Not as solid as Hopkins and DeLaSalle among the big schools. But Sauk Centre will be very hard to beat in 2020.

OK, last year Albany and point guard Paige Meyer shocked the Mainstreeters in the Section 6AA final. It was only the 2^nd time in 10 years that Sauk had failed to get to state. And, of course, they are the 2018 state champions with that awesome 33-0 record. So, they know how to win. Last year they were 26-3 and they have nine letterwinners back, led by tough, versatile 5-10 senior PF/SF/SG/PG (that’s how she’s listed in the Breakdown Guidebook, and to be sure she can do it all). Then there’s the 6-1/5-11 pair of Michaela and Julia Dammann, who scored 12 ppg each last year. And Megan Klaphake and McKenna Westby make five returning starters. They will be very, very tough to beat.

But, that’s what maybe Proctor or Duluth Marshall might be able to do. Proctor returns their top 6 from a state tournament team led by 5-10 guard Sam Pogatchnik, a Bemidji State recruit. And Duluth Marshall has one of the state’s top one-two punches regardless of class in guard Grace Kirk and forward Gianna Kneepkens, who combined for 60 ppg between them last year.

After the big 4, it’s pretty wide open, with Lake City, Pine City, Fergus Falls, Minnehaha and Redwood Valley all darkhorses to keep your eyes on. Let’s look at it by section.

Section 1—Stewartville has been regarded as the favorite but now comes word that Erin Lamb's basketball playing days are done. So, a young, deep, powerful group from Lake City (#7) now assumes the favorite's role.

Section 2—Norwood Young America (#12) has been to 3 of the past 5 state tournaments and appears poised to return after missing a year ago. Still, this is one of the widest-open sections with 5 or 6 plausible contenders.

Section 3—This is another wide open section. Perennial power New London-Spicer (#5) is in the mix along with Eden Valley-Watkins (#6) who, like Stewartville, have had a great run these past 4-5 years without getting to state. Redwood Valley (#12) surprised everybody last year and could do so again.

Section 4—Defending state champion Minnehaha (#11) lost 4 starters but may have the nucleus of another state champion in the 8^th and 9^th grades. 

Section 5—Nobody from Section 5AA is rated so it’s another wide-open section. We like Minneapolis North.

Section 6—Sauk Centre (#1) is of course favored, but Pine City (#8) is a threat.

Section 7—Proctor (#3) and Duluth Marshall (#4) will duke it out, but Mesabi East (#14) is also a threat.

Section 8—Three defending champions are here—Fergus Fall (#9) drops down from 8AAA. Roseau (#15) seeks to return in 8AA. Menahga moves up from 5A. But the big threat to Fergus and Roseau is Hawley (#10).

If all goes according to Hoyle, your state tournament matchups would look like this.

Sauk Centre vs. Minneapolis North
Proctor vs. Minnehaha
New London-Spicer vs. Norwood Young America

Lake City vs. Fergus Falls

The top seniors

PG—Grace Kirk, Duluth Marshall

Wing—Alyssa Ustby, Rochester Lourdes

Wing—Tori Peschel, Sauk Centre

Wing—Mia Curtis, Minnehaha

Combo Guard—Ava Hill, Mesabi East

Top underclassmen

Big—Haley Garman, Redwood Valley

Forward—Ellie Hasz, Pine City

Forward—Gianna Kneepkens, Duluth Marshall

Guard—Katie Borowicz, Roseau

Guard—Paige Meyer, Albany

Timberwolves split a pair

3 days, 2 games, 2 overtimes, a win and a loss. That leaves the Timberwolves at 5-4 and out of the playoffs as of today in the west, while in the east 4-6 is good enough. So that's the hill the Timberwolves get to climb, and if this weekend is any indication, it is going to be a tough climb.

The Bad News

I say that because even Friday night's 125-119 win over the 2-8 Warriors was one hell of a grind. Nobody for Golden State could guard Andrew Wiggins who finished with 40 points, and yet the Wolves had to rally from a 90-82 deficit at 9:59, and it was still 108-102 at 2:12 and 110-106 at 0:29.8. That was because, similarly, the Wolves had nobody who could even begin to guard D'Angelo Russell, who finished with 52. And, meanwhile, the Warriors' Willie Cauley-Stein made it tough enough for Karl-Anthony Towns, who finished with 20 points on 7-of-17 FG, with 11 boards but no assists. And the Wolves made just 9-of-36 3s.

