The girls state tournament field is set. The seeds are out tomorrow, but I'll jump the gun with this one preview at least, Class AAAA. So, here I'll not only tell you who's going to win but also what the seeds should be. Not what they will be, but what they should be. (See below for the actual seeds and some comments thereto.)
#1 Hopkins will obviously get the #1 seed at 28-0. They've not looked completely invincible lately in close wins over St. Michael-A. and Wayzata, but they're certainly #1. Their likelihood of winning has been downgraded from 100% to, oh, 98, maybe. They will score a lot of points, but they've also given up a fair number of points this year so you gotta ask yourself, who can score with Hopkins? Anybody?
Cambridge-Isanti will be unseeded and I'll just take a guess that they'll play Hopkins. They were just the #4 seed in their section, but came out of a pretty weak section.
#2 Stillwater. OK, I don't think Stillwater will get the #2 seed with their #7 QRF and 5 losses, but right now I think they should. They've been the second-best team in AAAA the past couple of weeks. They've got a lot of weapons. They've outscored their opponents by the 2nd biggest margin in AAAA at 75-48.
Eden Prairie will be unseeded and so I'll take a guess that they'll draw Stillwater. In any event, EP will be one scary unseeded team, having beaten a very good Chaska team in the 2AAAA finals and by 14 points, no less. Their size is really intimidating, and they could beat anybody including Stillwater.
#3 Park Center (25-4) scores 75 ppg, like Stillwater. I don't think they're quite as good on D as the Ponies. But a Stillwater-Park Center semi (or a Park Center-Eden Prairie semi, for that matter) would be toss-ups.
Lakeville North will be unseeded so I'll take a wild guess that they draw Park Center. Like EP, they are an unseed with a shot at a win but, sure, they're the underdog.
#4 Farmington vs.
#5 St. Michael-Albertville I would say this is a pretty good 4-5 game. It could easily be 2-3 in the semis. Farmington, in particular, with the second-best won-lost record at 27-2, could just as well be a #2 seed, but their leader and point guard Molly Mogenson is out and scorer Paige Kindseth has been hurt. So, they're not the team they were before those 2 got hurt. And, St. Michael, with guards Kenzie Kramer and Tess Johnson could hardly be more dangerous.
Semi-Finals
Hopkins 81 St. Michael-Albertville 71
Stillwater 72 Park Center 66
Finals
Hopkins 77 Stillwater 63
All-Tournament 5
C- Maya Nnaji, Hopkins
F- Adalia McKenzie, Park Center
G- Paige Bueckers, Hopkins, AAAA MVP
G- Alexis Pratt, Stillwater
G- Kenzie Kramer, St. Michael
2nd 5
C- Aliza Karlen, Stillwater
F- Nia Holloway, Eden Prairie
G- Lauren Jensen, Lakeville North
G- Lauren Frost, Park Center
G- Tess Johnson, St. Michael
Actual Seeds--just came out Saturday morning after the above was already published.
Hopkins got #1 and plays Cambridge. Fair enough.
Farmington got #2. They earned it but with the injuries they've had, they're not the 2nd best team at this point. They get Eden Prairie. That's a tough draw for both teams but for unseeded Eden Prairie, it's pretty good. They coulda gotten Hopkins. With Farmington's injuries, this is a tossup or maybe EP should even be a slight fave. Natalie Mazurek vs. Sophie Hart is huge, you could say.
St. Michael-Albertville got #3. They played a tough schedule but, still, with 8 losses, this is a pretty good seed, and they get Lakeville North, which is a favorable draw. I had them at #5 which, with the official seeds, might have gotten them Park Center or Stillwater.
I'm gonna say St. Michael gets out of this bracket to the finals for a 3rd meet up with Hopkins.
Park Center got #4, Stillwater got #5, and they got each other. This is a tough draw for both of them and this will be the best 1st round game. As you saw, I had them seeded #2 and #3. This should have been a semi-final. As you also saw, I had Stillwater 72 Park Center 66 in the semis. Now, one of them will get Hopkins in the semis.
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