Monday, March 18, 2019

Boys Class AAAA State Tourney Preview

Class 4A features 2 teams each from the Lake, NW Suburban and South Suburban conferences and one each from the Sub East and Mississippi 8. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky that we ended up with only one conference matchup in the 1st round. That one features #1 seed Park Center vs. unseeded Maple Grove. Park Center, which finished 18-1 to win the NWS West, won at Maple Grove 76-63 in December and 65-58 at home in February. The Crimson finished 15-4 in the conference.

Luckily, Eden Prairie does not play Hopkins and Eastview does not play Lakeville North. Former conference rivals EP and LN did renew their rivalry this year, however, in a game won by EP at LN 66-62 in December. North turned things around in a hurry, however, and lost only 4 games while EP somehow managed to lose 9 times. Both lost to Hopkins, though EP got a split with the Royals by winning 77-70 in the final game of the regular season. EP also beat state tourney entries Cambridge, Eastview and East Ridge but lost to Park Center.

Overall, here is how the 8 state tournament entries fared among themselves during the regular season.

Park Center 3-0
Eden Prairie 5-2
East Ridge 2-1
Hopkins 2-2
Lakeville North 2-2
Cambridge 0-1
Maple Grove 0-2
Eastview 0-4

Here's how they were seeded.

#1 Park Center 28-1, won 19 straight, outscored opponents an average of 71-59.
#2 Hopkins 24-4, won just 2 straight coming into state, won by an average of 81-61.
#3 East Ridge 27-2, won 24 straight, won by an average of 78-55.
#4 Lakeville North 25-4, won 13 straight, 75-58.
#5 Eden Prairie 20-9, won 6 straight, 72-63 but 65-45 in section.

Maple Grove 23-6, won 4 straight, 66-52.
Eastview 18-11, won 5 straight, 72-68 but scored 85 ppg in the section.
Cambrige-Isanti 17-12, won 4 straight, 66-52.

1st Round Matchups--Target Center, Wednesday, March 20

10 a.m. #1 Park Center vs. Maple Grove. Tough matchup for both teams, really. Third times a charm? Three on a match? Park Center is a tough, athletic team but plays maybe just a beat slower than most and thus held opponents to 58 ppg and just 52 ppg in the section. They also pound the boards. 6-10 junior post Dain Dainja leads the way at 15 points, 7 boards and 4 steals per game. 6-5 Detavious Frierson does it all including 14 ppg and 53 percent shooting, and behind him they're 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2. (4 of their top 6 are juniors.) They will be a very tough out, and yet their lack of the explosive scoring ability may enable opponents to stay in the game with them as in their early win over Eden Prairie 49-46 and their 57-55 OT win over Champlin in the section final.

Maple Grove will be smaller and might not jump as high as Park Center, but they improved by 6 points relative to Park Center between December and February, and that's before you factor in the home court. If they improve by another 6 now, and you factor in the neutral court, they're a winner. All 3 of their double-digit scorers are seniors. Their chances depend on playing efficiently, protecting the ball and optimizing possessions, which is what seniors do, right?

Bottom line: Park Center 61 Maple Grove 60

12 noon #4 Lakeville North vs. #5 Eden Prairie. The Eagles have as good of talent as anybody in this field, but basically they're all juniors, and I mean ALL. Is that why they lost 9 times? I don't know. Only 2 teams in the field gave up more than the 63 points EP's opponents were able to average, but the Eagles only gave up 45 ppg in the section. If their defense is that much improved, they're going to be a very tough out. Point guard Drake Dobbs, and forwards John Henry, Cole Christenson and Austin Andrews all average in double figures and, adding 6-6 post Ariel Bland the mix, they've got nice size (6-6, 6-6, 6-5, 6-5). They're not always the most efficient offense, however.

North is their alter ego, well, except their pretty much the same size. But, they shoot it better and are more efficient on offense without getting as many easy transition baskets as the Eagles. But Tyler Wahl and Jack Rusch, in particular, shoot over 50 percent. But, despite good size, they're not a great rebounding team. It will be almost all seniors against Eden Prairie's juniors and, wait, what was it that seniors do?

Bottom line: Eden Prairie is probably more of a threat to go all the way than Lakeville is, but in this matchup, Lakeville North wins 64-61.

2 p.m. #2 Hopkins vs. unseeded Cambrige-Isanti. Cambridge coach Mike McDonald goes against nephew and Hopkins assistant Brock Tesdeahl. Cambridge was just 14-12 in the regular season and is the biggest dark horse in the tournament. But they scored 77 points in the regular season and 74 in the section. Only Hopkins and East Ridge scored more--Hopkins scored 81 but gave up 10 fewer points than Cambridge.

Hopkins forward 6-10 senior Zeke Nnaji is a different maker with 25 ppg and 9 boards. 6-5 junior guard Kerwin Walton went 17-3-4. But this is not a great Hopkins team. "We don't defend like we have (in past years)," coach Ken Novak, Jr., said. But the Royals will be too athletic for Cambridge unless 6-0 junior point guard Henry Abraham goes completely nuts. He is the #2 highest scorer in the AAAA field after Nnaji (25 ppg to 23) and the Bluejackets will need all of that and more from Abraham to pull an upset.

Bottom line: Hopkins 82 Cambridge 63.

4 p.m. #3 East Ridge vs. Eastview. Eastview can score (72 ppg in the regular season, 85 in the section) but they also give up more points than anyone in the field besides Cambridge. Still, they got size (6-10 Steve Crowl, 6-6, 6-5). East Ridge is more athletic, however, with brothers Courtney (6-7 senior forward) and Kendall (6-6 junior guard) Brown. Add 6-10 junior Ben Carlson to the mix and this team can score and defend. Their 7 man rotation shot almost 49 percent, and only Maple Grove gave up fewer points this year.

Bottom line: East Ridge 70 Eastview 64.

Championship Semi-Finals Target Center Thursday March 21

6 p.m. Park Center 64 Lakeville North 62.

8 p.m. Hopkins 68 East Ridge 66.

Consolation Semi-Finals Concordia St. Paul Thursday March 21

10 a.m. Eden Prairie 69 Maple Grove 65.

12 noon. Eastview 72 Cambridge 70.

Consolation Finals at Concordia St. Paul 

5th Place 6 p.m. Friday March 22 Eden Prairie 67 Eastview 61

3rd Place 4 p.m. Saturday March 23 East Ridge 67 Lakeville North 65.

Championship Game at Target Center Saturday March 23 Park Center 61 Hopkins 60.

All-Tournament Team

Park Center Detavious Frierson, Dain Dainja

Hopkins Zeke Nnaji, Kerwin Walton

East Ridge Kendall Brown, Courtney Brown

Lakeville North Tyler Wahl, Jack Rusch

Eden Prairie Austin Andrews

Eastview 

Cambridge Henry Abraham

Maple Grove









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