Against Denver on Sunday, it was a complete flip-flop, as the defense was OK, but the offense struggled. The Nuggets' massive post, Nikola Jokic, pushed KAT around pretty good, though in the end KAT outscored Jokic 25-20 and outrebounded him 16-6. But, it was a grind for KAT. But, even more than that, Denver's Gary Harris, who some of you may remember playing for Michigan, defended Wiggins like an all-star. Wiggins got to the rim at will against Golden State. Here he got there a few times over the first 3-and-a-half quarters. And, if you think 9-of-36 3s is bad, how about 6-for-45 (13 percent).

So, here the Wolves found themselves down 90-74 with 6:43 to go. For the 2 games, they were outscored 180-156 with 7 to 10 minutes to go, and they almost won twice. How did that happen?

The Good News

How did that happen? Well, the Wolves played hard. They didn't give up. They got knocked down and they got back up and made a couple of great runs. And, oh, yeah, by the way, they played both of these games without point guards Jeff Teague and Shabazz Napier.

Against Golden State, the offense just kept doing what it had been doing except it started making FT.  After 3 quarters, they were 33-for-74 FG and 9-of-16 FT. Wiggins was 10-of-19. After that the Wolves were 15-of-37, but with 11-of-13 FT. Wiggins 7-of-14.

So, here the Wolves did it with offensive boards and with defense and they did it with Robert Covington. Cov finished with 17 points and 11 boards. He had 10 points, 4 boards and 3 steals in the 4th quarter and OT. He started the rally with 3 FT, then followed it with a put-back. Then, with the score 110-108 and inside 10 seconds, Covington got a steal that led to a Wiggins driving layup and OT. In OT, he got another steal at 0:13.9 and 2 FT for the final score of 125-119.

Against Denver, the Wolves closed out regulation on an utterly improbable 16-0 run. The big catalyst here was Gary Harris, who had really shut Wiggins down. But, suddenly Harris seemed to lose his cool, committing his 4th, 5th and 6th fouls in 2 minutes. With Harris out, suddenly Wiggins had some room to move. He scored twice late in the 4th and twice to open OT. Still, it took a Towns 3 at 0:42 to force OT, and it was Covington who scored at 0:26 of OT for a 98-all tie. Jokic hit a tough 18-foot fallaway jumper at 0:02 for the win.

Summing Up

So the Wolves won the game the shoulda won, though they made it harder than necessary by being unable to guard D'Angelo Russell and by shooting 9-of-36 3s; and they lost the game they probably shoulda lost, specifically because Gary Harris was the answer to Andrew Wiggins. Still, they coulda won it if they hadn't shot 6-for-45 3s. 6 is way too few and 45 is way too many.

So the offense isn't good enough, not without Teague anyway. In 2 games, KAT and Wiggins only clearly won 1 out of 4 matchups. They're settling for too many 3s. Can Teague get KAT, especially, better shots? Can Covington make a few more plays?

So, now they're 5-4. So, maybe they're a .500 team. If they do that, Ryan Saunders should be coach of he year. And, if the Wolves were in the east, they'd have a great shot at the post-season. In the west, not so much.

2019-2020 Season Preview: Girls Class AAA

As big a favorite as Hopkins is in Class AAAA, DeLaSalle is almost as big a favorite to repeat in Class AAA. The Islanders are loaded.

Bigs--You've got 4 6-footers or near-6 footers inside, starting with 6-foot senior Nurjei Weems (16 ppg, 9 rebounds); 6-foot Nora Francois, now a junior (12 ppg); and super sophomores Savanna White and Mya Williams. Both are listed at 5-10, but I'm told White is now 6-2. She is the sister of Royce White.

Point Guard--Kiani Lockett, also just a sophomore, 5-foot-6, runs the show. The Hub shows her scoring 4 ppg last year, the Breakdown Guidebook says 10. Who knows? But, she doesn't need to score for DeLaSalle to be successful, though she can and she will.

Combo Guard--Sydney Runsewe, a 5-8 sophomore, scored somewhere between 5 and 9 ppg. She is a capable point guard but will start alongside Lockett.

Shooting Guards--Senior Alexis Cochran-Starr is a streaky 3-point shooter (6 ppg last year) while 5-10 freshman Kennedy Klick is very highly regarded. Leah Dengerud scored 6 ppg last year as a freshman, but is not listed in the Guidebook, so I'm not sure of her status.

