Saturday, March 14, 2020

The Final Top 10: Class AA

OK, this is a little tougher than AAAA and AAA, where they had played another round deeper into the tournament and I had more games as guidance to what the final outcome might have been. On the other hand, with the #2, #3 and #4 seeds all losing, there's not too much question about who is #1. So, here goes. My unofficial state champion and #1 in Class AA is....

1. Rochester Lourdes 28-2. Now I admit to being a bit of a skeptic regarding Lourdes. I picked New London to win the tournament, but that wasn't going to happen. And I have to admit that Lourdes was 8-2 against the top 15 teams in AA. Part of that is the good luck to play in Section 1 where you have the greatest concentration of top 15 caliber teams. Others might have gone 8-2 but didn't have the chance to try. (For the record, the 2nd most wins was 5 by Sauk Centre, while the second best W-L percent vs. the top 15 was Providence at 3-1.) So, while I am not blown away by Lourdes roster--obviously, after Alyssa Ustby--there is no compelling reason to pick anybody else at #1.

2. New London-Spicer 29-2. Taking the full season into account, the competition for #2 is Sauk, Pelican and Fergus, but New London beat Sauk and Pelican beat Fergus head to head in the post-season. So that leaves Pelican, and New London played a lot better than Pelican in the 1st round and beat a tougher opponent in the consolation semis. Sauk was 5-4 vs. the top 15, Pelican 2-1, Fergus 3-3, New London just 2-2. But, none of them blew the doors off. So, despite one loss, New London was the best of the 4 in the post-season.

3. Waseca 25-6 and 4-4 vs. the top 15. OK, statistically, Sauk, Pelican and Fergus are still the next best teams, but Waseca beat Pelican so badly that I can't go with Pelican over Waseca. Sauk lost twice. So that leaves Waseca. They lost at Lourdes by 5. New London, Sauk, Pelican and Fergus were not going to win the state title if the tournament had proceeded. Waseca might.

4. Sauk Centre 28-4 and 5-4 vs. the top 15. They shot the ball so terribly against Providence that I think they would beat Providence 3 out of 5. On the other hand, if the tournament had gone ahead, Sauk was not going to win. Providence still could. I get that.

5. Providence 25-6 and 3-1 vs. the top 15. They probably got more out of their talent level at state than any of these teams, well, except Waseca.

6. Pelican Rapids 30-1 and 2-1.

7. Albany 27-3 and 2-3. They beat Sauk to get the #1 seed, then lost to Sauk by 16 in the section final.

8. Duluth Marshall 26-5 but just 1-3 against the top 15, the "1" being in the state QF over New London 60-55.

9. Fergus Falls 25-5 and 3-3. Lost to Pelican by 2 in the section.

10 (tie). Goodhue 26-4 and Lake City 22-6. Lake City lost a QF upset in the section while Goodhue got to the final and had Lourdes beat. But Lake City also beat Goodhue during the regular season.

Honorable Mention--Pine City 26-3, Proctor 23-4.

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