What have we learned in 3 days of girls state tournament basketball? 1) In the big school classes, youth rules. 2) In the small school classes, never bet against teams from southeastern Minnesota. 3) The seed-makers have a pretty fair idea of what is what. 4) It ain't over til it's over, except for Hopkins. Every one of Friday's semi-final winners came from behind in the late going. Stillwater and DeLaSalle did the same on Thursday.
On Saturday, we should see 3 pretty close games and, then, there's Hopkins. I should wait until tomorrow to say it but, what the hell. Is this the best team ever in Minnesota girls high school ball? If Hopkins is indeed victorious Saturday night, it will be Hopkins' and coach Brian Cosgriff's 7th state title and their very first to finish undefeated.
8 p.m. Hopkins #1 31-0 vs. Stillwater #2 28-2
Way back at the beginning of the season I said that if you want to win a state title, you've got to go through Hopkins to get there. For the 5th straight year and the 8th time in 9 years, Hopkins will be playing at 8:00 on Saturday night. Each of the past 3 years, they were favored to win it, but instead they lost to Minnetonka, then undefeated Elk River and undefeated Eastview. This year, Hopkins is the undefeated team remaining in the hunt.
And, there's a reason for that. Her name is Paige Bueckers, and she's generally regarded as the best player ever to come out of Minnesota as well as the #1 college prospect in the class of 2020 in the country. In 2 tournament games, she has scored 57 points with 8 boards, 11 assists, 5 blocked shots and 6 steals. Not only that, but she guarded the opponent's best guard--Lauren Jensen and Taylor McAuley--and basically shut them both down most of the way.
In this case, Bueckers could guard Stillwater's 5-5 sophomore point guard, Alexis Pratt, who beats opponents by getting to the rim, or she could guard 5-10 senior Sara Scalia, who came into the tournament with 2,500 career points and scholarship to play basketball at the University of Minnesota. Either one of them can beat you, but whichever one Bueckers does not guard will be guarded with almost equal effectiveness by Hopkins guard Maya Battle. That will be a good 4-on-4 battle to see, but I think the advantage goes to Hopkins.
Inside Hopkins has 6-3 freshman post Maya Nnaji and 5-8 senior power forward Dlayla Chakolis, who can and will score inside and defend very aggressively. Stillwater counters with juniors Aliza Karlen, 6-2, and Grace Cote, 6-0, both of whom can and do step outside and hit the 3.
Bottom line: Both teams have a lot of weapons, but nobody defends like Hopkins. Hopkins 79 Stillwater 67.
6 p.m. DeLaSalle #1 23-5 vs. Becker #3 27-4
Both were #2 seeds in their section but DeLaSalle was #1 in QRF, so their section title was not a surprise. Becker's was only a mild surprise. There were enough upsets in the AAA sections that these 2 #2s could both advance to the final with only another mild surprise. That came as Becker defeated #2 seed Cooper 68-66 in the semi-final, after surviving Marshall 68-67 in the 1st round.
All of that should make De a solid favorite but Becker has a look of destiny, with one senior, 3 sophomores and a freshman in the starting lineup. It all starts with sophomore point guard Julia Bengtson who pushes, pushes, pushes. She turns it over but mostly she makes good things happen. In 2 games she has 17 turnovers, but 44 points, 12 boards, 4 assists and 5 boards.
Sophomore Courtney Nuest has 28 points and 5 3s in 2 games, freshman Adeline Kent 21 points.
Becker will be severely undersized inside against DeLaSalle's 4 6-footers, led by junior Nurjei Weems, who scored 18 against Holy Angels. But Becker was undersized against Cooper and found compensation elsewhere. DeLaSalle's guards, meanwhile, are a little bit undersized--and young, with 2 9th grade starters--but Kiani Lockett and Sydney Runsewe do it all for the Islanders.
Bottom line: Both teams shoot the 3. De also shoots 2s. DeLaSalle 64 Becker 60.
2 p.m. Caledonia #4 27-4 vs. Minnehaha #3 24-6
Caledonia made it 3 come-from-behind winners in 3 Friday semi-finals after trailing Roseau by 5 at the half and as many as 8 in the 2nd half. But Caledonia held Katie Borowicz down, almost literally, knocking her to the floor repeatedly. She finished with just 9 points, less than half her average, and undoubtedly more bruises than that. I mean, it literally got to be a running gag. Elbow to the head. Katie on the floor. No call. Elbow to the head. Katie on the floor. No call. Elbow...never mind. You got the picture.
But, hand it to Caledonia. The elbows and stuff were inadvertent. The balanced scoring was not. Senior guard Heidi Boldaun scored 21, senior guard Ashley Schroeder 12 and senior guard Kaitlin Conniff 11, all picking up slack for senior guard Katie Tornstrom, who was also held to about half her average with 10.
They'll face Minnehaha who will feature a balanced offense led by junior guard Mia Curtis, and seniors Taytum Rhodes, a guard, and forwards Nevaeh Galloway and Avery New. Caledonia showed more balance in the semi than I knew they had, frankly, and, equally, frankly, Minnehaha's is just a little cavalier, making the showy play rather than the fundamentally sound play. Somehow, I just can't quick believe that that is winning basketball. As a result, the vastly more athletic RedHawks also had to come from behind to beat the unseeded, ten-time losers from Albany. After finishing at 10:30 p.m., Albany will play tomorrow at 1 p.m.
Bottom line: Fundamentals win. Caledonia 65 Minnehaha 62.
12 noon. #1 Minneota 29-1 vs. #2 Goodhue 26-6
Here are 2 teams that snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the semis. Heritage led Minneota 41-33 but Abby Hennen took over and Minneota won the stretch 22-9 and the game 55-50. Menahga led Goodhue 37-28, but Goodhue picked up the defensive intensity and Menahga did not respond. Goodhue won the stretch 19-6 and the game 47-43.
Goodhue has Lexi Lodermeier inside and Minnesota has Lydia Sussner. Lodermeier is 6-3, Sussner 5-10. Still, I think that's a standoff. On the perimeter, Minneota has Hennen and her sister Morgan Hennen plus Lizzy Gillingham and Morgan Kockelman. Kockelman is the defensive stopper who held Taylie Scott to 6 points for Heritage, while Gillingham is the one who goes inside. She had 19 points and 9 boards on Thursday, 9-and-8 on Friday. Abby Hennen is the motor.
For Goodhue, on the perimeter, Goodhue has Kate Opsahl, Arianna Thomforde and Joslyn Carlson, all of whom can score. And, Goodhue has the best perimeter defense in all of Class A, though I think Minneota will handle that a lot better than Menahga did.
If it's in the 40s, Goodhue wins. If it's in the 60s, Minneota wins. If it's in the 50s, it's a toss-up. Bottom line: It will be in the 50s and Minneota shoots FT a little better. Minneota 55 Goodhue 54.
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