So the Islanders have an awesome collection of talent, inside and out. They are perhaps the #2 team in all of Minnesota after Hopkins. Only Wayzata is in the running for #2 along with De. They are a heavy favorite to win Section 4AAA.

The other state tournament entries look to be:

Section 1--Red Wing (#6) or Austin (#7). 4th seed Austin shocked #1 seed Red Wing last year.

Section 2--Marshall (#8) or Waconia (#11).

Section 3--St. Paul Como Park (#3) moves over from Section 4AAA and is a heavy favorite against perennial contender Simley (#10).

Section 5--Becker, last year's runner-up to DeLaSalle (losing 56-40 in the final), is rated #2 again. The Bulldogs return almost everybody led by juniors point guard Julia Bengtson and shooting guard Courtney Nuest, and sophomore wing Adeline Kent.

Section 6--Holy Angels (#4) moves over from Section 4AAA and is the obvious favorite.

Section 7--There are no ranked teams from 7AAA. Hermantown, Princeton, Hibbing and Grand Rapids can all contend.

Section 8--Alexandria (#5) is the obvious favorite as defending section champ Fergus Falls moves down to Class AA.

If all goes according to Hoyle, DeLaSalle will get Holy Angels in the semis again, same as last year; while Becker will get St. Paul Como, whom they defeated 101-86 during the last regular season.

Class AAA All-State

Julia Bengtson, Becker, junior, point guard
Ysareia Chevre, Simley, senior, forward
Jordyn Hilgemann, Marshall, junior, forward
Frankie Vascellero, Holy Angels, junior, shooting guard
Nurjei Weems, DeLaSalle, senior, post

Second 5

Kaylynn Asberry, St. Paul Como Park, sophomore, combo guard
Ella Grove, Alexandria, senior, wing
Kiani Lockett, DeLaSalle, sophomore, point guard
Anna Olson, Monticello, senior, power forward
Patience Williams, Benilde-St. Margaret's, senior, post

2019-2020 Season Preview: Girls Class AAAA

Ok, so, we’ve done the NBA and the Timberwolves. We’ve done the Big 10 and the Gopher men and women. So it’s time to move on to a preview of the high school season, and since the girls start 1^st, I’ll also start 1^st with the girls. Today, 4A, then the other 3 classes, and then the boys.

Now, I could tell you (and I will tell you) that I wrote a lot of the Breakdown Girls Guidebook so I highly recommend it. Go buy a copy for yourself. But I guess I also have to say, then, that the picks you’re going to see here are almost all the same picks that you’ll see there. Now, the Guidebook is 240 pages, so my version here is going to be a lot more concise. (As to the boys, well, I am sure the Boys Guidebook is really good, too, but I don’t know anything about it and so my picks for the boys are going to have nothing to do with the picks you might find in the Guidebook.) So, with that as background, lets begin.

Class AAAA

OK, for starters, Hopkins is going to repeat as state champions and Paige Bueckers is going to be Ms. Basketball. The only suspense is whether the Royals will go unbeaten again. They won the title at 32-0 last year. If they do that, their 64 straight wins would be the 2^nd longest winning streak in Minnesota girls history. (Fosston won 78 in a row from 1999 to 2002). And if they do that, considering they have very possibly the greatest girls player ever in Minnesota, they’ll also go down in history as Minnesota’s greatest team.

So the real battle this year is for 2^nd place. Once again, the #2 rating goes to Wayzata, who has the incredible misfortune of being in Hopkins’ section. Last year Hopkins defeated Wayzata 77-60 in the Section 6AAAA final and Stillwater 74-45 in the state final. Wayzata will be led by junior forward Jenna Johnson and sophomore guard Mara Braun, who will have two and three chances to catch up to the Royals.

Unfortunately for Wayzata, along with the senior Bueckers, Hopkins is led by sophomores Amaya Battle and Maya Nnaji and freshmen Nunu Agara and Taylor Woodson. Nnaji and Battle are rated #1 and #2 in the state among the 2022s, while Agara and Woodson are rated as co-#1 among the 2023s (by Prep Girls Hoops). (Bueckers is of course #1 among the 2020s.) Hopkins could very possibly win the state title this year without Bueckers, and will very likely win the 2021 title without her. So that’s the hill Wayzata and everybody else in AAAA has to climb.

