Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Boys Class AA State Tournament Preview

2-time defending champion Minnehaha is the overwhelming favorite to three-peat in Class AA. Fortunately, next year they'll be moving up into Class AAA. This is in fact doubly nice in that Minnehaha won't repeat in AA for the 4th time and it is almost as likely that DeLaSalle, then, won't repeat in AAA for the 8th time in 9 years.

But, for now, you can pretty much pencil in Minnehaha. There is nobody on the same level, period. So, who's got a shot at 2nd place? How about #2 seed Mpls. North? Or, #3 seed Perham? Or, the winner of #4 Melrose vs. #5 Lake City? Well, guess what? #4 and #5 can't finish 2nd unless they beat Minnehaha, then lost to Mpls. North or Perham. Ain't gonna happen.

It's also worth noting that 7 of the 8 state tournament entries were #1 seeds in their section, so this is as strong of a field as you could really expect. (There are 39 losses in the AAAA field, 42 in AAA, and 44 in AA, if you must know. Redwood Valley, with 11 losses, brings down the average. And, if you must also know, they are the one team that was not a #1 seed to make it this far. They were a #4 sub-section seed. Not just #4, but #4 in half a section.

Bottom line: There's a normal distribution of talent here which, in the era of open enrollment, means that Minnehaha should run away with it. Here are the entries.

Section 1--Lake City 26-2, #5 QRF, #5 seed, 66-48 average score, 61-38 in sections, 18 straight wins
Section 2--St. Peter 22-6, #17, unseeded, 71-60, 74-65, 4 straight wins
Section 3--Redwood Valley 16-11, #27, unseeded, 75-68, 76-61, 4 straight wins
Section 4--Minnehaha 26-2, #1, #1, 76-54, 66-44, 20 straight wins
Section 5--Mpls. North 21-9, #2, #2, 73-57, 62-48, 8 straight wins
Section 6--Melrose 26-4, #4, #4, 65-54, 68-53, 18 straight wins
Section 7--Esko 21-9, #9, unseeded, 71-58, 70-50, 9 straight wins
Section 8--Perham 29-1, #3, 75-51, 67-41, 28 straight wins

The Matchups Wednesday March 20

6 p.m. Target Center--Minnehaha vs. St. Peter

Minnehaha will have very little trouble with St. Peter. Jalen Suggs is regarded as one of the top 2020s in the nation and 7-footer Chet Holmgren is perhaps Minnesota's top 2022. Minnehaha 81 St. Peter 50.

8 p.m. Target Center--Melrose vs. Lake City

Lake City's 1-2 punch of juniors Nathan Heise and Reid Gastner, both 6-4, both guards though Heise is a little more of a perimeter guy and Gastner goes inside a little more. They score 37 ppg with 17 boards between them. And there's a pretty good supporting cast there as well. They can grind it out, which is probably what it's going to take here. Melrose counters with senior guard Preston Keaveney.  Oddly, Melrose has 4 guys scoring in double figures for a total of 65, while the Lakers have the 2 double digit scorers but still manage to eke out 68. Does that mean Lake City is a better scoring team or that Melrose is harder to stop? We'll see. Lake City 58 Melrose 54.

6 p.m. Williams Arena--Mpls. North vs. Esko

North scored 73 ppg behind senior guards Eli Campbell and Nasir El-Amin, and they've also got some size in 6-7 soph Davon Townley. Esko counters with 3 6-0 guards with big guys who go 6-3, 6-4. Still, the question for Esko will be their quickness. Mpls. North 68 Esko 56.

8 p.m. Williams Arena--Perham vs. Redwood Valley

Perham has been here before, Redwood has not. The Redwood girls got here as a #4 seed and lost twice. The Redwood boys got here as a #4 seed. 'Nuf sed. Perham has 5 guys who average in double figures. Perham 67 Redwood Valley 50.

Consolation Semis Thursday Concordia

6 p.m.  Melrose 64 St. Peter 57.

8 p.m. Esko 67 Redwood Valley 60.

Championship Semis Thursday Target Center

6 p.m. Minnehaha 62 Lake City 56.

8 p.m. Perham 66 Mpls. North 61.

Consolation Finals Concordia

5th Place Friday 2 p.m. Esko 63 Melrose 61.

3rd Place Saturday 12 noon. Lake City 57 Mpls. North 55

Championship Final Saturday Target Center

2 p.m. Perham 61 Minnehaha 58.

All-Tournament Team

Perham Jenson Beachy, Josh Jeziorski

Minnehaha Jalen Suggs, Chet Holmgren

Lake City Nathan Heise, Reid Gastner

Mpls. North Eli Campbell

Esko Trevor Spindler

Melrose Preston Keaveny

St. Peter 

Redwood Valley Cole Woodford



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