Class AA tips off tomorrow (Wed.) at 6 p.m. with 2 games at the Pav and 2 at Williams. Here's what's gonna happen.
Seeds
The 5 seeds are 1) Rochester Lourdes, 2) Sauk Centre, 3) New London-Spicer, 4) Pelican Rapids and 5) Waseca. The unseeds are Concordia, Duluth Marshall and Providence.
So, are seeds meant to reward teams for their regular season and playoff performances? Or, are they supposed to make for the best matchups and to reflect who has the best chance to win? Both, I suppose but, seriously, those are different things. And, everybody knows, well, this year in particular, everybody knows the seeds are meant to reflect something about the season prior to today rather than to try to make the best possible state tournament. Because, otherwise, why would you have semi-final games like Park Center-Stillwater and Simley-Holy Angels in the 1st round?
It's not as egregious in AA, but I would have seeded them 1) Sauk, 2) Pelican, 3) New London, 4) Lourdes and 5) Duluth Marshall if my point was to have the best possible tournament. As it is, you'll probably get my top 4 seeds in the semis anyway but Duluth Marshall and New London seem to have gotten an especially difficult draw, more so than 4 and 5.
Predictions
#1 Lourdes gets Concordia. It's not impossible that we might see an upset right away here. Providence has been playing very well since starting out 0-6 and 1-8. I mean, they're 20-9, or 19-1 in 2020. Lourdes is 16-1 in 2020. So the difference between a #1 seed and an unseed grossly exaggerates the spread between these 2 teams. Still, I like Lourdes 56-54.
#4 Pelican Rapids gets #5 Waseca. Pelican is unbeaten 29-0 and could have been as high as #1. It's true they don't play a particularly tough schedule but they did beat Fergus Falls 43-41 in the section. Waseca won at Rochester Lourdes but then lost 6 times. Still, Waseca would be favored except I don't know if Gus Boyer will be playing. If not or if she's 75 percent, Pelican is the favorite. I'll hedge my bets by calling it close, Pelican 47-46.
#2 Sauk Centre gets Providence. It would be easy to underestimate Providence with their 5 losses, but they're 16-2 in 2020. Both teams lost to Minnehaha, Sauk by 3 in 3OT at the Breakdown Tip-Off, Providence by 6 at Minnehaha. Still, the state tournament is like a home game for Sauk and I'll take the Mainstreeters 60-52.
#3 New London-Spicer gets Duluth Marshall. Now, in my book, Marshall was a seed, so this is more like a semi-final game. Duluth Marshall has 2 of the top players in AA in Gianna Kneepkens and Grace Kirk. Don't know how they left Kneepkens off the coach's all-state team. But, New London is probably the deepest team in AA while Marshall is the top-scoring team with 75 ppg. I would have liked to see them both in the semis. I do have to take New London, say, 64-57.
Semis
Pelican 52 Lourdes 49
New London 55 Sauk 52
Finals
5th--Duluth Marshall 71 Concordia 69
3rd--Sauk 55 Lourdes 54
1st--New London 50 Pelican 47
All-Tournament 5
W- Alyssa Ustby, Rochester Lourdes
W- Tori Peschel, Sauk Centre
PG- Grace Kirk, Duluth Marshall
SG- Gianna Kneepkens, Duluth Marshall
SG- Ivane Tensaie, Concordia
Second 5
F- Greta Tollefson, Pelican Rapids
F- Rachel Breck, Waseca
F- Ava Kraemer, New London-Spicer
PG- C.J. Adamson, Rochester Lourdes
SG- Mackenzie Rich, New London-Spicer
Wild Card- Gus Boyer, Waseca, PG, has been hurt. If she's healthy, Waseca could be in the final.
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