The other climbers (the next dozen) will include:

• Section 1—Farmington (#3)

• Section 2—Chaska (#9) and Eden Prairie  (#12)

• Section 3—Eastview (#13), Lakeville North (#6) and Rosemount (#10)

• Section 4—Stillwater (#7)

• Section 5—Park Center (#4)

• Section 8—Maple Grove (#8) and St. Michael-Albertville (#5)

If all of that pans out, your state tournament semi-finals would find Hopkins vs. St. Michael, and Farmington vs. Park Center.

Players to watch include the top 5 seniors, meaning also your top 5 Ms. Basketball candidates.

Center—Aliza Karlen, Stillwater (going to Marquette)

Forward—Mallory Brake, Hastings (Creighton)

Point Guard—Paige Bueckers, Hopkins (Connecticut)

Combo Guard—Kenzie Kramer, St. Michael-Albertville (Lehigh)

Shooting Guard—Lauren Jensen, Lakeville North (Iowa)

Top 5 Juniors and younger:

Center—Maya Nnaji, Hopkins, sophomore

Forward—Mallory Heyer, Chaska, sophomore

Forward—Jenna Johnson, Wayzata, junior

Point Guard—Mara Braun, Wayzata, sophomore

Shooting Guard—Adalia McKenzie, Park Center, junior

Minnesota Gopher men 85 Cleveland State 50

The new-look Gophers continued to piece together a team that can compete, if not contend, in the Big 10. A scrimmage at Iowa State, an exhibition against Southwest State and, now, an official win over Cleveland State. What does it add up to? The fact is that nobody knows. It may or may not be good news that we should begin to get some real answers this Saturday night, when the Gophers take on Oklahoma at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls.

Still, it's true that so far the Gophers have done what needed to be done. Tonight they shot 54% from the field, including 45% from 3-point range and 64% on 2-pointers, to dispatch an undermanned, overmatched opponent. Gophers Marcus Carr, Gabe Kalscheur and Payton Willis got open looks from the perimeter and made just enough of them to feel good about it. 6-10 sophomore post Daniel Oturu, meanwhile, got the shots he wanted in the lane--mostly 6-8-10 foot jumpers--and made 7-of-8.  He added 10 rebounds and 5 blocked shots and was the Gophers' most effective player, though he did have too many turnovers with 6.

The official MVP was Carr, however. He scored 18 points on 5-of-13 shooting, and added 7 boards and 8 assists. He was +40. Willis scored 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting, and added 4 boards and 8 assists. He was +43. Willis had no turnovers, Carr had 2. Overall, I thought Willis was a little better, though you could just as well call them the Minnesota Twins. They play a lot alike though Carr has the ball in his hands a lot more. I assume that's by design. But, Willis shot it better tonight.

Kalscheur didn't have a great night, making 3-of-10 shots for 9 points. Alihan Demir was much improved at the 4-spot with 10 points but just 2 boards. Still, he is going to be one of the smaller 4s in the Big 10. Off the bench, nobody was great though Jarvis Omersa scored 8 points on 4-of-5 shooting with 4 boards but he, too, is going to be among the smaller 4s in the conference.

Still, overall, the Gophers did what they had to do, dominating a weak opponent, making some 3s and getting the ball to Oturu almost as much as they should. The worst of it was 17 turnovers against a non-existent defense. Still, the starting 5 might almost be a .500 unit in the Big 10, but right now the bench is not competitive at that level. Developing that bench is going to be critical.

Milwaukee Bucks 134 Minnesota Timberwolves 106

Well, I finally got out to see my first Timberwolves game of the year and wouldn't you know the Wolves would be without their horse, er, KAT, Karl-Anthony Towns. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks were not missing their horse, their stud, their probably NBA MVP, Giannis Antetekounmpo. And, so, it was no contest, none whatsoever.

The Wolves simply had nobody who could even come close to guarding Giannis. And, it's funny, I always thought of Giannis as kind of a finesse guy. Not tonight. He just overpowered everybody the Wolves put out there. I don't know if there's a shot chart out there but it seems like he scored half his 34 points on bullrushes from the top of the key down the lane, and it seemed that more often than not the Wolves strategy was to give ground and then finally make contact at the defensive arc under the rim. Well, Giannis would throw an elbow or a shoulder into the defender's chest and create a little space (or sometimes, a lot of space) and make the uncontested layup. I don't remember the officials ever taking exception to his elbows and shoulders and what-not. Welcome to the NBA.

