The 1/3 Report: The Surprises and Most Improved Among the Girls

Well, we're at the 1/3 point in the season. The "pre-season" is behind us. Now comes the "regular season," sometimes known as "the grind," and we don't mean Starbuck's. Then comes the "post-season." So what have we learned in the 1st 1/3 of the season that sheds light on what might happen in the 3rd 1/3?

Class AAAA

At the 1/3 point in Class AAAA the surprise teams (in a good way) are Blaine, Centennial, Elk River and Shakopee. Blaine, which has enjoyed precious little success over the past 6-8 years, has in fact moved into the favorite's role in Section 7. Centennial, Elk and Shakopee remain underdogs in their sections but have moved up to #7, #12 and #13 in the rankings after not being ranked in the pre-season.

The 5th mover is Rosemount though they've done almost exactly what was expected, in fact dropping marginally in the rankings from #10 to #11. But, at the same time, they're now the favorite in Section 3 ahead of Lakeville North.

The other section favorites remain the same--Farmington, Chaska, Stllwater, Park Center, Hopkins and St. Michael. Right now I would expect to see Hopkins vs. Stillwater and Farmington vs. Park Center in the state semis, and those are the same 4 that I had in the pre-season. In the final, I'm thinking Hopkins 72 Farmington 61. Paige Bueckers of Hopkins remains the favorite for PoY and for Ms. Basketball, while Blaine's Kayla Bohr is the breakout player right now.

Class AAA

Believe it or not, I don't have a single change in any of the 8 section favorites. I'm picking Como to surprise DeLaSalle in one semi and Red Wing edge Marshall in the other, after Marshall edges Becker 60-59 in the 1st round.

The surprise teams are Mahtomedi and Richfield at #9 and #10 after not being ranked in the pre-season. Coach Danny Woods of Holy Angels told me, "Watch out for Richfield," and I'm like "yeah, yeah." That's why he gets paid the big bucks.

Class AA

OK, here's where it gets interesting right from Section 1. Stewartville lost Erin Lamb to volleyball and they've dropped from #2 statewide out of the top 15. Goodhue, just up from Class A, has already become the favorite with a win at Lake City. Rochester Lourdes is more highly rated in that other poll but I like Goodhue.

In 2AA, Waseca replaces Norwood Young America. NYA has some injuries, while Waseca has a road win at previously unbeaten Winona Cotter.

New London-Spicer and Minnehaha remain favorites in 4 and 5, and Sauk Centre and Fergus up north. But in Section 7AA, Proctor drops from #3 in the state to #3 in the section despite just 1 loss. But the 2018 section champs, Mesabi East, have no losses and Duluth Marshall also has just 1.

Some other movers include unbeaten Holdingford and Pelican Rapids, though neither is a section fave.

At state, I'm seeing right now Fergus over Goodhue and Sauk over Minnehaha in the semis, and Sauk 57 Fergus 56 in the final.

Class A

There are a few changes here. Unbeaten Waterville-Elysian-Morristown takes over from BOLD in 2A, Mayer Lutheran is the new fave over Heritage in 4A, and Warren-Alvarado-Oslo takes over from Red Lake in 8A. Park Christian moves up, though it's not a section favorite, with a win over Ada.

Right now I see Minneota over Walker-HA and WEM over MIB in the state semis, and Minneota 51 WEM 49 to repeat was state champ.

Summary--the biggest surprise teams so far:

1. Richfield--unbeaten after winning just 5 games a year ago.

2. Blaine--hard to believe it, but the Bengals will challenge for a state tournament berth. Kayla Bohr is the breakout player.

3. Waterville-EM--they know how to win in volleyball, why not hoops?

4. Mayer Lutheran--will they be better than Heritage come March?

5. Goodhue--1st year in AA but more than ready to compete.

6. Mahtomedi--deep, young, talented team but they are still in DeLaSalle's section.

7. Holdingford--unheralded and unbeaten.

8. Waseca--they've been good but still have just 1 state tournament berth ever.

9. Mesabi East--you knew they were good but can they beat Proctor and Duluth Marshall in March?

10. Rosemount--now favored to get by both Eastview and Lakeville North in Section 3AAAA.