Point guard Eric Bledsoe was also very effective for Milwaukee with 22 points and 6 assists in 23 minutes, and his style of play was similar. His off arm was pretty much always in somebody's mid-section and he too created plenty of space that way to do whatever he wanted.

But, all of that aside, Milwaukee was 28 points better than the Wolves, making 50-of-93 shots (54%) to the Wolves 37-for-103 (36%), especially with their 36-of-54 on 2-pointers (67%) to the Wolves 24-for-60 (40%) on 2s. Milwaukee was also better on 3s but that really didn't matter. The only weakness I saw from the Bucks was 20-of-30 FT compared to the Wolves 19-of-22. Giannis was 6-of-11. Good teams are going to make him shoot more FT and fewer layups.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee's inside defense was as tough as the Wolves' was porous. Early on, the Wolves got to the rim a little bit but were met there by 7-footer Brook Lopez (3 blocks), 7-footer Robin Lopez (1 block), the 6-11 Antetekounmpo and 6-7 Khris Middleton. The result was a lot of missed layups.

And, meanwhile, Wesley Matthews, who is really a terrible player with a minimum of basic skills, somehow went a team and game-leading +29.

So, OK, how about those Timberwolves? Well, did I mention they were without KAT, and they were playing a really, really good team? Yeah? So, it's hard to say very much. But, here are some things I'm comfortable saying despite the small and possibly not very extendable sample of one thrashing by a potential NBA champion:

• Jordan Bell and Noah Vonleh played 30 minutes in the post between them. (Gorgui Dieng was not physical enough to compete against the Bucks, though he scored 10 points with 6 boards and 4 assists in 17 minutes. But he was a team-worst -29.) Bell and Vonleh but up a bit more resistance on defense and combined for 17 points, 12 boards and 4 assists. Bell was -2, Vonleh +3.

• Jeff Teague was good offensively but got totally abused on defense and finished -25. Shabazz Napier was better overall, matching Teague's 10 points and finishing at +5.

• Graham, Covington and Wiggins were not good, finishing -27, -20 and -17. Wiggins at least did some scoring (25).

• Layman and Okogie were MIA this night.

• And for Jarrett Culver, MIA would have been an improvement. As it is, he was only too noticeable for his complete inability and/or unwillingness to guard anybody. There was a complete lack of effort on the defensive end.

• The Wolves best lineup was probably Bell or Vonleh with Napier, and then Wiggins, Covington and maybe me.

But, did I mention, the Wolves were without their best player and were playing a very, very good team with a group of officials who didn't mind if Milwaukee's offensive players cleared out the defense with a shoulder or an elbow before shooting...a layup.

So, as it happens, I plan on seeing the Wolves again on Friday against Golden State and Sunday against Denver. They way they've been playing, other than tonight, Golden State is now an eminently winnable game, while Denver should be very competitive. But, they'll have KAT back and if their opening 4-1 run was for real, they could still be 6-2 come Monday. I will let you know what I see after the KAT comes back.

2019-2020 Season Preview: Gopher Men

You probably don’t recall that I picked the Gopher men to finish 8^th in the Big 10 at 9-11. Like the women (who I picked 7^th at 9-9), I thought that was a little generous. But unlike the women, who are getting some pretty favorable reviews elsewhere, most prognosticators appear to agree with me (when I say I’m being generous), but really disagreeing with me, I should say, because everybody else has got the Gopher men more like 9^th through 13^th in the Big 10. The official pre-season media poll has them 11^th.

Well, it all depends, of course. Doesn’t everybody’s prospect just depend on something. In this case, it all depends on whether the 3 transfers are that good or not, and whether their chemistry among themselves and with the Gophers big 2 returnees is good.

So here’s what we know.

• Daniel Oturu is a horse. He scored 11 ppg with 7 boards and a block and 55% shooting as a freshman. Now, it’s going to get tougher for him with Jordan Murphy gone. Now, he’ll be the #1 focus of the inside defenses. But he’s a year older and wiser and stronger and even with defenses hanging all over him, he’ll at least match last year’s numbers. I have him on my 2^nd all-Big 10 team, though I’ll admit that might be a little generous, too. But, he will be among the top “bigs.” He’ll have good nights and he’ll probably have some nights that aren’t so good. It says here he’ll break even against the other top 7 bigs and win the post matchup against the other 7. 

• Gabe Kalscheur is also an all-Big 10 prospect. He just needs to develop a little more consistency with his shot. He made 42% last year, 41% of 3s. That’s not quite enough daggers yet, but I think he’ll get there. He scored something like 77 points in the 2 all-star games at the end of his senior season, and I said that someday he would do that in the Big 10. Yes, 77 points in 2 games. Not every night, but someday, once. But, right now he is probably a breakeven catch-and-shooter in the Big 10. Half the teams have somebody better, the rest have somebody almost as good.

• Among the other 4 returnees, Michael Hurt is a good, skilled player off the bench. He’s not that big and he’s not that strong, but he is smart, he can pass the ball. He doesn’t hurt you, but he’s not a difference-maker. 

• Jarvis Omersa might contribute someday. Brady Rudrud and Hunt Conroy go hard in practice. 

And here’s what we don’t know.

• A lot is expected of Marcus Carr, the 6-2 sophomore point guard transfer from Pitt. He scored 10 as a freshman in the Big East and led the Panthers with 4 assists per night. You might be surprised to know he scored 9 ppg as a senior in high school. He seemed pretty solid against Southwest State but, hey, are you going to make me say it? Still, 6 assists is a nice start.

• A lot is expected of Payton Willis, the 6-4 junior transfer from Vanderbilt. He scored 5 ppg at Vandy, but 16 as a senior in high school and he was rated as the #22 point guard in his class. People don’t seem to be as high on him as on Carr, and Carr did outscore him 2 years ago 10-5. But against Southwest State, he was better than Carr, scoring 14 points (vs. 12 for Carr) on 2 fewer shots, and he matched Carr’s 6 assists. OK, it’s just one game and, well, you know. Still, he looked good.

• Not so much is expected of Alihan Demir, the 6-9 senior transfer from Drexel, where he went 15-6-3 last year. But, well, you know, don’t make me say it. He struggled against Southwest State. Hey, it’s just one game.

• More is expected of Isaiah Ihnen, the 6-9 freshman from Germany. Even this year, with Ihnen being a good 3 years younger than Demir, more is expected of Ihnen than Demir. But, first, hopefully, he’s going to bounce back from a hand injury really quickly and start getting some game experience at this level, even, well, you know, don’t make me say it.

• And then there’s the 6-5 freshman guard Tre Williams, who like Ihnen is rated a 4-star recruit. He looked pretty good against, well, you know, with 9 points, 6 boards and 2 steals. And, also, 6-0 freshman guard Bryan Greenlee, a 3-star recruit who went 14-4-7-2 as a senior in high school. He also looked OK against Southwest State but, well, you know. The other freshman is 6-10 post Sam Freeman. This is only Sam’s 3^rd year of competitive basketball. He is a project, and he is not going to contribute this year.

But, seriously, what we really don’t know is how good Carr, Willis and Demir really are. The Gophers return a measly 24 ppg from last year. Carr, Willis and Demir represent 30 points from their last college seasons. We think we know that Demir’s 15 ppg at Drexel needs a discount. We’re not sure about Carr and Willis’ 15. I’m thinking no discount, that they’ll do that and better. If not, well, the Gophers will be in trouble.

So the depth chart looks like this.

Center	Forward	Point Guard	Combo Guard	Shooting Guard
Oturu	Ihnen	Carr	Willis	Kalscheur
Alihan	Hurt	Willis	Williams	Williams
	Omersa	Greenlee

The biggest question mark is Ihnen. We haven’t seen him yet. Is he really the Gophers 5^th best player? If not, then Alihan or Hurt or Omersa will have to start, or coach Rick Pitino is looking at a 4-out with Carr, Willis, Williams and Kalscheur, and then there’s almost nobody to come off the bench on the perimeter. So I’d be pretty sure that coach is looking to keep a couple of bigs on the court most of the time. But, it one of them ain’t Ihnen, I don’t know who it is.

But if Ihnen is 2/3 to ¾ as good as Oturu was as a freshman, and if I’m right about Carr and Willis (scoring more than 15 between them), then this is not a bad team. If the top 5 in my depth chart are “not bad,” well, there’s also a little bit of depth behind them. But if Ihnen and Carr and Willis are not all pretty darn competitive Big 10 players, then this will indeed be a long year. 

I had them 8^th at 9-11. If the Gophers have nothing but good luck from here on out, then 10-10. But, again, if the 3 newcomers are not competitive, 6-12 and 5-13 are not out of the question. And, about that point, we just don’t know yet.